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April 15, 2008It’s too easy
April 15, 2008Free Falling Or Just Stumbling Out Of The Gate?
Everyone has their own definition of when the major league baseball season is truly underway and when it is just getting warmed up. Conventional wisdom says that by Memorial Day you are who you are. The Indians have played just 13 games so far. 13 out of 162, or 8.02% of their games have been played. Now is no time to panic….but it’s also no reason to turn a blind eye to what’s going on. This team has major problems. The Tigers, believed to be the Indians’ chief rival this season have absolutely sputtered out of the gate, sitting at 3-10 on the season. Good news for the Indians, right? Well, sort of. It’s good for the Indians, but the Indians, at 5-8 so far, are a mere 2 games in front of the Tigers. Something has to give.
So what’s going on here? What, exactly, is this team’s problem? Good question. I don’t think anyone truly knows how to explain it. How do you explain last year’s Cy Young winner being 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA? How do you explain 3 regular players hitting in the .100’s and another hitting exactly .200? How do you explain the most dominant relief pitcher in baseball last year having a 5.14 ERA and giving up 11 hits in just 7.0 IP?
The Indians have scored only 58 runs and given up 66. The Indians are hitting .241 as a team, good for 28th in the bigs. They are 18th in OBP and dead last in SLG. The Tribe are 1-6 against lefty starters. The pitching hasn’t been any better. The team ERA is 4.76, which is good for 26th in the majors. They have given up the 7th most runs in the majors and opponents are hitting .264 (18th in MLB) off Indians pitching. Using Pythagorean theorem methods to predict expected wins, the Indians should win 71 games this year playing the way they have. They’ve actually been worse than expected, though, as they are actually on pace to win only 62 games. So what needs to change to turn all of this around? Lets take a look…
THE GOOD
- Ryan Garko (.318/.444/.477, 1 HR, 7 RBI) – Arguably the MVP of the team so far. His power is down so far, but he’s been one of the few players able to consistently get hits with runners in scoring position. He is 7th in the AL in OBP, 7th in BB, 8th in Batting Wins, and 5th in Times On Base. Ryan has also played decently in the field, as he is errorless so far at first and hovering around league average in range factor. Ryan had a solid year last year for the Tribe and is showing no signs of slowing down this year.
- Grady Sizemore (.314/.419/.412, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 SB) – On pace for 45 SB and 100 RBI, while also being on pace to lower his SO total for the first time in 4 seasons, Grady has been exceptional so far. He is 10th in the AL in SB, 2nd in singles, 7th in runs created, and 2nd in times on base. Grady’s defense in CF has been stellar as always. So far, Grady is really bouncing back nicely from what could be considered a down year last year.
- Travis Hafner (.275/.362/.431, 2 HR, 10 RBI) – I had a hard time putting Hafner on this list and not the “mediocre” list, but he’s here because he was so bad last year (by Hafner standards), that any little improvement is good to see. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down, that much is true. But Hafner is on pace for 25 HR and 125 RBI, a nice improvement from last year. And if he can just get his plate discipline back, the batting average and on base percentages will come back with it. I’m not ready to say Hafner is “back” to his old self, but he’s definitely showing some improvement.
- Cliff Lee (2-0, 0.61 ERA, 0.477 WHIP, 12 K/1 BB) – Dynamite. Lights out. You can’t say enough about Cliff Lee’s rebound so far. Cliff struggled with his command last year, and it showed in the numbers and on the field. This year, his 12-1 K/BB ratio is astounding. Cliff has rediscovered how much easier this game is when you’re not walking the lead off hitter every inning. Cliff is first in the AL in ERA, 1st in WHIP, 1st in Hits/9IP, 2nd in BB/9IP, first in K/BB, and 8th in K/9IP.
- Jake Westbrook (1-1, 2.38 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, 12K/4BB) – Jake has done a great job carrying over his spring success into the regular season. His 1-1 record is really unfair, as he truly deserves to be 3-0 with 3 quality starts to begin the season. Jake’s sinking stuff has been as good as always, but his new changeup is giving him an extra weapon and his improved K rates are proof of that.
- Jorge Julio (7.0 IP, 5 H, 4K, 3BB, 2.57 ERA) – The best of a bad lot? Maybe. But in a bullpen so desperate for consistency, Julio has arguably been the best. Julio and Kobayashi are the 2 most likely candidates to replace Borowski, and Julio and Lewis are the only relievers giving up less than 1 H per inning so far.
- Masa Kobayashi (4.1 IP, 6 H, 3K, 1 BB, 2.02 ERA) – He hasn’t been called upon a lot, but when he has, Kobayashi has done his job for the most part.
THE MEDIOCRE
- Victor Martinez (.333/.333/.370, 0 HR, 3 RBI) – To be fair, Victor has been fighting an injury for much of the season. The batting average is great, but Victor is giving the team precious little production outside of isolated base hits. Zero walks and zero HRs. It should come back to Victor once he’s fully healthy, but if this injury nags him all year, Victor could be in for a long, subpar season.
- Jhonny Peralta (.255/.300/.511, 3 HR, 5 RBI) – Subpar batting average and a pathetic OBP, but a massive slugging percentage. That pretty much defines mediocrity. Always a streaky hitter, when he’s on he’s pure dynamite, but when he’s off, you want to tear your hair out asking how this guy can be a major league hitter. Jhonny has at least been a source of power for the Indians this season so far.
- Fausto Carmona (1-1, 2.20 ERA, 1.653 WHIP, 8K/17BB) – I really wanted to put Fausto on the ‘good’ list, because he’s been virtually unhittable all year long. His 34-4 Groundball-to-Flyout ratio is unreal. The problem has been his control. His K/BB ratio is pathetic. The good news is that there’s no reason to suspect Fausto won’t get it figured out and get his control back. And when he does, look out American League. Because his stuff has been out of this world this year.
- Jensen Lewis (7.2 IP, 3.52 ERA, 6 H, 7K, 2BB) – Perhaps he’s being judged a bit harshly based on his first appearance of the year. But he’s still given up runs in 2 of his 5 appearances this year. But in a couple extended appearances lately, he’s looked much better. Jensen should be fine this year.
THE ATROCIOUS
- Franklin Gutierrez (.158/.220/.289, 1 HR, 4 RBI) – At least he looked good on Opening Day. Too bad he hasn’t looked good since. The guy can’t hit a curveball to save his life. He also can’t lay off a curveball in the dirt. He hasn’t seen a fastball in 10 games. Until Cerrano learns to hit the curve, it’s hard to see how he can contribute to this team. Anyone have any chickens to sacrifice?
- Asdrubal Cabrera (.200/.250/.244, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R) – A disappointment of epic proportions thus far. He often looks lost at the plate, and a guy who seemed to be full of confidence last year really looks to be pressing these days.
- Casey Blake (.132/.214/.184, 0 HR, 6 RBI) – A third baseman with a .184 slugging percentage? Yikes. Casey is the ultimate professional, and you won’t hear him whine about his struggles, but that won’t stop me from whining about it. The worst part is that his backup, Andy Marte, is hitting .200. Not a lot of daylight on this one. We’ve seen Casey struggle in the past, though, and he will often go on a huge hot streak when he busts out of it….so, yeah, look out for that.
- Jason Michaels (.103/.156/.138, 0 HR, 2 RBI) – 3 Hits. Get him out of here.
- David Dellucci (.250/.438/..375, 0 HR, 3 RBI) – 3 RBI. Get him out of here.
- C.C. Sabathia (0-2, 11.57 ERA, 2.357 WHIP, 13k, 9BB) – $20 million per year? Dream on C.C. Over 2 baserunners per inning? No wonder that ERA is so high. Sabathia’s problem is he just can’t get guys out if he doesn’t strike them out. Opponents are hitting .387 off Sabathia.
- Joe Borowski – I don’t even need to bother with stats on this one.
- Rafael Perez (4.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4K, 3 BB, 8.31 ERA) – Every time he goes out there it looks like batting practice. Last season his sinking stuff was electric. This year, opponents stand there and watch it go in the dirt rather than swing at it. Give them credit for watching film and adjusting. Now it’s Rafael’s turn to make an adjustment.
- Rafael Betancourt (7.0 IP, 11 H, 4 ER, 7k, 1BB, 5.14 ERA) – Perhaps he should be on the ‘mediocre’ list, but he was just so good last year that to see him pitch like this makes no sense, and thus he’s on the ‘atrocious’ list. I thought he was beginning to turn things around before last night. It will be interesting to see how he rebounds. Ultimately, I still have confidence in him and I think he will turn this thing around.
- Paul Byrd (0-2, 11.05 ERA, 2.318 WHIP, 2K, 4BB) – Byrd has always been a pitcher with a seemingly high WHIP, but like a great magician, he always had a knack for getting out of trouble. Not this year. This year he’s letting the guys score like it’s nobody’s business. And after walking only 28 batters all last season, he’s already walked 1/7th of that total this year. If he can’t get things straightened out quickly, the Tribe will have to look at giving Laffey or Sowers a shot.
- Eric Wedge (5-8, .241 batting average, 4.46 runs per game, allowing 5.07 runs per game) – In 9 of the 13 games this year, the Indians have scored runs in only 1 or 2 of the 9 innings, including a stretch of 6 straight games this year. The offense is struggling as the Indians are 28th in batting average and 16th in runs scored. The team is STRUGGLING to score runs. And so with runners on 1st and 2nd and Dellucci at the plate with 0 outs, does Wedge have him bunt? Noooooo. He lets him swing away. It makes sense, you know, because when you’re team is struggling to score and your lineup is full of sub-.200 hitters, why would you sacrifice that production? Nah, let ’em swing away. And of course Dellucci hits into a double play, followed by a Pronk Popup Special, and the Indians are out of the inning. Great managing.
THE CONCLUSION
Like I said, it’s early. That’s the best news of all. With less than 10% of the games played, there’s plenty of time to turn this season around. But you can’t just say ‘lets turn this season around’. You have to do something about it. Hopefully Wedger will start playing more small ball. Let guys try stealing, use the sac bunt, manufacture some runs. This team needs it. The Indians need to get better at showing the same plate discipline they showed last year. If the pitchers are adjusting by pounding the strike zone early in the count, then the hitters need to adjust and start being more aggressive with that first pitch. Follow Sizemore’s lead and attack that first pitch. Grady is hitting .500 when putting the first pitch in play.
When it comes to pitching, the Indians addressed one concern today when they put Borowski on the DL. How the bullpen is handled will be key in how the rest of the year goes. According to the Plain Dealer, Rafael Betancourt is likely to get first shot at the closers role, which I think is a mistake. I truly feel that either Masa Kobayashi or Jorge Julio are best fit for that role. For the starters, CC’s leash is certainly longer than Paul Byrd’s, but CC needs to get his head together. He claimed he put off negotiations because he didn’t want to be distracted this year, but honestly, he looks distracted. He needs to either go back to the negotiating table or else find a way to put it out of his mind. The Indians cannot win the division with Sabathia pitching this poorly. Even if he’s not going to have another Cy Young season, he needs to at least keep the Indians in games and give them a chance to win.
I’m not totally hitting the panic button just yet, but I’ll freely admit I have moved my hand over the button. I’ll be watching the next 5 series’ very closely. If this team doesn’t start to show some signs of pulling out of this haze quickly, we could all be in for a very long and heartbreaking season.
4 Comments
first, it’s great to hear that u are NOT pushing the panic button yet. i think that u and i have had enough conversations to know that feel like i do on this subject. winning the next 3 series puts us right back where we need to be.
with that being said, there are definate concerns. like u stated above, j-mike $ delucci need to go. and before that even, there is not a chance in hell that i ever let delucci or jmike EVER hit 2 again….put carroll there when asdrubal has the day off. and seriously, pinch hitting david freaking delucci last night??? i know that fransisco isn’t exactly lighting it up in buffalo, but for God sakes, he’s gotta be better than what we have now. thats all i have to say about that.
cc will get it together and so will fausto. i think we all agree on that. the question now becomes with the pitching, what the hell is up with byrd? is it just time to hang ’em up? if it is, lets do it sooner than later. with sowers and laffey just waiting in the wings, there’s no need to “wait it out”.
i think i speak for this entire site when i say, we can’t take another heartbreaking season from this team. we win 93 three years agon and don’t even get in and then last year have the best record in the majors (tied) only to lose a 3-1 lead in the alcs. i know i can’t take it anymore, how about you guys? (or gals)
Not pushing the panic button just yet. If Borowski was shelved like we should have done we could easily be 7-6. Not a sparkling start but good enough to keep you right in the thick of the race.
Too bad it took two crushing blown saves to finally land him on the DL.
I’m just glad the guy with all of the multi-colored hats is back…
For real though, I think we’ll turn things around. We really need to stop giving up the long-ball; currently worst in the league. I’m not as worried about our bats as I am the arms, but I have a feeling that it’ll all come together soon…
Byrd and Victor looked pretty good last night after this article was written. Julio stunk up the joint.
CC is clearly distracted, and probably pretty fired up about how they signed Carmona. If I were him, I would start pitching with some semblance of a big league pitcher in hopes of getting back to the bargaining table. he has pitched so poorly going back to the playoffs, that he’s not going to get the money he thinks he’s going to get on the free agent market.
No team in in the majors is going to sign him to Johan Santana money after his performance in the playoffs.
To me, signing Carmona is a clear signal to CC that the Indians aren’t going to sign him.
His lack of focus when pitching and now this distraction is costing the guy millions.
He crumbled like a house of cards in the playoffs where the mental toughness of a starting pitcher comes out. In reality, he probably doesn’t have the mentality, mental toughness, and work ethic that it takes to be an ace.
Take a look at all the top starting pitchers in MLB over the past 30 years. They all have awesome work ethics and would never come into camp overweight year in, year out.
As for Jorge julio, he would be the last guy I would look to in the pen to close out games. He was a horrible closer for the Marlins last year to the point that they got rid of him after 10 games.
9.1 innings pitched
18 hits
14 runs
13 earned runs
11 walks
6 K
12.54 ERA
3.11 WHIP
.400 Batting Average Against.
Julio’s “best” year was in 2003 for the Orioles:
36 saves
61.2 innings Pitched
60 hits
36 runs
30 earned runs
10 HR
34 walks
52 K
4.38 ERA
1.52 WHIP
.256 Batting average against
He’s wasn’t exactly a lights out closer that year and has never been really a reliable closing option in his career.
One more gripe, can Jhonny Peralta ever field a ground ball to his right?