The Sabathia Paradox

Trading Cy Young Winner C.C. Sabathia Could Be The Key To Saving This Season

par·a·dox [par–uh-doks]

–noun

1. a statement or proposition that seems self-contradictory or absurd but in reality expresses a possible truth.
2. the implication that trading C.C. Sabathia is necessary for the Indians to salvage their 2008 season

Heading into this season, friends and family and other people who knew that I was an Indians fan asked me the same question over and over again: Should the Indians trade C.C. Sabathia since they “probably” couldn’t re-sign him after this year? And everytime I was asked the question, I would initially chuckle a little bit at the absurdity of the question, and then shortly after the feeling of belittling humor turned to angry annoyance. So what if the Indians can’t re-sign him, I would say. This is their year to make their Championship run. They cannot win the World Series without Sabathia. How can this team win now if they trade away the Big Fella for prospects? Finally, as a last resort, I would give them this much: “Fine,” I would reason, “if the Indians are 10 games out of first by the All-Star break, then maybe they can consider trading Sabathia.” As if that could even possibly happen.

Well here we are now, still a month and a half away from the All-Star Break, but as we awoke this morning, the Indians were already 5.5 games behind the White Sox. The Indians are 5 games below .500. They simply cannot hit the baseball. Only 2 teams in the American League have scored fewer runs than the Tribe. Last night the Indians stranded 13 runners, the 2nd game in a row in which more than 10 runners were left on base. Memorial Day is routinely considered the first real check point in the major league season. Well, Memorial Day has come and gone, and it’s quite clear that this roster, as currently put together, is not good enough to win. This team needs some upgrades.

Which brings us to C.C. Sabathia. I already mentioned one internal change that I feel should happen….Josh Barfield should be brought up to take Asdrubal Cabrera’s spot in the lineup. But the only other guy still in Buffalo that I think could help would be Shin-Soo Choo. I’m not sure SS JorgeVelandia is for real (he’s 33 years old), but his .829 OPS in all minors is certainly intriguing. Perhaps Bronson Sardinha could be called up at some point as well, but none of these guys feel like they’re going to be the answer to getting this offense going. Instead, it feels like a major shakeup is needed, and perhaps it’s time to consider seeing what kind of return Sabathia could bring.

It’s a lot like economics, laws of supply and demand, etc. The Indians are loaded with pitching and they need hitting. They need to find a team that has hitting and needs pitching. And it’s possible that Sabathia could bring the highest return, other than Fausto Carmona, who’s not going anywhere. Young guys like Adam Miller and Aaron Laffey could be intriguing for teams, but Miller’s injury history and the lack of confidence in Laffey being for real by some analysts could make teams hesitant to trade a lot for them. Same with Cliff Lee. How many people really think Cliff Lee can pitch like this for 4 more years?

Sabathia, on the other hand, is a known commodity. After a rocky first 4 starts to this season, Sabathia has corrected some minor delivery flaws and has regained his Cy Young form. In his 7 starts since his horrendous beginning, Sabathia has thrown 50.1 innings, has one complete game shutout, has given up 41 hits, 9 runs, 11 walks, and 56 strikeouts. His ERA in those 7 starts is 1.61. He’s holding opponents to a .602 OPS. Unfortunately, over those 7 starts, he is only 3-3, and that is due to this pathetic offense. He has lowered his season ERA from 13.50 to 4.74 in those 7 starts. C.C. is back, but unfortunately his Cy Young presence is not enough to help this team win. So it’s time for the Indians to consider whether trading him will help this team win.

We’ve been getting a lot of lip service out of the Indians’ ogranization lately about how this “can’t go on like this” and how “changes are going to have to be tried” and how Mark Shapiro is “going to have to talk to every team about trades” and how Eric Wedge “isn’t afraid to try anything at this point” and blah blah blah. It’s all talk. Nothing has really changed. The Indians called up Francisco and Aubrey. That’s it. Switching around the batting order doesn’t really matter when none of your players can hit anyway. If the Indians want to win in 2008, and they still can with some good hitters, then it’s time to go make something happen. The Indians simply cannot wait around until the trade deadline. By then, it could be too late. Shake things up. Take a chance. Dangle some players out there on the trade market. Pitching like the Indians are getting this season doesn’t come around very often. It’s reminiscent of stories I’ve heard about the days of Feller, Lemon, and Bearden, in 1948 when the Tribe last won the World Series. All 3 of those guys had sub-3.60 ERA’s and 2 of them (Lemon and Bearden) won 20 games with Feller notching 19 wins.

The difference? Well, for starters, that team got 100+ RBI from 3 infielders (Joe Gordon, Ken Keltner, and Lou Boudreau) plus quality hitting from the likes of Larry Doby, Dale Mitchell, Eddie Robinson, and Jim Hegan. For comparison, this year’s 3B, 2B, and SS are on pace to give the Indians 91 RBI, 41 RBI, and 57 RBI, respectively. Not a single player on this roster is on pace to knock in 100 runs. The Indians can choose to continue to sit around and say all the right things and hope and pray that by some miracle all of the sudden this team remembers how to hit again, or the front office can be proactive and go out and make some real changes and try to spark life into this team. My vote is for the latter. And once upon a time, I thought it was ludicrous to think that trading Sabathia might make this team better, but now, it is a paradox that I believe holds some real truth behind it.