Oh Look, More Sabathia Trade Rumors!
June 25, 2008Stars & Stripes Wahoo: Yea, or Nay?
June 25, 2008As the NBA Draft is drawing near, we take one last look at the Cavaliers’ prospects for draft night. We’ve already focused plenty on what we think the Cavaliers should do, but now it’s time to focus on what we think they will do. Also, please join us tomorrow night as I will be live blogging for the NBA Draft, so come join us and follow along as we breakdown the draft in realtime and discuss how each pick impacts the Cavaliers.
Before I even begin, please allow me to draw attention again to Scott’s post this morning regarding Brian Windhorst. Faithful readers have heard me mention time and time again that Brian is my favorite Cleveland sports writer. Period. Writing about and following the draft without being able to read Brian’s articles is unfortunate, but more important is his health, and so we send all our prayers and positive thoughts his way. Get well soon, Brian.
Now, on to the draft. Chris Douglas-Roberts remains the player I most covet in this draft, hence the photo to the right serving as a visual cue to Danny Ferry (because surely he’s reading, right??). Unfortunately (or, fortunately in all reality), I am not the one who will be making the pick for the Cavaliers tomorrow night. Despite my repeated calls, emails, text messages, faxes, and homemade videos begging them to let me pick for them, the Cavs are still going to let GM Danny Ferry make the pick. So what’s it going to be? Who’s he going to take? Well, to begin with, lets see who some other really smart writers think he’s going to take, and then we’ll breakdown what we think is most likely to happen Thursday night.
The Mock Drafts
The Site: ESPN.com
The Writer: Chad Ford
The Pick: Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown
The Analysis: The Cavs need help inside and are hoping that Koufos falls to them. If he doesn’t, they’ll have a tough choice to make. Of the players projected to be available, Hibbert is the most ready to step in and help right away. Mario Chalmers is another possibility here, if available.
The Site: SI.com
The Writer: Ian Thomsen
The Pick: Nick Batum, G/F, France
The Analysis: A flashy swingman who defends and can provide scoring to help balance the floor around LeBron James.
The Site: NBA.com
The Writer: Josh Cohen
The Pick: Ryan Anderson, F, Cal
The Analysis: The Cavaliers were basically a 3-point make away from upsetting the eventual NBA champion Celtics in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal series. Although Daniel Gibson, Cleveland’s most proficient 3-point threat, didn’t play in that game due to an ankle injury, it was apparent that the Cavs need another consistent 3-point option. The player to draft is Ryan Anderson, a 6-foot-10 forward who can hit long-range shots and utilize his length to outwork his opponents. Anderson led the Pac-10 in scoring this past season and became the first Cal player to compile at least 600 points and 300 rebounds in one season. I expect him to flourish alongside LeBron James and capitalize off of Cleveland’s outstanding ability to grab offensive rebounds for second-chance opportunities.
The Site: Ridiculous Upside
The Writer: Yours Truly
The Pick: Courtney Lee, G/F, Western Kentucky
The Analysis: The Cavaliers find themselves stuck a bit between a rock and a hard place. They need to win, and they need to win now. It would be nice to find a piece with the #19 pick that can help immediately, but if you look at recent history, it’s tough to find guys picked at 19 or lower who made an immediate impact on their teams. Most people feel that Danny Ferry is going to take a F/C Project. With Anderson Varejao on the last year of his deal and unlikely to consider re-signing, and with the ever-aging Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Joe Smith, and Ben Wallace on their last legs, the Cavs are looking razor thin in the frontcourt 3 years from now. So it would possibly make sense to roll the dice on a big man with future potential (Kosta Koufos, JaVale McGee, etc).
But that’s not what the Cavaliers need to do with this pick. They can’t afford to look 3 years down the road. They need to focus on this year and the next. Two guys who would have been perfect for Cleveland (Brandon Rush and Chris Douglas-Roberts) are off the board already. Another guy who might have been an interesting pick here was Chase Budinger, but he elected to go back to Arizona. Because I refuse to take a Big Man Project, I feel like the best options here are Mario Chalmers or Courtney Lee.
While we liked some of the things we saw from Delonte West in his short stint with the Cavaliers this year, we’re not sold on him being the PG of the future. He’s really more of a combo guard who would probably be best suited for coming off the bench. As much as I love the toughness, experience, and lights-out shooting ability of Mario Chalmers, my fear is that he is bound to be a combo guard best suited for coming off the bench….just like Delonte West. So with this pick, we’re taking Courtney Lee. I absolutely love his offensive game, and that’s what the Cavaliers need…offense, offense, offense. He is an ample long range shooter (40.1% for his collegiate career), but where he is at his best is in his mid-range game, which is something the Cavaliers SORELY need. He can help take some of the offensive pressure and load off of LeBron, and while some have questioned Lee’s defense, his strong fundamentals will allow Mike Brown to instill the proper defensive technique in him. Lee improved his FG% every season in college, showing his willingness to work for improvement, something that will be important if he’s going to eventually become a compatible component (in other words, suitable role player) that the Cavaliers will need him to be.
The Site: Draft Express
The Pick: Kosta Koufos, F/C, Ohio State
The Site: CollegeHoops
The Pick: Mario Chalmers, G, Kansas
The Site: NBC Sports
The Pick: Jason Thompson, F, Rider
The Analysis: Thompson played at a low mid-major, Rider, but he had 24 against N.C. State and 24 against Kansas State. He plays hard and harder. Watching him in the conference tournament you could see he has some room to get better, even though he is already a senior. When he gets on an NBA strength program for those legs, and has another big man inside to help with the load, you can see him stick for a while. LeBron is getting older; this is a mature help.
The Site: HoopsWorld
The Pick: Donte Green, F, Syracuse
The Site: Pro Basketball News
The Writer: Tony Mejia
The Pick: Brandon Rush, G/F, Kansas
The Analysis: He showed off his versatility and an increased maturity level in bouncing back from a torn ACL that threatened to jeopardize his pro aspirations. The Cavs have plenty of holes to shore up and could do worse adding a multi-faceted swingman who should be able to contribute immediately.
The Site: RealGM
The Writer: Christopher Reina
The Pick: J.J. Hickson, F, NC State
The Analysis: Danny Ferry has the best player in the game under however old Kobe is, so in theory he has time to develop talent, yet the threat of LeBron leaving if they’re not in an absolute win-now mode is a real one and must be taken seriously. But I think Ferry has to go for a home run in this draft with the 19th slot and Hickson could be their guy. He is a classic power forward and can create high percentage scoring opportunities that came all too difficult to the Cavaliers last season.
The Site: The Sporting News
The Writer: Nathaniel Friedman
The Pick: Chris Douglas-Roberts, G/F, Memphis
The Analysis: Because if you were LeBron James, which remaining player would you actually be excited about stepping onto the court with next season?
There you have it. Eleven different mock drafts and eleven different picks. How is this even possible? There is absolutely no consensus whatsoever out there about what the Cavs should do and will do with this #19 pick tomorrow night. There’s a number of different reasons for this. One is the tight lips of the Cavs organization. Nobody seems to have the first clue what’s going on inside Danny Ferry’s head. Another reason is that the Cavaliers have so many needs. They could definitely use a true PG. They for sure need some depth in the front court, at both PF and C. They need a scoring option on the wing to go with LeBron. Everyone prioritizes these needs differently, and thus everyone has a different idea on who they should take. Another reason for the lack of conformity on picks is the depth of this draft. There are a lot of really good players with a lot of upside in this draft. Just taking “the best guy available” isn’t so cut and dry when there are a handful of guys you can make arguments for selecting this low in the draft that have the potential to someday be a solid role player.
In all honesty, though, you probably already know there’s uncertainty. What you want are firm answers. What is Danny Ferry going to do with this pick? Well, I can’t 100% help you there because I don’t know Danny Ferry and I have no access to anyone inside the Cavaliers organization. What I can do, though, is give you my best explanation as to who I think Danny Ferry is going to take and why I think that way.
The thing you have to realize about the guys in the Cavaliers’ organization from top to bottom, from Dan Gilbert to Danny Ferry to Mike Brown to LeBron James, is that they are all stubborn. Maybe not all of them are stubborn to a fault, but they are all at least stubborn to the point of intrigue. And in Danny Ferry’s case, I think this helps us predict what his next move will be. I think everyone in the Cavs organization, while still mindful of LeBron’s free agency date, is somewhat confident that LeBron is not leaving. We can argue until we’re blue in the face as to whether or not LeBron is staying or leaving, but the point is that Danny Ferry has made it clear that he is going to operate this franchise under the assumption he is staying. What this means, is that he’s not going to necessarily pick a guy who is NBA-ready right now. He is going to pick the guy he thinks will be of most value and will fill the biggest need 2 to 3 years from now.
This, unfortunately, eliminates Chris Douglas-Roberts. If we are to believe certain reports, the Cavs liked Brandon Rush a lot, but Rush is skyrocketing up draft boards and there’s no chance he’s available at #19. The Cavs could still be looking to trade up, but I think that seems unlikely. The only reason to trade up would be if you felt Rush was a guy who could step in and start from day one and make some kind of immediate impact on the team. I just don’t see that fitting into Ferry’s philosophy for this team. And unless Danny Ferry is doing a great job of throwing up smokescreens, I don’t think CDR is in the Cavs plans. I just don’t have a good feeling about that one.
I think the Cavaliers pick is going to come down to Roy Hibbert, Mario Chalmers, J.J. Hickson, and Jason Thompson. If Marreese Speights happens to fall, he would be in consideration as well. I keep hearing that Ferry likes Chalmers, but I never hear it from reputable sources. So with that being said, I think Ferry is taking a big man. I really do.
Roy Hibbert is the safe pick. His draft stock has remained pretty steady throughout this whole process. Two guys who have been shooting up draft boards based on potential, though, are Hickson and Thompson. Hickson is the guy with the most upside of all 3 big men. If he ever realizes his potential, Hickson is going to be a vicious bruiser who will be a tough defender, tough in the paint, and able to score inside. Jason Thompson is somewhere in the middle between Hibbert and Hickson. Thompson put up solid numbers at Rider and has plenty of experience, much like Hibbert. He also is believed to have some room to develop, much like Hickson. This is why I think the Cavaliers pick tomorrow night is going to be Jason Thompson. It won’t be a sexy pick, it won’t be popular amongst the fans at all, and it will be a bit of a gutsy pick. But this is where Ferry’s stubbornness comes into play. He’s not going to concern himself with making a pick the fans will be excited about. He’s going to pick a solid big man with just enough upside to make him an intriguing prospect. He’s going to pick a player who he thinks will be a solid contributor on this team 3 years from now when AV is long gone, Joe Smith has moved on, Z is ready to retire, and Ben Wallace is finally gone.
A lot can still happen in the next 30 hours leading up to the Draft, and the Cavs might still be able to pull off some kind of a trade, possibly for Michael Redd, that would change the entire equation and make all of this irrelevant. But as of right now, today, in my heart I think Danny Ferry is going to select Rider’s Jason Thompson in tomorrow night’s NBA Draft. Stay tuned.
6 Comments
I would be ok with Thompson, I would rather have Hickson and would realllly like to have Chalmers despite our glaring need for a young big man, but Thompson would be ok with me. The only guys I really don’t want are Speights, because he has a terrible work ethic and a bad attitude, Hibbert, because I think he has a very low ceiling, and Koufas, because I think he is too soft. I guess I hate Batum too. But most of the other guys I think will be good role players in this league at the worst, which is not a bad thing to get at 19. Fans probably won’t like whoever Ferry picks no matter what, so I hope he is ready for that
I think Batum is fairly high on the Cavs’ radar, but even though he was cleared, I think the heart-problem fears will be a factor for him.
I would be ok with Speights, because I think he’s the real deal in terms of natural talent. I want no part of Koufos or Hibbert. I would live with Thompson, Hickson, and Speights. In a perfect world, though, I would love any one of Rush, CDR, Lee, or Chalmers.
But you’re dead right…..Ferry will face criticism no matter who he picks because the fact remains, we’re not going to get a stud with the #19 pick. The nice thing about guys like Speights, Thompson, and Hickson is that the fans’ expectations would be lower for them.
Spot on, Ricky. The fact that there is no consensus (and this is Cleveland) will likely not bode well for fan reaction.
Can anyone access Vegas odds for who we’ll take?
I like how so many people are saying that Ferry sucks at drafting….when he has only had 1 first round pick. Sure, Shannon Brown was a bust, but he was picked at 25 (or somewhere around there). Doesn’t he get credit for drafting Daniel Gibson?
Ian Thompson now has the Cavs taking Hickson from NC State, with Rush going to the Wiz one pick ahead.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/ian_thomsen/06/25/mock.draft.2/index.html
If Rush is available that late I really hope the Cavs make a big push to try and get him.
I like Rush. I think Hibbert is likely to be the pick. But Ryan Anderson sounds interesting.