More Staph Infection for the Browns
June 11, 2008LeCharles Bentley Interview
June 11, 2008
In order to get back into the playoffs, the Cleveland Indians have some serious work ahead of them, and the White Sox won’t be making it easy.
It’s the question on everyone’s mind, whether they want to admit it or not. Can the Indians get back into contention this season, or is it over? After watching the team limp through the schedule for the first 2.5 months of the season, it’s easy to see why this question is so prudent.
Popular sentiment amongst both the Indians organization and the Indians fan base is that catching the White Sox is still a realistic possiblity and as such, the Indians should hold off on trying to deal any of their players. I desperately want to buy into this line of thinking. There’s just one problem…..catching the White Sox is going to be an incredibly difficult task.
The Indians are currently 5 games below .500 at 30-35, while the White Sox are 10 games over .500 at 37-27. That’s a difference of 7.5 games that the Indians need to make up. Obviously teams have overcome much bigger deficits before, and it’s easy for us to think that the White Sox are due to fade and start playing worse baseball. What’s not as obvious, though, is just how good the White Sox really are, and the fact that they are already playing worse baseball than their run differential says they should be.
Currently the White Sox are playing at a .578 clip. According to their run differential, though, their expected win pct is .623, which would put their current record at 40-24. It would also give them the best record in the American League. So what will it take for the Indians to catch the White Sox? The Indians have 97 games left in the season. If the White Sox ever play up to their run differential, they finish at 101-61. In order for the Indians to go 102-60, they would have to go 72-25 (.742) for the rest of the year. But lets just assume the White Sox keep going about the same pace they are now, and thus finish at 94-68. The Indians would need to go 65-32 (.670) over the last 97 games to pass them. Even in our most lavish fantasies it’s hard to see the Indians playing that well over the rest of this season. So the Indians best bet is for the White Sox to fall back to them.
If the White Sox were to slow down and only win 89 games this year, the Indians would then need to go 60-37 (.619) to end up at 90-72 on the season. I know it’s easy to doubt the White Sox and to think they could fall down to the 85-90 win range, but I see no reason to suspect they will play significantly worse over the remainder of the season. The White Sox are 3rd in the AL in runs scored, and even more remarkably, they are first in the AL is runs allowed. We think the Indians have done a great job with their pitching and defense, and they have, but the White Sox have allowed 34 fewer runs this year than the Indians have. The White Sox are balanced, confident, and have a run differential that is going to make it extremely difficult for the Tribe to climb the hill overtake them. In sports you can never say never, but my hope and faith in this season is hanging by a thread, and every game it gets harder and harder to see how this team can truly come back.
14 Comments
Wow, the way you broke it down like that just freaked me out a bit. I like to just imagaine that “hey, all we need to do is win 7 in a row and they have to lose 7 in a row.” Though that is insane, it sits better in my mind for some reason.
You guys take sports way to seriously! Just kidding. Nice job on blog consolidation. It’s you guys over swerbs blurbs anytime (you haven’t joined with them yet have you?)
A lot of your argument hinges on run differential. Obviously, having a positive run differential should help a team’s cause, but I wonder how strong, historically, the correlation between run differential and place in the standings has been. A team that wins by high margins but loses more often in closer games could still have a healthy run differential.
Still, even if were to turn out that there is no correlation to speak of (which would be surprising to say the least), I agree that it will be extremely hard to catch up. It would require a lot of good luck for us and bad luck for them (and middling to bad luck for Minnesota). Those are a lot of conditions to ask to be satisfied, so if I had to bet, I’d say we’re not gonna do it. I’d love to turn out to be wrong, of course.
So far this year the White Sox have used 26 players. In case you didn’t know a major league roster has 25 people on it. That means the Sox have made 1 roster move. Let’s just say that the law of averages applies and for the rest of the season the Indians only have to make one roster move and the white sox lose their 2 and 3 starters, their closer, and their DH. and they have to shuffle their outfielders and play 6 different players there. Plus go through a handul of bullpen guys. Feel better about the Indians chances?
…i’m pretty sure i hate joe borowski. preeety sure about it.
…yup. yup, i just checked… its confirmed. i hate him. sigh.
If I were Shapiro, I’d start exploring trades, but give it 2 more weeks. If we haven’t made up significant ground in the standings, I’d start selling.
Let’s say for the next 10 seconds we suspend disbelief and say the Tribe wins the division. They have no chance of beating the Angels or Boston (assuming neither implode.) So, have the yard sale and let’s all wait for next year, again.
My plan of writing this article in order to force the White Sox to start losing is off to a great success!
Uh, excellent analysis; the statistics are beautiful, but weird things happen in this game. One funky week of play that sees the Sox drop 5 or 6 games and the Tribe put up 7 straight wins would make you have to completely rewrite your analysis.
Hey Phil, lets make a bet. How much do you want to bet there is not one week this season in which the Indians win 7 straight and the White Sox lose 6?
Nobody said the Indians CAN’T catch the White Sox. I’m just writing about the trends and showing analytically how difficult it would be for them to win this division.
RockKing: Thanks for your follow-up. That sounds interesting, but it is not the bet implied by my comments. I did not argue for the statistical PROBABILITY that there would be such a funky week. The week as I described it was only an example of something weird that could happen. The Indians losing 7 straight and the Sox winning 5 or 6 games would be equally weird, and it would also require you to rewrite your statistical analysis; this time, in a way that would make the Tribe’s chances at taking the division appear even smaller. The only claim implied by my comments was that something that would require you to rethink the whole statistical probability COULD happen. That is not even to say that it is LIKELY to happen. As for the probability of it happening; I don’t know… such an analysis is beyond my means. I see no reason for betting on something that is so beyond my grasp, even if it is not a question of money but just a friendly challenge.
You would agree, wouldn’t you, that one week from now, your statistical analysis COULD require a total rethink?
No, I don’t have to re-think my analysis. In order for the Indians to win 90 games this year, they have to play .620 baseball for the rest of the season. No matter what happens in this next week, that number remains the same.
I’m not analyzing what the division race will look like one month from now, let alone one week from now. All I can do is write about what’s going on RIGHT NOW. And right now, the Indians have an uphill climb in order to catch the White Sox. I mean, come on, ANYTHING we write on this site could potentially turn out to be dramatically wrong. We can’t predict the future. I’m not going to second guess what I write, because I feel like what I write is accurate at the time it is written. When this article was written, the Tribe was 5 games under .500 and trailed the White Sox by 7.5 games. Nothing that happens for the rest of this season will change where the Indians were on the day I wrote this, so my analysis will stand.
OK. Point well taken.
I would only add that, even if the Tribe is back by 9 games with ten left to play in the season, the fan in me says ‘damn the odds, let’s get ’em boys!’
The fan in me says the same thing Phil. But the writer in me has an obligation to try to look at things a bit more objectively. And that’s all I’m doing. It doesn’t decrease how strong my rooting interests in the team are.