The Browns Will Win If…
October 17, 2008Get This Guy Another Extension!
October 17, 2008The Cleveland Cavaliers played their first preseason game at home on October 7th against the Toronto Raptors and their first regular season game is October 28th against the Celtics in Boston. That gives us a less than a month until the season is officially underway, and so we will use the next week or two previewing the NBA season making predictions that will surely not even be remotely close to coming true.
First up is the Western Conference, and next we look at the Southwest Division.
1. New Orleans Hornets
Players Lost:
-Chris Andersen, F (FA – Denver)
-Jannero Pargo, G (FA – Dynamo Moscow, Russia)
Players Added:
-Jared Jordan, G (FA)
-James Posey, F (FA – Boston)
-Devin Brown, G (FA – Cleveland)
-Sean Marks, F (FA – Phoenix)
-Courtney Sims, C (FA)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Chris Paul (21.1 pts, 11.6 assists, 2.71 steals)
SG Morris Peterson (8.0 pts, 0.9 assists, 0.62 steals)
SF Peja Stojakovic (16.4 pts, 4.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists)
PF David West (20.6 pts, 8.9 rebounds, 1.3 blocks)
C Tyson Chandler (11.8 pts, 11.7 rebounds, 1.06 blocks)
Bench:
Julian Wright, PF
James Posey, SF
Devin Brown, SG
Melvin Ely, C
Mike James, PG
Rasual Butler, SG
Ryan Bowen, PF
Hilton Armstrong, C
Sean Marks, PF
Analysis:
Last year was a breakout season in all ways for the Hornets. A breakout year for Chris Paul, a breakout year for David West, a breakout year for Tyson Chadler, and on and on and on. The Hornets were 56-26 and were fighting for the top seed in the West all year long. The Hornets played great on both sides of the basketball, as they were 9th in scoring and 5th in points against. With little turnover in their roster, the Hornets are primed to make another run at the Western Conference crown this season. CP3 is going to be an MVP candidate all year long, as he is easily one of the 5 best players in the game. A big key for the Hornets will be the health of their big men. David West has had injury problems in the past, but last season he was able to show what he’s fully capable of when healthy. Julian Wright is a capable backup, but there’s not much depth behind him in the frontcourt. The Hornets bench was one of their most underrated strengths last season, and this season that should continue to be the casethis year as the Hornets were able to add James Posey and Devin Brown, two really solid bench players. The Hornets are stuck in arguably the toughest division in the NBA as the Hornets, Mavericks, Rockets, and Spurs will all be playoff caliber teams fighting for position in the West. This division will probably prevent them from contending for the #1 seed in the West, and despite the fact I am predicting their record to be exactly the same as last year, I still think this year’s Hornets team will be even better than last year’s.
Projected Record: 56-26 (3rd in the Western Conference)
Key New Orleans Hornets Blogs:
Hornets247.com
At The Hive
Hornets Hype
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Sat, Nov 1st – Away – FSNOH
2. Fri, Jan 16th – Home – ESPN
2. Houston Rockets
Players Lost:
-Steve Novak, F (Trade – LA Clippers)
-Bobby Jackson, G (Trade – Sacramento)
-Donte Green, F (Trade – Sacramento)
-Sean Singletary, G (Trade – Phoenix)
-Patrick Ewing Jr, F (Trade – New York)
Players Added:
-Joey Dorsey, F (Draft)
-Maarty Luenen, F (Draft)
-Brent Barry, G (FA – San Antonio)
-Von Wafer, G (FA – Portland)
-Marcus Campbell, C (FA – D-League)
-Ron Artest, F (Trade – Sacramento)
-D.J. Strawberry, G (Trade – Phoenix)
-Frederic Weis (Trade – New York)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Rafer Alston (13.1 pts, 5.3 assists, 1.32 steals)
SG Tracy McGrady (21.6 pts, 5.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists)
SF Ron Artest (20.5 pts, 5.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists)
PF Luis Scola (10.3 pts, 6.4 rebounds, 0.23 blocks)
C Yao Ming (22.0 pts, 10.8 rebounds, 2.02 blocks)
Bench:
Carl Landry, PF
Brent Barry, SG
Luther Head, SG
Aaron Brooks, PG
Shane Battier, SF
Chuck Hayes, PF
Donte Green, PF
Mike Harris, SF
Steve Francis, SG
D.J. Strawberry, SG
Analysis:
If there’s any team I fear I’m underrating this year, it’s the Houston Rockets. Two years ago, when Yao Ming lead the Rockets in points per game, it broke a T-Mac string of 6 straight years of leading his teams in that category. It’s not that T-Mac got worse, it’s that Ming is that good. Together, they form one of the absolute best 1-2 punches in the NBA. The Rockets were 55-27 last year and were 22nd in scoring and 4th in points against. This year, they added Ron Artest and Brent Barry to their roster. Battier will now move from the starting slot to the bench, combining with Barry, Landry, and Head to give the Rockets one of the best benches in the NBA. This is a team that looks on paper like they will be fighting with the Lakers and Jazz for the West title. So why do I have them 2nd in their division and 4th in the West? 2 reasons, really. One, I don’t like Ron Artest’s game at all. He’s a truly great defensive player, but I think his offensive style is very overrated. On paper this looks like a starting lineup that could boast 3 players averaging over 20 points per game, but if Artest is averaging over 20 in Houston, then either Ming or T-Mac is going to see a decline in scoring. Artest is gets criminally too few assists for a small forward because he loves to hold on to the ball once he gets it and force up shots himself. He will frequently grind a team’s pace to a halt. The second reason I have the Rockets ranked so low is that I don’t feel like they did anything to address their lack of scoring. The Rockets will be right there with Boston and San Antonio in team defense, but they still don’t have a reliable point guard to initiate the offense, and I think Artest will hurt the offense if they go to him too often. Yao Ming must stay healthy as well, since the Rockets don’t have a backup center with Dikembe Mutombo still unsigned. The sky is the limit for this Rockets team, but if the chemistry isn’t right, the Rockets could find themselves stuck in the middle of the Western Conference playoff seedings.
Projected Record: 55-27 (4th in the Western Conference)
Key Houston Rockets Blogs:
The Dream Shake
Rockets Addicts
Globetrotter
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Tue, Dec 23rd – Home – FSNOH
2. Thu, Feb 26th – Away – TNT
3. San Antonio Spurs
Players Lost:
-Brent Barry, G (FA – Houston)
-Salim Stoudamire, G (FA – Atlanta)
Players Added:
-George Hill, G (Draft)
-Malik Hairston, G (Draft)
-James Gist, F (Draft)
-Roger Mason, G (FA – Washington)
-Anthony Tolliver (FA)
-Desmon Farmer, G (FA)
-Charles Gaines (FA – Europe)
-Devin Green. G (FA)
-Darryl Watkins, C (FA)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Tony Parker (18.8 pts, 6.0 assists, 0.8 steals)
SG Manu Ginobili (19.5 pts, 4.5 assists, 1.47 steals)
SF Bruce Bowen (6.0 pts, 2.9 rebounds, 1.1 assists)
PF Tim Duncan (19.3 pts, 11.3 rebounds, 1.95 blocks)
C Fabricio Oberto (4.8 pts, 5.2 rebounds, 0.24 blocks)
Bench:
Kurt Thomas, C
Roger Mason, SG
Matt Bonner, PF
Ime Udoka, SF
Michael Finley, SG
Jacque Vaughn, PG
George Hill, PG
Anthony Tolliver, PF
Ian Mahinmi, C
Analysis:
Where there’s a Duncan, there’s a way. The model of the Cavaliers that Mike Brown brought from San Antonio really makes a lot of sense when you compare it to the way San Antonio has operated over the last decade. You start with a transcendant superstar (Duncan/LeBron), surround him with 2 other above average starters (Parker & Ginobili/Ilgauskas & Williams), add a defensive specialist (Bowen/Wallace), and then your 5th guy is the irrelevant starter who really has no business being an NBA starter (Oberto/Szczerbiak). Both the Spurs and the Cavaliers have benches full of medium talent-maximum effort mix-and-match guys. Both teams rely on their suffocating defense in the playoffs to win series and both teams struggle on offense, particularly when the top 3 aren’t doing the scoring. There are, however, some key differences between the Cavaliers and the Spurs. First of all, the Spurs have been better than the Cavaliers because behind their defensive specialist, their superstar was also an elite defender. Secondly, the Spurs are stuck in the West in an absolutely brutal division while the Cavaliers are in the East and in a pretty mediocre division. Finally, the Spurs are an aging team and have not added a significant young player since Tony Parker. The pickup of Roger Mason was a really nice pickup for them and he’s a guy who fits in to their system perfectly. As much as I want to write off the Spurs because of their age and injuries, I can’t do it as long as Tim Duncan is playing. The Spurs days as Western Conference elite power may be gone, but this is still a solid playoff team that is capable of beating anyone in the playoffs if the top teams don’t bring their “A” Game.
Projected Record: 53-29 (5th in the Western Conference)
Key San Antonio Spurs Blogs:
Pounding The Rock
48 Minutes Of Hell
Project Spurs
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Fri, Feb 27th – Away – ESPN
2. Sun, Apr 5th – Home – ABC
4. Dallas Mavericks
Players Lost:
-Malik Allen, F (FA – Milwaukee)
-Juwan Howard, F (FA – Denver)
-Tyronn Lue, G (FA – Milwaukee)
-Jamaal Magloire, C (FA – Miami)
Players Added:
-Shan Foster, G (Draft)
-DeSagana Diop, C (FA – New Jersey)
-Gerald Green, G (FA)
-James Singleton, F (FA)
-Keith McLeod, G (FA)
-Reyshawn Terry, F (FA – Greece)
-Charles Rhodes (FA)
-JuJuan Smith (FA)
-Cheyne Gadson, G (FA – D-League)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Jason Kidd (9.9 pts, 9,5 assists, 2.14 steals)
SG Jason Terry (15.5 pts, 3.2 assists, 1.07 steals)
SF Josh Howard (19.9 pts, 7.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists)
PF Dirk Nowitzki (23.6 pts, 8.6 rebounds, 0.92 blocks)
C Erick Dampier (6.1 pts, 7.5 rebounds, 1.47 blocks)
Bench:
Brandon Bass, PF
Jerry Stackhouse, SF
DeSagana Diop, C
Antoine Wright, SG
Eddie Jones, SG
Devean George, SF
Jose Juan Barea, PG
Keith McLeod, PG
James Singleton, SF
Gerald Green, SF
Analysis:
The Mavericks are another team that can be described by the metaphor of a rapidly closing door of opportunity. Last season the Mavericks were 51-31. Sensing they were fading in the conference, they made the move to bring in Jason Kidd for last go at it. Well, it didn’t quite work, and so now the Mavs must try again to win with this rapidly aging and declining team. Last year the Mavericks were 12th in scoring and 6th in points against, both very good numbers, but the Mavericks are going to have some issues at PG. Jason Kidd was once a truly great player, but last year with the Mavs he just wasn’t a difference maker and in the playoffs he was unable to help the team at all. The Mavericks still have some excellent talent in their frontcourt. Nowitzki is still as good as they come, Bass is a really nice up and coming player, Stackhouse is Stackhouse, and Howard, despite his recent acts of craziness, is still one of the unheralded great young SF’s in the league. However, they just don’t have the overall bench to compete with the other teams in their division and conference. The Mavs should still be able to make the playoffs, and they could even be a team that sneaks up on some people in the playoffs if they’re not careful. But an injury here or an unexpected decline there, and this team could find itself on the outside looking in. This is a watershed season for the Dallas Mavericks.
Projected Record: 50-32 (6th in the Western Conference)
Key Dallas Mavericks Blogs:
Mavs Moneyball
blog maverick (Mark Cuban)
Uwe Blog
Showboating
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Mon, Nov 3rd – Away – FSNOH
2. Sun, Mar 29th – Home – ABC
5. Memphis Grizzlies
Players Lost:
-Kwame Brown, C (FA – Detroit)
-Juan-Carlos Navarro, G (FA – Spain)
-Brian Cardinal, F (Trade – Minnesota)
-Mike Miller, G (Trade – Minnesota)
-Jason Collins, C (Trade – Minnesota)
-Kevin Love, F (Trade – Minnesota)
Players Added:
-Darrell Arthur, F (Draft)
-Hamed Haddadi, C (FA – Iran)
-Quinton Ross, G (FA – LA Clippers)
-Brent Petway, F (FA – D-League)
-O.J. Mayo, G (Trade – Minnesota)
-Marko Jaric, G (Trade – Minnesota)
-Antoine Walker, F (Trade – Minnesota)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Mike Conley (9.4 pts, 4.2 assists, 0.83 steals)
SG Marko Jaric (8.3 pts, 4.1 assists, 1.3 steals)
SF Rudy Gay (20.1 pts, 6.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists)
PF Hakim Warrick (11.4 pts, 4.7 rebounds, 0.37 blocks)
C Darko Milicic (7.2 pts, 6.1 rebounds, 1.63 blocks)
Bench:
Kyle Lowry, PG
Antoine Walker, PF
Marc Gasol, C
O.J. Mayo, SG
Javaris Crittenton, PG
Hamed Haddadi, C
Darrell Arthur, PF
Greg Buckner, SG
Analysis:
The Memphis Grizzlies really are a shame. While there is no doubt about my Cavaliers fan loyalty, I do have a few teams I follow in the Western Conference. I have always liked the Lakers, and when Oden and Conley entered the NBA, I was excited to add the Blazers and Grizzlies to my list of teams to watch. I thought both were really exciting, young, up-and-coming teams. The Grizzlies had a foundation of Conley, Mike Miller, Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick, and Pao Gasol. They had a core of solid point guards in Conley, Lowry, and Navarro. Gasol was already a star, and Rudy Gay was on his way to joining him. This was a team I was excited to watch grow together. Well, it never happened. The team never played a lick of defense and they never developed much of any chemistry. And then something strange happened. They sent Gasol to LA for practically nothing. The Cavaliers tried to get Mike Miller, and were told the Grizz weren’t moving him. And then he gets traded to Minnesota as a part of the big draft night swap. Navarro goes back to Europe. This is a shell of the team I thought Mike Conley was going to be leading. Last year they finished an abysmal 22-60. They were a respectable 10th in points per game, but were 28th in points against. The Grizzlies are now in full rebuilding mode. The good news, I suppose, for them is that they can ride out another bad year this year, shed Antoine Walker’s contract after this year, pick up a top 5 pick in the Draft, and have loads of cap space to throw around in the offseason. The Grizzlies are going to be able to add pieces around Conley, Lowry, Gay, Mayo, and Warrick in the near future, but for this year, this looks like a worse team than last year, in my opinion. The future is bright, the present is dark.
Projected Record: 20-62 (15th in the Western Conference)
Key Memphis Grizzlies Blogs:
3 Shades Of Blue
David’s Memphis Grizzlies Blog
Beale Street Beat
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Tue, Jan 13th – Away – FSNOH
2. Tue, Feb 24th – Home – FSNOH
Next up will be the Atlantic Division.
Previous Previews:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
2 Comments
Rock! You continue to amaze me. Nice job.
I concur, buddy.