Should Buckeye Fans Be Worried?

Well, here it is. It’s Michigan Week (or, for people like me, it’s Ohio State Week, aka The Apocalypse). And, since I’m here, this site is technically a House Divided (albeit only slightly so).
At any rate, on Monday morning I brought up the idea to the other guys about my being willing to essentially talk about how badly the beat-down will be for my Wolverines on Saturday. It started out innocently enough, but a funny thing happened as I threw my team under the bus: a couple of the guys actually expressed some concern about this game.

We’ll throw it out to you, readers. I can only assume the majority of you are also OSU fans. So, the million-dollar question: are YOU worried at all about Saturday?

DP: [sigh]… are we “breaking down” the OSU/UM “game” this week? I’d be more than willing to “highlight” the “strengths” and WEAKNESSES of Michigan…

Ugh. 3-9. I can’t believe we’re going to go 3-9.

Craig: I always forget you are a UM fan… Who let you into this site anyway? 🙂

So this week is like the Superbowl for you. Imagine if RichRod and company actually finds a way to beat Beanie and the Bucks? Maybe you should write up about what that would do for you this year and the program in general if the Wolverines were somehow able to snap out of it for one Saturday to beat the hated rivals?

Rock: I wouldn’t sound so defeated. Remember Bo’s first year at Michigan. Nobody thought UM had a chance in that game, either. This OSU team isn’t that good, and I’m actually a little worried about this game.

DP: Craig, playing along: if Michigan wins this game, my head will explode. Literally. Though, Super Bowl is a bit of a stretch… that would imply that we’re good. It’s more like the Lions trying to spoil the Packers’ playoff chances in week 16.

Allow me to put your fears to rest, Rock! As I told my wife Sunday: every single player/position on Michigan’s roster has to play the game of his life, and Ohio State would have to struggle in their running game AND defense for Michigan to even keep it close.

It’s not that they aren’t trying to snap out of it, Craig… they simply do NOT have the personnel yet to run the offensive system they run, and because of it there is no chance for them to win on Saturday. They lost to Toledo and Northwestern. At home. They lost to PURDUE!!

Their problem is two-fold, and isn’t magically getting fixed this week:
1) They have no offensive linemen. None. They lost three starters from last year to draft/graduation, and then Boren quit/transferred in the spring. They’re starting a true freshman at center (I know you guys are too, but at least he has some experience around him). On top of all of that, they had to learn a new blocking scheme as part of the new system. “Work in Progress” is putting it lightly.
2) They have two quarterbacks who aren’t extremely talented, to say the least. And, as the old saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks, you have none. Imagine that with two not-quite-mediocre quarterbacks! One (Nick Sheridan) is a running QB who is really only OK running the ball (Juice Williams, he is definitely not). If Sheridan starts, OSU can put their safeties up in run support because he just does not throw the ball more than about 15-20 yards with any consistent accuracy. When he’s in there, the passing game is generally relegated to bubble screens, swing passes, and quick slants and outs. Going up against an All-American CB only makes passing the ball with Sheridan that much tougher.

Then, they have Steven Threet. Imagine Derek Anderson trying to run a spread offense, and that’s basically what you have. When Threet is in, they run a zone read offense with a 6’8″ QB who can’t move. Re-read that sentence again, and let it sink in. Agaist a defense with any kind of speed, it’s worthless. Even when Threet does keep it, he can’t be expected to gain much yardage simply because he’s just not fast and athletic. His passing is better than that of Sheridan, but again, he looks a lot like Derek Anderson at times: better deep balls, very inaccurate on the short- and mid-range passes. And, from what I’m hearing, Threet might not even play at all on Saturday because of a separated shoulder. At least his availability gives OSU something else to prepare for, if nothing else. No Threet all but takes the vertical passing game off the table completely for Michigan.

Couple all of this with the fact that the running back position has been a revolving door all year (McGuffie has been streaky and is now apparently gone, Minor has been good, but has been hurt for a couple of weeks and might not even play, Carlos Brown only had three total carries before getting the full load Saturday against NW, and Shaw is a freshman and will probably struggle against a defense like OSU’s). The WR corps is murky at best. Matthews has talent, but he’s battled injuries all year. Odoms has a high ceiling as a freshman both as a flanker and a kick returner, but he gets the dropsies from time to time and (as a Floridian) looked completely lost in the cold and rain on Saturday: he muffed a punt and dropped a couple of key passes. There’s some talent at TE (true freshman Kevin Koger has the makings of a very good receiving tight end), but when you don’t have a QB that can get him the ball consistently, it’s tough to use him.

Now, Michigan does have one strength that may come in handy this game: their defensive line is one of the best in the conference. Ends Brandon Graham and Tim Jamison as well as tackles Terrence Taylor, Will Johnson, and Mike Martin (who is a promising true freshman) have all been beasts this year. The defense’s main issue is that usually they run out of gas in the middle of the third quarter because their offense goes 3-and-out seven or eight times in a row. Obi Ezeh is a decent LB, but he’s not surrounded by much talent. Other than Donovan Warren (aka Leon Hall, part deux), there isn’t much in the secondary. Morgan Trent relies on his “speed” too much, takes chances, and gets burnt. Our safties are atrocious (watch NWs two touchdowns in the third quarter from Saturday to see what I mean). The saving grace for Saturday is that Pryor hasn’t shown he’s a great passer…yet.

So, you see, unless Jenkins, Laurinitis, and Freeman all get the Brazilian Death Flu, our offense will have trouble moving the ball all day, especially if they have no real threat of a passing game. And, even though our defensive front will be strong at the outset, they will wear down eventually and there will be holes to exploit.

Rock: Well, OSU’s offensive line is the worst O-Line I can remember in my lifetime. I’m sure there have been worse ones, I just can’t remember them. The only respectable lineman is Brewster, our Freshman center. Our offense had 2 games without scoring an offensive TD this year (both games that Beanie Wells played in, too). I can’t remember the last time that happened.

People say OSU’s defense is great, but it’s not. They have their moments, but they also let teams move the ball all over the field on them. Freeman has been awful this year, Laurinaitis is much like the Browns linebackers….he’s great at making tackles 5-8 yards downfield. The D-Line has been better, and that’s been the defense’s strength as of late. The secondary is ok. Jenkins is an absolute stud, but the safeties are mediocre at best. Kurt Coleman will give you one great play, and then follow it up with 2 bad plays. It’s maddening. If Michigan actually really focuses on running the ball rather than throwing it, I give them a chance. OSU was lucky to beat Wisconsin (who ran all over OSU), lucky to beat Illinois (who ran all over OSU), and heck, they were even lucky to beat Ohio (who ran all over OSU). This OSU team is definitely beatable.

If I had to bet, I’d still bet a lot on OSU, but I’m just saying….if UM comes in and is jacked up for this game, I think they have a chance. In this rivalry, you can throw records and performance out the window. It’s never easy to win a game in this series.

DP: I guess I see where you’re coming from, there, but the difference is that UM doesn’t have the personnel that those other teams do with respect to running the ball. They played arguably their best all-around offensive game against Minnesota, and still had to settle for five field goals. UM has one potential wild card, though I can’t say we’ve seen enough of him to know what they might/can do with him: they have Justin Feagin. He’s a true-freshman QB (think Antonio Henton, minus the prostitutes! [rim shot]) who pops into the games for one or two plays each week. He was recruited as an “athlete”, so if you see him at QB it will be to do something that they haven’t shown OSU on film, perhaps.

You can bet if Sheridan is the starter (now very likely), the Wolverines will be trying to run the ball almost exclusively. But, in addition to who UM’s starting QB is, the weather will also be a factor in the passing game for both teams’ QBs, too. I can’t imagine wind and/or rain will be an aid to Pryor’s moon-balls (though right now the forecast looks to be cold, but dry).

Craig: I am with Rock. Ohio State has played badly enough in enough spots this season that they are capable of losing to anybody in any given week. The offense can be good sometimes, but they are inexperienced in the passing attack (Pryor) overrated in the receiving game (Robiskie et al) and weak on the offensive line. Rock got it exactly right on the defense too. I want to love Laurinaitis like he is Katzenmoyer, but he just isn’t. Jenkins has got to be one of the best corners in all of college football, but Chekwa and the rest are just slightly above average. The D-line is playing ok, but the Illini ran pretty effectively against them this week, didn’t they?

Couple this with the fact that Tressel doesn’t really have a killer instinct sometimes and has been known to be outcoached by guys who favor the spread, and Michigan has a real chance.

I hope DP is right, though.

Rock: By the way, how did you come to be a UM fan anyway? Just curious….it’s always interesting to encounter UM fans in Columbus.

If I were RichRod, I would throw everything I had into this game. This is it for Michigan. This is their last game of the season, and they all know that if they win this game, it’s going to do a lot to salvage this season. I’m always worried about games where EVERYONE says that one team has NO CHANCE. I realize that all logic says that OSU should be able to win this game with ease at home, but I just feel like logic doesn’t apply to the OSU-UM rivalry. There’s no way OSU should have gone into the Big House in Tressel’s first year and won that game, but they did. I think there’s certainly a decent chance UM could sneak up on OSU. UM has to start out hot, though. If you can punch OSU in the mouth early sometimes they will back down. If OSU comes out and scores on their first couple possessions, though, then it could be tough for UM. When OSU starts out well, they usually win. I normally have a good feel for which OSU team is showing up by their 3rd possession.

DP: I ended up being a Michigan fan out of pure spite for my family. That’s the most honest answer I can give. And, then once I really started following them (this was during the Grbac/Howard years, really) and learning the players, etc., there was no going back. I was a Michigan fan long before I moved to Columbus.

I understand and lend some credence to the “us against the world factor”, but you also have to then look at RichRod as an x-factor himself, too. Think of it as The Cooper Factor. Cooper never really *got* the rivalry, and RichRod is the first coach from “outside” of the program that Michigan has had since Bo was hired. Tressel certainly *gets* it, hence his ability to take arguably inferior teams to victory twice (2004, as well, IMHO) since coming to OSU. But, does RichRod *get* it? I mean, he let his own alma mater get shocked by Pittsburgh last year in their “Backyard Brawl” rivalry game when a National Championship berth was on the line, so who knows??

That said, you’re also correct: RichRod has heard the boos at home, and he knows that the honeymoon is (was?) short. That means a win over OSU would go a long way to turning down some of the heat. Fans of Michigan that can understand football know (knew) it was going to be a rough year, but can also look at this team and see that with the right players the system will work. The recruiting class for 2009 looks solid. Kevin Newsome’s de-commit hurts A LOT (he’s Pat White plus about 3 inches of height), but they still have the awesomely-named Shavodrick Beaver and Tate Foricer coming in at QB, and are going hard after WV soft-verbal Eugene Smith. And, everyone that’s watched RichRod knows that year two always improves once the system gets installed and he gets players that can run it.

That said, if they get destroyed by OSU, there are going to be a lot of people who are going to be more uneasy and unhappy.

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So, there that is. I myself think that if Michigan gets into double-digits in scoring it will be a mini-victory, while it sounds like Rock is adopting the Corso-esque “Buckeyes, closer than the experts think” mantra. What do you think, readers? Are you concerned at all? Are you even paying attention to the run-up to this game, or are you more focused on the PSU/MSU game because of its Rose Bowl implications?