Forecasting the Tribe Pitching Staff

Every year, one of the biggest names in baseball, Bill James, releases his “Handbook.”  Within said book, we get some of the most in-depth forecasting out there.  Sometimes, the predictions are spot on.  Other times, we have a few outliers like, say, Cliff Lee’s 2008 campaign. 

After checking out some of his statistical forecasts for the upcoming Indians season, we have an idea of what to expect come a few months from now.  Whether these forecasts truly return to form or not remains to be seen.  But while we continue to look for a few more arms to add to the stable, here’s what we can reasonably expect from those currently donning Chief Wahoo.

Someone else will be recording saves in 2009

Among our relievers, the highest save amount predicted is “2.”  And this number belongs to three different relievers: Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis and Masa Kobayashi.  Given that our team leader last season was Lewis with 13, perhaps James’ forecast takes into account past seasons as well.  I’m willing to bet that Rafael Betancourt vultures a few saves here and there as well, but for now we have to assume that the Kerry Wood rumors are the answer to an updated version of the Handbook…

Anthony Reyes becomes the #2 pitcher in our rotation

Something I’m completely comfortable with if he keeps up where he left off with us last season.  I hesitate to get too worked up about Reyes after his well-documented history, but James thinks the flat brim will roll off double-digit wins with a respectable ERA of 3.88.  The mark of 168 innings shows that Reyes may miss a few starts here and there, but if he can notch 10-12 wins in less than 30 starts, I think that’s something we can all live with.  Ideally, I’d like to find a pitcher who could get us these numbers to slot in front of or behind Reyes in the rotation, but that remains to be seen.  We’ll need it if the Carmona predictions are correct…

Fausto Carmona does not bounce back to his 2007 form

James forecasts that Carmona pitches 141 innings in 2009, and finishes with a record of 8-8.  While 141 innings would have been second on the team last year, it would have been fifth in the fruitful season that saw the sinker ball pitcher win 19 games.  James also forecasts that his ERA is a run higher (4.17) in ’09 than it was in ’07 (3.06).  With all of this said, we could be banking on a lot of production from the rest of our rotation – including another huge season from Cliff Lee…

Cliff Lee comes back down to earth

Could we really expect another historic season out of Lee?  James doesn’t think so, but he does see Lee winning 14 games in 2009 – something we would have taken had it been presented to us at this time last year.  Lee is forecasted to toss near 200 innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball.  His strikeout-to-walk ratio will take a small bump down, but will still be a respectable 3.5.  The intriguing thing that I’m looking forward to is the fan reaction to Lee come next year.  Will they accept the fact that a repeat is highly unlikely?  We can only hope after the Cy Young season that we received and hope that the rest of the staff steps up to the task…

Rafael Betancourt harnesses more of 2006 than 2008

Thank the Lord.  After a year that was nothing short of disastrous, Betancourt is pegged to toss some solid ball in 2009.  After walking 11 guys in 2006 and nine in 2007, Betancourt’s walk total ballooned to 25 last year.  This year, we’re back down below 20 (18) with 70 strikeouts.  The ERA forecast of 3.19 will have to do for now, but it would be a lot better if he could get it below three.  The big test will be his lefty/righty splits that were just mind-blowing last season…   

Jake Westbrook offers some second-half stability

Though we’re not likely to see one of our highest paid players until the All-Star break, James thinks that J.W. will roll off a 4-4 record with an ERA just north of four.  In 64 innings of work, Westbrook should provide a handful of quality starts with a low walk total; essentially typical Westbrook.  It’s just a matter of the veteran getting healthy and contributing to this team.  I can’t help but think of how great he was pitching before his injury last year.  Let’s get some more of that.

There have been plenty of names floated about as targets for next season’s rotation.  Given the forecasts above, what sort of names/numbers do we need to add?  Some reason, I have a feeling that what we need to add and what we do add will not exactly meet in the middle.  As usual…only time will tell.