Preview: Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs (Game 59)

Columbus Blue Jackets (29-23-6, 64pts)
vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (21-26-10, 52pts)
Air Canada Centre,  Toronto, Ontario
Thursday, February 19, 2009
7:30 PM EST
FSOHIO/WWCD(fm)/WBNS(am)

(Dispatch Preview / SportsDirect Preview)

No rest for the weary. After a frightful third period Wednesday night that saw the Jackets hold off the hard-charging Blues—and earned the Jackets a spot in sixth place in the Western Conference playoff race—they hit the road immediately and face off with the Maple Leafs, a team currently struggling in the less deep Eastern Conference. Columbus has had great success against the Eastern Conference this year, to the tune of a 9-3-1 record to this point. Columbus is still of course in the thick of a span of six games in nine days, with tonight being game five (in day seven). Columbus is 5-0-1 in their last six games. Tonight’s game is a bit of a home-coming for a few Jackets stars, and is another great chance to improve their standing in the playoff race. Oh, and there is also the small matter of the fact that Jackets coach Ken Hitchcock is now sitting on 499 career wins. Only 12 coaches in NHL history have 500 career wins. I trust you all can do the math on that one…

Projected Lineups
Columbus Blue Jackets:

Toronto Maple Leafs:

Team Rankings
Scoring:
CBJ – 2.69 gpg (20th NHL)
TOR – 2.98 gpg (10th NHL)

Defense:
CBJ – 2.69 gapg (t7th NHL)
TOR – 3.60 gapg (30th NHL)

Power Play:
CBJ – 12.7% (30th NHL)
TOR – 19.9% (t11th NHL)

Penalty Kill:
CBJ – 81.6% (t14th NHL)
TOR – 73.3% (30th NHL)

Prior Matchups
No prior matchups. This is the only matchup between these two teams this season.

Who To Root For
Thanks to the great people at Sports Club Stats, we can also look at what the rest of the league is doing, and who (as Jackets fans) we need to root for tonight to help them make the playoffs:

Columbus at Toronto
Edmonton at Dallas (technically speaking, either team winning helps the Jackets)
Calgary at Minnesota
Los Angeles at San Jose
Vancouver at Ottawa
St. Louis at Nashville
Atlanta at Phoenix

Game Notes
A look at the numbers gives one the impression that this game could very easily go in the Jackets favor. Defense and goaltending always seem to trump offensive production this time of year, and the numbers in that context definitely favor the Jackets. The Jackets defense should match up well against Toronto’s decent offense, and Toronto’s defense is dead-last in the league. Columbus has been doing a better job of scoring recently, and they definitely played much better hockey in the first two periods last night against St. Louis, notching four goals in 40 minutes. The interesting matchup will be the Columbus Power Play (last in the league) against the Toronto Penalty Kill (ALSO last in the league). It’s the resistible “force” against the movable “object”!

Well, after all the talk of shaking up the forward lines, Wednesday night’s game saw a lot of the same lineups, with only a few minor changes. Raffi Torres was out with the flu, and it looks like he won’t go tonight either (UPDATE:Torres WILL start tonight, in place of Derek Dorsett). Jason Williams ended up centering the #2 scoring line. But, the main combo of Nash/Malhotra/Huselius was out there again last night, and actually did pretty well (Nash and Malhotra both had a goal and an assist). I won’t waste a ton of time breaking down what the Jackets need to do to be successful. They did it for two periods last night: get pucks deep and create a solid forecheck, stay out of the box as much as possible, get pucks on the net, and play solid stay-at-home defense. One wrinkle may be that Steve Mason might not get the start tonight, as he is after all still technically coming back from mononucleosis, and they have played four games in six days prior to tonight—Mason has started all four of them. It would be tough to sit him in front of his family and home-town crowd, but the Jackets can ill afford to have him out there without a good energy level, because Toronto CAN score. UPDATE: Mason IS going to start tonight.

Conversely, we also saw 20 minutes last night from Columbus that highlight what they canNOT do tonight: silly penalties, playing back on their heels (they were content to try to dump-and-chase the puck most of the third period, which netted them only three actual shots on goal), and lowering their energy level. Toronto is 7-13-4 since around Christmas time, and they are flat-out lousy on defense. On top of that, the Leafs are also starting a rookie in goal (Justin Pogge). The 22-year-old has only four starts so far on the season, and comes into tonight with a 1-3-0 record, a 4.26(!!!) goals-against average, and a low .837 save percentage. The Jackets need to pepper him with shots early, get him rattled, and of course need to bury some scoring chances. The defense and PK units in front of Pogge are terrible, and despite their inconsistencies the Jackets have been scoring some goals of late (11 goals in their last three games). That trend needs to continue. The Jackets need to pounce early, and this time they need to step right on their opponents’ throats instead of letting them hang around. Toronto has enough offense with seven double-digit goal-scorers to make it interesting if Columbus lets them hang around.

I know I can tend to sound like a broken record in these things, but if Columbus can keep the game at even strength, and can play within their system, and doesn’t let up tonight after a game last night and the travel, there really isn’t any reason they should not come home with two more points (and a crack at sole possession of fifth place with a Vancouver loss in Ottawa). Toronto is a struggling team with a young, inexperience goaltender, but they’re playing at home and have had an extra day of rest that Columbus has not had.  This is a game that I honestly believe Columbus can win early; if the Jackets come out and establish the forecheck early, and can maybe get a couple of goals on Pogge fairly quickly, I think they learned enough last night not to let it get away from them again tonight. And, I’ll just keep saying it verbatim from yesterday’s preview: “honestly, at this point in the season, they HAVE to win games like this if they want to make the playoffs.”

Side game notes:

• This game sets up almost perfectly for Ken Hitchcock in his pursuit of his 500th career win. The Toronto hockey media is one of—if not THE—largest contingent in the league, and Hitchcock is going for an achievement that only 12 other coaches have done in league history. If you missed it yesterday, take a look at the great article by Portzline here about Hitch as the coach approaches the magic number of 500 wins.
• Along the lines of the Toronto media, several Jackets players have Toronto roots. Goalie Steve Mason grew up in Oakville, which is basically a southern suburb about 25 miles from Toronto, and was a Leafs fan growing up. Captain Rick Nash is from Brampton, which is also a Toronto suburb. Michael Peca is from Toronto. Manny Malhotra is from Mississauga, another Toronto suburb. Raffi Torres was born in Toronto as well. 
• While looking at Toronto’s record might lend itself to taking this game lightly, Ken Hitchcock is hardly going to do that with each point in the standings so precious: “Those teams make me really nervous,” Hitchcock said. “They have no pressure on them. They play loose and hard. You have a tendency to make the biggest mistake, which is looking in the standings. When you make that mistake, you’re already 50 cents down on the dollar. If you’re not ready to play at a high level, you can get hammered there.”

From The Outside Looking In
Mike Ulmer (official Maple Leafs site)
Pension Plan Puppets
Toronto Mike

Next Game For The Jackets

Saturday, February 21, 2009
7:00 PM EST
Anaheim Ducks at Columbus Blue Jackets