My Worst Fears May Be Realized
March 24, 2009Indians Adjust Roster, Trevor Crowe Still Around
March 24, 2009Every Tuesday, WFNY’s The 5-Hole brings you up to date with the goings-on of the CBJ…
The Week That Was
Week: 2-0-0, 4 points
Overall: 38-28-6, 82 points (3rd division; 6th conference)
The Jackets had another great week, for two main reasons: first and foremost, they won both of their games, and now have seemingly made it very likely that they will make the playoffs in some capacity, and secondly because they only had two games for a change, giving them a chance to rest up a bit for the final push to the end of the season. To dive a little deeper, however, these two wins were not only important for the four points; they were also important because Columbus could have very easily lost both games, but managed to rally back with some timely scoring and goaltending to win both. That’s what [gulp] playoff teams do! Not that I’m saying anything that could be construed as any kind of jinx…
Wednesday, 3/18 in Columbus – Blue Jackets 4, Blackhawks 3 – OT (Recap)
Saturday, 3/21 in Miami – Blue Jackets 3, Panthers 1 (Box Score) – Highlights
These two games were tales of resiliency. The Jackets trailed in both, but mustered enough to surge and win both. Against the Hawks, the Jackets looked a bit flat, but managed to tie the game at 3 in the second period and hold on to force overtime, where (Columbus’s newest rock star) Antoine Vermette notched the game-winner. Against Florida, it was an entirely different story.
The Jackets came out with some jump, and really were controlling the game early. But, they were unable to get solid, quality shots, and Tomas Vokoun (he of the career 19-6-1 record against them going in) was puzzling them. The Jackets got unlucky late in the period, as a rebound trickled into the crease and a pile of bodies kept Steve Mason from sliding across the crease to block the put-back. 1-0 Florida. It would stay that way for a long, long while. Thankfully for Columbus, Mason’s dominance against the Eastern Conference would continue the rest of the way, as after that fluky rebound in the first he gave the Panthers absolutely NOTHING.
The second period was pretty uninspiring (don’t believe me? Watch the “Highlights” link above… it’s like 90 seconds long and there’s almost NOTHING from the second period). Both teams stalemated each other, and Vokoun continued to stop everything Columbus could muster on offense. The third period started much the same, and it looked like Columbus would go out with a whimper and Florida would escape with a 1-0 shutout. Then, as the period wore on, the Jackets started to pick up their intensity. All of a sudden, they were getting real scoring chances. Vokoun was up the to task at first, but with just under three minutes left—and a large chunk of the crowd heading for the exits to “beat the traffic”—Kristian Huselius controlled the puck behind the goal and sent a gorgeous pass to Raffi Torres in the slot, who one-timed it high and finally solved Vokoun.
And then the dam burst. Looking much like the “Jackets of old,” the Panthers caved in. On a turnover not even 75 seconds later, Michael Peca slid a pass across the ice to Torres for ANOTHER quick shot, this one beating Vokoun low. After pulling their goalie, the Panthers tried for the one last push to tie the game and salvage a point, but Antoine Vermette put an end to that with about 18 seconds left, as he buried an empty-netter from center ice to, well, ice it. I said above that “the Panthers caved in.” Seriously, watch the highlights link, listen to the Florida announcers’ voices, and watch as the Panthers player retrieves the puck from the empty-net goal and just SMACKS it into the boards. That was a team that caved in. And, as a Jackets fan, frankly, it was nice to see the Jackets do that TO a team instead of constantly having it DONE TO them.
Since the ugly loss to Pittsburgh on 2/6, the Jackets are 13-5-1, and have lost consecutive games only once. They set two more franchise records this week (total points, 82; road wins, 15) and have put themselves in prime position to finally earn a spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Hey, speaking of which…
Playoff Update
We’ve begun running this section, thanks to the data provided at the wonderful Sports Club Stats website that runs daily simulations and predicts probability of playoff finishes by conference. This site is updated daily, and also weights each game to show how every outcome affects each team in the race.
The biggest movers were the Ducks, who have all of a sudden made a move and are back in the discussion. Columbus helped themselves a lot, moving their percentage up into the solid 90’s range. And, you can see the gap that has emerged between Columbus and the rest of the pack behind them. This solid stretch for the Jackets has really padded their chances to at least make the post-season; keep in mind that this chart is just the percentage that these teams will MAKE the playoffs. The seeding is something we’ll talk about as we get closer. This week’s Western Conference playoff probabilities standings, thanks to Sports Club Stats:
Rank | Team | Points | G-I-H | Record | Playoff% |
5 | Canucks | 85 | 2 | 38-24-9 | 99.9% |
6 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 1 | 38-28-6 | 95.3% |
7 | Oilers | 79 | 1 | 35-28-9 | 66.1% |
8 | Ducks | 76 | 1 | 35-31-6 | 39.2% |
9 | Wild | 76 | 1 | 34-30-8 | 36.8% |
10 | Predators | 77 | 1 | 35-30-7 | 31.8% |
11 | Blues | 75 | 1 | 33-30-9 | 16.6% |
12 | Stars | 74 | 1 | 33-31-8 | 13.8% |
(key: points – derived from record, 2 pts for a win, 0 for a loss, 1 for an overtime loss; G-I-H – games in hand; this number is the amount of games the team has left subtracted from the number of games played by the team who has played the most in the conference; Record – the team’s record, with wins, losses, and overtime losses [shoot-out losses count as overtime losses]; Playoff% is the probability in percent of the team making the playoffs based on their simulations)
Up Next
Updating the expanded “Up Next” section, we’ll continue taking a longer-view look at the schedule the rest of the way, now that we’re down to 10 games remaining. The Jackets have been in the midst of a tough stretch, but have risen to the challenge so far. They have one more road game this week before heading back home, and then the weekend brings a home-and-home with St. Louis. The Jackets have an even five home and road games the rest of the way.
The guys at The Dispatch have maintained for most of the year that the Jackets needed to get to 91 points to qualify (picking that number because that’s the point total Nashville had last year to earn the eighth seed). I’ve always been a little more pessimistic since there are so many teams hanging around, but the silver lining there is that with all of these teams playing each other down the stretch generally somebody’s going to be losing ground every night. So, for the sake of argument and projection, let’s say that the Jackets (currently at 82 points) need to get 9 or 10 points in their last 10 games. Possible results that would earn those point totals:
9 Points: | 10 Points: |
4-5-1 | 5-5-0 |
3-4-3 | 4-4-2 |
2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
1-2-7 | 2-2-6 |
0-1-9 | 1-1-8 |
0-0-10 |
That’s still a lot of possibilities, but being realistic: the Jackets have 6 OT/SO losses through the first 72 games (in other words, 1 OTL every 12 games, or 0.083 OTL/Game). Using that math, let’s suggest that anything more than one or two OTLs is unlikely. This means that the Jackets basically need to go 5-5-0, 4-5-1, or 4-4-2. Summary: they really need to win at least four of their final 10 games. They’ve won 38 of their first 72, or just over half, so they’re actually in pretty good shape if they can keep their level up play where it has been.
To take it one step further, the Jackets have a six point edge on the teams currently in ninth place, and all have the same number of games remaining: if the Jackets get 10 points in their next 10 games, one of those teams has to go at least 8-2 just to tie them. And on top of that, the two teams between Columbus and the ninth place teams would have to pass them as well.
Sounds easy enough, right? Not so fast. Turns out that the Jackets have several head-to-head matchups with some of those teams. Let’s take a full look at the schedule the rest of the way, which is jam-packed through March:
Date | Opponent | Record | |
3/10 | Boston | W (34-27-6, 74pts) | X |
3/12 | Pittsburgh | W (35-27-6, 76pts) | X |
3/13 | @Chicago | W (36-27-6, 78pts) | X |
3/15 | Detroit | L (36-28-6, 78pts) | |
3/18 | Chicago | W(37-28-6, 80pts) | X |
3/21 | @Florida | W(38-28-6, 82pts) | X |
3/24 | @Tampa Bay | (23-33-16, 62pts) | X |
3/26 | Calgary | (42-24-6, 90pts) | |
3/28 | @St. Louis | (33-30-9, 75pts) | X |
3/29 | St. Louis | (33-30-9, 75pts) | X |
3/31 | Nashville | (35-30-7, 77pts) | X |
4/4 | @Nashville | (35-30-7, 77pts) | |
4/5 | Chicago | (38-22-11, 87pts) | |
4/8 | @Chicago | (38-22-11, 87pts) | |
4/10 | @St. Louis | (33-30-9, 75pts) | X |
4/11 | Minnesota | (34-30-8, 76pts) | X |
That’s a lot to digest, perhaps. In the updated “record” column, I’ve added the results/Jackets’ record for games that have been played since we started this last week (itals). I’ve also added X’s to the games-past that the Jackets won. In addition, I’ve left the six X’s in from previous weeks, which were for the games that I felt the Jackets should have a better-than-average expectation to win. Well, knowing what we know, the Jackets really just need to win five of those six games to get over that (arbitrary) 91-point mark (five wins would put them at 92 points). The Jackets have gotten 10 (out of 12 possible) of the original 19/20 points I thought they needed when I started this two weeks ago, which definitely makes things more manageable the rest of the way.
Injury Update
The Jackets have still been without Fredrik Modin and Jason Chimera, and while they are both working to get back, I think it’s not a good idea to count on either of these guys really contributing much before the regular season ends. If the Jackets make the playoffs, however, they would certainly help the depth aspect of the club.
Speaking of which, as we talked about in Friday’s While We’re Waiting piece, GM Scott Howson has not ruled out a “playoff return” for injured center Derick Brassard, who is rehabbing from surgery on a torn labrum in his shoulder. It was originally thought that we wouldn’t see Brassard at all this year, regardless of any playoffs for Columbus. How effective Brassard could/would be after such a long layoff is anybody’s guess. But, the silver lining to it being a shoulder injury is that he has been able to skate to keep some kind of conditioning. And, any time you can have a player with his skills-set on the ice in important games, you would take it.
Quotes of the Week
I don’t think at any point we thought the game was over. On the bench, we kept saying, ‘It’s going to come, it’s going to come, it’s going to come.’ We stuck with it. All we needed was one goal to get back into it, so we kept on going. It’s a huge win. It says a lot about our team.
–Forward Raffi Torres, after his own personal Saturday night two-goal scoring binge late in the third period lifted Columbus over the Florida Panthers.
Look, we’ve been leaning on the same guys game in and game out, and some other guys came through tonight. And I think that’s what good teams do, you get new heroes. That’s exactly what happened today.
–Coach Ken Hitchcock, talking about Torres and the win in Florida.
The reason I like to keep changing is otherwise the opposition gets a feel for it. There are games where Umberger and Vermette need size on that right side, so we can maybe slide Jared Boll or Derek Dorsett in there (for Voracek). For a coach, that’s the kind of versatility you like to have, and we’ve got it here. [The top-two combinatios of Nash-Huselius and Vermette-Umberger are] not changing. But everything else will change, probably.
–Coach Ken Hitchcock, talking about the flexibility he has on his forward lines, and why he’s known as somewhat of a “tinkerer” with his lineups.
I picked these quotes for two reasons: 1) Raffi Torres is a game-changer. Scott Howson told the media when he traded for Torres last summer that he could be a game-changer both with timely goals and with timely hits. Because he’s struggled so much with injuries this season, it’s been hard to get a real sense of what Torres can bring to the table. But, he’s scored 10 goals in nine different games, and that Jackets are 9-0-0 in games in which he scores. That’s game-changing.
2) I like how Hitch not only notes that (in the playoffs, especially) you need to have different players step up, but how he talks about how and why he might make changes on the fly with his lineup. He’s right that in the playoffs—after you’ve played the same team three times in a row—teams start to pick up on tendencies and game-plan to counteract strengths. The fact that he’s smart enough to work against that, and that Scott Howson has built him a team with which he can juggle the lineup to do so–while not feeling like he’s making the team weaker… all of that put together is the sign of a solid front office and coaching staff. Oh, and…
Bonus “Curse of Adam Foote” Quote of the Week
We don’t want to have the long stretch, like some other teams do, when they are bad for a number of years. We’ve seen it in the past, some teams like Chicago or Columbus that were bad for a long time. If you go two or three years with losing, it’s harder to get out of it.
–Colorado Avalanche forward Milan Hejduk
Also, from The Dispatch link where I saw this quote:
The Colorado Avalanche’s worst season since the franchise moved to Denver 14 seasons ago hit a new low with an 8-1 home loss to Edmonton on Thursday.
The few fans who still show up for games are demanding a clean sweep of the powers that be, namely general manager Francois Giguere and coach Tony Granato.
Giguere has hung his hat on aging stars such as Joe Sakic, Adam Foote and Darcy Tucker to win games and sell tickets, but Colorado is now in a salary cap bind and the future looks bleak.
Hey Milan! Guess which team is now primed for a multi-year playoff run, in part because of your stupid teammate Adam Foote?? That would be Columbus, [female dog]! Since Adam Foote essentially became RJ Umberger (Columbus traded the pick they received for Foote at last year’s deadline straight up to Philadelphia for Umberger at last summer’s draft), who has become an integral part of this team and will be for the next few seasons, I’m happy to say THANK YOU! It looks like YOU guys get to spend some time at the back of the line, now!
Ahh, hubris. How tasty!
3 Comments
This Adam Foote stuff never gets old.
No kidding.
[…] A couple of 5-Holes ago, we ran a few “Quotes of the Week” about Raffi Torres, and talked about how Scott Howson called him a “game changer” when he was acquired via trade last summer. Torres was up to the task again last night, as he notched his 12th goal of the season (fifth since 2/26), and sixth game-winning goal, which leads all Blue Jackets players. The biggest stat: he’s scored a goal in 11 different games on the year (he scored two in the Florida win two weeks ago), and the Jackets are 11-0-0 when he scores. “To be honest with you, I think it’s a fluke,” Torres said afterward. “I didn’t even know about it. I’ve just got to keep doing what I’m doing and hopefully we’ll keep going.” Keep doing what you’re doing, Raffi: being a Game-Changer. […]