WFNY Predicts the Conference Finals
May 20, 2009NBA Playoffs: Magic vs. Cavs – Game 1 Recap
May 20, 2009
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Playoffs baby! Post-season! $20 Chinese food! Beef and Broccoli!
Let’s hear it Cleveland! Are you ready for the playoffs to finally begin again?!?!
Craig Edit: If I am here (which I probably should be) I will open the live chat so we can hang together during the game.
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LeBron needs a basketball in his hands!
(And I need a basketball game on my TV!)
POST-SEA-SON!
espn’s Broussard:
Part of Cleveland’s self-assurance stems from the fact that it has a history to fall back on. Under coach Mike Brown, the Cavs have always been a much stronger team in the postseason than in the regular season, a scary thought considering they won 66 games this season.
In recent years, opponents who have dominated Cleveland from November to early April have been in for a surprise come playoff time. Back in 2005-06, Washington appeared to have the Cavaliers’ number, beating them three of four times by an average of 10.6 points. But in their first-round series, Cleveland took the Wizards in six.
A year later, when the Cavs made their stunning run to the Finals, a victory over the big, tough Bad Boys of Detroit seemed impossible. The Pistons had whipped Cleveland twice in the Cavs’ building and taken three of four overall by a double-figure average. Yet in the Eastern Conference finals, the Cavaliers won four straight games en route to a 4-2 victory.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=broussard_chris&page=MagicCavs-090520
ok, can anyone tell me what that accuscore nonsense is? don’t want to be the ‘insider’ for this…
God, every time I think of those puppet commercials I crack up. SO GOOD.
Here is the Accuscore, it is worthless:
The Cleveland Cavaliers might seem destined to reach the NBA Finals, but it’s a mistake to underestimate the Orlando Magic. The Magic beat the Cavs by at least 10 points twice this season, both in Orlando. Plus, when they hit 3s, they’re more than a handful, as they showed in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against Boston.
Baseline forecast
Granted, the Cavs have the edge in plenty of areas, the most critical of which is home-court advantage. Add in that they’re playing their best basketball of the season and are well-rested, and the Cavs are projected to win the series in nearly 60 percent of simulations. The Magic figure to put up a good fight, though, because they are nearly as tough at home (64.7 winning percentage in simulations) as the Cavs are in Cleveland (68.3). So, just as they did during the regular season, there’s a strong chance the Magic will protect their home court against Cleveland in this series.
Series breakdown
AccuScore’s simulations reveal each team’s odds of winning in different scenarios.
Team Win in CLE Win in ORL Win series Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7
Cavaliers 68.3% 35.3% 59.7% 5.8% 18.3% 12.8% 22.9%
Magic 31.7% 64.7% 40.3% 4.2% 7.2% 18.3% 10.5%
Key stats
Dwight Howard might have been the league’s leading rebounder this season, but in simulations, the Cavs have the edge on the boards. That makes sense, considering Cleveland ranked third in the league in rebounding margin, while Orlando was ninth.
Even more critical, though, is 3-point shooting. The Cavs, who are the league’s best defensive team, are particularly strong beyond the arc, holding foes to just 33.3 percent shooting from downtown this season. In Game 1 simulations, the Magic have made just 9 of 25 shots (36 percent) from 3-point range.
However, our data suggest there is a 35 percent chance the Magic will make more than 40 percent of their shots from 3-point range. And in simulations in which that happens, they win 45 percent of the time. If they can match their performance from Game 7 versus Boston, hitting at least 11 3-pointers, they’ll have a 50-50 shot of winning Game 1.
Star player impact
The four All-Stars in this series — LeBron James, Mo Williams, Howard and Rashard Lewis — obviously will play huge roles. To evaluate each star’s value, we simulated the series without them to see what would happen to their teams.
Not surprisingly, the Cavaliers have no shot without James. The Cavaliers go from winning 59.7 percent of series simulations to a paltry 18 percent without LeBron. That said, Williams is clearly a critical piece of Cleveland’s puzzle, too. Without Williams, the Cavs become the underdog, winning just 45.4 percent of series simulations. The negative impact might be roughly one-third of the effect of losing LeBron, but without Williams, the Cavs simply aren’t as good as the Magic.
Cavs’ star values
How bad would the Cavs look without LeBron? And what difference would an injury to Mo Williams make?
Player Baseline Absent Diff % Diff
LeBron James 59.7% 18.1% -41.6% -69.7%
Mo Williams 59.7% 45.4% -14.3% -24.0%
Meanwhile, even with Howard, the Magic lost the battle of the boards in simulations. Without his presence down low, Orlando would get demolished. Cleveland’s rebounding and field goal percentage rise significantly in those simulations; if Howard were unavailable, Orlando’s defense would look more like the Washington Wizards’, and LeBron probably would average about seven dunks or layups a game.
Magic’s star values
How much do Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis, respectively, mean to the Magic’s chances of beating the Cavs?
Player Baseline Absent Diff. %Diff
Dwight Howard 40.3% 10.1% -30.2% -74.9%
Rashard Lewis 40.3% 23.6% -16.7% -41.4%
Although Lewis’ impact isn’t as pronounced as Howard’s, it’s substantial. He is an efficient scorer and a respectable rebounder, which is why the Magic are nearly 17 percentage points less likely to win without him. Although the Magic would unsuccessfully fill Howard’s void if he couldn’t play, their other players — particularly Mickael Pietrus — could fill some of Lewis’ void. In either scenario, though, the Magic would be heavy underdogs.
Best sign of the night.
“I have as many championship rings as charles barkley.”
TNT on mute. Joe Tait streaming on nba.com.
I’ll be a few seconds behind, but well worth not having to listen to the inane banter from TNT.
@6 … it was a great sign… but he spelled championship wrong … he forgot the o
@8 … that was so barkley could read it.
I predict, a hangover for me tomorrow.
didnt this shot clock thing happen before, in the playoffs, in the Q?
No, the thing was 3 years ago was a backboard thing, where they had the fire coming out of the backboards…. last year there was a pyrotechnics deal in Boston I think where the smoke had issues.
ESPN GAMECAST IS AN UNRELIABLE P_O_S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
/stuck at work.. live chat won’t work
DCBucks that was classic!!
OH MY GOD MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
i cant take this if the cavs lose the first two games i lose 100 dolla…. it should never have tgotten to this point
goodbye dwight i hate you sit down
Great first half. Terrible second half.
Holy crap I cannot believe we lost that game. I am speechless. I was watching with a room full of Cavs fans and one damn guy cheering for the Magic. He went apesh** when Lewis hit that shot. I wanted to punch him in the face.
Damn that really sucked.
Win Friday, and it’s Cavs in 6. Lose, and it’s Orlando in 5.
Totally agree with B-bo on that. we need momentum, NOW.