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June 3, 2009Jackets to Kansas City? Not Likely Right Now
June 3, 2009
With the Tribe continuing to flounder (22-32, eight games back) and the injuries mounting seemingly on a daily basis, not one, but two different national websites have begun the calls for GM Mark Shapiro to start an Indians fire sale.
Even before these columns were written, it was no secret that Shappy has put Mark DeRosa on the block. Don’t believe me? Than why is it that the season opened with DeRo as the everyday third basemen, yet over the last two weeks, the versatile former Cub, Ranger, and Brave has started games in Left, Right, First, Third, and DH?
It’s called a showcase.
Tom Verducci of SI.com weighed in on the reality that the Indians need to face:
Here are the facts. There have been 104 teams to make the playoffs in the 13 full seasons of the wild-card era. Exactly three of them, or 2.9 percent, were worse than five games below .500 when June began.
This piece also had some interesting quotes from Shapiro:
“Up until very recently we were more in the mode of looking to add,” Shapiro said. “I’ve probably slowed the effort to try to acquire. We’re probably more in the middle ground right now. People may think we’re crazy, but we still like the core of this team.”
“There’s nothing going on right now other than preparation,” In Shapiro said about what path Cleveland might take. “We have been a preemptive team in the market in past years. But this is too early to be preemptive.”
Trying to read the Shapiro tea leaves tells me that for attendance reasons, he cannot show this fan base that he is giving up on the season on June 3rd, yet he knows that this season is all but lost, despite the ridiculously bad division his team resides in.
I understand that he may “like the core of this team,” but what exactly is that core at this point? A starting pitcher who will most likely either be dealt in the next year or walk at the end of the 2010 season (Cliff Lee), an injured star CF (Grady Sizemore), a DH who can’t stay healthy and is locked into an untradeable contract (Travis Hafner), a closer who you can’t get the ball to with a lead (Kerry Wood), an OF who may have to leave to perform military service (Shin-Soo Choo), and a kid SS who I have a man-crush on (Asdrubal Cabrera).
You can throw Jhonny Peralta, and the two Raffy’s (Betancourt and Perez) in that mix as well. But does anyone else think Peralta isn’t long for this team with Wes Hodges most likely ready to take over at third next season and Jhonny sporting a manageable deal through 2011? He could be dealt this offseason as well.
Top National Sports blog The Big Lead piled on as well:
DeRosa will definitely go with the right offer, but Cleveland has, thus far, been reluctant to even float Martinez and Lee. Cleveland may not get back into contention this season, but the salient issue is 2010. If the Indians feel poised to make a run next year, it makes sense to keep Lee and Martinez with their sensible club options. If, however, they feel they are two to three years away, it would make more sense to deal and restock their talent pool.
Victor Martinez is THE franchise player here. You cannot deal him. A trade of Vic The Stik would be a colossal mistake. I can see dealing Cliff Lee this offseason for the right price, even though the Tribe starting staff looks atrocious with him (imagine how brutal it would be without him). But that’s another topic for another day.
In reality here is what I think happens:
-DeRosa is the first one dealt. St. Louis looks like the perfect fit with a glut of young pitching to deal.
-At the deadline, Jamey Carroll will be traded for a throw-away prospect. I for one am a JC fan, and think he could be a perfect utility man on a contending team. he is a contact hitter, who can play second, third, and short in a pinch.
-Carl Pavano will be the most attractive trade card in the Indians deck, and will end up on a National League contender, possibly Los Angeles who could use one more veteran starter. Could Joe Torre really got for a reunion with the man he bashed in his book?
-Another guy teams will be hot after will be Rafael Betancourt, assuming he comes back strong from his groin injury. The Tribe will resist the urge to deal him.
-The banged up Indians finish in last place and lose 95 games, costing Eric Wedge his job. Not that this is Wedge’s fault, but you cannot bring back a guy for his eighth year after only one playoff appearance and another season of failed expectations.
23 Comments
Wedge won’t be fired, especially with time left on his contract. They’ll use injuries as an excuse to keep him.
TD i disagree with you on JC getting traded for a throw away prospect. While he is a lesser version of Casey Blake at this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tribe do what they did with Casey and pay the deal in order to take a better prospect back though not one of the caliber of “Supernatural” Carlos Santana
Pavano will be dealt but not to LA . Don’t really think Torre would want that. All is not hopeless. There is a lot of talent in the minors and we should start to see that. If you keep people like Carroll and DeRosa around it hurts us long term. You build around Sizemore, Cabrerra, and Choo. They are your 3 best all around players. I still think Brantley will be a star which will force LaPorta to 1st which is fine because Garko is not the future.
It really is not that bad if you look at the talent throughout the system. The problem has been the lifeless manager and the GM who insists on veterans like Carroll, DeRosa, Delucci…all who hold the young kids back.
Minnesota is the perfect example. They let their kids play. Span and Gomez were not ready last year but they got on the job training.
@3: I think a big problem is our own young talent evaluation, not lack of opportunity for them to play. Marte, Garko, Franklin Guittierez, even Francisco … how are they working out with playing time? I commented on the other tribe post: we are no longer getting many impact players from our own minor league development. Victor is an exception, but Sizemore, Lee and Cabrera came from somewhere else.
@4: Very true when you consider Branley, LaPorta and Santana are also products of another system. I think that there is some sort of breakdown between the minor and major league people. I don’t think Marte will ever amount to anything but I look at his AAA numbers this year and can see him being successful elsewhere. Even though Marte is not really from our system. They have not drafted well in recent years yet have managed to have one of the better farm systems in the league. I really like Chisenhall who I think has a better future than Hodges.
The biggest thing that the Tribe needs to do is put people in places and leave them alone. Is Peralta the everyday 3B? Who is the everyday C? Who is the best option long term at 2B?
I think you are set in CF with Sizemore and RF with Choo. The rest is a mystery (Cabrera HAS to be the SS) This all goes back on the manager.
As much as I hate the thought of it, they absolutely should blow this team as much as possible if they don’t get better immediately (which is unlikely to happen given the injury situation). I say you trade Lee, Pavano, DeRosa, Carroll, Betancourt, Wood, and (even though it makes me sick to my stomach to say this) Victor. The value of Lee and Vic with a year left on their early career contracts is considerably higher than it will be next season when their free agent years (and huge paychecks) are looming closer. Think what the Red Sox would pay for a guy like Vic right now? Plus he’s 30, so he’s not likely to get better than this. I hate saying it, but this is just the nature of the game in an unfair economic structure like the MLB has.
There seems to be a lot of young talent either on the team or in the pipeline on both the infield and out in the outfield. My big concern is the pitching – both the starters and the bullpen.
Regarding the starters, Lee is likely gone after next year, Carmona may never get it back together, Pavano was never intended to be a longterm situation, Reyes could be done for good, Westbrook may or may not have lingering health issues if he’s able to return, and the rest of the younger starters here and in AAA haven’t been able to show any consistency – Laffey, Sowers, Huff, Lewis, Jackson, etc, etc.
In the pen, Sipp looks promising and maybe Perez can get back on track at some point, but Wood may be too expensive to hold onto long term and the rest of the bullpen seems like a complete crap shoot.
I think we need to ship off most of our veterans for young arms to solidify the pitching. If we’re not going to be able to hold onto the guys we develop (see, e.g., Colon, CC, probably Lee, etc.), then we need to keep developing guys. That starts with better drafts, which the Indians have been HORRIBLE at executing and grabbing guys off other rosters, which the Indians have excelled at especially for fielders.
So here’s your core: Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, Valbuena with LaPorta and Brantley and Hodges waiting in the wings (amazingly, of this group, only Hodges was drafted originally by the Indians)
Guy you can’t get rid of even if you wanted to: Hafner
Guy you could part ways with if the price is right: Peralta
Guy you may have to part ways with if the price is right: Vic the Stick
Everyone else currently in the majors is expendable to me, though I think Francisco and Garko could be valuable role type players over the long term. I’m skeptical whether or not they have what it takes to be consistent performers.
@6
Agreed that it’s unfair…teams like Minny and TB and us have to be smart and put together young, cheap talent and hope it gels enough to make a run one year.
Boston and NY and Philly can contend EVERY year. The difference really is number of opportunities (or realistic odds of opportunity).
that said….absolutely the right decision is to get back as much young talent for anyone that we do not consider essential 2 years from now. I personally want Victor to stay for the reason that I think he will be essential, but if Boston offered us enough….maybe we let him go.
OOOOoooooOOOO I hope they offer us Ortiz for Victor – that’s every fantasy baseball player’s wet dream! If only Dan Snyder was running our team…
I agree with the firesale options. I think we trade nearly every veteran we have and have to play the young guys. Shapiro is great at trading for other people’s young guys, but we suck at drafting. The Tribe needs someone else to do this. Maybe if we trade off the salary of the vets, they can get a new internal scouting dept.
I love Victor Martinez, but I think we need to trade him. It would hurt, but it is the right thing to do. In the short term we can have Shoppach catch and the long term we already have Santana who should be the answer there. We should be able to get a lot for Vic.
I don’t know if I would trade Cliff Lee, unless the price is right. He is the only starter we have that I trust, other than Pavano (did I just write that?), and he is a short term answer. Normally the idea is that you don’t trade an ace, you try and build around them. The Yankees won their world Series titles without a big time ace, just good starters and a killer bullpen. When they added “aces” they didn’t win the Title. But the Sox won with Beckett and Schilling, the Phillies last year with Hamels, so I don’t know. We have a replacement for trading Victor, we don’t for Lee, so even though he will probably walk if we don’t pay crazy jack, he may have to be the exception.
Does anyone really know how good or bad Garko could be full time? Has he ever played full time? Somebody above wrote he isn’t the answer at 1st base, but are we sure about that? I know he gets big hits when we need them, when he plays more often than not. I don’t know honestly, but I think it is time to find out. Play him everyday out there.
We need a lot of changes and the season is lost. I think we have the fire sale and fire Wedge and build for two years down the road and hope the economy gets better in that time and that people will show up to watch our young guys play and get good.
Please, no more fantasy ideas about keeping Cliff Lee. The only issue is when we trade him, not if. The only way we don’t is if Shapiro thinks we’re primed to grab a ring next year (yeah, right). Otherwise, if he is healthy he will command an eight figure contract from someone, and it won’t be us. And if he’s not healthy, why would we want him? He has pitched himself right out of Cleveland, just like CC did, and just like Fausto will if he gets it back together one day.
The issue is not “but who else do we have.” If we’re not even competitive in such a lousy division with him, how does he help? So, the issue is: Can we get max value for him this year, or roll the dice that he stays healthy and try next year? If a trade doesn’t void the team option for 2010 (I have no idea) you would think that a team would give up more to control him for the remainder of this year and all of next. Fun to be an Indians fan in the Dolan era, right?
Lee is definitely gone. Remember, the Lee camp tried to reach out about an extension and Cleveland said “hell no.” And that was before we knew that last year wasn’t a total fluke. I know he’s great, but I think the thing that small market fans like ourselves need to do is stop seeing the players as people, but rather as commodities. That way, when we lose them, it won’t hurt as much. Depressing? Yes. Realistic? Unfortunately, also a yes.
wow remember when this team was good?
@ JM – it’s getting harder with each passing day.
If we are going to trade Vic shouldn’t we be looking at the Red Sox and some of their young arms? Buckholtz to start with. Remember what Texas was able to do with Texiera – great return because they got rid of him with 1 1/2 years left on his contract. Then see what the Braves got him him at the trade deadline last year – basically nothing aka Kotchman.
Another team to look focus on is the Yanks. They need a C for next year and even this year as insurance for the injury prone Posada. Plus you would have to think that CC would love to get Vic back. The yanks package would start with Hughes (who needs to get out of NY and was just moved back in to the pen).
Hamilton is talking about the MLB’s drug policy and referencing how the vague descriptions almost mystify things. Apparently one abuser (I believe it was the Twin’s starting pitcher) was caught smoking something and Hamilton & co. just were alluding to weed for a solid few minutes! (“it’s grown in CA, sometimes in the Midwest, sometimes in backyards, and sometimes in greenhouses,” their words!) haha
Victor is the man to trade. Take a look at what Catchers over 30 traditionally produce. Now think about what Victor could bring. Now thing about the organizational depth at the position. He should be the first guy to go.
yes, absolutely. let’s get rid of anyone that is any good and we can start all over again.
No one wants to give up the good players and start again, but what choice does Cleveland have? They won’t be able to re-sign Vic on the open market. His value will never be higher than this. If you trade him now, you get great talent in return. If you wait, you get probably two sandwich picks in the first round of the 2011 draft. I know what’s the best option there.
You know..this all makes me sick. So the Indians will unload two Cy Young winners in 2-3 years and also trade their only real hitter in Martinez. Great. Dolan–sell the team. You suck. The Indians never want to spend money –they keep sitting around hoping to get lucky on the bottomfeeders /bargains. I’m so frustrated with this organization!!!!
Can someone please explain to me why they have to trade Pavano? I mean we all ready know the pitching staff is in terribel shap efor the future. I agree, Lee will get traded, don’t like it, but I know it will happen. So why not start building next years rotation around Pavano? He’s pitched pretty good this year, and nearly excellent lately. So someone please explain why he will be traded?
Moose:
Because he is one a one year deal and we may not be able to resign him if he keeps going in the direction that he is going. Every quality start pushes his salary that much higher.
DO NOT TRADE MARTINEZ.