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September 3, 2009Browns vs Bears: What We’re Looking For
September 3, 2009While we still have to wait another whole week before the Browns season officially kicks off, those of us who follow college football can celebrate the beginning of a new season this weekend. Unlike recent years, when Ohio State opened up the season with Youngstown State or Miami (OH), this year the Buckeyes will face a team that can potentially be a nuisance to OSU.
While Navy isn’t exactly a modern powerhouse of a football program, they are a team that has had a lot of modest success lately. They have had 6 straight winning seasons and 6 straight bowl appearances. Over those 6 years, they have gone 51-25. And while they only went 2-4 in those 6 bowl games, they certainly hung around with far superior teams, losing by 1 to Boston College in 2006, losing by 3 to Utah in 2007, and losing by 10 to Wake Forest last year.
There’s no question Ohio State has more talent than those previously mentioned teams, but OSU faces a lot of turnover in their starting lineup, and their first game will ensure that they can’t afford to not get it put together quickly. For their part, Navy has lost a lot of players at the skilled positions, and so they too will be learning on the fly as a team, but Navy plays a style of football that can harass almost anyone.
Last year, Navy threw the ball an average of 7 times per game. You read that right. Only 7 pass attempts per game. When Navy actually did attempt to throw the ball, they were incredibly erratic, completing only 49.5% of their throws, for an average of 3.5 completions per game. Their leading receiver, Tyree Barnes (20 catches for 400 yards and 2 TDs) was a senior and has moved on.
Navy’s top 2 QBs last year were seniors, and so the job now falls to Ricky Dobbs. This is interesting because of Navy’s 3 QBs who played last year, Dobbs was by far the best at throwing the football (9-16, 212 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). There has been some talk after losing their top 2 RBs as well, that Navy could actually look to throw the ball more this year. But Ricky Dobbs was Navy’s 3rd leading rusher last year, picking up 498 yards on 106 carries and rushing for 8 TDs. Navy isn’t going to change their stripes, and OSU fans better be ready for a steady and persistent dose of triple option attack.
Last season Navy rushed for 292 yards per game and they averaged 55 carries per game as a team. This will be a major test for Ohio State’s young and inexperienced linebackers. All 3 linebackers will be new starters this year. Ross Homan will be responsible for watching the Navy FBs on the read, and then Austin Spitler and Brian Rolle will be responsible for containing the Navy slotback option and for turning them back inside.
Ohio State’s advantage on defense will be threefold. First, Ohio State’s biggest weakness this year on defense will likely be the secondary, and that is an area Navy will be unlikely and, most likely, unable to routinely attack. Second, OSU’s strength and most experience on defense will be the defensive line where Cameron Heyward, Thad Gibson, Dexter Larimore, and Doug Worthington are all returning. Combined with Nathan Williams, Lawrence Wilson, and Todd Denlinger, the OSU d-line is stacked with experience, quickness, athleticism, and strength. A key to defeating any option attack is being able to contain at the point of attack, and getting penetration from the d-line is how you accomplish that goal. The 3rd advantage for OSU on defense is the lack of size on Navy’s offensive line. While they are a disciplined and experienced group, the Navy offensive line is tiny compared to what OSU is used to seeing. Their left tackle, Jeff Battipaglia, measures only 6’4” and weighs just 256 lbs. In fact, across the board, Navy’s starting OL weigh in at 256 lbs, 265 lbs, 265 lbs, 267 lbs, and 260 lbs. Ohio State’s defensive line averages 275 lbs, with Heyward measuring in at 287 lbs and Larimore coming in at 300 lbs. The sheer size and strength of OSU’s defensive line should give them a decided advantage.
Ohio State’s weaknesses on defense are their inexperience and thus, most likely, a lack of discipline. When playing an option oriented team, you must exercise discipline and sound tackling. We don’t yet know how Ohio State will do on this. And while spread option and read option teams have tormented the OSU defense the past few years, this defense is a little bit different. This is the best defensive line OSU has had arguably since the National Championship season of 2002. The LBs aren’t as physical as past years, and their lack of experience has to be a concern to Coach Tressel. If Navy is able to disrupt and confuse the OSU linebackers, they will have a chance to control the ball and give themselves an opportunity to win. If the LBs hold their ground and make their tackles, you have to like Ohio State’s chances.
For the OSU offense, this year is Terrelle Pryor’s turn to shine, and the Navy defense should give the Buckeyes every chance to be successful on offense. At 6’6”, Pryor is taller than any Navy starter on defense, at 235 lbs he is heavier than all the Navy linebackers and all but 3 starters on defense overall, and in the neighborhood of 4.4 in his 40 time (probably not 4.33 as has been reported). The speed between Pryor and starting tailback Boom Herron should a lot for Navy to contain. Again, Ohio State’s offensive line will enjoy a massive size advantage over Navy’s defensive line. If you’re a fan of the Buckeyes, you have to feel good about their chances of being able to run at will on Navy. If they can’t, then it could be a sign of a long season for Ohio State.
Overall, this game will be a bigger test in the opening week than Ohio State is used, but it still seems on paper to be a game that Navy will need a lot of things to go right in order for them to win the game. If Navy can control the time of possession and keep their defense off the field, if OSU’s d-line is unable to penetrate and the linebackers unable to contain, then Navy has a chance to win. If Ohio State is unable to establish dominance at the line of scrimmage with their offensive line and thus unable to run at will, then Navy has a chance to win. A lot of “ifs” perhaps, but certainly not outside the realm of possibility. Outside the realm of probability, perhaps, but not possibility. None the less, I look for this game to be close early as both teams feel each other out and look for ways to adjust, but in the end, I look for OSU’s size and athleticism to be too much for Navy to overcome.
My Meaningless Prediction: Ohio State 27 Navy 10
14 Comments
Navy is better than anyone Penn State scheduled out of conference. In a year where the Big10 needs to win back some respect….they really did not do the conference any favors with that Minnesota-style schedule.
If we’re making predictions, I’m sure Navy will put some points on us so I would go with something like
OSU- 41
Navy- 20
Uh, mgbode – Minnesota has one of the tougher OOC schedules this year. If you’re referring to their past scheduling, then I agree. Air Force, ‘Cuse, and Cal is a pretty good OOC schedule for a B10 team.
Am I the only one who sees a little/lot of Vince Young in TP?
I knew this would happen. OSU fans constantly rip into ND’s schedule because they play the pushover service academies every year ( of course, Navy is the only one they play every year, but no matter), but as soon as OSU plays them it’s a good test.
I’m sure, later this year, when ND plays Navy, they will be a pushover once again.
Nope, they’ll be a team that pushes ND over again. That’s all.
I love how kevin projects my opinions on the difficulty of Navy onto ALL Ohio State fans. And I love how he also projects the opinions of some Ohio State fans on to me. Nifty trick.
For the record, Notre Dame’s schedule had no bearing on my opinions of Navy Football before or after this season.
Irish fans have become a sensitive group since the team moved to Division II a few years ba–wait, they didn’t? Still D-I? My bad.
@4 – I’m sure you’re not because everybody in the world has been saying it for atleast the last year.
@ Kevin – I’m gonna have to agree w/ you. *Ducks and covers from Buckeyes thrown in my direction*
But seriously, Navy is decent. OSU is still going to win the game w/o any trouble though, IMO.
sorry…yes, I was referring to how Minnesota has scheduled in the past.
@ B-Bo – LMAO! They should be DII. That’s a good one!
I like Navy’s offense just for the fact it’s different than anything I normally see in a Buckeyes’ opponent. Having said that, I’m sure by the 2nd quarter, I’ll be yawning thru 3 and outs when Navy’s O is on the field.
Buckeyes win going away, 38-10
My two cents on Notre Dame, they don’t deserve the attention that they get, and more often than not, most of their fans are super annoying and quick to remind you how good, historically, the Irish have been. How good have they been since 1988, or better yet, since Lou Holtz left?
p.s. Didn’t the Buckeyes beat on ND in a bowl game a few years back?
@12 Also a couple of regular season games, too.
By the way….78 days, 21 hours, and 22 minutes until Ohio State kicks the snot out of Michigan again.