While We’re Waiting… Ugly Browns Win, Homecourt Advantage, and Replacing Eric Wedge
October 12, 2009NFL Rumors: Miami Passed on Adding Edwards
October 12, 2009Every year the fine folks over at CelticsBlog set up a running feature of NBA blogger previews for every team in the NBA. Today is the Cavalier’s day to go under the microscope, so we offer up our team preview below.
2009-10 Cleveland Cavaliers Preview
Last Year’s Record: 66-16
Key Losses: Joe Smith, Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, Sasha Pavlovic, Tarence Kinsey
Key Additions: Shaquille O’Neal, Anthony Parker, Leon Powe, Jamario Moon, Danny Green
1. What significant moves were made in the offseason?
As Cavalier fans have grown accustomed to now, GM Danny Ferry once again refused to be passive in the offseason and went to work on improving a team that went 66-16 last season, but simply wasn’t good enough to beat Orlando in the playoffs. When you just look at the difference in caliber between the players lost and the players gained, you gain a greater appreciation for just how successful Ferry was in his mission.
I’ve heard plenty of analysts suggest they weren’t impressed with Cleveland’s offseason, but I think they’re missing the big picture here. Last year in the playoffs, the Cavaliers’ starting unit wasn’t the problem. The problem was when the Cavs needed to go to the bench, they were bringing in guys like Szczerbiak, Pavlovic, Gibson, and Wallace and asking them to make a meaningful contribution. It was asking too much of below average basketball players. Now this year, when the Cavs need to go to the bench in the playoffs, they’ll be bringing in guys like Delonte West (hopefully), Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Jamario Moon, Leon Powe, and a vastly improved JJ Hickson. These are guys who can contribute. Many of them were starters last year. This Cavs team is the deepest team this city has ever had, and the hope Ferry has is that the depth will keep guys fresh and give Mike Brown the needed flexibility to match up with almost any type of opponent.
2. What are the Cavaliers’ biggest strengths?
First and foremost is depth, but beyond that, the Cavaliers’ biggest strength is their versatility. Everyone knows about LeBron’s versatility, but Delonte West, Jamario Moon, Anderson Varejao, Anthony Parker, and Mo Williams are all capable of playing multiple positions. If Mike Brown wants, he can go with a lineup of Shaq or Varejao at center, LeBron at the 4, Moon at the 3, Parker at the 2, and Mo or Delonte at the point. On the other hand, he can go with a lineup of Gibson, West, LeBron, Hickson, Shaq. Or anywhere in between. Having so many mix and match parts is going to give Mike Brown the chance to create strategic advantages over most teams. The question for the Cavaliers will be whether Mike Brown is able to actually come up with ways to achieve this.
The other strength for the Cavaliers, of course, is their defense. Last season the Cavaliers were 1st in opponents ppg, 1st in opponents FG%, 1st in opponents 3pt%, 3rd in Defensive Rating (pts allowed per 100 possessions), and 2nd in opponents eFG%. The Cavaliers defense was all around great all season, and that was with Wally Szczerbiak playing 20.6 minutes per game. This year, the Cavs’ defense could be even better. You add Shaq who will be more of a presence in the middle against strong opponents than Ilgauskas was, and then you add Parker, Moon, and Powe (all good defenders) and suddenly this team has the potential to be even better defensively than they were last season.
3. What are the Cavaliers’ biggest weaknesses?
About a month ago, the answer to this would have been depth at power forward. After Anderson Varejao, there was some question as to who would be the guy to get minutes. The choices were an underachieving JJ Hickson or an under talented Darnell Jackson. However, that was before we heard about LeBron taking Hickson under his wing this summer and bringing JJ on the road with him wherever he went. LeBron worked with Hickson all summer, showing him discipline and teaching him what it means to have a work ethic. We’re seeing immediate results this camp as Hickson truly looks to have taken the leap and is starting to look like the impact player we thought he could he could be when the Cavs drafted him last year. A serious injury to any PF on this team will still create a problem, but the Cavs at least appear to have found a suitable backup for Varejao.
Which leaves the biggest weakness as PG depth. This weakness has been magnified since Delonte West’s arrest last month and his subsequent disappearances from the team in training camp so far. As of right now, the Cavs don’t have a true backup for Mo Williams. Daniel Gibson will be asked to play PG, but he’s really more of a SG than PG. Anthony Parker has played some PG in the past, so he may have to step in, and LeBron has been known to play Point Forward a lot as well. Last year it was Delonte who anchored the second unit by filling in for Mo at the point. The question marks surrounding Delonte’s personal issues are creating a major weakness in this otherwise solid roster.
4 What are the goals for this team?
There are simply no other goals for this team than to win the title. Period. End of sentence.
Last year the Cavaliers enjoyed a miraculous regular season in which they not only won their first division title, but they also finished with the best record in the NBA. They were genuinely happy at the time for achieving those goals, but this year will be different. That’s simply not good enough for this team, and this season it will be Championship or Bust.
5. What are the Cavaliers going to do without Delonte West?
This is such a sad and unfortunate situation for both Delonte and the Cavs. On the one hand, you feel bad for even thinking about how this affects the team on the court because Delonte truly seems to be a troubled soul who is really going through a rough ordeal right now. First and foremost, you just want Delonte to be healthy mentally and to find a way to be happy. If that means not playing basketball, that has to be ok with all of us, players and fans alike.
But alas, it’s impossible not to start thinking about what this means for the Cavaliers. In a perfect world, things will work out like they did last fall, when Delonte missed some time in training camp, but showed up rejuvenated when the season started and enjoyed the best year of his professional career. We already know Delonte is going to be suspended by the NBA for some amount of time due to his arrest, but we still don’t know how much time he’s going to need away from the team to deal with his personal issues.
The loss on the court is going to be felt by the Cavaliers enormously. With losing 3 of their top 5 three-point shooters (Szczerbiak, Pavlovic, and Kinsey), that leaves only Mo and Delonte. With Parker here now, that gives you 3 people who can shoot the three, and you hope that Daniel Gibson can re-find his shot. But without Delonte, the team is going to be a little thin on distance shooters.
The biggest loss, though, is in Delonte’s intangibles. He was 2nd on the team in steals last year, 3rd in assists, 4th in eFG%, and 4th in Win Shares. Delonte was 2nd on the Cavs in Net On/Off +/- Rating and was 10th in the entire NBA in that stat. The defense last year was a net –7.3 points per 100 possessions worse with Delonte on the bench than with him on the court. His replacement in the starting lineup, Parker, had a defensive net of just –0.9 with the Raptors last year. Ideally that number will improve with a better defensive roster in Cleveland, but that’s still a question that needs to be answered.
I don’t think anyone knows what’s going to happen this year with Delonte. If he can play and be the same old Delonte we know and love, this Cavalier team is going to be very, very good. If he’s not able to play, though, the Cavaliers are going to have some issues. Even if Parker plays great and makes Delonte’s loss in the starting lineup negligible, you still have questions in the 2nd unit. Daniel Gibson is an enormous step down from having Delonte or Parker coming off the bench. You can have Jamario Moon play the 2, but then that starts thinning out the team in other places. In other words, the Cavaliers deep down inside have to praying every day that Delonte can come back to the team and be a contributor.
Projected Finish:
Last year, everything went right for the Cavaliers. They rarely had multiple players injured at the same time, went 39-2 at home, went 26-4 against the Western Conference, and ran over their own Central Division with a 13-3 record. On paper this year’s version of the team is deeper, more talented, and should have the ability to be an all around better team than last year.
That’s on paper, though. The pessimist inside me worries about the team being able to stay healthy all year. There are a lot of teams in the East who look much improved this year as well. Then you have questions about Mike Brown’s ability to find a way to use all the different offensive players. And not to mention the whole Delonte West issue and the lack of depth at PG.
A part of me really does think this team is capable of winning close to 70 games this year if everything goes right. But the realist in me says that the odds of everything working out right for the 2nd year in a row are slim. So with that in mind, even though I think this year’s team is better, I think they are going to be less focused on the regular season and more focused on the postseason, and as a result, they will be one game worse this year.
My final prediction: 65-17
34 Comments
BASKETBALL!!!!
Season of Dreams
Wally, Tarence, Ben and Sasha being listed as “Key” losses gave me a chuckle. Maybe there should be a “Key Losses” category for Joe Smith and “Meh Losses” for those above.
“the Cavaliers’ biggest strength is their versatility” – Eric Wedge would love this team.
Seeing that it’s possible that the Cavs will not win it all this year, I would like to think that we wouldn’t blame it on Delonte’s absence, but I can smell that soup cooking already.
So we’re definitely not going to re-sign Wally, then? Why not?
I really don’t think there is any reason to think that Delonte will not be back this year. He’s at his most mentally-fit when he’s playing basketball and surrounded by his teammates, so the idea of him leaving the team to “heal” doesn’t sound like it’s even a legit possibility. He’ll sit out a few games, and then he’ll be back. Count on it.
@oribiasi Because Wally is washed up. He’s always been a step slow, but right now he has snail-like movement. And unfortunately, he’s lost some shooting touch as well… his percentages have been slipping for years.
@ #8: I see. Well, maybe we need him now for depth in the PG position, though. Or maybe Sasha, who is streaky but still better than no one.
I am just not sold on Moon yet. But maybe I will be.
Can’t we just flash-forward like that new TV show to October 27?
Nice overview, Rock!
The Cavs will be fine. Hopefully Delonte will be back by the All-star break and then he and Leon can give the Cavs some much-needed fresh energy. I also think 65 is a pretty high expectation, as it will take this team a little time to gel. Having said that, I really like the way we match up with anyone in the league, even the Lakers.
Go cavs!
@ oribiasi – If Wally is our backup point, cancel the season now.
I don’t think this team wins as many regular season games as last year’s. I think it is going to take a while to figure out who to play with who and for everyone to feel comfortable playing with each other, not to mention Delonte’s looming suspension. I’d be happy with 60 and a top-2 seed.
Just get us to April with a healthy Lebron, Shaq and Mo. Until then everything else really does not matter.
Also, Leon Powe might be the biggest signing no one realizes. Powe may only play 15 regular season games this year, but he will be fresh and healthy for the playoffs. Every championship team has that “other guy” who makes big play after big play. Last year for the Lakers it was Ariza. In another lifetime with the Bulls, Horace Grant/Dennis Rodman were always doing the dirty work. I think Powe has a little added motivation that the Celtics went with Rasheed Wallace and Big Cry Baby over him, and he will bring a little added toughness (besides Shaq) that this team definitely needed.
Rasheed Wallace thinks his presence alone is going to allow the Celtics to win 73 games. Try 53 games, gents.
Great review Rock. I’m excited and unlike the other Cleveland teams I don’t think my enthusiasm is misplaced.
The true tests are going to be Oct. 27th, Nov. 11th, and Dec. 25th. If we can handle Boston, Orlando and L.A. in the regular season, I will be much more confident going into the post season.
We had excuses for days why those teams worked us in the regular season last year and we heard how much different the playoffs are. Well, they weren’t. So let’s see what the new coaching staff can do with the offense and hopefully do some dominating!
@13, Great points about Powe. He could be a tremendous addition later in the season.
Agreed, DocZeus – Boston has gone from nearly unstoppable to old and decrepit (barring a miracle rejuvenation of KG) in two years. Adding Rasheed’s corpse to the pile isn’t going to do much more than add even more technicals to the team that led the league in them last year.
The East is now a two-horse race with Orlando. I love what we did in the off-season, but they looked like they lapped us in terms of adding depth:
keeping Gortat as a legitimate backup C, Brandon Bass is a beast and was majorly underrated @ Dallas, and Matt Barnes will fit their style perfectly.
VC for Turk is basically a wash at this point, but other than their complete lack of depth at PG, I think their second unit looks scarier than anyone else’s in the league.
In terms of how many games the Cavs will win this year make sureyou you remember just how bad some of these teams are. The Cavs can figure out chemistry and still win the majority of their games. I think the final number of wins will be determined by when they clinch homecourt milestones and how many games of rest are given out at the end.
Winning almost every home game again might be tough though.
@16, I don’t really agree with that. I think the Magic probably added more in terms of beating other teams, but I think they got worse in terms of how they will match up with the Cavs. Turkoglu was a 6’10” small forward who often played the 2-guard, which forced the Cavs to try to match up with West guarding Turkoglu. The size disadvantage was killer. As strange as it may sound, Vince Carter is a much better matchup for either West or Anthony Parker.
Matt Barnes is an upgrade over Courtney Lee offensively, but possibly not on the defensive end of the floor.
I think our offseason moves allow us to match up better against Orlando as well. Dwight Howard will not push Shaq around the way he did to Big Z, and Z will pull Gortat away from the basket when Gortat is on defense, making him pretty ineffective.
I think this review is dead-on in terms of the Cavs ability to match up with other teams… we have the players to match up with anybody now… it’s only a question of whether Mike Brown is able to do it.
As CelticsBlog would say, this NBA Blog Preview is “all around awesomeness.”
@ Anthony:
Then they would say “Get ready to hang banner #19 this year!”
What are the Cavs doing about offense this year? Last year, it was only after we saw them play real offense early in the season that we even began to hear about John Kuester.
Have they replaced him? If so, with whom? Can this person help them play offense in the postseason as well?
@21: Right now we can only speculate. Until we actually see what kind of offense they are running once the regular season starts, anything we write will just be guessing. We hear a lot of talk about wanting to play LeBron in the post more this year. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Cleveland Cavaliers’ major strength is their flexibility. Most Cavaliers’ fan knows about LeBron’s flexibility, but Delonte West, Jamario Moon, Anderson Varejao, Anthony Parker, and Mo Williams are all capable of playing multiple positions. If Mike Brown wants, he can go with a lineup of Shaq or Varejao at center, LeBron at the 4, Moon at the 3, Parker at the 2, and Mo or Delonte at the point. This will be their plus factor to win the game.
58-24 this year with some injuries but none major.
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I am at a point of anticipation where if the Cavs don’t at least make it to the finals, i might break. This team is the best shot the cavs are likely to get, and if they blow it, i would cry
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I think 65 is a touch optimistic. On the bright side, that means the Cavs are slowly becoming a more veteran team and are learning that while there’s value in the regular season, that only translates in June.
I like the Cavs chances. But what of LBJ’s personal numbers? Will they increase this year across the board, remain the same or drop in the hopes of getting teammates involved?
Bottom line… I agree with you. This team has its eyes on the prize, as they should. They may give less importance to the regular season while still understanding that a top seed is definitely in their favor.
Here’s my take on the NBA season….
http://sportschump.net/2009/10/19/your-2009-2010-nba-season-preview/1910/
I’d love to exchange blogrolls if you’re so inclined. I could use the midwest bias. Best of luck to your Cavs.