Holmgren Report: Linebackers
January 26, 2010Manny Acta Lights Up the Crowd at Town Hall Meeting
January 26, 2010
I love NBA trade season. Absolutely love it. Everything about it. I love spending time breaking down rumors of trades that have no realistic chance of ever happening. I love scouring the internet for every little tidbit and whisper I can find. I love debating the merits of potential trades with friends and readers of this site. I love it all because it’s fun, and it keeps me sharp. It keeps me consistently thinking about the game in new and different ways, and how the pieces in this giant puzzle really all fit together.
For all this exuberance over trade season, though, sometimes it’s worth sitting back and assessing the situation as it currently exists and asking an even more primal question: Should this team even make a trade at all?
My timing of thinking about this isn’t coincidental in nature. I was sparked to ask this question by reading something Brendan Bowers wrote on Stepien Rules yesterday:
“So why again is it that the best team in the NBA has to make a trade? All this Cavs team has done so far this season – as its currently constructed – is post the best record in the NBA to date, won the last five games in a row, and beat Kobe Bryant’s Lakers, Kevin Durant’s Thunder, and Dwayne Wade’s Heat (92-91) – without their second leading scorer (Mo Williams) – in the last three games consecutively. Looks to me like this team’s as legit a title contender as any in the league right now.”
It’s a fair question. Brendan is certainly right that the Cavaliers have become the NBA’s best team this season despite the league’s most brutal schedule and a recent string of key injuries. Already with a 4 game lead in the East, the Cavs now finally hit the easy stretch of their schedule and have a real chance to run away with the conference.
Here’s where I beg to differ, though. Remember, the Cavaliers did this all last season as well. They finished the year with the NBA’s best record, and for all their troubles they were rewarded with a stunning exit from the playoffs in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavaliers had some chances to improve themselves last year, too, and they chose not to. I approved of the decision at the time, but in my perfect hindsight, I now wonder if things wouldn’t have been different had the Cavs been more proactive in shoring up some weaknesses we all saw against the NBA’s elite teams.
I’m not going to sit here and say that I’m not more impressed with this year’s team than last year’s. I am. I think the way this year’s team shows no fear against the best teams in the league is encouraging and I believe the Cavaliers will have even more confidence heading into the playoffs this year. Having said that, though, I firmly believe that resting on one’s laurels is a dangerous practice.
Nothing in the NBA stays the same. If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse. Which isn’t to say the Cavaliers absolutely must make a trade just for the sake of making a trade. That’s not what I’m saying at all. What I am saying is that I take exception to anyone who thinks that Danny Ferry shouldn’t be talking to anyone and everyone to see what’s available and to see if there’s a way to make the Cavaliers even better. I fully reject this growing notion that the Cavaliers shouldn’t make themselves a better team just because they currently have the best record in the NBA.
If you watched last night’s game, you saw a great game and a great win for the Cavaliers. However, you also saw a bit of a lucky win. The Cavaliers overcame long stretches of atrocious offense and then needed Dwyane Wade to miss 2 FTs with 41 seconds left in the game and the Heat up 1 in order to secure the win. For added measure, they needed Wade to make a sloppy turnover to setup LeBron’s winning FTs. I understand that great teams make their own luck, but is it a 100% lock that last night’s Cavs team would beat the Heat in a 7 game series? Is it a lock that last night’s Cavs team would beat the Celtics or the Lakers in a 7 game series? I don’t believe it is.
That’s the #1 reason I still would like to see the Cavs make a move before the deadline. It’s injury insurance, and you simply can’t have enough players who can generate some offense. While Mo Williams and Delonte West will be back soon enough, there’s no guarantees they won’t reinjure themselves at some point. You can put your fate in the hands of lady luck, or you can make your own luck by getting yourself some additional help.
It’s a shame the Cavs don’t play the Celtics again before the Feb 18th trade deadline, because that’s the litmus test I would like to see Cleveland go up against. Remember, the Cavs are currently 0-1 against Boston this season, and while there’s no question that Cleveland is a much different and much better team than the one that played on opening night, the fact remains that we still haven’t actually seen with our eyes that the Cavaliers match up well against the Celtics.
No, the Cavaliers certainly don’t need to make a move. But what’s the harm in looking? Why would anyone want to just sit back and hope that this team is good enough? If Danny Ferry has a chance to make a move that removes all doubt about who the best team is, and I firmly believe that adding a guy like Antawn Jamison does exactly that, then I hope he does it. I hope he doesn’t decide not to do anything just because this team won a lot of games in December and January. When all is said and done, it will be the games in April through June that will define the legacy of this team.
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35 Comments
let’s not forget that one of their best moves hasn’t hit the floor yet. leon powe — if healthy — can be a hard-working beast for us. varajao attitude in a wider, more rugged package.
i loved him with the celts (we all remember when he beat the cavs in the garden by himself last year?)… i expect to be loving him in wine/gold soon.
A move for, maybe, Amare or David West or Antawn Jamison would not hurt things. But you are right, the team is pretty much set. I think they are exploring the trade options for one of those guys purely for the playoffs and creating more matchup problems. How many teams could defend Shaq, Lebron, Mo, and one of those guys all at the same time? None.
Sorry, the Cavs will never be 100% lock to beat every team in the league in a 7 game series. Even 75% is asking a lot.
If we do nothing this year I’m going to be more disappointed than last year. Hickson seems like super valuable piece. I’m increasingly frustrated by his play. Yeah he’s young and MIGHT develop, but we can’t wait 2-3 more years.
One thing people mention with trade options is “they’re not a great defender”. Today I was thinking, and if they are going to provide 5 more points on offense, who cares if we give up 2 more points on defense? All that matters is increasing your differential while still being able to lock down when necessary.
We don’t have enough Cap space this summer to sign Lebron and another big name guy (i don’t mean a Max player). So if we don’t make this trade we can’t sign another really good player. i.e. Jamision ish this summer, because Lebrons money will hold us over the Cap
We have to make a trade not just about this year but to be a contender in the next couple of years and to keep LBJ.
good call on powe, jim. however, i HATED powe with the celtics but i LOVE the possibilities with him on the cavs!
forget David west. the hornets are going to move bobby brown to get under the cap soon. david west isnt going anywhere.
i agree that the cavs dont HAVE to make a trade and they especially dont have to sell the farm to get something done. however, if a good opportunity presents itself (like Z + future second round pick for jamison), well i think theres no reason not to make that trade.
Cavaliers Don’t Have To Make A Trade, but Have No Reason Not To Either…
For all this exuberance over trade season, though, sometimes it’s worth sitting back and assessing the situation as it currently exists and asking an even more primal question: Should this team even make a trade at all?…
I would be shocked if Powe makes a meaningful contribution this year. Windhorst says he’s not even close to returning, and we’re talking about a guy coming off a catastrophic knee injury who didn’t have a ton of athleticism to begin with.
Good post. The Lakers didn’t HAVE to get Artest, but they still wanted to get even better. The Magic didn’t HAVE to get Carter, but they wanted to get better (The result is still up in the air). “If you’re not getting better you’re getting worse” was a very accurate depiction of the NBA.
The only caveat to that would be breaking up the core of Lebron, Mo, Varejao. That would be too inconsistent. Shaq seems to have worked out so far as a Cav, too. But outside of that, if it gets us another all-star, or even just improves the bench even more, we should jump in with both feet.
@ Swig: The way the Cavs win lately is by dictating the game with defense. If they lose that ability, it’s not something a little +/- will erase. We’re a defensive team, and every player needs to buy in.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=15078
Not trade related, but very interesting nonetheless. Could be complete BS too who knows.
If this team is completely healthy, I firmly believe this team, as currently constituted, can COMPETE with every team in the NBA in a 7 game series. But the Cavs don’t need to compete, they need to WIN.
That’s why I think they need to add a legit third scoring option like Jamison, or possible Amare.
NEEDZ MORE FIREPOWER
I think the Cavs as currently constructed don’t need to make a trade win it all.
However, the Cavs absolutely need to make a trade to keep contending going forward. Even if we keep LeBron this summer, the Cavs are never going to be as good as they are right now with him. Mo Williams isn’t going to get any better. Varejao isn’t going to be any better than he is right now. Z won’t be back next year and neither will Shaq.
The Cavs need to turn Z into something if they want to continue to be elite.
@Kevin: Thanks for sharing that link. I hadn’t seen that yet. IF, and this is a seriously enormous IF, but IF that story is true, then Danny Ferry better get something done regardless of what the impact on this season would be. He should be buttering up Steve Kerr in whatever ways he legally can and find common ground with him.
However, I have my doubts. I don’t believe LeBron will skip free agency completely. He’s been looking forward to this summer for way too long.
Everyone who thinks we don’t need to make a trade to win it all is misguided.
Shaq and Z will be that much more tired. And who knows what Mo’s shot looks like once he comes back. I’ve had that injury. It messes with you and your aggressiveness. And what about Delonte? Who knows what Powe gives you?
Boston is great at forcing other players to make shots. And if Mo disappears in the playoffs again, and Delonte is not with it, and Powe Power isn’t there, and Z or Shaq are hurt, and Lebron is tired…well, that’s bad news.
I know the Magic are having a rough go this season, but think about what they did last year, making it to the finals without Jameer Nelson. Could we still make a finals if one of our rotation players is out for the playoffs? No.
What about the Lakers doing it without Bynum? Could we do that? No.
Need another gun.
Just do.
You could have made a case for a trade better last season. This season, our wins and losses are too inconsistent to quantify into a need. I think last season you saw the Cavs had distinct strengths and weaknesses. Strength: LeBron/Delonte/Mo being able to score. Weakness: Height (across the board) and athletic bigs.
This season, they have all that. Every time they lose, it comes down to execution. Last season, they were blowing teams out by the 3rd quarter. This season, they are grinding out for the full 48. They start off the 3rd quarter slow, and they have to make up for it in the 2nd half of the 4th quarter (which results in awesome LeBron shows, but still).
I mean, I honestly cannot find any consistency in our losses this season other than not taking care of the ball and relying on Le-Iso too much.
If we stay put and don’t trade anyone, then we need to make sure everyone brings energy every night. Don’t know how that’ll happen, but Mike Brown needs to start lighting a fire under people’s asses in the locker room during halftime.
Amin, there is a very clear picture to our losses. It is as follows:
Early in the season we lost to teams with a tandem at the 4-5 who could shoot the ball. Boston (KG/Sheed), Toronto (Bosh/Barg), Chicago (Thomas/Gibson). This was because Mike Brown was still intent on trying the Twin Towers look. We gotten eaten by these teams.
We lost to Charlotte twice because they have the topped ranked defense in the NBA (yes, it’s true) and Gerald Wallace is the best Lebron defender in the NBA. They make other players take shots, and they missed them.
We took a loss to the Wizards in November in the second night of a home-away back-to-back in which we had no legs and the Wizards came in guns blazing (npi) and we never matched the intensity.
Since then, we have only lost games to teams because we didn’t take them seriously and never got up for them. Back-to-back to a Memphis team that had just discovered they might be good (it was the beginning of their rise that game) and scrappy Houston. And the Jazz game.
So, the pattern is…we are threatened and half to work hard against teams with a tandem of stretch bigs, especially Boston. And we struggle when LeBron gets shut down like against Charlotte because we can’t stretch the floor enough to unclog the lanes and give him avenues to get around Gerald Wallace type guys. And when we don’t get up for weaker teams (Nugs-Melo, Mavs-Dirk, bad teams) and Lebron can’t save us, we can’t cruise past them.
Hm, what could fix this? A talented four who can stretch?
NEEDZ MORE FIREPWR
@4/Keith: Agree.
Hard to replace Z’s height, but to me he seems to have either had trouble keeping his intensity up coming off the bench or he just has rapidly diminishing skills. Can’t understand why Windhorst keeps claiming he’s playing well. Don’t see it and think a good, new player would more than make up for what Z is contributing right now.
Cavs seemed to have figured out how to exploit Shaq in the offense. Not sure he will ever get another “and 1,” though. Blew some awfully easy point blank chances last night. Still, 50% of the old Shaq is more valuable than 70% of the old Z.
I think if we make a trade, I’m more comfortable getting Iggy than I am getting Jamison.
If we keep JJ after the trade deadline, we will Have JJ, Andy, Shaq, Powe, Z and possibly Jamison fighting over 96 (PF and C) minutes a night… Z after the buyout.
I think Iggy gives us a better scoring option. And would strengthen the weakest part of our bench. We would move AP to the bench and Iggy would be our second scoring option whilst Mo is injured and If Delonte gets suspended… IDK how realistic the Iggy trade is, I don’t know if we would have to deal JJ as well.. But If we can keep JJ and just move Z, wait for a buyout, then sign Z back.. I think Iggy would be better for this team.
Iggy would also give LBJ another all-star to tempt him to re-sign with the CAVS this offseason. Jamison is like 34.. realistically how long will Jamison be here in Cleveland?
@Roosevelt, and the only reason the game is close at the end is because we have long stretches of offensive ineptitude.
Chicken meet egg, egg this is chicken.
Given his place in the schemes, I would say that Z *is* playing well. He doesn’t get his number called nearly as much as last season, which means that he doesn’t have an opportunity to get comfortable out there. And I would argue that, while he doesn’t clog the middle like Shaq, he has been no more of a problem defensively that the Diesel. And he certainly shows more effort in running down loose balls than Shaq.
I’m not saying that Z is having a great season – far from it. But he’s being productive out there, which is something that you can’t say for many backup centers in this league.
The team may have enough to win this year as currently comprised, although that is still to be debated. However, if we want to keep LBJ we need to turn Z into something. We our over the cap for the foreseeable future so the only way to add a piece for the future is to use Z’s expiring. We CANNOT let that asset go to waste…
Jackson (#22) has it exactly right. This isn’t just the trade deadline, this basically is the free agency acquisition period for the Cavs. For the next few years, we’re likely to only have the midlevel exception available. If we want to add a true #2, or even true #3 option, it’s going to have to be via trade.
#22 & #23 – Exactly right. Yes, I think we need another guy who can score, who can get his own shot, for this team this year. But beyond that, these trade options are going to be our off season moves (beyond the big one). We have to make a move to make this team better for the next few years.
#22 & #23 & #24 exactly right. Hopefully Ferry uses his moxie to realize that we have no cap space for free-agent moves this off-season and now is his time to make a move for the future.
Troy Murphy would be the best risk/reward pickup. I don’t think it would take a lot to free him from cash-strapped Indiana, and his terrific offense (not quite Jamison’s numbers, but close) would put the Cavs over the hump. He is also 3 years younger than Jamison and an expiring contract next year. The Cavs don’t need an all-star, they need a solid & consistent performer. Murphy is a 14 pt., 10 asst. guy, and has shot nearly 40% in his career on 3 pointers. That’ll stretch the floor for you without tying up cap space in the next few years.
Of course, Jamison would be very nice. He has been my favorite non-Cav player ever since he single-handedly made the Cavs-Wiz playoff series competitive a few years ago when all the other big names were out injured for them. He’s awesome; but expensive.
Sorry- meant “14 pt., 10 rebound guy”.
even with jamison, hes not THAT expensive. we’d have him this year obviously and next year. the chances of a huge drop off by next year are slim. after that, if he drops off he is an expiring contract.
“Good post. The Lakers didn’t HAVE to get Artest, but they still wanted to get even better”
This is exactly why I don’t want to make a trade. Artest is a joke. Everyone here in L.A. would love to have Ariza back.
No, the Cavaliers certainly don’t need to make a move. But what’s the harm in looking? Why would anyone want to just sit back and hope that this team is good enough?…
Daniel J.W. Ferry: “I ALREADY TRADE TALK AROUND THE CLOCK!”
(That meme is still funny, right?)
@Anthony: Yes!
The Cavaliers need to make a move it’s that simple lets not be fooled, again, by regular season success. Come the playoffs the opponents are all deep in talent and until the Cavaliers present a second legitimate scorer besides LeBron James it’s to easy to defend them. Just make LBJ a jump shooter and pack the lane. The Cavaliers need an inside scorer hence the interest in Stoudamire, West, Jamison and maybe Murphy.
All I can think about is Orlando’s trade for Vince Carter, Dallas’s trade for Jason Kidd and (a little closer to home) the first round draft picks we gave up for the likes of Jiri Welsh and Sasha. Not quite working out as expected.
For all we know, this market for expiring contracts might be greatly exaggerated. It was last year when Portland was unable to move LaFrentz and the Cavs were unable to move Wally.
I’d love to get Jamison/West/Murphy for simply an expiring contract, but if it takes a combination of Hickson/Gibson/West/Z, two first round picks and the Cav’s taking back a crap contract (something like Elton Brand/Luke Walton/DeSagana Diop) I’m going to have to vote for playing the cards that are currently delt.
Good stuff Andrew, and what would the trade deadline be without debate…in response:
Last season:
While the records are comparable – this year to last – the rosters are not. Last year the Cavs did need to make a move at the deadline, and this year they don’t. I don’t think their record is the reason why they don’t though. The facts that they are deeper as a team (3 starters off last year’s team now come off the bench) and more versatile team this time around are the reasons. The record is an example of that depth and versatility. Could you have made that depth and versatility claim about last year’s team without being a relative of Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, or Wally Sczerbiak?
Danny Ferry shouldn’t be exploring:
To clarify, I take exception to the idea that Danny Ferry shouldn’t be talking to teams and exploring what’s out there as well. That’s his job. If there is a good deal out there for the Cavs where they don’t have to give up too much, to add an insurance piece – as you referenced – I’m all for that. I just don’t see the big name, impact caliber pieces: Jamison, Stoudemire, Igoudala, or whoever being able to be picked up without a major overhaul to the Cavs roster. Meaning, I am going to assume that the Cavs – if they even have the pieces to trade for these guys – would have to give up at least 2, and possibly 3 players out of their top 8 to land a guy like that. And that’s assuming JJ Hickson – the guy everyone in Cleveland wants to trade – is somebody that all these teams actually want to trade for.
No harm in looking to be sure, and no harm in debate either…and don’t forget about Leon Powe…
Brendan the Cavaliers are still a perimeter orientated team even with Shaq which is why I feel they need to go out and get that PF (Jamison) who can be an inside as well as outside scorer. You feed Shaq and let him to dish to Jamison and I promise unlike Hickson who can only score off of dunks you’ll see a whole new side to the Cavaliers offense. Not to mention what Jamison’s presence would do for LeBron James. The Cavaliers have to play at a high level in order to play with the Celtics and Lakers who’s depth allows them to have an off night. Because LA and Boston have more then one player who can lead the team on a given night they have an advantage unlike the Cavaliers who night in and night out are led by LBJ. Check the boxscores I’ll bet you noone on the Cavaliers has led the team in scoring for a game more then 6-7 games tops other then LeBron. As for Powe he’s apt to provide less then more given he hasn’t played a single NBA game in over a year and a half.