June 20, 2013

LeBron James and The Three Point Shot

February 20, 2010 by 30 Comments

57519907It was all the rage on Thursday night against Denver and it also haunted the Cavs against Charlotte last night. LeBron James loves hoisting up the three pointers and our friend Vince Grzegorek analyzed the situation over at 64′ and Counting yesterday. Many individuals have their own opinions about LeBron’s shot selection, especially late in the game, although nobody doubts his ability to dominate at the game of basketball.

While it is always entertaining to hear Austin Carr and Fred McLeod yell about three pointers from “deep in the Q,” there have been many times this season when the Cavs rely too much on this type of shot opportunity. With Antawn Jamison in town now as well, a guy who averages over five three point shots per game this season, expect more and more nights of 20+ attempts from deep. Can this be a good thing or is this always a bad thing?

Certainly, when LeBron shoots 1-for-9 from threes as he did on Thursday evening against the Nuggets there will be plenty of backlash from fans and commentators alike. Here is the explanation Vince gave against LeBron and his constant chucks from three-land:

That’s right, LeBron ranks 5th in the NBA in most 3′s attempted with 286 so far this year. Only Danilo Gallinari, Aaron Brooks, Peja Stojakovich, and Travor Ariza have more.

25.7% of LeBron’s field goal attempts are 3′s. 286 out of 1110.

His 35.3 shooting % on 3′s, however, ranks 77th in the league among qualified players.

Make sense? Probably not, especially when you have Boobie Gibson (ranked 2nd in %), Anthony Parker (ranked 6th), and Mo Williams (ranked 8th) on your roster.

While this is an absolute fact and something I cannot argue with in the least bit, it is also fact that the best teams in the NBA just happen to be the best three point shooting teams. Ever since the San Antonio Spurs win several championships with their inside-out style of play, it has been all the rage in the NBA. The Celtics, the Magic and now the Cavaliers have utilized the three ball to their advantage more often than not and rank among the league leaders yet again this season.

In fact, among the top 20 teams in three point shooting percentage, they have an average winning percentage of .567. The rest of the NBA has only a .366 winning percentage. Among the top 20 teams in three point attempts per game, they have an average winning percentage of .546 while the rest of the NBA is only at .406.

Just take a look here at the top five teams in the NBA in three point shooting percentage as well as the bottom five teams: 1) Cavaliers, 2) Suns, 3) Nuggets, 4) Raptors, 5) Spurs, 26) Bulls, 27) Pacers, 28) Clippers, 29) Nets and 30) Pistons. It is obvious in all of these reflections that the three ball is crucial to teams winning games in the 2009-2010 season.

So while fans can certainly make a case for LeBron James to take fewer three point shots per game, it is an essential piece to the Cavaliers puzzle. Over the past two seasons when LBJ has had the highest percentage of his field goal attempts be three pointers, they have also been the best two regular seasons of his career. Be careful what you wish for and I’ll take losses like the past two nights as long as the team can get into the playoffs and play their best basketball of the season.

(Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

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  • The Older Fos

    Still doesn’t explain why the team throws up 3′s possession after possession while they still hold the lead.

  • Alex

    The overall point I can agree with. I doubt there’s an easy way to compile this (and I certainly won’t) but I bet there’s a strong negative correlation between wins and/or margin of victory and games where more than a certain number of possessions result in Lebron holding the ball for at least 15-18 seconds and attempting a three.

    Successful three-shooting teams are certainly at the top as a general rule, but a closer look at those three attempts would probably be illuminating. Assisted three attempts, for instance, probably have a significantly higher make percentage than non-assisted, which probably have a higher make percentage than possessions involving zero passes. I would bet those three splits also correlate with margin of victory or wins/losses. I doubt people are miffed at Lebron taking 3s as a general rule so much as the LeISO and all those possessions where nobody else touches the ball.

  • MattyFos

    I hated the final minutes against Denver when LBJ wasted 3 shot clocks. He jacked a three up with like 15 seconds on the shot clock, Andy tipped it out and LBJ jacked it up again, essentially wasting 39 seconds that the team could have used to milk the clock.

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Jacob

    There is some strong correlation there. Attempting to incite some debate on the lazy Saturday afternoon. Didn’t do all of the dirty work, but over the playoffs and regular seasons for the past two years, the Cavs are 23-15 (.605) when LeBron attempts 7 or more threes.

    Since the team is 119-33 (.783) in the “Mo Williams Era”, that makes the team 76-18 (.809) in all other games.

  • MattyFos

    Jacob I like the 76-18 record when LBJ is jacking up 7+ three pointers…

  • MattyFos

    CORRECTION

    Jacob I like the 76-18 record when LBJ **ISN’T** jacking up 7+ three pointers…

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Jacob

    @MattyFos – True, true. That is pretty nice. But is that a better stat than the fact that the Cavs are 40-4 (.909) over this exact same time period when LeBron James attempts 17 or fewer shot attempts?

    That makes the team only 79-29 (.732) in all other games.

  • BrianRut4

    Do you think anyone on the coaching staff has ever suggested to LeBron that he not jack up so many threes?

    I’m honestly curious.

  • MattyFos

    @Jacob- Wow, 40-4 when LBJ doesn’t shoot more than 17 shots. That’s surprising. I think the team has a losing record when he scores over 40 points… That’s interesting.
    Would one go as far as to say that LBJ hurts this team? I’m not suggesting it, but it seems like the evidence is there for someone to make that argument.
    I’ve seen too many games where LBJ alone has kept the team into the game.

  • Bob

    “The Cavs are 40-4 (.909) over this exact same time period when LeBron James attempts 17 or fewer shot attempts”

    This is a great stat, but I hope it isn’t misread. Most would probably think it indicates that when Lebron doesn’t take up possessions, the Cavs are successful, but this is not true. It indicates either a blowout in which the rest of the team was hot, and Lebron did not have to take many shots, or a game in which Lebron was playing more of a play creator’s role, scoring less and passing more, which he has done a lot this season, evidenced by his average of nearly 9 assists per game.

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Jacob

    Conclusion: team performs best under these scenarios

    40-4 (.909) when LeBron has less than or = 17 fga
    48-7 (.873) when LeBron has less than or = 37 mins
    93-17 (.845) when LeBron has less than or = 4 to’s
    64-12 (.842) when LeBron has greater than or = 8 assists
    76-18 (.809) when LeBron has less than 7 3pa’s

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Udne9JTds5A TS T 2B Cavs Dude

    LeBron and his 3 pointers suffer from “Gambler’s Syndrome” the more he gets hot then he wants to gamble, raising the stakes and going deeper.

    This poor shot selection by everyone on the team is why we blow leads.

  • Mark

    @BrianRut4 – I am very curious about this too. I really wonder how the coaches communicate with LeBron about the 3s and the iso sets at the end of games. Do they discourage it? Are they intimidated by him so they let it go? Are they cool with it?

  • Akronbobby

    Wouldn’t it be the best of worlds to have LBJ pound the ball outside and then pass with five seconds left to any one of the three who can actually make a high percentage of three’s.

  • mgbode

    thanks for all the leg-work Jacob.

    so, basically, when LeBron uses himself as a decoy and dishes the assists like crazy instead of looking for his own shot first, the Cavs dominate.

    of course, if he ALWAYS did this, then defenses would adjust and the opposite would hold true….so, he needs to dominate the ball and continue to look for his shot, but understand this so he can catch the defense off-guard and help us win even more games.

    I still think Donyell Marshall missing that corner-3 in game2 against Detroit in ’07 was the worst thing that has happened to LeBron’s career (both the backlash he got for not taking that final shot and the lack of trust he seems to have at the end of games for his teammates since then)

  • mydogsnameisbuckeye

    @Cavs Dude

    I think that’s totally it. Its the whole gamble thing, and LeBron wants to command it all for himself. While I’m a huge fan of his, I’m also a fan of the Cavs. Someone else can throw up the three and has a better chance of making it. He just doesn’t have those clutch skills like Kobe. Not sure if this is his way to try and develop them or not, but it scares me sometimes and I hope it diminishes a little come playoff time.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Udne9JTds5A TS T 2B Cavs Dude

    LeBron, Jamario Moon, Boobie Gibson and other Cavs hanging out in Orlando at Millenia Mall http://img110.yfrog.com/i/dh1y.jpg/

  • http://www.sundaystrategy.com LoganCash

    I was only able to catch the last 5 minutes of the Nuggets game and I agree with everyone on this thread -I was yelling at the TV while LeBron was jacking up those 3′s.

    But, if you look at this from a larger picture, maybe LeBron needs to shoot 3′s on a regular basis to improve his overall game.

    The logic is simple. The more he shoots from downtown, the more people have to guard him tight at the 3 pt line. And, the more they do that, the more he can blow by them for his one-of-a-kind dunks.

    So even though his 3pt% might not be that great, it may help improve his overall scoring average in the long run.

  • http://www.msblsim.com boogeyman

    Jacob I mean Rain Man you really like those stats huh? Like they say you can find a stat for basically anything which is probably why I value them I don’t live by them. Stevie Wonder could tell you the Cavaliers take way to many perimeter shots the problem is the braintrust led by Mike Brown doesn’t do anything to stop it or slow it down.

    One of the reasons I was in favor of the addition of Jamison was because most of his shots come within the 3 point line but even he joined in on the 3 point party. That will end once he can do more then just set picks and drift after learning the offense which will help but until the Cavaliers can get someone, anyone not named LeBron James to drive the ball they will live and die by the outside shot. Watch a game and see how many times someone else drives and you’ll understand why the Cavaliers offense tends to struggle. Lets face it for as good as Mike Brown is supposed to be as a defensive coach he’s equally horrible on the offensive end.

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Jacob

    @boogeyman – I think I mentioned this earlier to you.. But Jamison is not a threat near the paint, he is primarily an outside shooter as we saw yesterday. Certainly, he will be more efficient than he was in Charlotte and will get better looks, but that is primarily his game.

    http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/?p=24861

    The previous link gave his career stats. As shown in his stats there, he takes 46% of his shots from 16+ feet. Last night, he attempted 7 of his 12 shots from this range, not too far of his normal pace.

  • http://waitingfornextyear.com Jaythetruth

    YES i question Lebron’s shot selection but i guess its one of those things where you take the good with the bad. I still rather have Lebron on my team then any other player in the league. Hes still the best and he still the best finsher in the game and thats where i get lost.

    Hes the best finisher in the game and he shoots so many outside shots. WHY? NOBODY in the history of the any league can stop Lebron from going to the hole.

    I’ll tell you when the cavs are at their best. When Lebron is going to the hole and kicking it out to the shooters. When Shaq is unstoppable in the paint and hes kicking it out to the shooters. When the cavs play inside out, we’re unstoppable.

    But thats in the late parts of the game, the last few games its been the defense falling apart. Over running picks and not getting our hands up. The basic fundamentals of the game.

    You can call it whatever but i will call it rust. We’ll get it together.

  • Tommy

    Jacob,

    Just from watching the games, it seems to me that there should indeed be a correlation between LBJ’s outside shot attempts and how the team performs. But my problem with your conclusions based on the stats is that 4 out of 5 are based on counting stats that will naturally be down during games where the cavs have large leads, which normally would come against the worst teams in the league.

    I would argue that in those situations lbj’s numbers being down is a product of the cavs playing well, not the other way around. There is no way that limiting his minutes and shots would contribute to the cavs being a better team. I would be very interested to see other stats though, like his shooting percentages vs. cavs record or the percentages of his shots taken from different spots on the floor vs. cavs record. It would also be interesting to see how these things change when the cavs are playing teams with different winning percentages or when the cavs play teams with other “star players” where lbj seems sometimes to get into a personal battle with players like Carmelo the other night.

    I can only hope that the Cavs employ people to look at things like these and that they have someone that can relay that information to James in a way that he would be receptive to. If Mike Brown can’t do it than someone else needs to. While I’m sure its tougher to correct him than most people, his drive to be the best seems like it should make him willing to accept any information that would make him a better and more productive player.

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Jacob

    @Tommy – I would absolutely agree with you. I would be the last person in the world to ever argue that LeBron James is not beneficial to this team. What we can learn from those statistics is what are the characteristics of a Cleveland victory, as I wrote about in this post from earlier in the season: http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/?p=23182

    In the perfect scenario, with all of the statistics imaginable at my disposal, I would try to compare how the first and second half numbers shape up in these situations. Usually when the Cavs take a big lead early, it is due to LeBron’s assisting, thus leading to fewer minutes, attempts and turnover possibilities in the second half. Such an explanation in a multitude of occurrences for this occasion would clearly explain the odd connection (not necessarily correlation) between those statistics and the success of the Cavaliers.

  • Bob

    I think everyone is overreacting here. No one was questioning his clutch skills or his shot selection over the 13 game winning streak when he was hitting huge shots and making great plays (OKC@CLE, MIA twice, ORL@CLE, LA@CLE, etc.) To say that his shot selection is poor or that he isn’t clutch based on the results of just one game (coming a full week after his last game) would be wrong, IMO. He’s been hovering around that 39% mark from the three point land since after last year’s all star break, yes there are others who shoot higher percentages from three, and he isn’t afraid to pass to them in tight situations (see OKC at Cle from a few weeks ago). The notion that Lebron is a bad shooter is completely false though, considering that Steve Nash is the only player in the league that takes a lower % of his jumpers off the dribble or unassisted.

  • JM

    Guys come on do you really think the coaches tell LeBron what do at the end of games? Really??

  • Alex

    Bob, I don’t think anyone has the notion that he’s a bad shooter. Now, if you had said people have the notion that he shouldn’t get sucked into the LeISO and take bad SHOTS, yeah. Or that he should have his teammates involved MORE, yeah. I think most people would agree with that. Nobody is overreacting to anything. Simply, Lebron dribbling and jacking up a three is a lower percentage play than Lebron driving and dishing out to a wide open teammate who is better at shooting the three. Plenty of people on here have in fact been complaining about this before, during, and after the 13 game streak. You maximize the odds of a successful play (as in scoring points). Lebron dribbling for 20 seconds and then attempting a 3 does not do that. That’s why you can point to one of the couple of instances where he passed it out when the game was on the line with one shot to take – there are so few of them.

  • Bob

    But Lebron is not alone in doing this. When the game is on the line Kobe, Carmelo, Roy, Durant, Billups, Pierce will all run isos, dribble out the clock and jack up jumpers or dive and create contact

  • http://www.msblsim.com boogeyman

    @jacob well if Jamison averages 46% from 16+ feet the counter would be that he attempts 44% from inside that mark which isn’t bad. I’m pretty confident once he learns more plays and guys you’ll see him around that % but for the first few games he’ll probably be more pick and pop. Hopefully the pop starts today against Orlando.

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Jacob

    Jamison’s shot selection: 54% from inside 16 feet, 46% from outside 16+ ft

    Jamison’s shooting percentage: 54% from inside 16 feet, 35% from outside 16+ ft

  • Greg

    I have been frustrated a number of times by bad 3′s from LeBron, but it seems kind of unfair to compare his 3pt percentage to Boobie, Mo, and AP, since those guys are getting open looks mostly becuase of LeBron (and not creating open looks for LeBron). It seems what the stats mostly tell is that if LeBron is able to make something happen–either for himself or someone else–that is better than when he is defended well and unable to create anything. Plus, I don’t mind him shooting at least a few more 3′s than his percentage would indicate that he should, because he needs to keep the defense honest so he can make those unstoppable drives to the basket.