NFL Draft: One guy’s quarterback class assessment
February 1, 2010Guest Post: A First Look at the Eastern Conference Playoffs
February 2, 2010While We’re Waiting serves as the early morning gathering of WFNY-esque information for your viewing pleasure. Have something you think we should see? Send it to our tips email at tips@waitingfornextyear.com
“The Cavs still have a problem. Believe it or not, those problems—along with the good times—started rolling as soon as James took the floor for his rookie season.
That is because the Cavaliers became a good team almost immediately. This impeded their ability to add more players of James’ age through the draft. Instead of building a nucleus around their franchise cornerstone, the Cavs added veterans and journeymen role players to build around a superstar who was barely 20 years old. In short, they were stuck playing for the present instead of the future.
When your franchise player is barely old enough to legally buy his own drink at the bar or club, surrounding him with 30-somethings is never the best strategy to take.” [Amar Panchmatia/Wine and Goldrush]
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So this year’s forecast of 77 wins isn’t a good estimate? “Keep in mind that the standings — all of PECOTA’s goodies, actually — do not factor in things such as injuries, trades, luck and other variables. So, even checking last season’s PECOTA-based standings — which pegged the Yanks as AL East winners — requires large grains of salt. They picked the [Cleveland] Indians to win the AL Central, for example. It wasn’t just luck, or trades or variables that prevented that from happening in ’09. The Tribe just stunk. Hey, nobody’s perfect. Computers are people too.” [Big League Stew]
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Julius Peppers, anyone? [Lake Erie Soldiers]
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Hip Hop Hooray! “The Cavs have partnered with Bent 360: Medialab to begin using Crowdwave during games. What’s Crowdwave? Glad you asked. The Website describes it as a, “mass participation, interactive, entertainment experience, controlled by yours fans, simply moving their arms.” [VLW/’64 and Counting]
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So one more time/for old time’s sake: “Say what you will about him, but I’ve come to quite like his podcast – he has interesting guests and there’s an enthusiasm and casualness to it I like. He’s also fairly aware he maybe needs to step back from the NBA trade machine a bit – he freely admits his craziest trade suggestions are indeed crazy at times. However, on his show with JA Adande the other day, he was totally serious (it seemed) in his opinion that the best basketball situations for LeBron to go to are Chicago and the LA Clippers. Not only that, but he completely discounted the Cavs as anything more than a remote possibility.” [Brian Spaeth/Brian23.com]
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(Photo by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images)
34 Comments
Amar’s piece is exactly what I’ve been saying for a while now. Good piece.
There is no way we get Peppers. None. Can’t even imagine adding that kind of salary to the D-line. Corey Williams+ Shaun Rogers + Peppers would equal the most expensive D-line in the league.
i listened to that BS Report podcast and thought simmons was nuts with the chicago assertion. he truly thinks chicago is going to land Bosh AND lebron. i can see throwing it out there as a topic of conversation since its a fun thing to discuss. but at one point i think Adande asked “if your life depended on it, where do you think lebron will go.” Simmons stuck with Chicago. Adande (almost reluctantly or apologetically) said Cleveland. so if bill simmons’ life depended on the answer of “where will lebron sign”, he would go with Chicago? wow.
There is NO WAY Lebron goes to Chicago. For no other reason then it’s Michael’s town. James could go there and win 10 titles in a row, but it will always be Mike’s town. Period. For that reason alone he would never willingly sign with Chicago.
That and the fact he’s not leaving Cleveland.
hometown + max salary + Dan Gilbert + chinese owners advertising connections = lebron is re-signing.
Sigh. All the “where is LeBron going to go” talk is just…pathetic. If you cannot state, convincingly, WHY he would leave the Cavs then the rest is just BS. Really. Why would he go? We have one of the best teams in the league that has only gotten better with better players each year. Really, why would he go? If he was in NY instead of Cleveland this wouldn’t even be a topic of discussion.
The reason all these national sportscasters think LBJ is leaving Cleveland is reflected perfectly in the All Star voting. They think LeBron is solely responcible for putting up the best record in the NBA, and everyone else on the roster is a bunch of scrubs. It’s like they don’t even watch the Cavs play, when we have 5 or 6 different guys scoring double figures a night, or nights we get 45 pts from the bench, na.. it’s LeBron, everyone else there sucks. The funniest thing is when Shaq came, everyone was wondering how he’d handle clashing egos with LeBron, and now in the eyes of the (national)media he’s just lumped into that “just another scrub” category. I like Simmons a lot, but really I think he has ADD or something. One minute he writes a 5 page article stating why the Clippers are the worst team in NBA history and why Blake Griffen should play in Europe, and then in his next breath he thinks LeBron is going to sign there. Makes no sense.
The problem with ESPN (and thus, Simmons) is that they need to yell and scream radical ideas to get heard, and then they themselves start to believe their own bombast.
Simmons is also a Clippers season ticket holder. He doesn’t “think” Lebron would sign there, he “wants” him to because he’d get to watch the greatest player ever 41 times a year.
1. “In short, they were stuck playing for the present instead of the future.”
Stuck? I’d venture that most Clevelanders are sick of playing for “the future,” primarily because the future never arrives here. Otherwise this site would be called “Reveling in This Year.”
2. “. . . requires large grains of salt.”
What the writer meant to say was “requires extremely tiny grains of salt.”
In case you havent figured out how to get attention in the media, say something radical about Lebron James in 2010. It’s that easy.
Lebron is going to New York/Chicago/LA/Ohio State/Europe.
Lebron is going to play for the Monstars.
@ Tron
Absolutely right on, and most fans outside of Cleveland (especially in the NY/NJ area) have adapted that exact same general mentality about the Cavs.
thanks again for the shout out today guys!
-julius peppers would like really good in the Browns front 7 if that were to ever happen.
@ Mark – if the word play was intentional…bravo. still fun if not.
@ Roosevelt/Kensha – +1
I understand Amar’s point, that building through the draft is often times better. But is he saying that since LeBron was so good from the get-go and he made our team significantly better instantly that that in turn ruined our chances at high draft picks (if we had kept them)? OKC had the option of building through the draft because Durant needed a few years to mature, whereas LeBron didn’t. So, in essence, Amar is saying LeBron screwed us by being too good too soon? That’s a hard position to stand by. Beggars can’t be choosers.
In all seriousness though, I feel like there is one thing that no one talks about in this forecasting. Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel like I have a pretty good pulse for LBJ2K10 action. The forgotten factor is as follows:
The NBA, despite what our obsession with video games, fantasy leagues, and trade machines leads us to believe (if only subconsciously) is anything but. Chris Sheridan on his NBA chat yesterday hosted a number of posts from angry Clevelanders/Ohioans as he too spouted off about where LBJ might land. Eventually, he posted the following as a response to a defense Buckeye: Knicks w/o LBJ = Cavs w/o LBJ.
This got me thinking…personnel-wise, I could at least understand, not necessarily endorse, but understand the comparison.
But then you realize, inserting LBJ on the Nets or Knicks or Bulls with “good young talent” (which all those teams have to some degree – the Knicks less-so) does make those teams instant playoff contenders…but it does NOT make them instant championship contenders.
Brook Lopez and CDR don’t know anything about the playoffs. The toughness. The grit. The pressure. Gallo and David Lee (if he even remained a Knick)? Chandler? D’Antoni? You need defense. You need playoff experience. How many rookies do you see plowing through the NBA to the championship echelon? How many young guys? No one really. Not LBJ; not Durant; not anybody.
I feel like people casually allude to this point in saying, “Why go there? So he can rebuild again?” But it’s so much more than that. It’s putting championship aspirations on hold for AT LEAST another season to go to a team filled with young, promising players who haven’t sniffed meaningful games since college.
“despite what our obsession with video games”
speaking of… NBA Live 2010 on XBox is unbelieveable. I saw it for the first time this weekend, I can’t get over the graphics. They even have montages run during timeouts and dead balls. Insane.
Tron: Right on, brother. Glad to see I’m not the only one watching the games. We have a team.
As for draft picks: We’ve gotten young pieces together, one way or another. Boobie, Jawad and JJ are all quality pieces.
Who is going to beat the cavs in a 7 game series? Orlando blew themselves up with Vince. The Celtics are moribund. LeBron’s athleticism trumps Atlanta. That leaves Lakers and Denver – I like our chances.
2K10 v. Live 2010 thoughts, anyone?
@10 – LeBron + the Monstars are 5-point favorites over Michael Jordan and the Looney Tunes on a neutral court. No doubt.
Mike- Agreed, I also read the Monstars have the cap room to sign more than one superstar free agent too. Sounds like a scary team.
@erich – Don’t get carried away. We are an injury away from bad things happening without making a trade. I’ve highlighted this before. Championship caliber teams should be able to get to the ship if one of their prime rotation contributors goes down. Like ORL with Jameer or LAL with Bynum. Could we do that? Could we blow past these teams without Mo? His injury is one of the most likely to recur (see Dwyane Wade and me). What if Delonte’s other team doesn’t reach a plea? His court dates will be set to begin right around playoff time. What if Shaq is down?
I’d feel much more comfortable with one more piece.
@Kensha/Mike – Did you guys hear the rumor that John Calipari was going to flee UK in order to replace Bill Murray as head coach?
More fun question:
If a fat, power-grubbing alien were to try and assemble the 21st Century Monstars, or the 2k10 Monstars, as a means of enslaving a group of beloved animated characters, which players would he choose?
Varejay’s got it right. Simmons is nuts about Chicago. LeBron may leave Cleveland but not to go there. Simmons may be right that it could be the best basketball situation for LeBron if the Bulls could land Bosh too, but there’s no way LeBron would want to go play in Michael’s shadow there. I actually think that’s a major selling point for the Cavs – LeBron already is the greatest Cavalier ever – he has a chance to make this organization permanently identified with him in a good way.
Simmons is a buffoon. A Boston/New England fan who just loves to spout off so people can pretend to listen to him.
HEY EVERYONE LOOK AT ME, I’M A BOSTON FAN AND I’M COOL!
ja
@Jack
You must avoid Kobe and Lebron, I’m drafting:
C- Dwight Howard (Ewing), PF- Dirk (Bradley), SG- Dwayne Wade (Johnson), PG- Chris Paul (Mugsy)
And the last F- Sir Charles Barkley ( You just cant replace greatness)
@jack
we seem to be playing some good ball without our two best guards and we did alright w/o shaq last year… im just sayin’ we might be champ caliber already.
@Todd – I wouldn’t say we did alright last year, given our standards. I mean, yes we had two playoff sweeps of teams that we were much better than…
…but we had the best record during the regular season and got beat up by the Magic.
Now, I watch a lot of basketball, as you probably do, and I agree that we are much better suited to overcome those challenges this time around. But if you think we can last 7 games with the Lakers or even the Celtics (if they are healthy or, more scary, if they trade Ray Allen) without a rotation player, you’re probably in the minority. Sure, LBJ can sustain us for now, and the mini-Shaqessance. But that is not sustainable.
@Kensha – I was also going to go with Paul. DWade is a good pick, as is Howard. I was having trouble in the front court trying to decide between Yao/Dirk/Howard. In some ways, I feel Yao is indispensable. Tallest guy in the league (which was something the alien boss wanted). Would definitely have that sort of “slow” vibe. Feel like Nash could also replace Paul. He’s fun. And is a better pure ball-handler/passing-whiz I think, which was more what they were looking for the in PG.
I can’t believe I just wrote what I wrote.
@Jack
What trade are you looking for? What is out there? Amare and Jamison are poison apples from the contract perspective. (Please god, not Murphy. We all saw first hand what he brings last week.) You’re also going to have to give up some young pieces.
I admit that the idea of LBJ pick and roll with Amare is seductive, but I’m afraid that trade weakens our interior defense (particularly if we move Shaq for him).
@erich – Honestly, the more I think about it, the more the idea of Iggy excites me…
…Mo, Delonte, Iggy, Bron, Andy as a core for the next 4 sounds good to me.
I would snag the other two in heart-beat. I think Jamison still has two years left, then he is a big expiring contract in the third year.
Amare is too damn good offensively to pass up. Sure, it might take time to get him to pay defense. Maybe he would never learn. But he’s been playing for a team that (sans one season sort of) has explicitly stated it won’t play defense. Not a team that tries to but fails. Or has a coach pushing them too without responding. They straight-up declare they are going to out shoot you or lose.
The bigger question is, what are we saving the money for? Nothing. Because we still won’t be under the cap even if we renounced right to Shaq and Z. Which means this is our only chance to make a move.
Give me Iggy. I don’t care if he can’t shoot. He has a lower % because he is always taking fadeaways. Playing with LBJ is worth an extra 3-4% in the FG% category.
And with that core, it’s an exciting time. If the Lakers managed to pull something crazy and get Bosh, it would mess everything up. Otherwise, the Lakers are aging, the Celtics are increasingly decrepit, Dwight Howard looks incapable of learning a post game, the Spurs are dead.
LBJ could stay here and have a nice 2 year window with those teams fading and the upstarts (OKC, Memphis, ATL) just not being ready. I think that’s an interesting thing to consider.
Jack – although I like him at points, I have thought Simmons initials are appropriate.
LeBron would be the first player to play for less money and that is unheard of because no athlete has ever done it. If he leaves that is what would happen. It makes no sense to go somewhere else. New Jersey is 4-40 and it would take him another 5 years to rebuild yet again. New York? Not even .500 and they can’t afford him. Cleveland just makes sense. More money, hometown, king of the city, and a local media that adores him.
The big question for next year is, to me, at center.
I would be shocked to see Shaq and/or Z, next year, as starter-quality personnel.
Answers?
Remember, this is the same Bill Simmons that said LeBron’s career arc would follow Martina Hingis.
When LeBron resigns with the Cavs, he’ll probably credit himself for the decision.