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March 4, 2010While We’re Waiting… Hickson’s Progression, E-Knicks Fans, and Tressel Talks Acceptance
March 5, 2010
In six short weeks, the Ohio State men’s basketball team has gone from an unranked team (uncertain on when its best player would return) to the number 6 team in the country and Big Ten regular season champions. The Buckeyes are 21-4 with probable national player of the year Evan Turner healthy and in the lineup. OSU finished its season on Tuesday with a win over Illinois and already clinched the #1 seed in the Big Ten conference tournament which starts a week from today. But can the Buckeyes clinch a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament?
Three of the four number 1 seeds are pretty much locked up by Kentucky, Kansas, and Syracuse but a fourth remains up for grabs in this notoriously weak year for NCAA tournament resumes. OSU has finished its season without any hiccups. In the past 5 days, top 10 teams Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas State, Duke, Purdue, and Villanova have all lost games (with West Virginia playing at Villanova this weekend, another top 10 team is guaranteed a loss).
If OSU wins the Big Ten Tournament, they could capture that last number 1 seed. At this point, the stiffest competition with OSU for the last #1 seed is Duke. While Duke lost last night at Maryland, should they beat UNC to finish off the regular season (easy) and move through the ACC tournament to capture that title (tougher, but a tourney where the Blue Devils always have great success), the Blue Devils would have a strong argument even if OSU wins next weekend in Indy.
After Duke’s loss last night, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi actually moved Kansas State into the fourth #1 seed – a curious move considering that the Wildcats were blown out themselves last night by Kansas. A lot depends on the success of OSU, Duke, and K-State in the conference tournaments but today OSU has the positioned itself for that last #1 seed and has probably the easiest road to their conference tournament crown. Ohio State’s resume:
Record – 24-7 (14-4 in conference)
RPI – 28
Strength of Schedule – 76
Record in Last 12 – 10-2
Good Wins – (RPI 1-25) Cal-neutral court, @Purdue, Wisconsin, @Michigan State
Bad Losses – (RPI 101-200) @ Michigan
Both Duke and Kansas State have a much higher SOS and have top 5 RPIs. Another team to keep an eye on is Villanova who could get a 1 seed if they beat WVU this weekend and march through the daunting Big East tourney at MSG. But the push that OSU has made over the last month has certainly put them in position to capture that number 1 seed.
Their resume in games with Evan Turner is convincing. With Turner they are 21-4 and without him they were 3-3, which included that one “bad loss” on their resume at Michigan. The NCAA, when considering OSU’s resume, will most likely take into account their resume WITH Turner in the lineup as that will hopefully be the team that takes the court in the tournament. Which brings us to why this final #1 seed has opened up so much – the injury to Purdue’s Robbie Hummel.
Both Purdue and Michigan State have winnable games on their schedule which will most likely tie them with OSU for the Big Ten regular season crown. But the injury to Hummel changed the entire conference and NCAA tournament landscape. Purdue promptly lost their first game without Hummel against MSU this past weekend. They should beat lowly Penn State to finish the regular season and then have to prove themselves in the conference tourney as a team that can carry on successfully without Hummel. Purdue is still a very good team without Hummel and can win next week in Indy but as SI’s Andy Glockner wrote last week:
The selection committee will have to judge the entirety of Purdue’s work under the prism of the small sample coming without Hummel, because that’s the team that will be in the NCAAs.
They should use the same method when looking at OSU with and without Turner and seed the team that will be taking the floor.
ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and Yahoo all currently project Ohio State as a 3 seed. But the tumult of Championship Week and a Big Ten tournament crown in addition to the regular season championship could push OSU into that final #1 seed. You should keep an eye on the winner of this weekend’s WVU-Villanova game, Duke, and K-State during championship week. The conference tournament will be difficult for the Buckeyes themselves with what is basically a 6 man rotation and a potential schedule of 3 games in as many days. Regardless, it is a feat that Thad Matta has OSU is in position to get a protected top 3 seed even if they do not make it to the top line.
(AP Photo/Terry Gilliam)
9 Comments
Good stuff, I wouldn’t surprised to see WVU pass us up with a win over Nova and a strong showing in Big East Tournament. Especially considering their head to head win over us (in a game that could have gone either way in Morgantown).
I don’t see them getting a #1 seed even if they win the Big Ten tourney. However, I do think they could end up a #2 seed and would love for them to end up the #2 in Dukes bracket. I think they match up really well, and could take that region.
There aren’t many teams I can think of that I would feel tOSU couldn’t beat…maybe Syracuse and/or Kansas?
Either way, I can see this team making a run to Indy, where there would be a huge Buckeye presence. Turner alone can put this team on his back, and if Buford, Diebler, Lighty, or Lauderdale get hot as well it could be a really exciting March!
OSU has as much of a chance of getting a #1 seed as I do being able to maintain a normal diet of sugary and fatty foods without use of insulin.
It would take a dominant Big 10 tourney run. A 28 RPI isn’t #1 seed material, unless they completely discount the games Turner sat out.
Although a #1 seed would be nice, I definitely see it as a long shot. I see Villanova and Duke as much better candidates, especially if they win their conference tourneys. OSU definitely has one of the best starting fives out there, but with very little depth and a weak strength of schedule I can’t see them getting the #1 seed. I think if they do well in the conference tourney and make the final, they should be in position for a #2 seed, but that’s as high as I’d rank them.
Jay!!!!
id be happy with a #2 seed and a favorable draw.
With 7 losses I don’t think they deserve a number one seed. 2 would be coo!
OT: And this just in, via Windy’s tweet: Z is returning to Cleveland, thanks in no small part to fan support.