The NBA’s Race for Home Court Advantage

It’s that time of the year again where the top teams in the NBA are battling for playoff positioning. Last season, the Cavs were able to secure the top-seed in the East as well as the entire league with their 66-16 record. Setting the pace for the league yet again this season, here is a look at what the team needs to do to secure the top seed.

For the second year in a row, it is obvious that the only two contenders for the top seed in the NBA are the Cavs and the Los Angeles Lakers. Trailing Cleveland by three games for the best record in the league, the Lakers are looking like the favorites from Western Conference. While home court advantage certainly does help a team come playoff time, it takes more than just that for a team to win the NBA Finals title in June.

With all this in minute, take a look at the standings, odds and other assorted numbers behind the race for the best record in the NBA as well as each conference.

NBA Standings
Cleveland 51-15 (.773 pct, magic number = 13)
LA Lakers 48-18 (.727 pct, magic number = 20)
Orlando 46-20 (.697 pct, 5.0 games back)
Dallas 45-21 (.682 pct, 6.0 games back)
Denver 44-21 (.677 pct, 6.5 games back)

With just 16 games left for the two main heavyweights, it certainly looks like it will be difficult for the Lakers to catch up. The Cavs only have to go 13-3 the rest of they way in order to guarantee home court advantage for the entire playoffs. The Lakers, on the other hand, have to have any combination of 20 wins and Cleveland losses in order to grab that away. So even if LA wins out for the remainder of their schedule, they will still need some help in the form of four more losses by the Cavaliers. Pretty good odds if you ask me, but we learned last year that a team needs to be able to kick it up a notch in the post-season no matter what.

Eastern Conference Standings
Cleveland 51-15 (97.4% at #1 seed, 2.6% at other)
Orlando 46-20 (92.4% at #2 seed, 7.6% at other)
Atlanta 41-23 (58.2% at #3 seed, 37.2% at #4 seed)
Boston 41-23 (37.1% at #3 seed, 61.0% at #4 seed)
Milwaukee 35-29 (61.5% at #5 seed, 23.6% at #6 seed)

It definitely looks pretty rigid at the top of the East this season. The Cavs and Magic control their own destiny for the top two seeds the rest of the way, while it looks like the struggling Hawks and Celtics will duke it out for the right to avoid the Cavs in the second round. Atlanta has the edge for now, but considering their records are tied with 18 games left each, anything can still happen.

The upstart Bucks have supplanted the Raptors as the #5 team in the Eastern conference recently. Their hot streak gives them a pretty good shot at one of the least desirable conference seeds in the NBA. As it stands right now, they will play a pissed off Hawks/Celtics team in the first round and if they manage to win that series, then they would get to play LeBron and the Cavs. Not a good spot to be in. Just for information’s sake, the pesky Bobcats currently have a 14.7% chance of getting the #8 seed and a 96.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Western Conference Standings
LA Lakers 48-18 (84.6% at #1 seed, 15.4% at other)
Denver 44-21 (34.8% at #2 seed, 47.9% at #3-4 seed)
Dallas 45-21 (34.4% at #2 seed, 56.5% at #3-4 seed)
Utah 42-23 (16.2% at #2 seed, 48.1% at #3-4 seed)
Oklahoma City 40-24 (46.7% at #5 or better seed)

Over in the West, the standings are constantly fluid and there is absolutely no rigidity to the leader board like there is in the East. After Los Angeles at the top, it appears that either Denver or Dallas will come away with the #2 seed. Despite their recent long winning streak, the statistics do not favor the Mavericks in the long-run and this shows here in their only decent chances at getting that second spot.

Following those two teams are Utah and Oklahoma City along with a whole slew of potential playoff contenders. It is hard to sleep on teams like Portland, Phoenix and San Antonio when it comes down to crunch time and whoever makes it out of this conference will certainly be battle-tested. Expect those to be the eight teams in the Western playoffs while the order of seedings could change every single day from here on out until the end of the regular season in five weeks.

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(Photo above via Jae C. Hong/AP. Projections in the standings are via SportsClubStats.com)