May 25, 2013

What Has Choo Done For Me Lately?

April 16, 2010 by 15 Comments

The Cleveland Indians currently boast the worst batting average in all of baseball with a bright an shiny .211.  Only one player on the team has a batting average north of .300 to this point, and it is right-fielder Shin-Soo Choo.

Over his last four games, Choo is hitting .615 (8-for-13) with three home runs and two doubles.  For the season, he has an OPS of 1.152.

His impact in Thursday’s 3-2 win over the Texas Rangers has already been documented.  Finally being able to take advantage of base runners that were simply handed to them, Choo’s eighth inning home run notched the Indians their third win of the season. 

In Thursday’s game, Choo notched one of the highest WPA (win probability added, the change in win likelihood from start to end) marks of the season at .533.  This means that on his own, Shin-Soo Choo was worth more than half of yesterday’s win probability, with the rest of the team – eight other position players and David Huff – comprising the rest. 

For comparison purposes, as good as Choo was last season, his highest single game WPA was .263.

Pretty amazing to consider that Choo not only was worth half of a win, but that he was 2.3 standard deviations above the team average WPA.  At least until you consider what he has done to this point in the season…

Thus far in 2010, Choo sports a WPA of 0.90 which is good enough for ninth in all of baseball.  When taking a look at those above him, every other player is on a team that has at least four wins – more than that of the three-win Cleveland Indians.  In fact, three of the six players above him are on the Detroit Tigers, a six-win team to this point.  Stripping down team records, we find that only Texas’ Nelson Cruz (1.58 WPA) has meant more to his team per win than Choo has to the Indians.

For the season, Choo’s WPA (again, 0.90) is 2.9 standard deviations above the team average 0f -0.069.  As I said in a tweet earlier this morning, this is both awesome and sad.  To be this much better than your teammates is fairly incredible, but the sad truth is that the rest of the team has been detractors to the win collumn to this point save for Grady Sizemore (0.270 WPA).

Take into account the fact that Choo started the season off by going 2-for-18, and this recent surge has been incredible to say the least.  Somewhere, Scott Boras is licking his chops at this one…

–

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Related Posts

Zemanta
Filed Under: Indians Tagged With: , , ,
  • 5KMD

    Not to be all anti saber on you but Huff had to be worth more than half the win yesterday.

  • Turk

    Batting average and WPA? Come on, Scott, you’re better than that!

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Scott

    Huff’s WPA on the game was .276. Unfortunately, it seems that pitchers get the raw end of the deal when it comes to WPA and WAR. For comparison purposes, Roy Halladay’s WPA thus far is 0.810 despite being 2-0 with an ERA of 0.56.

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Scott

    “Batting average and WPA?”

    Something for everyone.

  • Turk

    No I mean that I don’t find either to be particularly reliable. 5KMD points out some of the flaws in WPA. Batting average… well, I think top-notch bloggers (of which you are one) should do their best to housetrain casual fans off of BA. Not everyone has to be a SABR nerd, but BA is so flawed that it isn’t helping anyone’s understanding of the game. I like OBP or OPS as a good shorthand for folks not familiar with more advanced stats.

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Scott

    We have talked about the flaws in BA in the past – I used it as a reference point for some that may not dig SABR. Can we just agree that he’s been really good thus far and is doing so while making pennies compared to his peers?

  • 5KMD

    Sorry, didn’t mean to start a whole thing. But for this particular game on this particular day, I think more can be gleaned from watching the game than the stats.

    Now for an entire season (especially if you don’t watch every pitch) the WPA and the WAR probably work just fine.

    A man of both worlds, that’s me.

  • Turk

    Scott, no problem. Certainly didn’t mean to take an adversarial tone. Love what you guys do here.

  • Eli

    Random note. The game summary for yesterday had an interesting mention of Russell Branyon being sent down from Columbus to Akron.

    Money well spent!

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Scott

    “Certainly didn’t mean to take an adversarial tone.”

    None taken, sir.

  • Ryan

    Scott, I’m trying to figure out how this WPA works for pitchers. Did Harrison get charged with a -.533 yesterday even though two of those runs were errors? I’m also not sure how reliable WPA is. It seems like luck/clutch hitting are extremely important variables here. Sure Choo was the hero yesterday, but if it was not for those two errors, he would have been lucky to get a +.1 yesterday especially since he stranded two in the fifth.

    I guess I’d be interested to see how WAR and WPA worked for starting pitchers last year. I also wonder if it would be a valuable tool for analyzing relief pitchers. (The ones that enter into tight games with bases loaded jams would be more affected than starting pitchers)

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Scott

    Ryan – unfortunately “clutch” is important as WPA is the change in win probability over the course of a game. In the eighth inning, the Indians were very likely to lose until the HR which gave them the one-run lead (very likely to win). All a function of the “leverage index.” Harrison had a WPA yesterday of -0.256.

    Starting pitchers, as I mentioned above, typically get the short end of the stick as they do not score runs. Huff get’s a healthy .276 – which is nothing to sneeze at by any means – due to how well he did. But if not for the three runs, the team would not have won, which is what is important in the end.

    With regard to relief pitchers, I think it does a decent job. For comparison purposes, Rafael Perez had a WPA of 2.43 in 2007 and a -1.97 in 2009.

  • http://www.heyhokie.com Vengeful Pat

    I think Scott was just using the stats to point towards the ultimate point of “This guy is really freaking good right now.” The OPS is in the post as well… an impressive 1.152 on the season. Now if only the players around Choo would get their bats moving.

  • Kevin

    Jhonny Peralta has been starting for the Indians for SIX years. Just sayin.

  • JM

    Choo is great but the two guys hitting before him need to start hitting already.

  • Pingback: Shin-Soo Choo Earns AL Player of the Week Honors | WaitingForNextYear