Blue Jays 8 Indians 5: Bats Show, Arms Don’t
May 5, 2010Calipari to Bulls Means LeBron to Bulls
May 5, 2010It takes sixteen games
To win a championship
BUT ONE TO LOSE IT
All our hopes are DASHED
Elbow is DEVASTATED
Words CAPITALIZED
Thank you Denny for those wonderful words in haiku form and the picture to your right. Now the analysis of why everyone in Cleveland should “step away from the ledge”. If you recall, we were up to this same type of article just about two months ago with Shaq’s injury and assorted depressing Cavs news. Here it’s time to ease your fears and worries about the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
For starters, let’s begin with the simple fact that the Cavaliers are tied with the Celtics 1-1 in their best-of-seven series. From here, the Cavs will play two straight games (of equal importance) in the state of Massachusetts. There is also a guaranteed game five back at the Q, followed by continuous alternating locations for the potential game six and game seven.
As we were reminded by Cleveland Frowns on Twitter yesterday, there is actually a huge historical advantage for teams in Cleveland’s situation. John Hollinger wrote about this earlier in the week (ESPN Insider) but this is the gist: Just 12 of 42 road teams (28.6 percent) to win a game two after losing game one actually went on to win a second-round series.
This historical trend is probably true because of the simple fact the team with home court advantage is usually much better in the second round and how only road win switches back the momentum. If the Cavs can simply win either game three or game four in Boston, all the team will have to do from there is protest home court and win the series in seven games.
Currently however, the Celtics have the opportunity to protect home court and defeat the Cavaliers in six games. This is what happened last year where the Magic went back home to Orlando with a 1-1 series mark, and then coasted from there to an Eastern Conference title. There are several things different about these two games than that Orlando series. Here are my three main arguments and the conclusions from there:
1) Cleveland and Boston’s History – I talked about the history between Paul Pierce and LeBron James prior to game two the other day. Before that contest, in 19 of their previous 20 match ups in the regular season or post season, the home team won every time. But besides that, the Cavs could not match up with Orlando at all last season. In the nine meetings combined last year, Cleveland was 3-6 and lost by an average of 5.4 points.
Meanwhile, over the past two regular seasons against boston, Cleveland is 4-4 with an average differential of +6.4. As showcased in the series between the Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs, differential means something in the NBA. It proves that teams are reliably better than another and can indicate various other trends. Assuming this holds true, it would not be shocking to see Cleveland win at least one game in Boston.
2) LeBron’s Injury – Yes, I am using this as a reason why this year and last year are different in a positive light. LeBron James is capable of being the best player in the NBA still to this moment, as illustrated by his two fourth quarters in this series. In these 22.7 minutes, he has totaled 22 points, five rebounds, three blocks and two steals. In his other 64 minutes of playing time during this series, he has just 37 points, nine rebounds, one block and four steals.
What this shows is that LeBron’s elbow is still able to do everything we are used to him doing in clutch situations. The elbow is some strange factor during the first three quarters of games, but when it is absolutely needed, LeBron is still very capable of scoring and rebounding just like he used to back in the day. The elbow injury itself is not a concern because there are times when LeBron seems just fine.
3) The Results – Against Orlando last season, the Cavs lost game one, the team desperately needed the second game to even stay in the series. Fortunately, LeBron saved everything with his memorable last-second three. But even after this game, our very own Andrew had this to say about the series:
Last night, after the shot, I was initially more relieved than anything else. I wasnât happy because I felt in my heart that the Cavaliers deserved to be in an 0-2 hole heading to Orlando.
Does anyone here believe that we should technically be down 0-2 to Boston? Was there any doubt in the fourth quarter of game one at all? In the end, the series is convincingly tied at 1-1 with no glaring match up difficulties like Cleveland had last season. Rajon Rondo has been good, Kevin Garnett has battled well against Antawn Jamison, but besides that there is nothing glaringly better about Boston over the Cavs.
Conclusion – In the end, the Cavaliers are tied at 1-1 in a best-of-seven series against the 2008 NBA champions. Forget everything you thought coming into the series about Boston’s regular season mediocrity or age, because that simply doesn’t matter anymore. These are two defensive-minded teams that are definitely both capable of competing for the 2010 title.
Here is all that Cleveland has to do to put itself back in the driver’s seat to the Eastern Conference Finals: win one of the next two games in Boston. That’s it. Either Friday or Sunday. Lose boththose games, and extreme panic will be entirely appropriate. Considering everything above however, this series should be OK for the Cleveland Cavaliers very soon.
57 Comments
“LeBron is still very capable of scoring and rebounding just like he used to back in the day.”
So, like a month ago?
Nice write up.
I am definitely not ledging, but if the Cavs had gone up 2-0 like they should have, the next two games would be a lot easier on the stomach. Especially game 3 in which the Vavs would have been essentially playing with house money.
My real problem as a fan is continuing to watch these horrid first halves. I know it’s the Cavs M.O. to grind until the fourth quarter, but I would it a couple times if they would beat someone down by halftime (especially at home).
Of course, they got big first half leads last year and look what that got them against Orlando.
Shaq-Jamison-Z
But should Celts end our season
Ferry’s now a shmuck.
im not all “on the ledge” but we haven’t been playing a brand of basketball which directly inspires confidence.
I have to wonder if a lot of “panicking” Cleveland fans aren’t really as dreadfully pessimistic or “Armageddon-ish” as they seem.
Having been dragged through more circles of sports hell than Dante could’ve ever imagined up for us, Cleveland fans certainly have the divine right to the throne of fanxiety.
And as much as it seems we abuse those privileges, I think most people are optimistic inside. They still hope. They still believe. They haven’t thrown in the proverbial towel…even though it seems like it.
There is a difference between being truly “defeatist” and “preparing yourself for the worst.” I think most fans that seem to be overreacting are doing just that, preparing themselves for the worst. And I don’t blame them for not expressing outwardly their optimism. Because it hurts that much more. I’m probably one of these people.
Still, I’d have to agree with Pres. and VP candidates Steel Merkin and Denny after they rallied me yesterday (what a speaker that Steel Merkin is, what with all the prostitution references). The distinction I’m talking about doesn’t much matter when we manifest only the “defeatist” defense mechanisms and none of the optimism. Which is why, after being irate with Simmons for questioning the intensity of the loyal legions at the Q, I’ve reconsidered my position and fall with him. The Q has been horrific. Even LAKERS fans were rallying last night early with their team down 8. They just spontaneously started getting riled up although only bad things had happened (TOs, missed shots, Kobe excess) to start that game. When we went down early, there was about as much chance for spontaneous applause as there was of Indians staying in business (defeatist?). We as sports fans have a responsibility to “Rise Up!” “All Together!.” Don’t we? As corny and as ridiculed as those campaigns have been, they’re starting to make sense.
Viva la Merkin! Viva la revolucion! Viva los caballeros!
Sorry about the typos, trying to multi-task at work.
I’m sure I’ll get murdered for this, but I think we deserve to be down 0-2 just the same as the Orlando comparison. We’re saying similar things: “There’s no way (insert team) can keep that up!” “They’re draining 3’s consistently and they can only sustain that for so long.” “WTF Mo!?!?!?”.
I know you can’t compare this series to the Orlando series perfectly (different opponents, different CAVS team) and I’m not in panic mode yet, but until this team conjures up the team we watched in games 3 or 4 last series, I’m going to be a little worried.
My view on Lebron’s elbow is that he saves the maxing of his elbow for the clutch. The Cavs had enjoyed the maxing of his elbow for four quarters. If Lebron is budgeting his elbow, the difference must be made up somewhere, particularly against top opponents (not to mention that said top opponents’ “A” games are a major handful for a healthy slate of Cavs).
Lebron’s elbow… Wow, that Twitter account was prescient. It’s the X factor. It’s capable of performing, but is especially formidable late in games…Do Lebron and His Elbow take up two roster spots?
I would be less worried if there was any evidence that the Cavs cared enough to pay 48min of basketball.
Totally agree that it’s not time for panic just yet. The bottom line is that it comes down to which Cavs team shows up. The Cavs COULD beat the Celtics 10 outta 10 times if each team played its best basketball. But unfortunately the Cavs haven’t been able to put together a full series of “their best basketball” yet (yes I realize it’s only the second series) which would/will be cause for concern if/when we advance. I think we are still good enough to get by the Celtics even with these missteps, but against Orlando, they better bring it every night.
re Jack’s “The Q has been horrific.”
The Q announcer is in constant crowd-goosing mode. He doesn’t allow the natural fan fervor to build; that’s the inspiring stuff. Those were the days. Goosed noise is like an “applause” sign. It’s a bummer.
Historical outcomes aside, I am not pushing the panic button as of yet. Yes we lost, yes it was a poor performance, but at the same time I’ve said since the playoffs started:
If we play Boston they will likely win a game at the Q they’ve been a good road team all year long…we will also win a game in Boston as they have been a poor home team all year long.
Nothing has changed.
Btw, does anyone find any merit in the rumors that some of these guys may have had a long night before game 2 celebrating Lebrons MVP? It seems to make sense to me.
Did anybody read Brian Windhorst’s article on espn yesterday? He seems to strongly suggest that there is something much more wrong with LBJ than his elbow….that is what keeps me close to stepping over
I don’t know Todd. All the signs point to bipolar disorder.
The Cavs have always been so much tougher in the playoffs every season. They turn it up this time of year. This is the first season they have yet to do that. Last year it was tough to watch them get knocked out against the Magic giving the maximum effort. This year it would be even tougher to see a team so talented get eliminated by not giving it their very best.
“These are two defensive-minded teams that are definitely both capable of competing for the 2010 title.”
So far, I’ve only seen one defensive minded team and one that looks capable of competing against Orlando. That team isn’t Cleveland. They’ll have to up the intensity and act like a team that WANTS to win before my mind is changed. We’ll see Friday. I’m not on the ledge, yet, but this team hasn’t showed anything that should keep me from being there.
I honestly think the crowd thing is a silly argument. There is clearly a cause and effect factor at play i.e. the team playing well with hustle and energy causes the fans to get excited.
I was at game two and watching most of that game there wasn’t much to get excited about aside from Lebron’s chase down and a couple of flush dunks. Don’t get me wrong my voice is still recovering from yelling during that 15-0 run, but I can’t blame fans for being quiet when your team looks like they’d rather be eating potato chips on the couch at home rather than trying to entertain you and win a game you payed hard earned money to see.
“The elbow injury itself is not a concern because there are times when LeBron seems just fine.”
Well, ummm, therein lies the concern. If he seems just fine in the 4th quarter, what the crap is wrong with him for quarters 1-3? And even though the series is “convincingly” tied at 1-1, the Celtics played “convincingly” better for 6.5 out of the first 8 quarters, which were played in Cleveland. While I agree that we needn’t call Bruce Willis, Ben Affleck and the Autobots to save Earth from destruction just yet, there is reason for concern. Cue the Aerosmith love ballad… I’m goin’ in!
One win in Boston doesn’t guarantee any wins in Cleveland.
Todd,
I just read that Windy article. It reads like tabloid pot-stirring to me. There’s crappie, then there’s crappy.
Rajon Rondo has absolutely destroyed us, he hasn’t just been “good” he has been unbelievable… this worries me. I’m not on the edge as I am a believer that we are simply the better team and the better teams wins in the best of 7 series format more often then not.
@Matt#2
I hear you re Windy but I always thought he had more journalistic integrity than that….if there is such a thing
Me too.
What worries me most is JJ on the fence between complacency and armageddon. He just doesn’t know what 2 do!
It’s about time Windhorst admitted that maybe he was wrong to blow off LeBron’s elbow injury as just LeBron being a drama queen. He was stupid to put his “I know LeBron better than anyone” rep on the line for this.
That said, it’s either the injury, or LeBron was pissed at the coaching staff for going All-Shaq, All-the-Time to start each quarter, rather than running with the small lineup and his protege J.J. Hickson.
When LeBron got a switch with Ray Allen on him, but chose to pass to Anthony Parker for an inlet pass to Shaq in the post, that was the final straw for me.
I’m not on the ledge, I think we’ll beat Boston. I just don’t expect the Cavs to beat the Magic at this rate. It’s not the one loss, it’s the perceived difference between the drive of the two teams. The Magic’s 40+ point victory over Atlanta last night isn’t helping.
Then again, seems like role reversal from last year, I guess.
Mike
“When LeBron got a switch with Ray Allen on him, but chose to pass to Anthony Parker for an inlet pass to Shaq in the post, that was the final straw for me.”
I am glad you brought that up. I thought that was a head scratcher (Spell-check is rejecting “scratcher.”), I stared at the screen with my mouth half-open, then dismissed it in recognizing the balance of my versus Lebron’s “basketball IQ.”
just spotted JJ, looks like he’s getting a major owie.
Whats going to be awesome is watching Boston get every favorable whistle and call because they are the home team and this is the nba playoffs and that is just how it works.
The flat-effect play is genuine cause for concern. This team takes its energy cue from LeBron and sometimes Andy. Not a Mike Brown hater, but he seems to have little influence in that area. There are some coaches/managers who are more set-the-general-tone guys rather than “wake up before you grab some bench” guys.
LeBron’s shadow is so huge that it would take an alpha coach with a better pedigree than Brown to snap them to when LeBron is deferring like Game 2. There’s a player leadership vacuum begging for someone else right now. Shaq is useless because he’s no longer a real impact player, and there’s no example there for guys to follow. Championship teams need an alpha. If LeBron can’t do it, someone else needs to fake it til they make it, stat. It’s the second round of the playoffs. The time for getting your game face on should have been the last couple weeks of the regular season.
I’m not on the ledge yet, remember …..that when the pressure’s on, and the game is almost through, the Cav’s will make it happen ans rally two by two! If only this year’s team had the heart of the miracle of Richfield team, we would be in great shape. We will know early on Friday where things stand. I fully expect a very high level of intensity, defense and leadership from LeBron. It’s absolutely time for him to show the entitre league that he is the most dominant force as well as the most determined. 40-12-12 would do it for me. No excuses. I hope we put in our fast team to run the legs off the old guys, either Andy, JJ, Antawn, LeBron and Delonte, or substitute Jamario for JJ andn let LeBron be our 4. In either case, we need our best defensive players who can also run to play extended minutes.
I just remember everyone including me saying many of the same things in the Orlando series,
“They walked through the first two rounds, time for them to wake up”
Are they awake this postseason?
“all the team will have to do from there is protest home court and win the series in seven games.”…
Protest home court?? I thought having the home court advantage is a good thing…
I am still about a quarter mile from the ledge. I see the ledge but am not looking down yet.
With that being said, I am deeply concerned about this team. The whole LeBron elbow thing is really weird and getting more confusing with each day. I keep going back though to qtr 3 of the last game. In 7 years, I truly have never seen LeBron that removed from the ebb and flow of the game. It was like he was in a haze.
He just absolutely must set the tone for the team from the get-go on Friday.
@stin4u: I have been hearing those rumors as well about what might or might not have happened post-mvp ceremony.
Brian
“protest home court” is short for “secretly love home court advantage.” It’s like, “doth protest (home court advantage) too much.”
/sooo clever’d
Where on the interwebs have these hangover rumors been rumored?
Someone told me they heard it from a friend who knew somebody whose dad new a guy that used to work closely with a friend who had inside knowledge of the situation.
In other words, Du, we should take this information on the run.
Exactly Denny! đ
So, what you’re saying is the sky is not falling? (looks outside) I’ll buy that.
In all seriousness, I expected them to lose one at home in the first two. I also expect them to win one, if not two games in Boston. Now, the lack of effort (or whatever you want to call it) was not expected and worries me slightly. But, the Cavs are the more talented team and just have to come out with the attitude of taking the game from the tip. It’s quite obvious Boston believes they are good enough to win it all and are playing with that chip on their shoulder, a chip the Cavs are yet to show.
My basic take on all this: the Cavs need to wake up. I’m not sure what it is, but they’ve been lethargic an awful lot lately, and I have yet to figure out why. It’s almost as if they’ve forgotten how good they are, how fast they can run, how much bench support they have, etc.
LOL!!!LOL!!!LOL!!!LOL!!!
That has GOT to be one of the wackiest post titles EVVVVAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!! Thanks MUCH for makin’ my MONTH!!!
You’re all really dumb in Cleveland, aren’t you? Celtics are going to steamroll you over the next three games. Celtics/Magic ECF, LOL!
LOL SELTICKS R DA BESS EVAR!!!!!
BEIBER IS THE BEST EVAR HOW DARE YOU PUT HIM DOWN
oh sorry I thought I had stumbled over a Justin Beiber website with those last three comments
Keep going, you’re all proving how retarded Clevelanders really are. BTW, I’m a Magic fan. Doesn’t matter who wins this series anyways, Magic are going on to win the championship.
nullster, I was joking you nimwit
Jason,
Cleveland thinks you’re wonderful.
If look back at the Cavs’ playoff history in the LBJ era, they have played games like game 2 before and gone on to win the series. A couple times versus Washington, Detroit, and New Jersey. My biggest concern is defense. It’s not clear that Antawn understands his role on D, and Mo obviously stuggles big-time. The Cavs need Antawn to play solid D in the paint and he hasn’t done that. There were a few times the other night when he could of at least fouled the Celtic who was going for the shot in the paint, but he actually stepped away. I like Antawn, but dude, come on, you’re not playing for the Wiz kids anymore. But it all goes back to LeBron. He needs to set the tone defensively. Take a couple aspirin and get on with it.