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July 6, 2010Da Clip Show: Keeping an Eye on the Tribe’s AAA Squad – 7/6/10
July 6, 2010If you’re like me, you’ve been clamoring for a few years about getting Grady Sizemore out of the lead-off spot. Thankfully, this was the year that new manager Manny Acta heard us. Sadly, however, it was also the year where a litany of injuries finally caught up to Sizemore, and after microfracture surgery on his knee his 2010 is over.
After Sunday’s loss to Oakland, Acta made a comment pointing out that the team is doing what it can on offense despite missing three of its best hitters in Sizemore, SS Asdrubal Cabrera, and RF Shin-Soo Choo. And, while I know it was just one game, watching an inning last night in which Carlos Santana and Matt LaPorta both hit bomb home runs to give the Tribe an early 4-0 lead, it got me thinking: what does the Tribe’s lineup and batting order look like on Opening Day 2011 if EVERYONE is healthy on this team?
First and foremost, I will go on record as saying I believe the centerfield and leadoff job is Michael Brantley’s to lose in 2011. Brantley has made solid improvements at AAA in some of the areas of his game where it was most needed: batting average and getting on base. His speed needs to be at the top of this lineup. Frankly, it’s the job he’s been groomed for since coming over as the PTBNL in the CC Sabathia trade. I put Brantley in center because of one thing: Sizemore is coming off of major knee surgery, and may not have the wheels he once did. Both can go and get it in center, but I feel that at this point Brantley can go and get it just a bit more.
So, obviously, Brantley’s batting at the top of the lineup. It seems almost a no-brainer that a healthy Cabrera will slot right in at #2. Big Smooth Carlos Santana looks more than comfortable in the #3 spot right now. With Cabrera healthy, it makes sense to slot Shin-Soo Choo in behind Santana at #4. That appears to be a pretty solid 2011 top of the lineup, no?
It stands to reason that there’s very little chance Jhonny Peralta is back at third base next year, and if the Tribe goes young with someone like Jared Goedert you’re going to put him down at the bottom of the lineup. Also, whomever wins the suck-derby at second base (Sweet Luis? Jason Donald? Cord Phelps? Jayson Nix?) is batting ninth almost by default. So, really, now we just need to set our 5-6-7 hitters.
At #5 it can get interesting. We’re seeing a completely different Matt LaPorta at the plate since his recall in late June, after hitting his fourth home run since coming back up last night. If he continues to progress as many think he will, he can challenge for that #5 spot next year. And, depending on pitching matchups, one must factor in Travis Hafner’s Horrible Contract.
And then there’s Sizemore. Potentially batting seventh. Seventh?
Hard to think that a guy many felt was the franchise corner-stone a couple of years ago would be hitting seventh, but the more I look at the way this lineup should shake out in 2011, the more it makes sense to have him down there. I guess you could put him fifth, but if anything I think you want him no higher than sixth so that you can go left-right-left with Choo, LaPorta, and Sizemore.
In a way, to me it would be a nice luxury to have: having a guy of Sizemore’s pedigree (and, 30-30 potential, if he’s entirely healthy) batting that low in your order. But, it’s also a bit of a sad statement about how quickly he’s fallen off due to the breakdown of his body. Sizemore’s almost like a bruising running back in that he played the game 100% hard 162 games a year for as long as he could, and now his body is starting to betray him after all of that.
At any rate, at the end of the day, here’s the lineup I settled on. What do you all think? Am I being overly ambitious?
1 – CF Michael Brantley (L)
2 – SS Asdrubal Cabrera (S)
3 – C Carlos Santana (S)
4 – RF Shin-Soo Choo (L)
5 – 1B Matt LaPorta (R)
6 – LF Grady Sizemore (L)
7 – DH Travis Hafner (L)
8 – 3B [insert name here]
9 – 2B [again, insert name here]
Am I crazy, or is that not a half-bad lineup?
23 Comments
Brantley would have to earn that spot the rest of this season IMO. Hafner just sticks out like a broken finger on that line-up card. Man I wish there was something that could be done about his contract. DH hitting 7th? Making that coin? Ugh.
when your DH has to bat 7th or higher you know its bad. however the rest of that lineup has some real potential. not sure i agree with sizemore in the 6 hole although it really depends on if he returns to his old form.
if i was a betting man i would say santana/laporta are going to work out but i just don’t see brantley’s bat at this point.
at what point does that lineup get traded away again
I love the way that lineup looks, but I seem to remember from previous quotes from Manny, he would like to have Santana batting somewhere around the number 5 hole next year. So if that’s the case I think your number 1 and 2 hitters stay the same, slot Grady in at number 3, leave Choo at 4, move Santana to 5, and LaPorta to 6, with the rest staying the same as you have it.
You know what? That’s a solid lineup, especially if Santana and LaPorta continue to develop. I’m not sure what we do about 3B, but I think Donald deserves to get the nod at 2B. Kipnis might be the future, but I’d want to give Donald as many opportunities as possible. And seeing as how Chisenhal won’t be ready in time… I guess we bring in somebody? Resign Peralta for cheap? I can live with him batting 9th. Now you guys have to do a 2011 projected starting pitching story… it’s only fair.
I give Brantley the benefit of the doubt based on his September last year and his work here in Columbus once he came down and started playing every day. He raised his AAA average almost 50 points (.267 -> .315) and raised his AAA OBP over 40 points (.350 -> .391). He’s still only 23 and doesn’t turn 24 until next May.
So, when I say: “I believe the centerfield and leadoff job is Michael Brantley’s to lose in 2011,” I’m not saying it like they should just give him the job a la Brandon Phillips at 2B in 2003.
I’m saying it based off of what I will assume to be a continued progression. He still technically has to earn the job in 2011, but tell me who’s going to take it from him? Sizemore obviously gets a spot in the lineup when he comes back, but who else is there? Trevor Crowe? Jose Constanza? It’s Brantley’s job to lose.
Liiiiiiiiiitttttttttttttttttttlllllllllllleeeeeee early to be giving CF to Brantley. Let’s keep in mind what a stud Sizemore was in CF before his injuries. I’m a big fan of Brantley as well, but I feel that CF is Grady’s spot to lose in 2011.
Also, what does Choo’s contract run out? No chance we sign him under Boras…
As for third next year, Jared Goedert is hitting like he wants the job right now for Columbus. But, Goedert hasn’t historically hit much during his minor league career. Another option if they want to turn internally to keep the seat warm for Chisenhall is Josh Ridriguez, who has been hitting a ton for Columbus in the 2-hole, and has been hitting very well throughout most of his minor-league career. He’d be a solid #9 hitter if the Tribe literally had no one else.
I understand what you’re saying, J-Dub, but Brantley is almost every bit the defensive CF that Grady is, IMHO. I’ve seen Brantley play about 35 games in CF in Columbus, and his glove has never been a question. And, if Sizemore’s in LF (as I have it here), what does it hurt? It would be an all-around very, very good defensive outfield with any combination of Sizemore, Brantley, and Choo.
I’m just of the opinion that you have the younger, healthier guy who can run patrolling center. Until I see that Grady’s got his full wheels back, I have no problem moving him to left. It’s not like I’m suggesting we bench him.
I know you’re not. I’m just curious to see if Grady ever comes back at full strength, I haven’t seen Brantley play as much in the field but he’ll have a full year to prove his value. Everyone knew that 2010 would be written off, but this team will be loaded with young talent come 2011. I think Grady coming back to full strength will make all the difference in the world, he would be the undisputed leader to this young group.
Unrelated, have you seen these articles about Bosh coming to Cleveland? To quote Harry and Lloyd, you’re saying there’s a chance?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5357607
I guess I look at it this way, and I know this is probably going to be a bit of a stretch…
Ken Griffey Jr. was an awesome centerfielder… until he started having leg problems; then he just couldn’t cover the ground anymore. I wouldn’t be crushed if Grady comes back 100% and pushes Brantley to LF… honestly, just having them both playing every day would be great.
But, until Grady shows that his legs are what they always were, he’s still going to be coming back from a MAJOR knee operation, and I’m inclined to put the guy with almost as good a glove and as good or better arm–with the better wheels–in center. It’s just MHO.
That could be a very, very good line up. A big if is Brantley, if he is an average lead off that does everything for us. I’d switch Choo and Santana to split up the switch hitters and I’d also put Hafner 6th, Grady 7th. We need to get rid of Peralta and bring up Goedart soon to see what the kids got and I think Donald is our 2nd baseman next year. We are setting up pretty well
dang, I just redid my lineup card for 2011 yesterday (yeah, we are true Indians fans to be doing this in July).
Mostly matches up with what you had, except I like Santana in the cleanup spot. I also played with dropping Asdrubal down to 6th, but just couldn’t do it:
CF – Brantley
SS – Asdrubal Cabrera
RF – Choo
C – Santana
1B – LaPorta
LF – Sizemore? Or Jordan Brown (with a Sizemore trade while he still has some value…knee injury, I’m not sure he will return to same levels)
DH – Hafner (rotate guys here too to give them fielding days off)
3B – J. Rodriguez (until June: Chisenhall)
2B – ??
also, here’s the pitching. not nearly as good, but I’m holding out hope that after we trade Westbrook at the deadline, we do pursue him in the offseason. I doubt we get him for under $10mil/year which is what we would likely want him at.
Carmona may be out best pitcher, but Westbrook is our most consistent, and if we fix the infield defense, both could have really good years.
SP – Carmona
SP – Talbot
SP – Masterson
SP – Laffey
SP – Huff / Carrasco / ??
That line up looks pretty cool, but …
– Next year is Grady’s “walk” year if the Indians don’t exercise the club option for 2012, which they won’t. Next year his current $5.6 M salary jumps to $7.5M. The ’12 option year is for $8.5M, with a $500k bonus if they opt out. With the Dolans’ payroll issues, no way. If he’s playing well, they’re dealing him by the July ’11 deadline, because they won’t want to pay that ’11 salary plus the bonus as well when they don’t exercise the option. If he’s not playing well, he doesn’t look so great in that line up anyway.
– Don’t think Choo can be a free agent, but this is his last “non-arbitration” year. Enter The Boras. Dolans don’t do arbitration + Boras doesn’t do hometown discounts = Bye Bye Choo. Certainly by the ’11 trade deadline.
I might swap Grady for Asdrubal, with Santana hitting behind him I think Grady has a resurgence. Asdrubal would fit nicely before the fill ins at 3b and 2b in 7th slot and move the moving corpse that is Hafner to 6th, to provide some protection for LaPorta. Though I must say Nix looked pretty good last night, maybe he’s found a place he can thrive. Hey a man can hope.
@15 – is trading Grady such a bad thing? if he’s playing well, i’m not so down on the Indians picking up the option for ’12.
we pared our payroll down $20mil this year and we chop another $20mil next year (Westbrook, Wood) plus whatever Peralta is at. Then, for ’12 we also lose Pronk’s $10mil.
that puts us in the Pirates / Padres territory of payroll, which (surprising to some here apparently), Dolan hasn’t had a history of doing.
i’m more worried about resigning Grady to a long term deal and having him not recover fully and being an anchor on our team like Hafner currently is.
Just relax Harv 21, Grady’s contract is still a bargain if he returns to form and the Dolan’s dont pass up a bargain… if he doesn’t return to form then we can let him go and there’s nothing to complain about.
Regarding Choo, if the team is ready to contend then I would expect us to just pay the arbitration salary for a couple of years and decide what to do with him before he becomes a free agent, which is not for a few more years. What he will wind up with in arbitration is still short of what he would get on the free agent market, and by most statistical analysis, Choo is worth whatever that number is and probably more. Plus, this injury could lower his arbitration value for at least next year.
Excellent article, sad we have to look forward this soon, but very fun to think about.
I don’t want to be “that guy,” but I’m enjoying watching the Indians play this year, and not worrying too much about next year. I don’t care about wins and losses, I’m just hoping to see Santana, LaPorta, Carmona, Masterson and Talbot progress.
@20 – but seeing those guys progress has a natural progression towards next season, no?
@Omega, right on. It seems like every time I check in LaPorta and Santana are crushing home runs.
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