Can The Cavaliers Exceed Expected Results in 2010-11?
July 21, 2010Great Expectations: Where is the Browns’ Bandwagon, and How Far Can It Go?
July 21, 2010Every year the guessing and waiting starts to get unbearable as training camp approaches. NFL rookies are all waiting to see how they’re unofficially slotted on the pay scale. Their agents are crowing about giant contract numbers only to reveal the guaranteed amounts of money in small print a few paragraphs later. This year the wait could be even worse than previous years. Many expect this system where rookies hit the lottery before playing a down of professional football to end before the next collective bargaining agreement is finished. So how much money will it take to get Joe Haden in and how quickly can we expect to see him?
Obviously things have a tendency to speed up after the first pick in the draft is paid. That first pick this year is Sam Bradford and he is looking to get somewhere in the neighborhood of $40-45 million in guaranteed money on his contract. There is usually a premium paid to quarterbacks, but even still, that number could prove to be pretty painful for the draft picks that immediately follow up until Joe Haden is negotiating with the Browns at number seven.
Eventually the formula will take into account a few variables. First and foremost, Haden’s reps will be looking to see what the 6th pick in the draft gets. They will want to know what the 7th pick in the draft got last year. In this case, the Oakland Raiders signed Darrius Heyward-Bey to a much maligned 5-year contract guaranteeing $23.5 million and potentially worth up to $38.25 million. That contract represented just over a 20% increase year over year with Sedrick Ellis and the New Orleans Saints. Ellis’ contract was about a 15% increase in guaranteed money compared to Adrian Peterson the year before that when Peterson got $17 million guaranteed on his six-year $40.5 million total deal. League-wide people were critical of the Raiders pick in that spot and the amount of money they gave up in negotiations.
Another factor that comes into play this year is that the NFL owners are being a bit stubborn. If you want to know just how stubborn, you can ask D’Qwell Jackson, Abe Elam and Matt Roth who were restricted free agents and couldn’t get any traction on long-term deals. Combine that with rumblings of the player’s union calling it collusion, and this year’s negotiations could get especially sticky around the league.
At the end of the day, assuming that this final year works similarly to how the rookie wages have gone in the past, I think we can assume what it will take to get Joe Haden into camp. I am not going to begin to predict the “total value” of the contract. That number is usually made up of some unreachable incentives put in there so the player and his agent can brag about the deal they just signed. The only numbers that truly matter are the guaranteed dollars. In this case, I think it is reasonable to assume that Joe Haden will seek to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 years with $27 – 28.5 million guaranteed. It gets even more complicated though.
Joe Haden’s agent, Malik Shareef, has stated that Haden has “no intentions” of holding out. While that may be true, Browns’ rookies are supposed to report Friday and as long as Sam Bradford remains unsigned the intentions of those picks down the chain don’t matter a whole lot. In addition to those external factors, Mike Florio from ProFootballTalk mentions some additional factors that could exacerbate the situation. Florio knows NFL player agents and in his estimation, Haden’s agent is relatively inexperienced. Combine that with the current state of the collective bargaining agreement and the seemingly bad comparably slotted contract from a year ago thanks to the Raiders, and it could be an uphill battle into a headwind.
Following Haden on Twitter and hearing his agent talk, I hope that won’t be the case as all indications on that front are the Haden wants to be in on time. Then again, that is just good PR in case Haden’s camp eventually feels the need to point a finger at the Browns if and when Haden misses time in camp.
9 Comments
Looking forward to Haden getting into camp and for the season to start. Ready to see if this guy was worthy of the pick. I hope he is able to give Lombardi a big turd sandwich to chew on as he shuts down wr’s each week.
“Joe, you should hold out on your rookie training camp. It did wonders for my career.”
-Brady Quinn
Alexander, exactly. He should be the poster boy for rookie holdouts. The starting job might have been his had he not held out, and look how that turned out for him.
I love when athletes say they want to be in on time. Well if you do, don’t worry about the extra 8 mill guaranteed and earn it for your next contract. I think he’ll be able to survive on 20 mill guaranteed, even if he gets hurt and never plays a down again.
Not delusional enough to think that what I suggested will happen, but don’t tell me you want to be in camp then don’t show up.
/rant
@Alexander: You made me cry a little bit. Laughter and sorrow.
I think the owners should use the new CBA as a bargaining chip. Tell the player, if you dont want to sign, fine, good luck when picks get slotted next year and you wont be able to negotiate a huge contract. These rookies get paid way too much for nothing. Haden sign right around where DHB got last year and get to camp. That wont happen, but it should.
Also, I read reports saying Bradford was in the range of 45-50 mil. guaranteed… not that it makes a big difference, but its like 8 more mil. then Stafford.
There really really needs to be a pay scale for rookies, Bradford getting that much for never playing a down is completely absurd.
@7
JaMarcus Russell thinks it’s completely fair.
so somehow one of the factors in all of this is Al Davis’ (poor)decision making? Awesome!
anyone else flabbergasted by the fact that Darius Heyward Bay makes more than Peterson? Im not too worried yet about all this labor hubub in the NFL, but both sides have to want to get that fixed, right?