May 23, 2013

Indians All Star Break Analysis – Outfield and DH

In the second of a four-part series, WFNY will take a look at your last place Cleveland Indians. This afternoon, we will take a look at the outfield. It was supposed to be a position of strength when the season began, but today, things have changed.

On opening day, the outfield was something that you looked to and said “we are set.” For now and for the future I believe. Young Michael Brantley was in left, Grady Sizemore in center, and Shin-Soo Choo was in right. All three were poised for breakouts of sorts.

Again, the best laid plans….

When Shelley Duncan has seen regular time in one of the corner spots, you know something is amiss.

Left Field: Opening Day Starter – Michael Brantley (.118 BA/1 HR/5 RBI) Today: Austin Kearns (.270 BA/7 HR/38 RBI)

Before we jump all over Brantley for his stats, you must remember he is still just 23. The Spring Training plan for Brantley was to be a par of the open competition for the left field job. But the kid was never really going to be considered partly because of the Russell Branyan signing (causing Matt LaPorta to play LF) and partly due to the fact that the Tribe brass wanted to season him more (cough, cough, keep his service time down) at AAA Columbus.

The combination of a good spring (.291 in 55 AB’s) and Branyan’s back injury forced Brantley into action as the regular left fielder. To stay with the big club, all he had to do was hit. The problem was he didn’t, and Austin Kearns did. Once Branyan was ready, there was no longer room for Brantley, who was sent back to Columbus.

As for the man who took over, he turned from Austin to “Awesome” Kearns. While the Indians offense sputtered out of the gate, the man who signed a minor league free agent deal over the winter was carrying the offense and became the team’s cleanup hitter. Half-way through May, he was the regular left-fielder and was hitting .340. On June 11th, he was still going strong at .307, but has come back down to earth since.

I give Kearns a ton of credit for proving to the rest of the league that he is still a major league starting outfielder. He has been invaluable to a banged up roster, playing all three OF positions and being a positive influence in the clubhouse. That is why Manny Acta wanted him in here. Acta had him in Washington and always loved him, he just couldn’t stay healthy. Don’t be stunned when Kearns is dealt before the trade deadline.

In 2011, the job is Brantley’s to lose.

Center Field: Opening Day Starter – Grady Sizemore (.211 BA/o HR/13 RBI). Today: Brantley/Trevor Crowe (.249 BA/1 HR/20 RBI)

Poor Grady Sizemore. For the second consecutive year, injuries have robbed him of a season. Last year, he labored through 106 injury-plagued games before being shut down. This Spring we heard story after story about how Grady was “back.” Well, that never happened.

Even when he was healthy in April, his plate discipline was lacking and the strikeouts were up again. The power we saw from 2005-2008 completely disappeared. Then, he hurt his knee so severely, that he needed season ending surgery. Grady may be a victim of his own early success. It’s gotten to a point with me that I’ve started to think we have vastly overrated him as a player. Maybe next year when he is 100% healthy, he will prove me wrong, but I don’t see him improving.

The regression for leadoff men usually comes when they fall in love with the home run ball. Grady falls into that category. As his homers went up, so did his strikeouts. Other than one up year in 2008, his walk numbers declined. Not good.

So with Grady out and the Indians not ready to recall Brantley, Trevor Crowe finally got his chance. Looked at as nothing more than a fourth outfielder, the former first round pick has shown that, well, he is a fourth outfielder. He does have nice speed, and has handled the bat well. But even though he can play all three OF positions, he takes very poor routes to balls. For every great catch he makes, he is taking a bad angle towards a ball in the gap. You now can’t say that Crowe hasn’t gotten his chance with the big club.

Once Choo went down with a sprained thumb, the brass recalled Brantley and immediately installed him as the every day centerfielder and leadoff man. I was excited to see what he would do with his shot. However, since he recall, Brantley has gone 3-36 (.083). Choo could be back within the next two weeks, which would send Brantley back to C-bus.

Right Field: Opening Day Starter – Shin-Soo Choo (.286 BA/13 HR/43 RBI). Today: Choo

It’s not all doom and gloom, is it? Shin-Soo Choo is the man. Pure and simple, Choo is the best all around player we’ve got. Just look at the stats. He is currently leading the Indians in every major offensive category – Batting average, home runs, RBI’s, on-base percentage, hits, runs, and stolen bases.

Think about that.

Now consider that you cannot run on him because of his absolute bazooka arm in right field. This is the epitome of a five-tool player. His thumb injury will end up robbing him of 20 games or so, not to mention needing to get his timing back, but Choo will be fine. He has been everything the Indians have asked him to be and more. When you scratch your head at some of the moves Mark Shapiro made over the years, make sure you remember that he acquired Choo for Ben Broussard.

DH: Opening Day Starter – Travis Hafner (.245/8 HR/29 RBI). Today: Hafner

Good ole’ Travis Hafner. The man formerly known as Pronk has been up and down all year. He’s been my favorite whipping boy for the last three years as we’ve all watched him go from MVP candidate to DFA candidate. As in designated for assignment.

I’m not going to regurgitate the same material again. If you want to read my knocking Hafner – have at it. The main issue with continuing to watch Travis hit fourth every night is that he isn’t producing. The salary of $14 million for the next two and a half years is an anchor tied to the foot of Chief Wahoo. He’s nothing but a thief at this point. The plate discipline that was his calling card during his “Pronk” years is all but gone. The power is all but gone. He can’t play the field.

So you are sitting with a DH that hits under .250 with the power of an average outfielder. As stated before – he’s Russ Branyan without the power who can’t play in the field. At some point, hopefully this offseason, the cord must be cut with him. He is tying up an everyday job for one of the young kids who can produce what he is doing at a fraction of the cost. Just cut your losses and set him free. You have to pay him regardless. Acknowledge the mistake and move on.

  • Lyon

    Agree on Hafner. Indians need to stop dreaming, he won’t be what he once was. Throw Jordan Brown in there and let him hit.

  • MP34

    Remember some of the 90′s teams when nearly ever player in the line up was flirting with a .300 average?

  • Harv 21

    Agree Sizemore is somewhat overrated, and don’t think his falloff is only about injuries. Seems that once he got his big contract he stopped adjusting/developing his plate approach while the pitchers kept adjusting to him. Heard him asked before ’08 season what he had worked on to reduce strike outs and he answered something like, “nothing, my approach doesn’t ever change.” Maybe it’s the ugly downside of locking up young players with big bucks (cough/peralta). At least he endears himself by hustling.

  • Charles

    Harv 21 – so Sizemore worked hard in the field, but didn’t at the plate? That’s a pretty ridiculous claim. And it’s pretty dumb to talk about his approach and strikeouts without mentioning the power and OBP. In his 4 full seasons before getting hurt, he put up a .281/.372/.496 line. There is absolutely nothing wrong with an approach that gets those results. There were just two other guys in MLB who put up a higher OPS over those four years while playing an up the middle position – Utley and Ramirez.

  • Harv 21

    Whoa, Charles, easy. Not ridiculous that a guy always runs hard to first but not adjusting his batting approach. Happens all the time, happened here 20 years ago with Cory Snyder who early on looked like he would be a 5 tool player but wouldn’t be coached up as the pitchers adjusted. Career stats can be misleading. I believe his BA was starting to tail year by year.

  • Charles

    And the original analysis of Sizemore is incredibly sloppy. When did he fall in love with the home-run ball? He hit 22 as a rookie, and then 28, 24, and 33 from there. He came to the majors with legit power, and as should be expected for any male aging from 22 to 25, he got a bit stronger. And let’s try to look at the correlation between homeruns and strikeouts. His two highest strikeout-rate years were his 28 and 24 home run years, the two in the middle, not the highest. Looking at his walk rate, it went up from 05 to 06 and again in 07, and it stayed almost exactly the same in 08.

  • Tommy

    Thank you Charles.

    You can say all you want about Grady and his injuries the past 2 years now. But anybody that wants to discredit Grady’s performances before that is either 1) just plain ridiculous or more likely 2) looking at the wrong stats.

    We most definately did not overrate him as a player, and baseball players do not just start breaking down at the age of 26. There is no way possible that management could have known this would happen so you can’t criticize them for locking up one of the top players in the game as long-term as possible.

  • NYcav

    Its kinda obvious that Grady and Hafner had some unatural help with thier game. Once the league cam down hard on that, their stats took a dive. Too coincindental for my taste.

  • 5KMD

    It makes me wonder if the Tribe could have gotten D. Brown from the Phillies in the Lee trade or if that was just made up. I hear that kid is looking good and about to be called up. If the Tribe really did take Marson over him just because we were “set” in the outfield, it could end up being a big mistake.

    I usually don’t believe “what could have beens” about trades though, because only a couple of people really know what was going on.

  • 216in614

    so im not sure i understand the hafner thing. we have to pay him no matter what. can we send him down to the clippers?

  • phil

    You can fall in love with the homerun ball and not hit homeruns. Thats the point I think he is trying to make with Grady, he isn’t hitting line drives or balls on the ground and beating them out like he could, he’s hitting high fly balls and striking out more instead of just trying to make solid contact.