While We’re Waiting… Browns Progress, Age Debates and Potential Cavs Centers
September 23, 2010Twins 5, Indians 1: If a Team Loses in Minneapolis, and Nobody Sees It…
September 23, 2010As Scott informed us yesterday, the rumors are flying out of Philly. That’s because they are Eagles! (Intentionally bad joke.) Naturally, anything involving the Eagles over the next few years will be easily and readily tied back to Cleveland for two reasons. First, Tom Heckert arrived from there and second the Browns are annual candidates to pick in the top ten of the NFL draft. Combine that with the shakeup at the quarterback position over the last year and why wouldn’t the rumors crop up about the Browns and Kevin Kolb?
Browns fans (as usual) are all over the map on this. Pretty much everyone I have heard from is in favor of bringing in Kevin Kolb to varying degrees. Some are very strict about not wanting to give up too much because Kolb is an unknown quantity with three career starts. Others are so desperate to try and solve the Browns’ future quarterback questions that they have suggested parting with any number of Browns assets. Some have suggested a first round pick, Shaun Rogers, Eric Wright or some combination of one of those along with lower draft picks or swapping picks. Many of these are way off base and others are interesting, but let’s get into what kind of value could be demanded for Kolb.
Matt Schaub was traded from Atlanta to Houston in February of 2007. Houston and Atlanta flip-flopped first round picks in the first round and Atlanta also got Houston’s second round picks in both 2007 and 2008. Additionally Houston had to get Schaub on a contract extension, which they eventually did for 6 years and $48 million. Schaub was a three year backup and 25 years old when he was traded. I would say the deal has worked out pretty well for the Texans as Schaub has had QB ratings in the 90’s with more TDs than INTs the last two years.
The Matt Cassell trade is another that could shed light on Kevin Kolb’s value. The problem with the Cassell scenario is that the Patriots had to franchise Cassell before trading him. After franchising him, his price tag became $14.65 million for a year. With that financial commitment, the Patriots reduced their bargaining power in trading him. He was eventually sent to former Patriots exec Scott Pioli in Kansas City for a second round pick (#34) along with veteran linebacker Mike Vrabel. It shouldn’t be surprising that Bill Belichick would ship out a player who was entering the twilight of his career on the verge of free agency like Vrabel as a part of that deal. And Cassell had to paid so much money that it makes sense that New England had to sweeten the pot a bit to get a full second rounder. Then again, I am sure Kansas City was happy to part with that draft pick to fill up that cap space with Vrabel and Cassell.
So, what does this mean for the Browns if they engage in Kevin Kolb discussions with Philly?
First of all, I would be shocked if anything actually happens in the middle of the season, even as early as we are. The Eagles have chosen to go with Michael Vick because of what he did last week, but he is far from a sure thing. He looks good now, but Vick is always in danger as he tends to make plays with his feet. Would the Eagles really go into the rest of the season without Kevin Kolb on their roster as their safety net? Also, do they know enough about this latest iteration of Mike Vick to know that he is their answer for the future? In my mind there are more questions than answers in Philly right now, and I wouldn’t guess they will look to do anything drastic (like trading their opening day starter) after the second week of NFL action. Obviously nobody thinks this is a Charlie Frye situation.
Beyond my doubts that they would actually trade him to anyone during the season, what is he worth? I would not trade a first round pick for Kolb, obviously. Kolb is on a two-year deal worth $12.25 million guaranteed making him a free agent in 2012. He has started three career games and there are questions as to how good he will be as there are with any QB prospect.
I wouldn’t trade a guy like Shaun Rogers to make a deal like this happen. The Browns need all the starters they have, including Rogers, despite Ahtyba Rubin’s development. Eric Wright’s name was bandied about, but I don’t understand why any Browns fan would want to trade a corner after the Browns finally established a bit of depth at the position just this season.
If you put a gun to my head to put together a deal for him today, I would be thinking kind of like the Schaub deal. If the Browns could swap first round picks and include a 4th or a 5th I might be interested. I was having a bit of fun on Twitter yesterday suggesting that there might not be a better potential backup to Mike Vick in the NFL than Seneca Wallace. Ultimately though, you have to trust Tom Heckert in this situation. He should know Kolb as well as anyone in the Eagles organization.
I wouldn’t expect it to happen, but it would certainly liven up the potential for the future of the QB position in Cleveland.
36 Comments
As much as I don’t like the idea of waiting even longer for success, I think the Browns need to follow the Holmgren strategy of drafting a QB in the 2nd or third round every year until one works out. Trading to get a QB with “unknown potential” is expensive so you might as well pay less for that same potential by taking a QB in the third round of the draft (see McCoy, Colt).
Until then, we wait…
Why are you overcomplicating this matter?
@1 – If you can get him for a second or a third why not do it then? He’s a young guy with some NFL experience already and when he’s been in (barring the first game against probably a top three nfl defense) he’s proven pretty good with mediocre receivers.
All I’m saying is that all thing equal Kolb would be less down time than developing a college level 2nd or 3rd rd pick. Just as long as they don’t over pay.
@1 I agree with you. As Browns fans, we are so quick to give up on everything so quickly. I know we lost to two of the worst teams in the NFL, but man we have to be patient. Look at the successful teams in the NFL. What do they all have in common? They have consistency from the top down. Until we as fans stop being so impatient, we will never be a winner. I know it is hard watching our team lose week in and week out, but this revolving door of FO and HC is not working either.
We will likely be picking in the Top 10 (maybe even Top 5) again this season. Agreeing to swap first rounders seems like a stupid idea to me based on that.
Additionally this should be one of the deepest QB drafts in ages. Locker, Mallett, Luck, Ponder… Hopefully we have the scouting department in place to identify which of those guys has a possibility to work out and we can target him in the draft if QB is really the direction that we need to go.
Like someone said in another thread, it is going to be hard for any QB to be successful here until we get some real talent to catch the ball!!
I am always up for aquiring more QB talent so count me in. However, I read this at rotoworld.com this morning which scared the hell out of me.
*Just how highly does Heckert regard Kolb’s talent? Three years ago, when he was considering an invitation to join the Falcons’ front office, Heckert would have given Reid “whatever he wanted” for the opportunity to bring Kolb along with him to Atlanta. “A one (draft pick), a two … two ones,” said Heckert. “No joke. Kolb is legit.”*
Sorry, no thank you. Way too high. I can only hope Heckert, Holmgren and the rest of the Browns front office aren’t that dumb to offer that. Word was the Eagles we asking for the Browns #1 this past spring for Kolb and the Browns turned them down. Given Kolb’s precieved “failure” in losing the starting job to Vick, I can only surmise that the price has dropped.
Here is the link. http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NFL&columnid=77&articleid=36298
Trade Value?
Daboll, Mangini, Veikune and Mccoy.
I am 100% ok with a trade for Kolb. He’s a potential franchise QB (Andy Reid thought he was a sure enough bet to trade away McNabb), has a couple of years of some of the best QB coaching in the league, has already had some success starting, and he’ll cost less in guaranteed cash than a top-5 or top-10 pick. I’m not shocked that the former #1 overall pick with years of NFL experience eventually beat Kolb out for the job; Vick just needed a year to get in real playing shape. The fact that he’s not as good right now as one of the best athletes to ever play the QB position should not reflect poorly on Kolb in any way. And yes, Luck or Locker might work out, but half of all first round QBs crash and burn spectacularly (and 100% of Browns first round QBs seem to be on the wrong side of that statistic).
I may be in the minority here, but I also think there would be real value in getting our “QB of the Future” debate solved before a lockout (and avoiding giving a record amount of guaranteed cash to someone who has never taken a snap in the NFL or dealing with an extended holdout until the new CBA is buttoned up).
I would like to add Maiva into that trade as well
Oh andChansi Stuckey and Abe elam…. Any other ‘Mangini’ guys I’m missing?
Anything better than a 4th rounder and they’re crazy. They just benched him, basically sh@t all over his value, and they want a decent pick?
Child please.
Im on the get WRs first train too.
@JK – I agree that WR seems to be a bigger problem than QB, however aquiring a QB does not prevent the Browns from aquiring WR’s too.
Sell off that 3rd rounder they’d select a project QB and use it on Kolb and take A.J. Green/Mike Floyd (assuming he turns it around from a bad start)/Julio Jones with our first round pick.
Two birds effectively killed with one stone. The problem is getting Philly to take that.
Mark – Point taken. BUT how can we know what we have with Delhomme/Wallace and eventually McCoy if we dont have anybody to catch the ball? If Peyton Manning was our QB I have a hard time believing that we would score more than 21 points a game consistently
JK – I will disagree. Payton makes Austin Collie and Perrier Garcon look like Pro bowlers. Our offense line is a huge upgrade to Indy’s. It’s all about the QB. I would not be against Paying V. Jackson in the off season and trading for Kolb and still having the top three pick. Because we might win 4 games this year. On top of all of that add Gruden and we could have a real football team pretty quick. I know thats a lot of ifs but actually not that unreasonable.
Good points. However, Collie/Garcon are way better than Robo/MoMass
It would not matter if Jesus Christ was our QB with Daboll running the offense.
Of the three areas we need filled on offense, the priority should be OL, QB, THEN WR. Why? Because a good-to-great OL gives the QB, regardless of skill, more time to find the open man and more of a chance to throw the ball to that open man without being hit. If a team can find even decent, possession type of WRs (not unreasonable, as WR is usually a fairly available position in free agency or mid-to-late in the draft) in that type of situation, then that team can compete effectively. The example of a team with a good (certainly no longer great) OL and a great QB and mainly decent WRs is, as mentioned, the Colts. The Ravens Super Bowl squad from the start of the 2000s show what a running game, good OL, and mediocre-at-best QB can do (not to discount the defense there though, as it put them in good positions routinely). I don’t consider Kyle Orton to be anywhere near great, nor his WRs amazing, but Denver has protected him thus far this season and he has had time to work with what he has. The result? They have won games, rather than “just be competitive” for a half then flaming out.
Drafting a WR with what will be a top 3 pick is a gamble I don’t believe we can afford to take, not when more important holes need to be filled. Assuming Lauvao pans out (still not sure why everyone seems convinced he’s a lock for greatness: based on what exactly?), RT is still a need. I’d rather my investment be in the type of guy that can help anchor my OL for 10 years than a WR. Not typical to pay a guy on the right side that much, but then trade down a bit and take him at a more palatable price. I don’t like the idea of another first round QB in the top 3, but even that would be preferable to a WR that early in my book.
Kolb for a mid-rounder? Ok. But Philly would be crazy to take an offer that low, given the info provided in this article.
Finally, I want to once again mention to those who think Jon Gruden is the answer for the Browns: be careful what you wish for. The man spent year in Tampa taking that team (Tony Dungy’s team) from Super Bowl winner to laughingstock by showing an complete inability to evaluate or develop talent, while being completely indecisive regarding the QB spot, which he loaded up with has-beens and never-weres. Jon Gruden is not a good football coach over the long term, period.
FIRST !…. WR’s… then QB.
@19 – maybe the funniest comment ever posted on here!
i’d value Kolb at Colt McCoy plus a 3rd round pick. Maybe a 5th rounder, too.
i think the Eagles value Kolb at a 1st round pick and a starting D-Lineman.
I think I would honestly have one of those top-3 QB’s from next year’s draft.
Here is the question you need to ask: in 5 years, do you think Kevin Kolb will be better than Jake Locker (et. al)?
Also, I am SO SICK of this “the offensive line has to be good for the team to be good.” Is everyone a moron or am i the only one who has figured out that what this quote means is: five-to-six of your starting eleven players have to be really good if you want to have a good team. What a brilliant idea…if half of my team is good, i can have a real good team.
Get me a damn running back who can play. period.
I would like to think that at this point, Holmgren/Heckart have given some basic thought to what they might be looking to draft next year. If part of that thought process is to draft another QB in the 2nd/3rd round, I think you have to be willing to trade that pick for Kolb. Put a different way…if Kolb was able to re-enter the draft and was still sitting there in the 2nd round, would you take him? If the answer is yes (it would be for me), then I don’t see how you shouldn’t be willing to offer a 2nd rounder for the guy.
i dont want kolb. i definitely dont want to touch him with either our 1st or 2nd round pick.
@b-bo20, agreed on every point [including gruden].
@saggy23, … [self-edit] …disagree.
To those saying that Kolb is worth trading a 2nd or 3rd round pick, the answer is NO. Kolb is certainly more expensive than a 3rd round pick and probably a 2nd round pick as well. Plus, he’s only made 3 STARTS in the NFL.
I understand that a college player coming out of the draft will have no pro experience, but a 3 game record is hardly a sample size large enough to say he’s “looked good so far.”
There will be a lot of QBs in this year’s draft. You just have to keep drafting them in the middle rounds until one works out. Then, you can be a good team for 10 years or until that guy suffers a career ending injury.
Face it…most teams that achieve success for the long term with their QBs either drafted them or immediately traded for them soon after they were drafted. Guys like Matt Schaub are the exception. The only way to buy success at QB is to sign a free agent that is heading into his twilight and pay a fortune for him. For example, the Washington Redskins with McNabb.
@26 – and how many starts has that rookie QB you’ll be drafting in rd 1-3 had in the NFL?
The problem is the Eagles value Kolb too high and Tom Heckertt might just be willing to pay that much. If we end up giving up a 1st/2nd round pick to get this guy I will lose all of the “wow we finally have a real front office” optimism that most of us gained this past offseason.
@ C-Bus Kevin – I’m not sure I am seeing your distiction. There are plenty of succesful QBs right now that were obtained the same way we would get Kolb. Favre, Hasselbeck, Schaub, Brees (kind of) just off the top of my head. I think it is interesting that Holmgren was involved in getting 2 of those guys (Favre and Hasselbeck). I like the idea of trading for a young guy who you know isn’t a flame out. Rolling the dice on drafting QBs is scary. I just think the asking price for Kolb will be too high.
I would give a first round pick for Kolb. And I’m not even saying that in sarcastic font.
I think i would rather tank for another year or so, and draft Pryor….
@Saggy.
Remember Barry Sanders? Hmmm?
If Heckert believes, I believe.
I trust H&H until they prove otherwise.
Eagles will want at least a 1st round pick for Kolb
— he was drafted as a high 2nd rounder and they have put time into him
touche, hamfist. touche.
We should stay as far away from a Kevin Kolb deal as humanly possible for just this reason: A.J. Green, and Terrelle Pryor. We need to have at least one Pro-Bowl caliber receiver and a Pro-Bowl caliber QB. It’s now become a necessity in this league to have both of those things in order to win. If we have a top 5 pick in the draft this year, we have to take A.J. Green. This won’t pay off immediately because we still won’t have a QB to throw to him, therefore giving us a decent draft position the year afterwards as well, probably top 10 again. No matter what, we need to get Terrelle Pryor out of that draft. Trade up, sell the farm, it doesn’t matter how, we need him. In both drafts, take defensive picks only, safeties, corners, linemen, whatever. We don’t need to take 1st round defensive picks. I can guarantee that if we have both A.J. Green and Terrelle Pryor, we will become Super Bowl contenders in the 2nd year of Pryor’s reign.