On Monday, we went through the entire Indians roster and looked at all the built in pay raises that the club will be giving out for the 2010 season. After taking a considerable amount of money off the books—in the form of Kerry Wood, Jake Westbrook, Jhonny Peralta and a few others—and adding in the raises that are due Sizemore, Hafner, Choo, Carmona etc., we ended up with an opening day payroll just shy of $50 million if we don’t add any pieces to mix. Last season’s opening day payroll was between $60 and $65 million.
So if the Indians are comfortable with beginning the year at $60 million in a season that is not necessarily projected to be “contending”, that would mean the Indians have about $10 million to spend this off-season.
The question is: should we buy any players? And if so, who and for how much? Let’s look at our major areas of need.
Here are the holes, in descending order, that appear to me to be our biggest areas of need going into next season:
- 3B, Average Bat, Above Average Defense (50% of budget)
- Bullpen Arm, Veteran, 7th/8th Inning Guy (20% of budget)
- RH Bat, Corner OF or 1B (10% of budget)
- Role Players (20% of budget)
You’ll notice there are some positions I’m leaving off. I didn’t include a second baseman on that list. That’s not because I believe in Jason Donald or Luis Valbuena or anyone else. But I do think Jason Kipnis could be a viable option later in the season, and either of those guys should be able to hold the fort until then. On top of that, adding a viable 3B moves Nix back into the second base/utility pile of players. So unless you are convinced Nix is going to solve all of his defensive woes at 3B in a few months of winter ball, I think the team might begin by putting its energy and budget into finding a stopgap to hold the hot corner for a year. That way Chisenhall, who hasn’t played an inning above AA, will have some more time to develop.
I also didn’t include a starting pitcher in the list. There are a couple of reasons for that. First, by my count, we have at least eight guys who could be available to start for us next season. In descending order, they are: Carmona, Masterson, Talbot, Carrasco, Gomez, Tomlin, Huff, and Laffey. All of those guys have started in the Majors, so that’s not even including options like Alex White, Yohan Pino, Corey Kluber and others who might be on the way. Since it’s unlikely that 2011 will be a contending year, I believe we need to separate the wheat from the chaff in that list, and adding another arm to the pile on a short-term deal doesn’t make a lot of sense unless the goal is to flip him at the deadline for prospects. It would just muddy the waters.
Even further, adding starting pitching in the free agent market is a complicated issue for a team like the Indians. It’s fairly clear we don’t have the resources to compete for the big names, so we’re stuck going through the scrap heap. Even guys like Pavano and Westbrook will likely command close to $10 million per season, which would eat up our entire budget. It’s just not wise to invest that much of your payroll (1/6th) for a player who is questionable at best. Which leaves us looking at guys (as Paul Cousineau recently suggested) who are “third tier” starters with major injury and/or performance issues. If it costs $2 to $5 million for one of these arms, what would we really gain? There’s the potential of upside, I suppose, but hanging your playoff hopes on the likes of a resurgent Chris Young or Jeremy Bonderman sounds dubious to me, and for that reason, I’m leaving them off our target list.
So let’s get into the mix. Because I believe third base should be our biggest priority, we’re going to concentrate our energy there.
If we have $5 million to spend on a third baseman for next season, who are we looking at? According to Cot’s Baseball contracts, here’s the list of third basemen who can become free agents this off-season (* indicates club option):
| Garrett Atkins FA |
| Adrian Beltre BOS * |
| Geoff Blum HOU |
| Miguel Cairo CIN |
| Jorge Cantu TEX |
| Eric Chavez OAK * |
| Pedro Feliz STL |
| Bill Hall BOS * |
| Brandon Inge DET |
| Maicer Izturis LAA |
| Melvin Mora COL |
| Nick Punto MIN * |
| Aramis Ramirez CHC * |
| Miguel Tejada SD |
| Chad Tracy FLA |
| Omar Vizquel CWS |
Let’s cut some of these guys right away. Beltre is worth at least $10 million per year. He’s out. Aramis Ramirez’s option will likely be picked up, and if not, he’s out of our price range too. I also think it’s likely that Punto’s option will be picked up. Brandon Inge signed an extension with the Tigers this morning. Bill Hall is a crummy 3B, and Eric Chavez’s career is likely over.
Since we’re highlighting defense, I’ll include career UZR/150 at third base (positive numbers are good, negative bad) along with 2010 wOBA to get a feel for offense (.325 is league average):
| Player |
UZR/150 @ 3B |
2010 wOBA |
| Garrett Atkins FA |
-5.8 |
0.256 |
| Geoff Blum HOU |
6.2 |
0.300 |
| Miguel Cairo CIN |
2.3 |
0.343 |
| Jorge Cantu TEX |
-16.6 |
0.305 |
| Pedro Feliz STL |
14.9 |
0.234 |
| Maicer Izturis LAA |
3.7 |
0.307 |
| Melvin Mora COL |
-1.9 |
0.344 |
| Miguel Tejada SD |
-9.9 |
0.306 |
| Chad Tracy FLA |
0.1 |
0.284 |
| Omar Vizquel CWS |
-3.1 |
0.303 |
So let’s throw a few more players off the list. Garret Atkins, Jorge Cantu, Miguel Tejada, and Chad Tracy all look to be no real improvement over Jayson Nix. That leaves us with Geoff Blum (reasonable defense, below average offense), Miguel Cairo (above average defense and offense), Pedro Feliz (good defense, awful offense), Maicer Izturis (average defense, below average offense), Melvin Mora (average defense, above average bat), and Omar (fan favorite).
Who on this list excites you? To me, the only ones I’d spend any money on are Cairo and maybe Mora. If we can get them for $3 to $5 million on a one-year deal, I’d take it. They’re both over the hill, but might be able to improve the infield defense, which is definitely needed on a staff with so many groundball pitchers, while bringing some semblance of a bat to the plate. Not exciting options, but if I were Chris Antonetti, I’d be on the phone to these two.
But really, I’m not crazy about the options on the free agent market. There’s the possibility that a few more guys could play into the mix as well. Juan Uribe (he of the walk-off sac fly!) is an option, though his defense is pretty questionable at both SS and 3B. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Lopez are some of the bigger names who could be non-tendered this off-season, and each might be worth a look. But again, are these players really an upgrade over a cheap Jayson Nix? I’m not so sure.
The problem with the market then, is that there will certainly be some players happy to take our money, but it’s unclear whether any of them can make the team appreciably better. Or as Billy Beane put it to Peter Gammons recently, “The way the system is right now, there really is no difference between a $75 million and $40 million payroll. I think a lot of small-market clubs […] ask, ‘Why pay $75 million when $40 million will buy me as many wins?’”
It’s a prudent question. Are there any 3B out there in the $3 to $5 million range who are significantly better than what we have? Guys who can add wins to the team? And if not, does it really make sense to go after anyone? Should the team spend an extra $10 million just to say that it did?
Or, do we do what I’ve always thought of as a losing strategy: bring back Omar to sell some tickets. I’ll be honest: it might not be the worst option, considering the dearth of choices out there.
