Ilgauskas on Return: “I Don’t Know What to Expect”
November 30, 2010Manny Acta’s Weekend of Fun
November 30, 2010
This week’s win over Carolina felt better than a loss, but not by much. I know that the NFL is a bottom line league of wins and losses, but when you don’t project your team to be a playoff contender you have to look deeper. You have to look for progress and signs that the team is improving. The good news is that after thinking about it a few days, I am not really concerned about the future of the team even if the present (this week’s game against Carolina) was so ugly. So let’s get to the notes.
– Missing Mike Furrey… More accurately, I should call this missing Eric Wright. I don’t want to blame Ray Ventrone for being exactly what he is supposed to be and nothing that he isn’t, but his jersey was on my TV a lot during Carolina 3rd down conversions. Injuries aren’t an excuse for losing in the NFL, but realizing a lack of depth is important too. The Browns miss Eric Wright desperately even if he has been embattled this season.
– Jake Delhomme is a good theory… We got into discussion yesterday in the comments of TD’s post about Jake Delhomme and his impact on gameplanning. There is no denying that Delhomme’s skillset is a benefit to the Browns in theory as he can run the no-huddle, read defenses and hit wide receivers in rhythm. When he is going well, he opens up the running game and makes the Browns the best offense out of all the quarterbacks. It is perfect in Madden where I can help Jake from throwing the game-changing interceptions. Given what I have seen Jake do in a Browns uniform though, the gameplanning benefits don’t seem to be worth the risk with the lack of ball security. That doesn’t make me right, necessarily. I bet Brian Robiskie disagrees. Still, I will take more three and outs with Seneca Wallace and Reggie Hodges if it means fewer INTs going back the other way.
– Jerome Harrison trade is still bad… I don’t mean to continue to harp on the same things over and over again, but watching Peyton Hillis heaving and breathing heavy at the end of the game made me miss having a second running option. All you have to do is look at the other side of the box score to see the benefits. Jonathan Stewart had 12 carries for 98 yards against the Browns. Mike Goodson had 14 carries for 55 yards and added on 8 receptions for 81 yards. Peyton Hillis meanwhile had 26 carries for 131 yards and 6 receptions for 63 yards.
I know it is amazing and we all love it, but it is too much. Hillis is 24 and due for a reworked contract this off-season as he is set to make about half a million bucks next year in the final year of his contract. Assuming that the Browns are going to get him on a long-term contract it is time to start protecting the asset a little bit. Considering that Mike Bell is little more than a warm body, the Browns really shouldn’t have traded Jerome Harrison.
– Your updated draft needs… If I had to rate the Browns’ needs in the draft currently, I would say 1. wide receiver, 2. offensive line, 3. defensive line, 4. secondary, 5. linebacker. If you have been around this site long, you will know that I love certain draft strategies. So, without knowing what pick the Browns will have and without knowing which players are available, here is what I am thinking. The Browns should take the best left tackle they can find with their first pick. If they can trade down and still do it, they should do that. That left tackle will obviously play right tackle, hopefully for the next decade helping protect Colt McCoy and clearing the way for Hardesty and Hillis.
After that, the Browns need at least one prospect on the defensive line. You will notice I skipped the Browns’ biggest need, wide receiver. I know it might not be popular to say, especially with names like Julio Jones and A.J. Green in this year’s draft, but I would still rather wait it out and allow Heckert to find receivers later. Additionally, it might be a good time to find a free agent wide receiver despite the Browns’ struggles in that department recently.
– Browns’ strength of schedule… A year ago in Mangini’s first year the Browns finished the year with a strength of schedule #22 in the NFL. That means that the Browns were so bad that they could only amass a 5-11 record against the eleventh easiest set of NFL opponents according to Rogers Poll. This season, the Browns are currently #1 having the most difficult schedule and are 4-7. With five weeks to go in this NFL season, the Browns are almost already to their win total of a year ago, having had a much more difficult schedule. So even with the injuries, question marks, and incessant (unnecessary) drama around the coaching staff, the Browns are pretty undeniably improved over last season.
41 Comments
Nice nice nice read.
I will say this, I would rather have our QB situation over Arizona’s. lol.
We have pros and cons for each of our three QB’s.. We (as fans) are weighing these cons against the other two QB options pros. It makes for a good debate.
I would not draft a Left Tackle prospect and pay him top ten Left Tackle money to put him on the right side of the line.
To expand on Craig’s point I have put together a list of draft picks that the Browns should employ to ensure future dominance:
1st Pick – Cameron Heyward
2nd Pick – Mike Adams (hopefully he’ll leave early)
3rd Pick – Dane Sazenbacker
4th Pick – Ross Homan
5th Pick – Chimd Chekwa/Devon Torrence
6th Pick – Brandon Saine
BOOM…SUPERBOWL!
Matty, good point. But, if he’s going to be a dependable guy like Thomas is, I’d argue that it would be worth it.
I think using the second round selection on a left tackle and converting would be better for the team. You can use the first round pick on another position of need and not have to waste 50 million dollars on the right side of the line.
I understand the money argument (a top LT is going to make more than a top RT) but, were we to draft the top LT, we would have one of, if not THE, best O-Line in football.
That’s pretty stellar.
Also, I am hoping that there are some new rules with regard to draft picks and contract dollars. If the NFL isn’t locked out next year, I expect there to be some limitations in place that aren’t currently there.
I wonder how Shawn Lavuo is coming along? Anyone have any news?
I think we should stay away from almost all Buckeyes in the draft save one of their CBs. But honestly there are better options on other teams.
What sucks is that if you look on most “experts” draft boards there is not a WR in the top 20. As bad as I want a top tier WR, this is not the year to take a risk on a CRabtree or Dez Bryant type-because there isn’t one out there.
We should go hard after the best WR free agents and draft LB, OL and DE.
100% agree on Ventrone. he can stay in “The Core Four” on special teams, but when he is one on one with a tight end who is faster and way bigger, its a huge problem. Even with Eric Wright healthy against the Jets, he was in the dime package. I dont get it…
Where’s the guy a few posts back that didn’t like the Browns coverage here? I hope he sees this post. Good stuff, Craig.
Blackmon’s the guy I would go after at WR(though I’m not sure about the baggage). Otherwise, I think we could go after Golden Tate in later rounds. I think he would fit the bill very nicely.
Also wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on another good RB in the draft. Assuming Hardesty can play is a big risk to take. (As they say, it would also make “something” out of you and me.)
I guess the only bright side of the pounding that Hillis is taking is that he essentially avoided 4 years of a college pounding by being 3rd on the depth chart. By my fuzzy, fuzzy math, he should have 3 more years of a career than Darren McFadden. Right?
“Always look on the bright side of life . . .”
1st round- CB
2nd round- DE
3rd round- RT
4th round- LB
free agent WRs, praying that last game’s output from Robo and Mo weren’t illusions, even thought it’s likely they were, or just that Jake has more use for them than he does his TEs, whereas with Colt it’s the opposite.
As long as we don’t draft a 4-3 defensive end and try to turn him into a 3-4 outside linebacker, I’ll be a happy camper. Asking a guy who rushed the passer every single down in college to cover players in space is never a good idea… just ask Kam Wimbley. You can tell just with the naked eye that this Browns team is better than last season, so it’s nice that the results v. strength of schedule also backs this up.
@TSR3000, Scouts Inc has AJ Green as the #6 player. Mel Kiper has him at #3. CBS sports took him #3 in a mock draft. What experts are you talking about?
FYI, Green is an underclassman so it’s possible a lot of those web sites you were checking out didn’t include him because of that. A bunch of them only rank seniors.
I agree with almost everything you say – Wright is missed, look for OL early in the draft, WR thru late picks/free agency, but I do not understand the Jerome Harrison note.
He was not productive this year and apparently was a bad influence in the locker room (pouting, wasn’t practicing hard, etc.). He might have had a big game in mop up duty, but since the trade the Browns are 3-3 with wins over two of the best teams in football.
I think we’d all rather see Hillis breathing less hard at the end of games and suffer a little less wear and tear, but when Harrison was here he wasn’t producing and was a bad influence. I don’t see how that took any pressure off Hillis.
Did I say “Golden Tate?” I’m sorry (and stupid). I meant “Michael Floyd.”
/quitting while behind
A defensive lineman or line backer who can get to the QB still seems like the most pressing need to me. The Browns need a defensive leader and game changer. As long as the opponent’s QB has 15 seconds to stand back there waiting for someone to get open, especially the QBs in the AFC North, things won’t be that great.
And, I’m scared to death of 1st round WRs. That position breeds head cases that early in the draft. I’d be happier if they try to shore that up in free agency.
I agree with @15.
Granted Harrison had monster games last year against the dregs of an easy schedule (remember that Cribbs and Jennings piled up the lion’s share of yards in the Steelers game) but he was largely unproductive this year against a competitive schedule. The output we’re getting right now with Mike Bell is pretty much the same output we were getting from Harrison with none of the illusion that Bell might actually be a feature back.
I agree to an extent that the Browns should look for WR in free agency. With how bad the Cardinals are, and I’m not even joking here, the Browns should go after Larry Fitzgerald. I think there’s a chance you could convince him that, with a young QB on the rise, the future looks bright.
Also, you can never have enough OL and DL. I am a firm believer that a quality D-line can make mediocre DBs look like pro bowlers if they can get pressure on the QB. That’s one reason why the secondary has been abused at times this year. The D-line is not getting enough pressure without blitzing, and even then, they don’t always force opposing QBs to get rid of the ball (e.g. the end of the Jets game).
Finally, I agree, the Jerome Harrison trade was not good. When you are thin at RB, you don’t trade away guys on principle. He may have had a poor attitude, but he still could have been good as a 3rd down and change of pace back. Plus, in an offense already short on speed at receiver, having him catch passes out of the backfield would have given defenses one more quick guy to look after.
Pre-pre-pre-draft talk in November … yessss!
Also, Vengeful Pat, please return the defaced “Joanie Loves Chacchi” avatar, or whatever that was. Believe pre-approval for change is required after your visual identity is established here.
Receivers can be obtained through FA or trades.
Would you rather trade a 3rd round pick for Anquan Boldin and make him a highly paid receiver (with a near certain 85 catches, 1000 yds and 10 tds), or take a WR with a top 5 pick and make him the highest paid WR in the NFL?
Also, to go further with Robbie’s comment about AFC North QB’s…The Browns need to consider their divisional rivals when choosing defensive players.
Basically, the Browns need the defensive equivalent of Peyton Hillis. They need an angry, bad-attitude, nasty linebacker that can chase down and put a real hit on Flacco and, more to the point, the Steelers #7.
The simple fact is that the Browns play these teams twice per year (obvious point) in games that make up nearly 40% of the schedule. If they want to win the division, they need at least one guy that can pursue, and then actually take down #7 when he gets to him. The Browns need a professional cornbread-taker.
Divisional games are almost worth 2 wins. It’s well past time to gameplan specifically for those matchups.
Craig, did I miss something about Joe Thomas? You said “Left Tackle” for a first round pick?
A.J. Green or even Julio Jones would be really nice to have, I’m not going to lie. You can almost bet that Arizona will resign Fitz after dumping Boldin last offseason. Who knows, it’s still November after all.
Doing a quick search, it appears that there are lots of quality WR due to be free agents following the season….sure most of these guys will probably re-sign and/or would be unwilling to come to Cleveland, but money talks…C’mon Randy! (Lerner that is….I don’t want Moss)
Mile Austin
Vincent Jackson
Steve Smith (NYG)
Santonio Holmes
Donald Driver
Mike Sims-Walker
Malcom Floyd
…to name a few
i’m just glad to see some o-line talk. yeah baby!!
mattyfos, i get your logic (why pay for LT if he’s a RT), but bad news. the hit rate for good TACKLES shows that they’re consistently coming from the 1st round. this is cut/pasted from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/T-1980-now.htm. it’s all tackles drafted since 1980 sorted by pro bowl appearances. it’s kinda scary that they’re pretty much ALL first round picks.
Year Rnd Pick Tm Pos To AP1 PB ▾ St CarAV College/Univ
1996 1 4 BAL Jonathan Ogden T 2007 4 11 12 101 UCLA
1993 1 8 NOR Willie Roaf T 2005 3 11 12 110 Louisiana Tech
1980 1 3 CIN Anthony Munoz HOF T 1992 9 11 12 137 USC
1997 1 6 SEA Walter Jones T 2008 4 9 12 96 Florida State
1997 1 1 STL Orlando Pace T 2009 3 7 12 101 Ohio State
1990 1 9 MIA Richmond Webb T 2002 2 7 12 100 Texas A&M
1985 1 6 DET Lomas Brown T 2002 1 7 17 96 Florida
1983 1 4 DEN Chris Hinton T 1995 1 7 11 83 Northwestern
2000 1 3 WAS Chris Samuels T 2009 0 6 9 61 Alabama
1987 1 23 NWE Bruce Armstrong T 2000 0 6 14 87 Louisville
1998 2 38 DAL Flozell Adams T 2010 0 5 11 73 Michigan State
1995 1 2 JAX Tony Boselli T 2001 3 5 6 63 USC
1996 1 10 CIN Willie Anderson T 2008 3 4 12 89 Auburn
1991 3 70 DAL Erik Williams T 2001 2 4 8 72 Central State (OH)
2007 1 3 CLE Joe Thomas T 2010 1 3 3 32 Wisconsin
2001 1 2 ARI Leonard Davis T 2009 0 3 9 59 Texas
1998 1 11 PHI Tra Thomas T 2009 0 3 11 67 Florida State
1997 1 19 IND Tarik Glenn T 2006 0 3 10 82 California
1993 1 9 ATL Lincoln Kennedy T 2003 1 3 9 72 Washington
1986 1 20 BUF Will Wolford T 1998 0 3 13 74 Vanderbilt
1985 1 12 SDG Jim Lachey T 1995 3 3 9 82 Ohio State
1982 1 16 STL Luis Sharpe T 1994 0 3 13 75 UCLA
1981 1 19 NWE Brian Holloway T 1988 0 3 6 48 Stanford
2008 1 1 MIA Jake Long T 2010 0 2 2 23 Michigan
I really doubt this team will be able to grab a high profile WR via free agency. If addressed in the draft there are a slew of really talented guys this year (Jon Baldwin/Mike Floyd/AJ Green/Julio Jones/Justin Blackmon/Ryan Broyles). Some of those guys may end up being around in the second round so like I’ve said before it’s all about who’s available. If were staring at a guy like Robert Quinn or Adrian Clayborn I think passing up a second tier receiver is do-able. If you can grab a guy like Blackmon/Green/Broyles you may also be able to pick someone like Cam Heyward at the top of the second. I’m not sold on picking early on more OL unless we do get a solid WR in FA.
Based on some rough analysis provided by the commentocracy here, which has been most helpful, it seems like you’re bes bet for success is to draft linemen high and find a “known quantity” in a WR through free agency.
And you know what? That makes a lot of sense. WRs can be hit or miss, because you don’t know if they will adapt to the speed of the NFL. Basically, their skills don’t necessarily transfer directly from college.
On the otherhand, the skills of good linemen, both defensive and offensive, translate more accurately from college to the pros, partly because you pretty much know how big, strong, and quick on his feet a lineman will be when he comes out of school.
I guess you could always ask the Detroit Lions how well 1st round WRs work out.
The Harrison trade wouldn’t look so bad if Hardesty were healthy.
Just to throw out the idea: Let’s say the Browns could get a top-tier WR via trading picks. What would you give up to get such a WR?
No clue if this is realistic, but let’s say the Cards put Fitzgerald on the block. What would you give? A first rounder? 1st + 3rd? What if they wanted 1st/2nd/3rd?
golden tate? should they look at grabbing brady quinn or jimmy clausen as well? (sorry! couldnt resist)
I said draft the best left tackle in the draft and move him to right tackle. I would never consider replacing Joe Thomas.
Also, the Harrison trade wouldn’t look so bad if Hardesty were healthy, but Hardesty had already gone down by the time they pulled the trigger on Mike Bell. I agree with a lot of the criticisms you guys have of Jerome Harrison. My problem is that we don’t have anyone else. Harrison was pouting and slacking off in practice, but it isn’t like he was Braylon or Kellen Winslow. This team has strong enough culture now that they could handle one moody guy, especially if they need him on Sundays to protect Hillis a bit.
I love the comments on this. The Boldin trade shows perfectly what kinds of things the Browns could potentially get done with guys that other teams might not want to pay the big bucks. It would also clear up the first two rounds to take care of the offensive and defensive line.
Just a quick chime in….2010 being and uncapped year facilitated a lot of the trades we saw. We can’t count on that being the case from 2011 onward, so while trading sounds great it may be less of an option going forward.
@13- I seem to be misinformed. Let’s leave it at that, ha.
Anyways, I would live Green, Blackmon or Julio Jones.
Have to say I agree with almost all of the draft talk. I’d rather get an established WR if we can swing it, but I’m not sure how likely that is. Perhaps someone out there sees McCoy as a star in the making and really wants to play for Holgrem?
On the subject of Delhomme, I no longer feel that there is any benefit to sitting McCoy once he is healthy. I will say that I’m really pulling for Delhomme to get #2 on the depth chart, though. As in, I don’t think he’s there, but I’d like to see him land it. To me, it almost seems like his interceptions tend to be cockiness. Trying too hard to make something out of nothing and believing he can. If he can think for a fraction of a second and throw it away in those situations, he would be great for this team, and honestly I think he’d still be our #1 if that were the case.
My only issue with Julio Jones is that he may, at best, just be a better version of Braylon: Catches the passes that nobody should catch; drops a bunch that even I could grab (and I’m notorious for “hearing footsteps” – some are even real). Not sure about his “essence.”
I love this draft talk. You know we’ll end up with nothing at all like anything we’ve discussed. “And with the 11th pick, the Browns select Dave Shmidlap, Kicker, San Diego State.”
@23 – read the entire post.
“That left tackle will obviously play right tackle”
Dear lord someone said Larry Fitzgerald.
*drools*
It would a perfect fit though. Young QB who is a leader of men already, in a division that features Anquan Boldin, Chad Ochocinco, TO, Hines Ward, and (I can’t remember his name) the young kid from Pittsburgh.
Add Larry, Hillis, the O-Line, and Colt to the mix and suddenly our offense is keeping pace.
I cannot stress this enough though, we absolutely HAVE (see caps, I’m super serial) a strong presence at the LB spot. Our know our secondary isn’t doing well but, you can’t ask corners and safeties to run around with these WR’s all day with the QB taking his time and waiting for one to slip up. LB’s and D-Lineman in the draft please.
(Ugh, wanted to avoid November draft talk, but …)
Gren, agree. An effective 3-4 defense requires LBs capable of shedding their blockers, flying to the ball and blowing guys up. Impact LBs are almost everywhere but here. Most teams have one they think should be an all-pro because he’s all over the field. Other than Jamir Miller one year, the last guy we had remotely like that was Mike Johnson. We don’t even remember what one looks like. I’m talking about the type of player the opposing OC has to account for, the fear-factor guy that the center and QB point to before the snap. Doesn’t have to be Ray Lewis, a Mike Johnson type would get there and stop the nonsense of 7 seconds to throw, 30-yard screen passes, and huge cutback runs.
I hear Clay Matthews has a son who does that just like he did and … wait …
I really dont think its necessary to draft the top LT (even top LT available) in the 1st round. Pro bowl tackles are based on popularity voting, hence all the 1st rounders. Look at how ‘poorly’ Thomas played last year when compared to his other seasons. You can find good starting RT in rounds 2 or 3.
Also, in theory going after a top FA WR or trading for a top WR sounds nice, but I doubt thats the way they go. Let Heckert draft and do his thing. DL, WR then depth everywhere is basically the strategy.
Maybe we can land Clay Matthews III. All we need is patience. Patience, I say.
Great read and good posts one and all.
IMHO, the Browns have made great progress this year. Another stellar draft/trade/FA season by Holmgren/Heckert & Company and we’ll take another big step.
Realistically, how many more before the Browns are playoff bound once again?
I would argue that, if they can create the same jump again, they will be close. Besides the draft, they got a lot of help via trades and FA – Watson, Hillis, Delhome, Wallace, Fujita, Gocong, etc. and most proved very valuable.
As much as we all like to dream about the upcoming draft, I feel good knowing the Browns are in the excellent hands of Holmgren/Heckert & Company. They have done a tremendous job so far.