While We’re Waiting…Cavs Win Again, The Ryan Bowl, and Braylon
November 10, 2010Cavaliers Continue Fourth-Quarter Routs
November 10, 2010Obviously this is very very early and means very very little in the scheme of things. Most of it is just pure coincidence and anecdotal. Still, sometimes this stuff is more interesting than the things we can make up. I know everyone wanted to talk about the Belichick vs. Mangini storyline last week and I refused to do it. For one, the whole “spygate” affair isn’t our deal. It happened with the Jets. That wasn’t a crime committed against the Browns even if we have Mangini here now. Still, let’s look at a couple things.
Bill Belichick was in his second season with the Pats when Drew Bledsoe got smashed running out of bounds. Tom Brady replaced Bledsoe. Eric Mangini is in his second season with the Browns. Granted two quarterbacks had to go down in order for Colt McCoy to take over and Colt McCoy is a rookie whereas Tom Brady was in his second year. Still, when Tom Brady started his first game for the Pats (not counting the game he took over where Bledsoe got hurt) he was 24 years and 58 days old. When Colt McCoy started his first game for the Browns against Pittsburgh, he was 24 years and 42 days old. I know it is completely stupid, but even the alliteration works. Brady and Belichick. McCoy and Mangini.
Now for the numbers. In his first three NFL games starting, Tom Brady attempted 101 passes vs. McCoy’s 68. Tom Brady completed 58 passes for 57.4% completion rate. McCoy completed 46 passes for a 67.7% completion rate. Brady threw for 618 yards and 2 TDs with no interceptions. McCoy has thrown for 529 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions. Brady completed passes for 5.87 yards per attempt, and Colt McCoy completed passes for 7.44 yards per attempt. Tom Brady had an average QB rating of 77.2 for his first three games and McCoy’s is 83.4 so far. Both QBs went 2-1 in their first three games as starting quarterbacks.
Again, it doesn’t really tell you a whole lot about what the future holds for Colt McCoy, but it is interesting.
Both QBs were subject to a gameplan that didn’t ask them to throw the ball a ton. Brady threw 23 passes in his first game and 24 in his second game. The Pats unleashed him for 54 attempts in his third game because the Pats were trailing San Diego 26-16 in the fourth quarter before Brady led them back to tie it in regulation and win it in overtime. The following game (a victory against Indy,) Belichick reigned in Brady again holding him to just 20 pass attempts as the Pats won 38-17. Sound familiar? McCoy threw 33 passes in his first game against Pittsburgh because the Browns were trailing. Since then, he has thrown 16 passes and 19 passes in subsequent games.
There are a lot of differences too though. Tom Brady had Terry Glenn, Troy Brown and David Patten catching passes. Brown and Patten combined for almost 2000 yards receiving that season. The Browns don’t have nearly that level of veteran savvy at the wideout spot for McCoy to work with. Then again, Antowain Smith rushed for over 1000 yards for Tom Brady, and Colt McCoy has Peyton Hillis rumbling along with 644 yards rushing so far this year.
I am not sure when Bledsoe became healthy again that season, but he never got his starting role back. He relieved an injured Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game and led a game-winning scoring drive to beat the Steelers before again yielding the QB position to Brady for the Superbowl. That move allowing Bledsoe to lose his position due to injury is one of the ones that has made Bill Belichick the coach he is today. He got it right though, didn’t he?
As I said in the open, this isn’t any kind of proof as to exactly what Mangini should do. It is just proof that you never know for sure. There are no hard and fast rules despite what veterans (and Bernie Kosar) seem to think.
14 Comments
“There are no hard and fast rules despite what veterans (and Bernie Kosar) seem to think.”
You’re relying on commenters to Scott’s post yesterday rather than listening to Bernie’s interview. Bernie did not say Colt should not be the permanent starter because of an injury. He only said that the switch must be done with sensitivity to the players who know their own time will come. C’mon, Craig, that’s sloppy, even by internet standards.
“Peyton Manning was sacked 22 times his first year, Tim Couch was sacked 19 times, and Troy Aikman 19 times. Manning had 71.2 rating his first year, Couch 73.2, and Aikman 55.7. The Colts were 3-13 during Peyton’s first year, the Browns were 2-14, and Aikman was 1-15 in his first year.”
Saw this on a Browns message board a few weeks back and puts things in perspective as far as comparing rookie seasons/first few games of HOF QBs and Average QBS….I haven’t confirmed any of these numbers (I know they aren’t as representative as passes/completions etc.), and I’m not saying that Colt can’t be great, but as you’ve stated, it’s way too early to know exactly what we have in Colt…
now that I look at those stats, the Couch sack numbers can’t be even close…..
After a quick check….56 sacks actually…..I knew it couldn’t have been that low.
i’m convinced. 3 super bowls and team of the decade honors, here we come!
“It doesn’t really tell you a whole lot about what the future holds for Colt McCoy.” In fact, it says absolutely nothing at all.
The only real thing that they have in common is the number on their jerseys.
CRAIG HOW DARE YOU WRITE WHAT YOU FEEL ON YOUR OWN BLOG
I have a lot of respect for you, Craig, and this website, but trying to assess McCoy’s potential for success based on 3 games worth of stats is meaningless.
This early in someone’s career, all you have is the eyeball test. When you watch Colt play, ask yourself some questions.
Does he panic under pressure?
Does he force bad passes that lead to interceptions?
Is he patient when looking for receivers?
Does he know when to run with the ball?
Does it seem like the players around him are confident in his abilities?
Really, the only statistical measure of his potential that MIGHT be relevant is completion percentage.
Bringing up the Couch sacks, it’s worth mentioning that a big part of Colt’s and Hillis’s success is the offensive line. Give them credit, those guys are doing a lot of good work which is giving our bigger-name players a chance.
And it means Colt is getting hit a lot less than Couch, which is always a plus.
LoL no pressure Colt just be the next Brady! Great Expectations have already arrived after what just three NFL starts? Welcome to Cleveland.
Hooray! My comment sparks an article!
Hate to tell you Ben, but I had this written for over a day now. Shhhhh don’t tell anyone.
They both wear #12, if that counts for anything
Agreed, I thought Kosar was wrong. Veteran or rookie, players just want the QB who gives them the best chance to win. That has to be McCoy right now.
You should really be comparing Colt to Roger Staubach in his first year in the leg, who moved up to #1 QB after Meredith abruptly retired and Morton went down hurt.