May 19, 2013

Cavs Offbeat: On JJ Hickson, Antawn Jamison and Trade Value

With the Cavaliers entering a bit of a rebuild, the one position that appeared to be set for the time being was power forward.  The “four” spot on the Cavs’ roster featured a 22-year old JJ Hickson, a veteran leader in Antawn Jamison and a duo of hard-working bangers in Leon Powe and Samardo Samuels. 

Seven weeks later, it appears that even the power forward slot is in a state of flux thanks to some considerable underperformance, ocassional bad body language and heavy contractual obligations. 

Hickson had been widely considered to be the future of the power forward position – he was the piece which Danny Ferry would not part with when teams came calling at the trade deadline.  Athletic, young and possessing a ton of room for growth, Hickson had fans in awe at times.  Unfortunately, said awe transitioned quickly into guffaw, mostly in disbelief of how the mental side of the game has not caught up to his physical talents despite being in his third year within the league.

Antawn Jamison provides a completely different scenario.  Now in his 12th season, Jamison is understandably older, slower and less of a slasher than Hickson.  He is due to make approximately $12 million dollars more and appeared ready to be moved to a contender in a similar regard to his arrival in Cleveland less than one year ago. 

But what has transpired over the last few weeks has allegedly changed the perception of what is in store for the future of the Cavaliers frontcourt.  Hickson has seen his playing time decline, receiving just nine minutes in Wednesday’s loss to the Bulls.  He is admittedly “not happy” with Byron Scott’s move, but did say that he will be professional about it.  Unfortunately, it appears that Hickson’s definition of professional is slouching on the bench with towel over his head – furthering the gap between he and his head coach, his second coach in two seasons with whom he has not exactly seen eye-to-eye.

While Hickson has declined in terms of playing time and production since the opening week of the season, Jamison has taken the completely opposite path.  Recovering from a bit of a wonky knee early on, ‘Tawn averaged 13.1 points and 7.1 assists in November, 16.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.8 three-pointers in December.  He can frequently be seen calling plays from the post, facilitating Byron Scott’s Princeton offense, and leading by example to make sure that the other four members of the team are in constant motion.

So given all of the above, where do the Cavaliers go from here? The answer depends on the direction in which other teams choose to go.  No longer in a position of leverage, the Cavs are forced to assess the landscape and make moves more for the long term than they had in the past.

Antawn Jamison, who the Wine and Gold acquired for the net of a first-round draft selection, is a tough piece to value.  As told to WFNY by a league source, he is relatively untradable at this stage given that most teams are not willing to take on his contract (due approximately $15 million next season), the uncertainty surrounding the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and that the Cavs would have to receive assets that would cost them at least $13 million this season.  Couple this with the fact that Byron Scott likes what Jamison brings to the table, he is still one of the most respected players in the NBA and his deal becomes very valuable next season, Chris Grant may be forced to bite the bullet for the 2010-11 season and keep the veteran leader around.

Conversely, Hickson is 22-years old, is still considered to be a raw, untapped player and is only due $1.5 million this season and $2.3 million in 2011-12.  While he is a restricted free agent beyond 2012, the fact that Hickson has relatively underperformed to this point could make some general managers feel that he could be re-signed for a decent value.  Seeing what Hickson can do when he is along side a playmaker like LeBron James, he could be seen as a strong complimentary piece to a team that already has a No. 1 option on offense. 

Also in Cleveland’s favor, if they were to shop Hickson, are that his per-36 minute/40-minute statistics are strong and have improved year-over-year to their current level of 16.7 points, 7.8 rebounds and a free throw percentage of 77.8 percent.  These numbers put Hickson right in line with other notable young forwards like Washington’s Andray Blatche, Jeff Green and Paul Millsap during their age-22 seasons; the rest would be up to the Cavaliers to sell such a line.

It is ultimately important to note that there is no need to move either player at this stage.  Despite the restlessness of the fan base and the clamoring for moves sooner than later, there are no serious discussions being had.  Sure, there are phone calls being made, but these are merely protocol for NBA general managers – they would be doing a disservice to the team if they were not constantly checking the landscape of the league.

If the team feels that Hickson could ultimately provide the same fruit as the abovementioned Blatche, Green and Millsap, there is no need to move him given his current situation.  Jamison’s contract is up after next season, Hickson will only be 23-years old, still entering his prime playing years.  Unfortunately, for Byron Scott and an ownership mentality that still longs for winning basketball, Jamison playing (and well at that) with Hickson sitting does not bode well for the latter player’s trade value. 

The Cavaliers will, at some point in time, have to make a decision as to what the future of the power forward position will be.  But as things stand during the second week of December, they are in no hurry to commit one way or the other.

(Photos by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images and Al Behrman/Associated Press)

  • http://www.twitter.com/azv321 Amin

    If Jamison’s not going anywhere, then Hickson might be the perfect candidate for Restricted Free Agency on the Cavs. If someone wants to overpay, let him go. If no hefty offers are sent his way, we keep him. Plus, Powe’s contract is up this year, as are AP’s and Jamario’s (pretty sure Ferry got all of them through this year with the bi-annual exception and veteran’s minimum, but I may be wrong).

    Basically, as complicated the scenario is, I take comfort in the fact that we’re not cash-strapped in the long-run.

  • Chris

    “From Awe to Guffaw”. I like it.

  • Chris

    Oh, hey, one thing I don’t really get:

    How come we got nothing but a couple pics and a trade exception from the Heat, but if we were to trade off ‘tawn we need to get something back for it?

  • Lyon

    @3 b/c Bron was a free agent, we get compensation. Twan is still under contract, so we’d have to trade him for a matching amount of money.

  • Chris

    J.J. Hickson will be your next Drew Gooden. I’d be willing to bet on it.

  • Lyon

    He’s already got the mentality & hasn’t lived up to his potential, so I’d have to agree with you Chris.

  • http://www.heyhokie.com Vengeful Pat

    Can anyone think of a player who had consistent mental lapses at a young age and ended up overcoming that? I can’t… it feels like that’s the sort of thing that’s inherent to a person’s genetic makeup. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hickson become a more consistent shooter from outside the paint, but I think that his mental capacity will always be under fire, Drew Gooden-style.

  • http://twitter.com/kevinhignett Kevin Hignett

    Hickson, Parker, and the LeBron trade exception (or part of it) for Andris Biedrins and a pick. Takers? If not, why not?

    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2dsperu

  • Lyon

    What’s Biedrins contract? If I remember correctly he makes a good deal of coin and is pretty injury prone. Not sure GS would do that deal anyways.

    But I’m all for the AP inclusion in the trade. Let’s just do that w/o getting anything back.

  • http://twitter.com/kevinhignett Kevin Hignett

    @9 – $9 mil. this year with 4 years left. He has had some injuries, but he’s a pretty athletic 7 footer. He doesn’t score much, but is also extremely efficient. Hence, not many wasted possessions. 10 rebounds per game, plays strong on defense and is the only player on the GSW roster who tries to play defense at all. Makes me wonder how much better his defense would be if he got help from his teammates and didn’t have to constantly bail them out. Gets most of his scoring on cuts, which is right out of the Princeton offense. Moves well for a tall guy, so he won’t slow down the offense or get smoked in transition. And he’s only 24.

    Yeah, it’s a lot of coin and I’m not wild about the 4 year commitment (well, 3.5 really), but if Hickson’s trade value continues to erode, his expiring contract next year is harder to move. And if he’s pissed at Byron, no way will he re-sign either way, so he’s gone after next season and the Cavs get nothing for him.

    Would GSW do it? I can see why they wouldn’t, but they’re not exactly financially sound which makes Parker’s expiring contract and the trade exception tempting. Plus, J.J.’s promise of athleticism (and zero defense) fits Nelson’s preferences. They can play Lee at center and develop the tandem of J.J. and Ekpe Udoh at PF. And they can’t seem to move Monta Ellis’ terrible contract, so they might be willing to do a trade that moves their other big contract instead.

    Maybe…

  • http://www.heyhokie.com Vengeful Pat

    @8, oh definitely not. The guy is a miserable free throw shooter so you can hack-a-Shaq him late in the game. He’s almost certainly a better defender than Hickson, but he has zero upside and you can’t play him at the same time as Varejao because it would put two guys on the court who can’t do much of anything but finish a dunk on offense. So I wouldn’t trade him straight up for Hickson, but then you throw in a useful role player like AP, and it looks even worse. If you’re talking about a first round pick, I’d be willing to listen since the Warriors are certainly not a playoff team, but I also think the Warriors would never give up that pick for Hickson. Also the loss of the trade exception means that you’re essentially trading away another useful player. No deal.

  • Lyon

    Yeah, I’d think about it. I’d still wait until closer to the deadline and see if JJ “figures it out.” If not, then rade away. Just don’t like the idea of jumping the gun now for an average player.

    I do like Biedrins as a player and would love to have him. Just don’t want to give up on JJ yet.

  • http://www.heyhokie.com Vengeful Pat

    @10, another point… Don Nelson isn’t the coach of the Warriors this season. He got pushed out.

  • mgbode

    i’ve never been a big fan of Biedrin’s and trading away one of our few scorers (when his head is on right) for another guy who doesn’t score is probably not the best idea.

    also, if Hickson is going to continue to be a headcase, at least we didn’t use the #3 overall pick for him (as that was when Gooden went in the draft).

    #19 pick for a guy who can dominate (or disappear) sounds about right.

  • 6thCity

    I don’t understand how JJ is a went from “mental side of teh game has not caught up to physical side” to “headcase.”

    A lot of this must have to do with the changes in the league the last ten years. JJ would still be in college in the 80′s. Now people talk about 22 like it’s old.

    I understand the argument that not many “low basketball IQ” players suddenly turn it around… but 22 is young, people. JJ isn’t going to be the most intelligent basketball player but he could certainly improve his decision making… if i was still making decisions like i did when i was 22, i’d probably be dead.

  • MattyFos

    I still believe JJ is part of the future of this Cavs team. Byron Scott is just trying to send a message to him. If JJ responds well, fine. If JJ doesn’t work on the faults of his game and his and Scott’s relationship is beyond repair then it’s time to part ways.

    Hopefully there is a team that needs a PF like Jamison. The sooner we move him the better. Meaning I’d prefer to move him this year as opposed to next season. I can wait until the deadline or even the offseason. As long as we trade him to a team in dire need so they overpay

  • MattyFos

    There has to be a team fighting for a playoff birth that needs a “stretch four” for the playoff push.. When the next two months play out, these teams will become obvious. Well just need to capitalize on their desire for a playoff run.

  • Kevin Hignett

    @13 – Lol! You’re right, I totally forgot Nelly isn’t there anymore. My bad. They’re still an up tempo team that doesn’t care about defense though, so I think JJ still fits. Re: Hack-a-Biedrins, I see your point, but the Cavs aren’t all of a sudden a playoff team again after that trade. Not sure his free throw shooting should be a big factor.

    Re: AV, he hasn’t been very good anyway this year, so bringing in a starting C means he can go back to 6th man status. Either way, I’m starting to think AV is only a good fit on a contender and should probably be shipped out if the Cavs go full rebuilding mode.

    @16 – Matty, I’ve tried trading Twan too and it is a major challenge. Most teams would have to send back too many players or a similar high priced player. That high priced player ends up being either a key piece that the other team won’t trade or a horrible contract that the Cavs won’t want. AJ’s trade value goes up exponentially next year as an expiring contract. You know, assuming there’s no lockout!

  • MattyFos

    There are some big contracts that I would accept. But yes his movability will increase next season.