The Boots: Cavs Future, 2011 NBA Draft, Basketball Parity, Carmelo’s Knicks
February 27, 2011Open Thread: Buckeyes vs. Indiana, Cavaliers vs. 76ers
February 27, 2011My series on the top pitchers in the Cleveland Indians minor league system continues today with a look at the best prospects out of the pen heading into the future.
Relievers are a tricky pick in the prospect world, because very rarely – especially in the Cleveland Indians development system – are pitchers developed to come out of the bullpen.
Generally, after being drafted or signed, young arms remain as starters in order for minor league coaches to fix all their little kinks and test out their abilities in that role. Then in this usual mold, if a pitcher is not deemed as a “can’t miss” starter, then he is relegated to the future career path as a relief pitcher.
That’s why it is often incredibly much more difficult to rank minor league relievers in a baseball organization, mostly because there are hardly ever any prospects in this realm. But that’s definitely not the case for the Indians heading into the 2011 season.
Loaded with high-impact arms, especially from the 2010 Akron and Columbus teams, there could be a bunch of pitchers making their MLB debuts out of the bullpen for Cleveland in the near future. Additionally, a trio of 2010 draft picks – Robbie Aviles, Tony Dischler and Michael Goodnight – all have the potential to become relievers shortly, mostly because of organizational need and their individual skill sets.
Remaining however, is a difficult list of fairly solid pitching prospects in the Cleveland Indians system. I’m going to do this in a similar format as my starting pitching rankings from last weekend, so bear with me throughout all of the minutiae.
Also for the ease of this experiment, I’m going to count Jess Todd and Frank Herrmann ineligible because of their mild MLB experience already. It’s not really fair to count them with these other players on this list, so that just makes life a little simpler for me here.
Other players considered for this relief pitcher ranking:
RHP Connor Graham, 25 years old, 43 games in Akron
RHP Matthew Langwell, 24 years old, 45 games in Kinston
LHP Chris Jones, 22 years old, seven games in Lake County, 31 games in Kinston
RHP Tyler Sturdevant, 25 years old, 16 games in Lake County, 15 games in Kinston
RHP Brett Brach, 22 years old, 22 starts in Lake County, 2 games in Kinston
LHP Francisco Jimenez, 22 years old, 35 games in Lake County
RHP Nickolas Sarianides, 21 years old, 34 games in Lake County
Again before actually noting the rankings here in this post, I want to invite readers to check out some really cool WFNY baseball analysis from January. After my offseason rankings in The Boots, Jon countered by looking at how the quantity of Indians prospects should still help the team despite the lack of potential All-Star talent. Those are absolute must reads for Indians minor league fans, and are a vital guide for what to watch in analyzing Cleveland’s system. After that, check out these top 10 bullpen arms:
10. RHP Preston Guilmet, 7/27/87, 6’2”, 200 lbs, University of Arizona
June 2009 Draft, 9th round (No. 275 pick)
2009 Mahoning Valley: 6-6. 4.09 ERA, 15 starts, 70.1 IP, 70 H, 16 BB, 62 K
2010 Lake County: 4-1, 2.25 ERA, 30 games (11 saves), 52.0 IP, 35 H, 10 BB, 79 K
A decorated star at Arizona, he turned down a 22nd round opportunity with the Oakland Athletics in the 2008 draft to join the Indians a year later. He doesn’t really have the prototypical size for a dominant relieve, but those numbers are otherworldly last season in the Midwest League. That and his collegiate pedigree alone bring him up on this top 10 list, and he should be someone to watch starting in the Advanced Class A Carolina League with Kinston as the next potential Rob Bryson or Bryce Stowell in 2011.
9. RHP Cory Burns, 10/9/87, 6’1”, 195 lbs, University of Arizona
June 2009 Draft, 8th round (No. 245 pick)
2009 Mahoning Valley: 3-2, 1.93 ERA, 22 games (11 saves), 32.2 IP, 18 H, 6 BB, 37 K
2010 Lake County: 0-0, 2.30 ERA, 14 games (12 saves), 15.2 IP, 13 H, 1 BB, 25 K
2010 Kinston: 1-2, 1.83 ERA, 40 games (30 saves), 39.1 IP, 30 H, 13 BB, 56 K
2010 Total: 1-2, 1.96 ERA, 54 games (42 saves), 55.0 IP, 43 H, 14 BB, 81 K
Starting to notice a trend with these Arizona pitchers? Eric Berger and Bear Bay are two other current/former Indians prospects who fit that mold as well, and I’m still very intrigued here by Burns. Supposedly, he switched to a sidearm delivery a la Randy Newsom in his final year with the Wildcats, and is the rare exception as a developed reliever. But the numbers certainly speak for themselves, and this is a huge year for him at Akron to see if he really fits the prospect identity since he is such a unique outlier among these pitchers.
8. RHP Bryan Price, 11/13/86, 6’4”, 210 lbs, Rice University
June 2008 Draft, 1st round (No. 45 pick)
2009 Total: 6-12, 4.75 ERA, 26 starts, 132.2 IP, 137 H, 41 BB, 127 K
2010 Akron: 6-3, 3.25 ERA, 40 games (1 save), 69.1 IP, 75 H, 22 BB, 69 K
Price really does fit the usual trend of how a reliever is created through the typical minor league process. Acquired in the Victor Martinez trade with the Boston Red Sox in July 2009, he had been a starter his whole career up until this past season in Double-A. In my recent trade acquisition updates last July, I covered how price is well liked by scouts because of his physical presence on the mound and decent pop, and he remains young enough to potentially make an MLB impact down the road.
7. RHP Chen-Chang Lee, 10/21/86, 5’11”, 175 lbs, Taiwan
Signed in September 2008 for a reported $400,000
2009 Kinston: 4-6, 3.36 ERA, 45 games (2 saves), 83.1 IP, 67 H, 28 BB, 97 K
2010 Akron: 5-4, 3.22 ERA, 44 games, 72.2 IP, 59 H, 22 BB, 82 K
I really wanted to rank Lee higher here, but just couldn’t do it. He has clearly been the most consistent middle reliever in the Indians organization in each of the past two seasons, but likely has too low of a ceiling to be that well regarded of a prospect. His fastball can hit up to about 95 mph with some consistent, and has positive off-speed stuff for a pitcher at his level. Scouts continuously were impressed by his stuff throughout the 2010 season, but he just doesn’t have the size most executives would prefer for a late-inning reliever. He’ll likely spend the entire 2011 season again with Columbus, a huge next step in his development path.
6. RHP Vinnie Pestano, 2/20/85, 6’0”, 205 lbs, California State Fullerton University
June 2006 Draft, 20th round (No. 611 pick)
2009 Akron: 2-3, 2.86 ERA, 34 games (24 saves), 34.2 IP, 30 H, 13 BB, 31 K
2010 Minors: 2-3, 1.81 ERA, 57 games (17 saves), 59.2 IP, 47 H, 16 BB, 77 K
2010 Cleveland: 0-0, 3.60 ERA, 5 games (1 save), 5.0 IP, 4 H, 5 BB, 8 K
Here’s where it really starts to get personally difficult in ranking these very similar players. You can’t teach a closer mentality through the minor league system, and that is evidenced by the natural abilities of Pestano. He was a closer in college but had Tommy John surgery right around the time of the 2006 draft, scaring many teams away. He has battled many elbow issues since then, and is fairly old for this category, but still does have some upside after an impressive 2010 season where he improved his slider and his velocity tremendously. Pestano has always been a closer at every step of his baseball career, but will likely play the majority of 2011 as a middle reliever in Cleveland.
5. RHP Rob Bryson, 12/11/87, 6’1”, 200 lbs, William Penn H.S. (Del.)
June 2006 Draft, 31st round (No. 932 pick)
2008 Total: 3-3, 3.88 ERA, 29 games (5 saves), 67.1 IP, 49 H, 26 BB, 84 K
2010 Total: 7-3, 2.53 ERA, 33 games (1 save), 53.1 IP, 31 H, 21 BB, 80 K
One of many players on this list to make a gigantic jump in prospect status during the 2010 season, Bryson definitely needed it after his rough introduction to the Indians system. He was a part of the much maligned C.C. Sabathia trade with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2008, but only appeared in 10 games in the Indians system over the next 15 months because of a variety of injuries. He then shined last year in his ascent from Lake County to Kinston to Akron, pulling off some of the lowest WHIP rates in the system. Because he is still only 23, he’ll likely start with Akron but definitely will play the majority of 2011 with the Clippers.
4. RHP Josh Judy, 2/9/86, 6’4”, 200 lbs, Indiana Institute of Technology
June 2007 Draft, 34th round (No. 1,034 pick)
2009 Total: 4-3, 2.83 ERA, 41 games (14 saves), 54.0 IP, 39 H, 28 BB, 70 K
2010 Total: 3-0, 2.94 ERA, 40 games (2 saves), 49.0 IP, 54 H, 14 BB, 57 K
Wow, this one was tough. Judy is one of my top three favorite players ever from my three-year media experience with the Akron Aeros, and he has done a phenomenal job after coming out of nowhere as a draft pick. He has projectable size, and first broke out as a prospect with 12 wins in relief for Lake County in 2008. He then spent most of 2009 with Akron and most of 2010 with Columbus, and now is on the verge of finally making his big league debut. His home run, strikeout and walk rates all are what scouts want in a prospect with his track, and he is about as close to a sure thing as you get in terms of a future big league middle reliever.
3. LHP Nick Hagadone, 1/1/86, 6’5”, 230 lbs, University of Washington
June 2007 Draft, 1st round (No. 55 pick)
2009 Total: 0-3, 2.80 ERA, 17 starts, 45.0 IP, 26 H, 24 BB, 59 K
2010 Total: 3-5, 3.57 ERA, 29 games (1 save), 85.2 IP, 72 H, 63 BB, 89 K
A comment on my article from August on Hagadone’s transition back to relieving accurately summarizes my current thoughts on his future: “This does NOT seem like the career path of a successful major league pitcher.” I am promising myself that this is the last time that his reputation forces me to rank him above one of my favorites, but there are plenty of reasons to still give him the benefit of the doubt. First, he has tremendous size and ability, there’s no doubt about that, and he still has some time to put it all together before the Indians jump ship entirely. He was added to the 40-man roster last offseason which clearly indicates a long-term commitment in Cleveland after he was the centerpiece of the 2009 Victor Martinez trade, but boy, it has been rough so far with injuries and the like.
2. RHP Zach Putnam, 7/3/87, 6’2”, 225 lbs, University of Michigan
June 2008 Draft, 5th round (No. 171 pick)
2009 Total: 6-2, 4.13 ERA, 38 games (2 saves), 80.2 IP, 81 H, 23 BB, 80 K
2010 Akron: 4-1, 3.86 ERA, 20 games (3 saves), 51.1 IP, 58 H, 9 BB, 41 K
2010 Columbus: 0-1, 3.33 ERA, 17 games, 24.1 IP, 20 H, 7 BB, 24 K
2010 Total: 4-2, 3.69 ERA, 37 games (3 saves), 75.2 IP, 78 H, 16 BB, 65 K
Putnam’s been jerked around a lot over his two and a half years in the Indians organization, first appearing as a reliever upon a May 2009 promotion to Akron. Then he began 2010 with the Aeros as a starter again, before transitioning mid-season and quickly earning a promotion up to Triple-A. He has ideal size and power, and actually was a fairly successful hitter at Michigan during his collegiate days. His walk rates are fairly impressive and that has been a consistent trend throughout his brief minor league career. He is pretty young compared to the rest of these upper echelon prospects, and he should have a chance at Cleveland by the end of 2011. Are you ready to dispel that UM-Cleveland theory again, eh?
1. RHP Bryce Stowell, 9/23/86, 6’2”, 205 lbs, University of California-Irvine
June 2008 Draft, 22nd round (No. 681 pick)
2009 Total: 4-6, 4.76 ERA, 22 games, 70.0 IP, 68 H, 37 BB, 77 K
2010 Kinston: 1-0, 1.42 ERA, 11 games, 25.1 IP, 16 H, 8 BB, 41 K
2010 Akron: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 14 games (7 saves), 22.1 IP, 15 H, 11 BB, 33 K
2010 Columbus: 1-1, 5.49 ERA, 17 games, 19.2 IP, 11 H, 17 BB, 28 K
2010 Total: 3-1, 2.14 ERA, 42 games (7 saves), 67.1 IP, 42 H, 36 BB, 102 K
One could call this a substantially rash decision to move Stowell all the way up to the top spot on this reliever prospect list. But heck, aren’t relievers all about luck anyway? How else could you describe Stowell’s spectacular 2010 progression? He began the year so low on the prospect radar, that Tony Lastoria ranked him as the No. 58 guy in the organization prior to the season. This year, expect that to be in the top 15 at least, as Stowell zoomed quickly up to Columbus with his near perfect performances in his first full-time stint as a reliever. Those 102 strikeouts in just over 67 innings pitched are unfathomable at any level, and you still have to see some positives in his rough introduction to the International League. That’s likely where he will stay for most of this season, but just like his tough-to-hit fastball, he could quickly burst onto the MLB scene.
(Photos above via Chuck Crow/Plain Dealer and Tony Lastoria/Indians Prospect Insider.)