The 5-Hole: Blue Jackets News and Notes – 2/22/11

Every Tuesday, WFNY’s The 5-Hole brings you up to date with the goings-on of the CBJ…

The Week That Was

This Week: 1-0-1, 3 points
Overall: 29-23-6, 64 points (4th division; 12th conference)

Wednesday, 2/16 in Columbus – Kings 4, Blue Jackets 3 – SO – (box) – Highlights
Friday, 2/18 in Chicago – Blue Jackets 4, Blackhawks 3 – (box) – Highlights

Not a ton to complain about here, though the Jackets did have several chances to win the game vs. LA. At that time, though, the Kings were the hottest team in the entire league, and the Jackets came back three times from down a goal to force the OT and get at least a point. They did, however, suffer a blow in losing Derick Brassard in that game to a bruised hand as he took a slapshot off of his hand. Nothing was broken, but his hand was swollen to the point where he couldn’t grip a stick. That’s a bit of a key for a hockey player.

Against Chicago, the Jackets fell behind 2-1, and Chicago seemed to have the momentum and the crowd on their side. So it was that three straight second period goals gave Columbus a 4-2 lead (two PP goals!!) they would never relinquish. Steve Mason was stellar in net, especially in the scoreless third period. In the process, they set two franchise records: consecutive road wins (six) and consecutive road games with a point (eight). They’re going to need some of that magic to continue with a big five-game roadie coming up.

So, now the attention turns to two things: the standings, and the trading deadline. The Jackets can’t seem to move up. They are just four points out of a playoff spot, and also just four points out of seventh place and just six points out of fifth. In short, there are eight teams separated by just six points. Insanity. The Jackets’ one advantage? they have played fewer games than any of the teams in front of them, which means they have more chances to make up that ground coming up.

As for the trading deadline, it seems like ages ago when the team was scuffling and there was talk of an “imminent” big move in Columbus’s future. As of yet, nothing has happened. Scott Howson has shown to be a GM of total patience, so unless a move comes up that he truly believes in, he may just stand pat through Monday’s trading deadline.

Up Next

The Jackets have just three more games before next Monday’s trading deadline, the last of which is the first of a grueling five-game road trip that may make or break their overall chances. But, first things first: Columbus plays three games this week, two of which are against nemesis Nashville, and one against another team just in front of them in the hunt. Tonight the Jackets host the Predators (31-20-8, 70pts), and then on Friday Columbus hosts Phoenix (32-19-9, 73pts). Sunday begins the big roadie, as they start in Nashville. The last multi-game roadtrip that started in Nashville was ugly: 0-4, and it was the low-point in the December/January swoon, though the last half of the last game of that trip marked a bit of a turning point. If the Jackets keep playing like they’ve been playing against quality opponents and on the road, who knows what this trip can do for them?

You can follow me @WFNYDP tonight in the press box for the game against Nashville, and if you’re interested in tickets for either of the two home games this week, get ‘em here!

Full Schedule

Playoff Talk

Man, does it feel good to write that. Two years ago when the Jackets made their run to their first ever playoff appearance, we called upon the brilliance that is Sports Club Stats. There, Ken Roberts uses all kinds of genius simulations and modeling to do three things: “calculate a team’s odds of making the playoffs, or winning the title for sports without playoffs; show how today’s games impact those odds, so you know who to pull for; and showing how well they need to finish the season to have a shot.” And it’s a wonderful site. My favorite thing is the daily matchups, and the roll-over ability to see how each and every possible result affects your team.

There are two pages on this website that are of interest to Jackets fans right now:

Western Conference Odds
Blue Jackets’ Odds

Right now, the Jackets are lagging a bit, mainly because they haven’t had the chance to earn as many points as other teams of late with just two games in the last eight days. They will get their chance next month, as we’ve noted. Bookmark Ken’s site for daily updates on the Jackets’ odds as they improve or fall away as the rest of the season unwinds!

As of today, things look a bit bleak, with the Jackets sporting a 13.5% chance of making the playoffs. There are, however, six points up for grabs between today and Sunday for Columbus, however, so things can change.

By The Numbers

Let’s take a quick look at the Jackets by the numbers, through 58 games:

Scoring:
2.67 gpg (19th NHL)

Defense:
2.97 gapg (22nd NHL)

Power Play:
14.2% (28th NHL)

Penalty Kill:
80.7% (20th NHL)

Goals Leader:
Rick Nash – 27

Assists Leader:
Jakub Voracek – 27

Points Leader:
Rick Nash – 53

Wins (Goalie):
Steve Mason – 20

Goals-Against Average:
Mathieu Garon – 2.60

Save Percentage:
Mathieu Garon – 90.4%

Injury Update

This week, sadly, there is much more to report in this space. First, the good news: Ethan Moreau was back in action this past week, and Derek Dorsett’s “concussion” was deemed not so and he has been practicing and is active for tonight’s game (whether he’ll play…). However, that’s where the good news ends. Marc Methot missed Friday’s game with what was deemed a “minor” injury; Kristian Huselius has missed some practice time with a lower body injury, and then there’s Brassard. The Jackets’ top-line center took a Jan Hejda slap shot off of his hand, and is expected to miss 10-14 days beyond today. Not good times, as the chemistry with the top line was something we’ve talked about at length in this space. Finally, defenseman Rostislav Klesla is almost back to full-go at practice, but is still not going to play anytime soon it is believed.

Quote of the Week

24 games to go, and the Jackets are playing like they want to play more after those.

If we keep playing like this, everything else will take care of itself. That’s what the message has to be now: just keep going, keep playing like this. We believe in ourselves. That’s our goal, to make the playoffs. We’re going to do everything we can to get there.
—Forward Rick Nash

That is one of the big things this team has this year that they didn’t have last year when times got tough: belief that they could win. They all talked of the solution last year being “in the dressing room,” but for whatever reason, they never found it.

This year is different, at least to this point. When the team falls behind, they don’t quit. No longer do they have to try to get ahead and then hold on for dear life—even during the playoff year, they were not built to come from behind. This team is showing that it can come from behind when needed, and isn’t going to let it crush their spirits when they fall behind.

Last year, talk was cheap. This year, instead of waiting for actions to follow words, the words are following the actions. It’s a huge boost, and a huge reason this year’s team was able to weather adversity in December.

…With a Little Help from My Friends

The ever-brilliant Dark Blue Jacket takes a look at the schedule, and comes to an interesting conclusion:

If we know that the CBJ was 5-1 against teams at or below .500 in the prior 10 games, then it seems safe to predict another 5-1 record in the six games that they will play against similar teams.  And, if they were 1-2-1 against teams above .500 in the last 10, that (very roughly) projects forward into a 4-7-4 record in the 15 games against like opponents in March and April.

All told, that works out to 10-7-5, or another 25 standings points.  If Columbus goes 1-1-1 over the next three games (That’s conservative, I know, but I’m guessing any worse and the CBJ garage sale will open up – functionally scuttling the season from a playoffs perspective.), that works out to 28 more standings points.  Add that to the 64 that they have, and that’s 92 points.  And I’m reading from people smarter than I that it will take somewhere in the 95-96 range to make the playoffs in the West.  (I guessed it would take 96 back in October, but what do I know…)

Thus, I’m somewhat surprised to suggest that it will only take a relatively minor improvement in the CBJ’s performance over what we’ve seen during the last 10 games to stay in the mix for a playoff spot.  I say that I’m surprised because I honestly am…I figured that the Thanksgiving weekend meltdown had done in the Blue Jackets.  But that’s not the case.  If the team keeps the same pace that they’ve been on and tacks on a few games taken to overtime instead of lost in regulation, or a couple games where the CBJ steal a regulation win, and we’re seriously talking about a first round Stanley Cup playoffs appearance.  Who woulda thunk.

DBJ points out the implied folly of using past results to predict future performance, especially with some of the mitigating factors he lists. Even still, with the way this team has played of late—and how they played to start the season—we’ve seen extended stretches of very good hockey. It’s not unreasonable, I guess, is what I’m saying.

Let’s hope!