Where Are They Now: The Cy Young Trades
March 29, 2011Some Final Thoughts on the Indians’ Opening Day Roster
March 29, 2011This morning on Twitter, Tony Grossi linked to a website talking about the all-time 1st round flops in the NFL draft. As he noted, the Browns didn’t crack the list, surprisingly enough. As is often the case with the Internet, I found myself on a different page that listed the worst draft classes in modern history. Modern history is considered 1994-2004. 1994 is when the draft was cut to seven rounds. They cut it off at 2004 because they don’t feel the story has been told on a draft class until seven years have passed. The other considerations are the number of years the class played, the number of years they were starters, the number of five year careers, five year starters, career starts, pro bowls, and all pros. Congrats Cleveland Browns 1995, you are the worst.
The good news (in this one isolated case) is that the Cleveland Browns fans never really had to watch these guys play much. Obviously in a perfect world the Browns would have gotten to live through all the flame out of these careers. Then again, if any draft class could be last before moving on to Baltimore, it is nice that it turned out to be one that is this badly. I just wish it had been bad enough to keep that Super Bowl trophy away from Art Modell in the 2000 NFL season.
The site also has some breakdowns of drafting by position which yield some interesting thoughts as the Browns head into this second draft with Tom Heckert. Some of these seem like common sense, but it is good that some can back it up statistically.
Wide Receivers – DraftMetrics says that other than running backs, wide receivers are the riskiest position to draft. Wide receivers are also least likely to start as rookies even if they do work out in the end. 2/3 of the 5-year starters come from the “big 5” conferences, led by the Big 10. I wouldn’t have guessed this.
Defensive Linemen – There is a heavy bias for drafting d-linemen early in the draft. The position is second only to DBs in terms of numbers. About 2/3 of defensive linemen that are drafted between 1-13 will start as rookies. The Browns obviously need one to start if they select a d-lineman with the #6 pick.
Defensive Backs – The success rates among the various defensive backs selected from the first pick to the 48th pick in the draft isn’t very different. This means that teams can do very well drafting DBs later in the first round and into the second round.
So, this just backs up what I was already hoping for. I am not overly excited about drafting a wide receiver first. If Patrick Peterson drops to the Browns, I am fine with that selection. Otherwise the Browns should try to trade down or take the best available defensive lineman. My thinking is that the Browns can draft a DB later and still do very well, but Patrick Peterson just might be a once-in-a-generation physical freak.
Obviously this isn’t to say that the Browns can’t win by picking a wide receiver. It is just an acknowledgement that doing so is a statistically higher risk proposition.
15 Comments
Craig Powell – pioneer Buckeye LB in being a high draft pick to completely bust in the NFL. Katzenmoyer salutes you (both drafted by Belicheck too)
as for Eric Zeier – we’ll always have that one Oakland Raider game where they forgot that Metcalf was allowed to catch passes out of the backfield.
Any idea who the primary decision-maker for this draft was? To what extent was Ozzie Newsome involved?
I think AJ Green is just a sexy pick that people are trying to fit in, but if you look at Heckerts draft history and if you look at how risky it is to pick a bust at WR it really isnt adding up. I can see why Green is enticing. But I also see how many of these perennial top teams are built, and it never works drafting a WR high. Peterson, Bowers or Dareus or else they miss at the top of this draft.
Not that it matters, but is it fair to deem a draft “worst” when the team didn’t have a first rounder? Seems more equitable to line up everyone’s picks beginning in the second round.
What I remember about the ’95 draft was that everyone agreed it was bad. Not sure the PD got their inevitable quote from an anonymous scout saying he thinks the Browns grabbed a “sleeper” who “will surprise some people.”
Agree Harv. It’s like saying the Cavs last draft was the worst ever b/c they had no picks. No picks equals no starts/all stars = worst ever.
I don’t understand your question Harv, the Browns did have a first round pick that year. ’95 was the year they wanted to draft Kyle Brady but when the Jets picked him at #9, one spot before the Browns, Belichick panicked and traded the pick to San Fran and ended up at 30 with Powell.
If the Browns would have stayed at #10, they could have picked up Warren Sapp, Ruben Brown, Hugh Douglass, Ty Law, Korey Stringer or Derrick Brooks, all first-rounders picked after their spot who went on to be Pro Bowlers.
There haven’t been many good drafts period for that team.
As bad as this team needs a WR you have to take the best talent regardless of position. Whether Peterson is a “freak” or not might be debatable but I’d love to see defense drafted. Preferably not a DL though. If you can’t rush the passer at least the trio of Peterson, Haden and Ward are covering.
I don’t recognize any of these guys…this guy’s dead!
Then cross him OFF the list.
@ Titus: my bad, I assumed #30 was a second rounder. Always misremembered that round 2 was where we snagged Craig Powell, maybe because he was so bad.
For the record, here’s how Belichik panicked when Brady went off the board that day:
“Traded 1995 first round pick (#10-J.J. Stokes) to 49ers for 1995 first round pick (#30-Craig Powell), 1995 third round pick (#94-Mike Frederick), 1995 fourth round pick (#119-Dave Barr), 1996 first round pick (#26-Ray Lewis) on 1995-04-22.”
Try not to choke on the final entry. So at least that trade helped the Ravens.
@ mgbode
I believe youre thinking of Todd Philcox, he threw 4 touchdown passes to Metcalf against the Raiders in 92.
And, not to bust your chops, but Katzenmoyer’s career was cut short by a neck injury. Im not sure if its fair to put him in the bust category.
Pretty sad though that Eric Zeier was the best player out of that Browns draft.
@Ghost – dangit, you are correct. The ‘Zeier’ game was the OT-game against the Bengals where he out-dueled Jeff Blake.
about Katz – while true he was cut short by injury there were plenty of stories about him struggling to pickup Belicheck’s defense, being in over his head, etc before the injury. that likely is what makes me put him there (but injury-busts are still busts. as Bobby Carpenter could be considered an injury-bust to some extent as well)
The other problem with drafting a WR high is that those who get picked high turn into the biggest divas in sport.
On a good day, a WR makes maybe 10 plays out of 100-plus in a game. But the divas carry on like . . . well, you know.
Good pick-up on Lewis, there Harv. Forgot about that one.
At least Belichick didn’t get to coach him.
the eagles drafted 3 straight DB’s on 2002, and since that time they haven’t failed to contend for the super bowl.
that’s why i have been saying from the start, and I am again saying now:
patrick peterson for president.
this shouldn’t be a debate…..if Peterson is there…..take him….