MLB Playoff Expansion should aid Tribe, smaller markets
April 23, 2011While We’re Waiting… Camp Colt, a Browns’ draft success, and another Tribe uniform tweak
April 24, 2011Here at WFNY, we’re getting prepared for a week full of NFL Draft talk, so I thought I’d kick that off with a little bit of information regarding first-round booms and busts at the wide receiver position, the leading receivers last year in the NFL by draft round, and following that, take a look at the two first-round receiver possibilities for the Browns.
There has been a lot of talk about the Browns taking their sixth pick on Thursday night in the NFL Draft and taking a WR to aid Colt McCoy in his first year of Pat Shurmur’s West Coast offense. Both A.J. Green of Georgia and Julio Jones of Alabama’s names have come up repeatedly. Many believe that the Browns would take Green if he fell to them, although the Bengals may very well take him with the fourth pick. With this being such a key draft for the Browns, and an ever-increasing importance on it as the work stoppage drags on and free agency remains in deep freeze, I thought it would help to take a look at some of the successes and failure of first-round wide receivers in the last ten seasons.
The first thing I noticed is that there seems to be just as many Pro Bowl and quality receivers taken late in the first round as there have been at the top of the draft board. While Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Calvin Johnson were at or near the top, the late first round has yielded Reggie Wayne, Santonio Holmes, Percy Harvin, Roddy White, and Anthony Gonzalez to name a few. Wideout is also not the safest pick if you’re looking to avoid a bust, just ask Rob Gardner, Charles Rogers, Troy Williamson, Matt Jones, and Rashaun Woods and the GMs who selected them.
Taking a look at the leading receivers in the league and what round they were selected in reveals quite a mixture. In the top 20 yardage wise we have 9 first rounders (White, Wayne, C. Johnson, S. Moss, Nicks, Bowe, Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, and Maclin), 2 each from the second (Jennings and D. Jackson) and third (M. Wallace and Owens) rounds, 3 from the fourth round (Lloyd, Marshall, and Mike Williams), 1 fifth rounder (Knox), 2 seventh rounders (Colston and S. Johnson), and one undrafted (Miles Austin). So, if you can take anything away from that, it’s that the right scouting, coaching, and offensive system can turn a non first-round pick into a legitimate receiving threat just as easily as a first-round pick.
When it comes to Green, he simply jumps off the film to me. He can and probably has made every NFL catch there is while at Georgia: sideline screens, jump ball one-handed snags, deep seam routes, over the middle with contact for the first down, and tiptoe grabs on the sideline just to name a few. The way he shook SEC defenders was downright startling, and his 6’4″, 225 pound frame combined with his 4.4 speed and great hands have most draft scouts collecting drool around their mouths. Green’s numbers weren’t quite as impressive as his freshman year when he Matthew Stafford throwing to him, but he gained 848 yards receiving on 57 catches and 9 TDs.
As for Jones, he is quite impressive too. At 6’3″ and 220 pounds, Jones has similar size to Green but his speed is not quite as dashing and his hands are questionable. That concerns me right there, because we know about those troubles in Cleveland, don’t we? While I don’t think Jones should necessarily be the pick at number six, I do think one of his best fits in the NFL would be with the Browns. As many have stated, his run blocking skills are strong, and if you look at Alabama game film, a lot of his damage was done starting within ten yards of the line of scrimmage. There’s no doubt that Alabama’s run-heavy offense stifled Jones big-play ability, although he was thrown to a stunning 78 times for 1,133 yards receiving to go with his seven touchdowns. Jones also added two rushing scores and 135 yards rushing. So, the real question is how many more explosive big-gainers that we haven’t seen yet are in him at the next-level? The one thing it seems that Jones has on Green is more crisp route running skills. My main thought regarding this is can’t we find someone in the second or third round that is suited for the West Coast offense, with strong run blocking skills and better hands?
So, my conclusion is if A.J. Green falls to the Browns, they should take him. His combination of size, speed, and hands just doesn’t come around every year at the wide receiver position. But, if Jones is the wideout sitting there at six, I don’t know if I necessarily go for him. That’s not saying he won’t be a quality NFL WR, but if it’s a choice between him and Patrick Peterson, Robert Quinn, or Nick Fairley, I think the Browns should look to improve their defensive unit. Peterson is regarded by Mel Kiper and others as the most talented player in the draft, and despite the fact that he may move to safety, a defensive backfield with Haden, Ward, and him has me dreaming of slowing down even the best passing attacks in the league. Quinn is arguably the best pure pass-rusher, something the Browns desperately need considering Ahtyba Rubin would be lining up on the D-line just about alone at the moment. Finally, Fairley had one amazing year, and immediately following the National Championship game, many were clamoring for him to be a no-brainer selection for the Panthers with the top spot.
So, what do you guys think? Do you want Green, Jones, or would you rather spend the pick on defense? Let us hear your take in the comments.
(Photo: Simon Bruty/SI)
21 Comments
Green is worth the 6th pick, Jone is not. If Green is taken I’d say go with the best talent available. We have so many holes that it won’t be hard to find value at some other position besides WR with our pick.
Agree with Gordon. Green is a great looking receiver and Jones is a good one. The offense is void of anything resembling a weapon. Green makes life easier for the other WR’s on the roster. This team needs DL badly but Green looks like a difference maker. After Green, Petersen looks like the next best pick available. With him, Haden, Brown and Wright (giving him the benefit of the doubt after last season) the Browns would have enough good corners to make up for a lack of pass rush.
The Browns need defense…and that is where the focus should be. A WR at this point doesn’t make sense.
I’m just going to throw this out there but, what if Green, Peterson, and 2-3 D-Lineman go in the first 5 picks ? Do the Browns address their other need at Right Tackle ? Do they grab a Linebacker ? Or do they take what’s remaining in the D-Lineman grab bag or Julius Jones ?
Gren,
If 2-3 D-lineman along with Green and Patterson went in the first five, I would say that means Von Miller falls to them, who they would certainly take. If not, Cam Newton would draw some interesting trade scenarios.
Did you really mean to include Anthony Gonzalez in the list of late first round WR successes (along with Reggie Wayne, Santonio Holmes, etc)? Because that dude sucks . His best year was in 2008 (57 catches and 660 yards). Needs more oxygen tent at nighttime.
doc,
Injuries have disrupted much of his rhythm. I still think he has a great chance to become a solid threat in this league.
Gren,
my lord, could the browns make out like bandits if your scenario happens. it wouldnt be unlikely for them to get at least a 2 and a 3 this year, or next year’s number 1 if they were picking with Newton and Von still on the board.
that being said, it won’t happen. and, as i have been saying since January: Peterson.
Very torn on which way the Browns should go. I so want them to build a defense that’s going to make people hurt, but the wide receiver need is so acute it’s hard to not want them to fix that as well.
I guess that’s the curse and blessing of picking so high – you have a lot of needs but no matter who you pick (as long as it’s not a QB) you’ve made the right choice.
You’re right about Gonzalez, Doc. People are blind to his shortcomings because it says Ohio State after his name.
For what it’s worth, this ESPN article (http://tinyurl.com/3vq4gm4) looked at player durability and found that defensive backs, tight ends and linebackers are the “safest” picks a team can make on draft day.
Just so happens the Browns could use some more players in the secondary and a couple may be available when they pick.
I dont think there is any question that the Browns have the absolute worst WRs in the NFL. Its not even close really. So if we draft Green I would be happy. That being said, my dream scenario is Peterson.
i think Kevin says it well.
I would love to draft Green and have him become who they think he should become. But i have big doubts that will happen.
Peterson is a better pick because he is as highly rated (or higher) than Green, and he has a better chance of becoming that player.
That is why I like Peterson.
I agree with Saggy- Peterson may be the best player, and is exactly the type of player the browns need in the secondary.
I’ve tried to say this for a while but I think it is easier to outcoach the opposing team when you have the ball and you want to make them react. Think if Rob Ryan was an OC. If we had a guy that could just confuse the crap out of the defense all the O does is play pitch and catch. From defense, if you get a lot of guys with loads of talent to react to the offense then you can just man up and beat ’em. Haden, Ward, and potentially Peterson would beat the crap out of opposing WRs for the next 7+ years. How do you pass that up? It makes defense so easy.
Doc, you are correct. Unless they were flashing back to Sesame Street:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Sgk-ZYxKxM&feature=fvwrel
Well played, Vagabond.
Perhaps, Gonzalez doesn’t belong in that particular group, but I still think he has a chance to be a great success, two years of around 700 yards receiving (his first two years in the league, I’ll remind you) are nothing to shake your head at.
Buckeye bias acknowledged and noted.
@kevin16, beg to differ. see rams, st. louis. i’ll take mo-mass over danny amendola. i’d be ok with green (not jones), but i dont its as dire as many of us.
1. peterson
2. green
3. fairley
(and secretly hoping peterson and green are gone. i’ve completely talked myself into fairley.)
I dont pretend to be any kind of draft expert or armchair scout. But, I actually saw AJ Green play when he was in high school. Even then, you could tell the guy was on a different level. Great athlete, he could be the playmaker that the Browns have been sorely lacking over the past 3-4 years.
Agree with a lot of the commentary here – minus the negative Jones jive. If Peterson falls and we could trade back to 9 with Dallas, or 10 with Washington and get their 1st/2nd this year, I’d be ecstatic – true, this’d mean losing out on a possible lights out corner, but I LOVE what Haden brings, and would love the extra talent PLUS a more than solid player (Quinn, Jones, Bowers all possible still – yes, I KNOW the knee concerns, but I trust in Heckert – if he pulls that trigger, I believe he’s done due dilligence).
2nd round of Paea and Hankerson, or Torrey Smith would make me grin for days. We may salivate about the thougth of Haden and Peterson – but depending on the wage scale, and the future cap, how long can we maintain the percentage of our pay to our two corners and ignore the rest of the field? The d-line’s a ghost town, and the corners, well, they’re what they are.
PS – Dawg Pound v Dog Killer for Madden cover – GO THUNDER!
I say we take Peterson no matter what, provided he is still there. My player list for the spot goes: 1. Peterson 2. Green 3. Quinn. That’s out of who I think could be there at that spot. Heckert has had a solid track record with drafting WRs in the later rounds, so I say we go with that route for WR talent. Having Peterson with Haden and Ward in the backfield is just too enticing to pass up and would give us a Ravens-like core for our defense.
@Mews I’d love a trade with Washington, but I can’t imagine them giving up their 1 and 2 picks when they have 0 picks in rounds 3 and 4. The skins will be trading down, not up. I suppose Dallas is a possibility, but I honestly can’t see anyone trading up into the top 8, it just costs too much for unproven talent.
Peterson if he’s there – If he’s not take Green, Quinn, Bowers or trade down for Julio Jones or one of the above. 2nd round – Leonard Hankerson, ’nuff said. GO HECKERT and “HOMEGRUM” (Sam Rutigliano)!
This article is a bit misleading.
Julio is definitely faster stronger and weighs more than AJ.
AJ’s main advantage is his hands, but Julio has real good hands also. The ones that he drops are when he turns up field to crush a cornerback too soon.
I welcome the type of fire and passion that Julio would bring to the offense.