While We’re Waiting… Trading Hickson, NBA Locked Out, and Tribe Call Ups
July 1, 2011Terrelle Pryor Comes Off Fine on ESPN
July 1, 2011
Before we even get started, let’s not pretend like the Indians were ever truly in the market to trade prospects for a guy on a contract year making $11 million with the prospect of making Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford type money. The Indians have made it clear that this couldn’t be further removed from their business plan.
Just to remind you, Carl Crawford is making $14 million this season, almost $20 million next year and will make $21 million in 2017 as a 35 year-old. That should be just in time to come off the bench as an underachieving pinch-hitter to hit a grand slam against a young “up and coming” Indians team in the ALCS, but I might just be bitter. Let’s go through the exercise anyway just for kicks.
Jose Reyes is having a phenomenal year batting 0.349 with an OBP approaching 0.400 with 30 stolen bases. He is a player who relies on speed. And wouldn’t you know it? He is having his best year as a pro when he is playing for the biggest contract of his career. That just never happens, does it? So, what would it take to get a player like Jose Reyes from the New York Mets?
Last night on Baseball Tonight they suggested it would take two prospects in the A to A+ range. Maybe an A+ and a B+ type of prospect. Now, I don’t know if this is accurate or not, but let’s go ahead and pretend that this is the case. I went to Twitter to figure out what names in the Indians organization we could be talking about. In the end I heard names like Cord Phelps, Drew Pomeranz, Jason Kipnis, Jeanmar Gomez and Katy Perry. Oh that last one was just ringtone Twitter spam. Do people really still buy ringtones?
So pick any two of those names and trade them to the Mets for the right to engage in contract negotiations with Peter Greenberg or Scott Boras. Meanwhile, the Indians aren’t really negotiating as much as pretending that they don’t know that Jose Reyes is going to get something in the neighborhood – and probably north of $20 million per season. In Cleveland Indians payroll terms you can call that a roughly 42% increase in payroll over this season’s roughly $48 million total. On one single player.
Meanwhile, the Mets are probably looking for pitching and in order to bring in a super position player, they potentially could chop the legs out from under the future of the pitching staff. Getting good pitchers seems to be a game of numbers. Rather than having only a couple of names with potential you’d probably rather have two more names like Gomez and Pomeranz to go along with a name like McAllister.
Not trading for Jose Reyes doesn’t make the Dolans cheap either. I fully expect the payroll to grow over the next few years as some of these younger players come into their own. Consider that Asdrubal Cabrera is making $2.025 million this season with two upcoming arbitration years before becoming a free agent in 2014. The Indians will spend some more money. That being said, with the way the game is currently set up, the Indians will not be paying a single player $20 million anytime soon.
That doesn’t mean the Indians can’t win it all either. Last year’s Giants won it all with their highest paid player making $18.5 million. You know who that player was? It wasn’t Tim Lincecum. It was Barry Zito. The Giants went on a run and won the World Series in spite of having one of the worst contracts in the Majors on their books. The Indians can do it too, and they might even find it easier if they never have a contract like that sitting on their books.
And they won’t, I don’t think. The Indians seem to want to put multiple years of contention together in the mold of the Minnesota Twins. Somewhere down the road the Indians may rent a player for prospects, because they think they are that close, but it certainly won’t be in year one of the cycle. Despite how badly we all want this year to be the year, it is important to remember that this is year one and it might not have been in the plans for it to be this year this early.
31 Comments
i doubt the Mets are trading Reyes (even though they should since they won’t resign him)
i fully agree that we shouldn’t be giving up top-level talent for a rental player.
i also agree. although, i wouldnt mind buying low on david wright? can that happen? fausto for wright! lets start the chatter. in all seriousness though, we clearly need another outfield bat. i dont care where we get it, or if its a rental player, but we need one. i cannot believe we are winning with a bunch of guys hitting 220.
File this one under “duh.”
/sorry
If they would like to take Grady or Fausto off our hands than I say go for it but otherwise, I don’t see trading for Reyes making much sense. He plays the same position as our best player and is going to get wildly overpaid by somebody next season. I don’t want to morgtgage our future for a half a season of a leadoff hitter.
You mention that it’s not part of the Indians’ business plan, but you don’t say what is their business plan. So I’m going to lay it out for everyone:
Year 1 – be awful, even if it means trading your stars for mediocre players
Year 2 – be awful again, even if it means trading the stars who you couldn’t trade in year 1 because they were injured.
Year 3 – Be mediocre, as it turns out that the super high level prospects are actually mostly medium level prospects, with a few really good ones
Year 4 – Be awful again, as you trade the really good ones.
@5- I think that is unfair. Considering what they have to work with, I am impressed we are .5 out of first in July.
Then again, if we aren’t in the playoff in either 2012 or 2013 then I am with you.
Most pointless article ever. The lockouts need to end. This would NEVER happen.
Most pointless article ever. The lockouts need to end. This would NEVER happen.
@5 – Why don’t you go just save everyone some time and not comment on Indians stories if you don’t like them? I happen to like the team, and baseball in general, and support them no matter what. If you don’t want to support them except when they are contenders that is fine. Just don’t complain about the team when you only care when the team is good.
As I’m typing this it sounds to me like you are like LeBron when he was a kid. Only supporting a front-runner. Go be a Yankees/Cowboys/Heat fan. Nobody here will miss you, I promise.
If my article was pointless, what does it say for your comment?
@9 Andrew – actually, it’s the other way around. I hate the Yankees because they take themselves way too seriously for a team that has one thing over the others – money. I don’t only care when a team is good. I follow the Browns and the Cavs, etc. But I do think that baseball is dumb as long as there’s no chance for a team like the Indians to compete. I will wait for you to respond “Well, if you don’t like it don’t follow baseball,” at which point I will respond that I don’t not like it the way I don’t like Taylor Swift or planking. I have an active interest, and dislike for the way baseball is set up.
@10- OOoooooooooooooooh.
It’s best to ignore those things. You come off much worse than the commenter.
Cleveland Sports Blog Troll Plan:
1.) find any reason possible to bash the Indians.
2.) take the side of the ‘stars’ who never had intentions of staying in cleveland.
3.) bash the prospects.
4.) go find a cavs article and talk about how much potential jj hickson has.
216: I don’t know where all these assumptions come from. The “stars” don’t need defending, they go where the money is. I am not bashing the Indians, they do as well as they can in the current system. Only a few small market teams do a better job of competing, and at the REAL small market purpose of developing players for the Yankees and Red Sox, no one is better.
I am frustrated with the way baseball is set up, and I see it through the prism of the Indians.
@TSR3000 I know you’re right, but sometimes I just can’t resist. We are talking about sports, specifically one with popularity rooted in rotisserie and fantasy. Yet, I can’t write a completely hypothetical article about prospects, stars, and the business of the game?
With rules like that fantasy baseball wouldn’t even exist and yet that remains an enormous segment of MLB’s fan base.
First of all, the Mets don’t have nearly enough leverage to demand a return that good for Reyes. All this talk of extending him and being more optimistic about his long-term value is just them trying to undo Fred Wlpon’s tipping their hand. Once they fall out of the race, they’d be stupid not to deal him.
Also, trading for Reyes doesn’t mean we’d be obligated to keep him around after the season. He’d do a tremendous amount of good for the Indians down the stretch, and they would get draft picks when he leaves. As long as the price isn’t too high (which it won’t be), he’d be a very worthwhile rent-a-player.
http://www.wahooblues.com/2011/05/12/could-the-cleveland-indians-trade-for-jose-reyes.html/
@16 – what would you consider ‘fair value’ for the Indians to give up for Reyes then?
i think a team will be willing to giveup 2 good prospects (a B+ and an A perhaps) to get Reyes because that also could very well put them in the drivers position to resign him. If I was Philly, for instance, I would offer Rollins+Aprospect for Reyes (Mets get back a player they have a better chance at resigning and can sell to their fans that they got a ‘name’ player back as well along with an A prospect).
Criag, No one is saying you can’t write such articles. I think the minor backlash you are getting is based in frustration. We, as tribe fans, know we will not land the stud player anymore at via trade or re-sign him if somehow we obtained that player.
I don’t speak for everyone, but I want to know who the Indians have a legit shot of landing and who may actually be on their radar.
We are still contending for a division. If we are in a month, will they actually add a legit player or will we get the typical journeyman scrub?
I think most Indians fans really miss the days when we were a major player at the trade deadline.
“I want to know who the Indians have a legit shot of landing and who may actually be on their radar”
Hard to say without knowing the buyers/sellers. Here’s who I would list from some of the teams.
Mets
Pitching – they likely could trade Niese, Dickey, or Capuano if they feel they get something decent back in return. They are all ~#3 starter material.
Bay – they would love to trade Jason Bay. Noone would love to trade for him because of his ridiculous contract.
Dodgers
Ethier – he’d be expensive and doesn’t have much pop + he’s controlled for awhile. but, if they are cash-strapped, he might be one of the guys they consider trading.
Gwynn – he’s team-controlled for awhile, but I really like him and would put feelers in on if they would consider moving him.
Astros
Keppinger – if Phelps can’t handle it fulltime, Kepp’s would be a solid addition and shouldn’t be too expensive to wrangle away from the Stros. We’d likely trade him away in the offseason with the youngsters coming, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see us actually get back more than we give now for him.
Carlos Lee – he’s due $9mil the rest of the year and 18mil next year. If Houston pays 1/3 of that, then I could see us taking a gamble on him. It’s awfully expensive $-wise, but he gives us power and can play corner-OF.
Those are the initial guys I see. I’m sure there are others.
i don’t care what’s on the plans. tomorrow’s success has nothing to do with today’s. that means that if there is a good chance to win NOW – you do it. I don’t think Reyes is the answer, but if he were, don’t you think it would be the right move to gut our future for just ONE title? you would have said no in 1995, but not now?
I didn’t even know we had Katy Perry. I guess she must have been that 4th player in the Sizemore/Lee/Phillips trade that no one remembers.
@ Scott – Nice haha.
Well of course they shouldnt. But wouldnt it be fun? This is why they have franchise mode in 2k 11.
@11- I love the “can’t compete” meme. We were in the ALCS in ’07! If that’s not competing then what is? When was the last time the Browns got that far in the oh-so-fair-and-balanced NFL? Exactly.
@16 – Other teams will be bidding for him too. So they’ll have leverage.
Another thing to think about with the Mets and Dodgers- as cash strapped teams looking to dump salary they’ll probably be interested in cash as well as prospects. And in that kind of fight, I’m betting against Dolan every time.
Roosevelt – There’s no chance for the Indians to compete? The Tribe had the best record in baseball in 2007 and dominated in the 1990s. What’s the biggest difference between the 1995-1997 Indians and today’s Indians? Those teams had fan support, which led to sellouts, which led to higher payrolls. This team spends when it can, but with fair weather fans it’s impossible.
Cleveland fans in general give themselves way too much credit for being great fans and supporting a loser. If you complain about the team nonstop, that isn’t considered supporting them. That includes bashing the manager/coach/players. Can you say what you want? Sure. But don’t go around saying that you support the team.
Well said, Andrew. All MLB teams spend compareable percentages of their revenue on baseball operations and salaries. Want a better team? Spend money at Progressive Field.
@25 Andrew – The difference between the Indians in the 90s and the Indians today actually has more to do with the Yankees then vs. the Yankees today, and that is to say, regional cable networks. The Yankees used to have a few million more to spend a year. Now they have like eight times as much. If the Indians sold out every game and the Yankees didn’t sell a ticket, the Indians would still be unable to compete.
And NJ, I can buy fifty t-shirts and it still will not help the Indians as much as that godawful YES Network crap they force me to watch in the gym.
The Yankees have won one WS in the last decade.
You’re the one who said we have no chance to compete, which is empirically not true.
From a Mets fan:
I don’t think it makes sense for the Indians to go after him now or after the season when Cabrera can give great production for cheap for a few years. Also, the worry with Reyes is that if he does get a 7 yr/140 mil deal, what are you gonna get out of him in the back end of a deal? He’s had more than his share of injuries, and clearly he can perform like an MVP when healthy, but what are you gonna get out of him if his legs are gone?
We can go around in circles about this for hours. The Yankees have made the playoffs every single year in seemingly forever (yes, I know they missed one). So have the Red Sox. The Yankees’s best player now is CC. The Red Sox’s best player when they were great was Manny. There are four playoff teams each year in the AL, and usually, the Red Sox and Yankees are two. Even when they’re not, the wild card is almost always from the East. The other twelve teams battle (well, nine of them, Toronto, Tampa, and Baltimore really have minuscule chances) for the opportunity to lose to a buzz saw in the first round.
Yes, I know it’s not black and white. I know the Angels and White Sox can afford to compete when they choose their spots strategically. I know that a small market team can catch lightning in a bottle every ten years or so, and maybe even make the World Series. But playing on such a slanted field is painful to watch. Were any Indians fans optimistic, up 2-1 on Boston in 2007? I know I wasn’t. I’m not optimistic right now that the Indians will make the playoffs, and if they do, they have less than no shot against Sabathia, Texeira, Burnett, Rivera, and whatever ace the Yankees bring in at the deadline. I cannot bring myself to stake my fanhood on this train that will inevitably crash. In summation, remember that old rating of which team is closest to a championship? Right now, with the Indians in striking distance of first place, the Cavs and Browns are still ahead.
I dont really like contemplating the possibility of getting Reyes when you admit right away its not feasible. I guess there isnt a lot to write about right now, so as blog writer looking for material, I understand. Someone brought up the idea of looking at guys we actually could go after. It’d be cool if you guys did a piece on that.
@ Roosevelt, I understand your point about salaries and the playoffs, but disagree with the idea we cant compete at least for ONE season. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies dont buy championships, but you are right that they buy their way into the playoffs. It infuriates me that people overlook this, and only track championships! If you get into the playoffs 10 out of 12 seasons (or whatever it is), your odds of getting it right at least once and winning it all are astronomically higher than teams like the Tribe, Twins, Royals, etc who cant even dream about making the playoffs for 8 out of those 12 years, and if lucky make it 2 or 3 times.
However, once you’re in, you’re in. I dont care if you won 100 games and I squeaked in as the wild card. Playoff baseball is a completely different game where anyone can take it all.