Tribe Weekend Recap: Strange Days in Wahooland
August 1, 2011Coming to Terms with the Ubaldo Jimenez Trade
August 1, 2011Editor’s note: As promised, we will have plenty to talk about today regarding all things Ubaldo. Consider this piece the first of a two-part series discussing the pros and cons of the deal. Kirk, as you may have seen on Twitter, will be taking the cons. Enjoy.
With Saturday night’s deal for Ubaldo Jimenez, Tribe general manager Chris Antonetti has hitched his job security to the former Colorado starter. Come October 2013, if the Indians have not gone deep into the playoffs with Ubaldo Jimenez leading the charge as an ace, Chris Antonetti stands a good chance of being out of a job. Sure, that’s a long way away, and maybe I’m being a little dramatic, but if Drew Pomeranz and Alex White become top of the rotation options for the Rockies and Ubaldo battles the drop in velocity on his fastball and pitches inconsistently, it could go down as the trade that unnecessarily shrunk the Indians’ window of opportunity.
I’m going to come right out and say it: I’m against this trade for many reasons. It’s primarily about who we gave up, not what we got in return. I truly believe Drew Pomeranz is going to be a left-handed ace for years to come, the type of guy the Indians will regret not holding onto. With Alex White, I can at least understand dealing him while his stock is high and before his finger injury becomes more of an issue. White will not be an ace in my estimation, and if things don’t work out, he may indeed have to move to the bullpen. White was expendable, permissable to be packaged with other positions of depth within the Tribe farm system. Pomeranz was not; left-handed power-throwing ace-potential pitchers do not grow on trees. You don’t acquire them via trade, you don’t sign them as free agents – not in our small market, anyway. You draft them, you develop them, and you hold onto them for as long as you can.
Antonetti said yesterday that Jimenez was the only trade they considered including Pomeranz and White. That surprises me a bit. That’s a lot of confidence in Ubaldo. Me? I would have felt a lot better about trading Pomeranz and White for a right-handed bat under team control for two or three years. Yes, I guess that means Hunter Pence, although I didn’t have tunnel vision on him. Again, I would’ve held onto Pomeranz and White. Instead of addressing an organizational weakness from top to bottom, we traded from a position of strength and got that strength back. People seem to be wowed by the rotation of Jimenez, Masterson, Tomlin, Carrasco, and Carmona for the next two and a half years. It’s certainly impressive. I do, however, think the rotation of Masterson, Tomlin, Carrasco, White, and Pomeranz would’ve been just as good, if not better, given time.
Let’s talk about Ubaldo for a moment. The 27-year-old right-hander has won 12, 15, and 19 games in his past three seasons (six this year). Before this season’s ERA of 4.46, his earned run average had decreased the past four seasons (4.28 to 3.99 to 3.47 to 2.88). This season, he has struggled with walks and maintaining velocity on his fastball, which sits at 93-94 now instead of the 96-97 it used to. He’s also dealt with a series of minor injuries this season. All of it has played a role in his struggles and Colorado’s poor play. The Indians are hoping that taking him out of Coors Field for half of his games is going to boost his statistics and help him return to last season’s form. Overall, I see no reason he can’t. I also realize his contract is a bargain financially the next two seasons (just under $10 million total), and that cannot be overstated.
The hardest thing to swallow for me is the idea that the Indians have shifted their organizational philosophy in a few short months, undoubtedly influenced by the team’s hot start this season. I had believed all along that 2012 was the first year the Indians would be a legitimate division and pennant contender. I still do, have you *seen* the offense lately? Now, putting a bookend on that window at 2013, that’s two legitimate shots at going for it. After that, Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Hafner, Shin-Soo Choo, Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, and now Ubaldo Jimenez will be free agents. The next year, Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson, and Chris Perez are free agents. Without Pomeranz and White, the next wave seems suddenly much thinner. Sure, we have Tomlin, Carrasco, Chisenhall, Kipnis, Brantley, LaPorta, and Santana long term, but that core seems a lot more potent with the two dealt pitchers. There’s some finality in it. Two (maybe three) shots at it, then another rebuild. That’s what’s got me down at the moment.
I can’t shake the feeling that this feels like going to the MLB Coinstar machine, taking your mountain of change, and getting back 90 cents on the dollar. All because you were impatient and didn’t want to put in the effort to roll the change and take it to the bank yourself.
Teams do this all the time, trading prospects for proven commodities. Normally, it’s large market teams though, who grow prospects for this purpose and this purpose alone. The Clevelands, Minnesotas, Kansas Citys, Tampa Bays, and Pittsburghs cannot afford to operate like this long term, or they’ll be irrelevant. They must spend more money on signing draft picks, paying scouts, exploring international avenues, all in the hope that they can cultivate talent and duct tape enough of it together at the same time to compete in a 2-3 year window, maybe 4-5 if lucky. That’s the reality in this broken system that is Major League Baseball; it’s a race against time for small and mid-market teams. Teams like the Indians fatten up their prize hogs as best they can, hoping they can win blue ribbons and best in shows for a few years, but they know the end result. The end result is the New Yorks, the Bostons, the Chicagos, and the Los Angeleses slaughtering their calf and feasting thanks to the toil of the small market.
Another valid point from those who cannot believe I’m so upset by this deal is that those who constantly rip the Indians for not being buyers have no leg to stand on here. While true that it’s quite unheard of and welcomed in one respect for the Tribe to be willing to acquire major-league talent, it cannot stop here. No, they should have went out and acquired a right-handed bat to supplement this deal (they still may, after all). Wait for Sizemore and Choo to return, and it’ll likely be too late for this season. This upcoming roadtrip may seal the team’s fate. If you’re going all in until 2013, give 2011 a legitimate shot. Don’t test the water with a toe, cannonball right into the deep end!
The success of the next two and a half seasons will not only rest on Antonetti’s shoulders, but with the Dolans’ pocketbook. Making a trade like this signals competing and expanding the payroll, something the Dolans promised us fans they would do when this team is ready. We’ll never go out and grab the biggest name on the market, but we need to be active in free agency this offseason. Because let’s face it, there’s almost nobody now in the Tribe’s minor league system that is going to be a part of this current push through 2013. What you see is what you get. I like what we have, but it HAS to get better… now.
Okay, with all that negativity, I want to end on a positive note. I like being optimistic. I feel going through life being cynical is no way to live. I like to buy into the philosophy of the teams that I follow. I think there’s a lot to be said for fan overreaction and Monday morning quarterbacking. I’m guilty of both, perhaps in this article alone. But, overall, I conclude with this. Ubaldo Jimenez is here as a Cleveland Indian for two and a half seasons. He’s flashed brilliance and the ability to beat any arm in either league. He’s got good stuff, he’s a durable innings-eater, and he seems to have a great personality. I’m going to get behind him and pull for him to do what I think is a stretch, to lead the Indians into the postseason this year. If he can and something special happens, Ubaldo’s a hero, Antonetti’s a God, and I deserve to be in the weekend editor poorhouse. I like being wrong when I take the negative side of something. I hope I am here.
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(Photo: Chuck Crow / The Plain Dealer)
35 Comments
Great article. Shapiro only made the playoffs once and he got promoted to President, so I’m sure Antonetti has at least 10 years of job security.
If the Dolans don’t upgrade the team in free agency in the offseason, this trade makes no sense because they are clearly playing to win in ’11-13.
Ubaldo is proven. White and Pomeranz are not.
The chances of both White and Pomeranz turning into perennial studs are astronomical. Speaking strictly mathematically, the odds are that one of them will turn out to be a journeyman at best.
Ubaldo can win big now, while the others might win big someday, but then again they might not.
Let’s be in it to win it, not develop it.
This analisys is right on the money. Except for one point. The prospects we got for CC and Cliff Lee do not come close to expectations for what we thought we were getting. The term prospect is just that, they are prospects. Ubalso could be a legit game changer in a game that did not need changing. The game that needs changing for the Tribe is hitting and this did not address that need at all.
Boomhauer – you are right on with that observation. If we don’t follow this move up with a couple of big time bats this offseason, we might as well have not made the trade. This move is only the first half of the equation. Antonetti did his part…now it’s your turn, Mr. Dolan…
Another thing to consider about Pomeranz, he still has to develop a 3rd pitch from what Ive read. Right now hes strictly fastball and curve and still working on his other pitches. Also, his velocity is very good, but not overwhelming. Ive read that he tops out around 95 but is usually around 92-94. Hes a very intriguing prospect, but he is far from a sure thing. As somebody else pointed out yesterday, Adam Miller was once “untouchable” and now hes a AA reliever.
This trade is a big gamble, but I like the change in philosophy from the front office. I like that we’ll have a rotation capable of getting us to the postseason and making a run. If not this year than 2012 and 13.
Well written article. You addressed my concerns perfectly.
Remember, we held onto Sowers and Laffey forever and ever when we could have had a lot for one of them…and look what we got in the end.
1.) The sides of the MLB highway are littered with big-armed future Cy Youngs that never get there.
2.) Everyone worried about Ubaldo’s loss of velocity should take a look at the scout sheets on Pomeranz’s time at Ole Miss.
3.) Ubaldo’s FIP has been consistent throughout his career. Wins are garbage. ERA is fickle.
4.) Have we really changed our organizational philosophy? I keep hearing this, but I don’t see it. We’re still acquiring young talent. We haven’t signed any post-arb players to large, long contracts.
This team has never really been about acquiring talent through the draft. Maybe we should, but that inability never stopped us before. Our best success has been in stealing players with a few years of minor/major experience (Choo, Cabrera for example). Now, we’re doing the same thing, but instead of trading old vets, we’re trading prospects.
5.) There will be another Pomeranz soon enough. Next draft, I’m sure we’ll find some new sure-fired cannon armed youth who will be ready for us in ’14/’15 and beyond.
When I say change in philosophy, I mean that we are (apparently) no longer hoarding prospects and hoping they pan out. And by pan out I mean become superstars. Even in the glory days of the 90s we werent willing to part with guys like Brian Giles and Jaret Wright in potential deals for guys like Schilling and Randy Johnson. The organization is now willing to risk dealing prospects in order to bring in proven big league talent. Otherwise, yes the addition of Ubaldo fits with their young and affordable talent philosophy.
Look at all of our first round picks over the past 10 years. Jeremy Guthrie is our only first rounder to have any sustained success in the big leagues, and its been moderate success at best. Trevor Crowe, Jeremy Sowers, Michael Aubrey, Adam Miller. Does anybody remember Dan Denham? Neither do I. We took him with the 17th pick in 2001 and he never made it to the big leagues.
Its always risky dealing prospects but youre better off placing your bets on proven talent if you want to win championships.
There was a great editorial in the Columbus Dispatch yesterday remembering the time with the Clippers of the great Hideki Irabu. The guy that was “The Japanese Nolan Ryan”. Or, how about Dice-K? My point is that hype and expectations are just that: hype and expectations. They can create some serious pressure, and some guys just never make it.
I don’t disagree with Kirk’s premise, mind you. I said in the podcast on Friday that I would have a hard time letting go of Pomeranz in this trade were I in Antonetti’s shoes. It’s just important to remember that sometimes getting a known commodity is worth getting rid of an expected commodity.
Finally, the question worth asking is: Kirk is probably right in that we’ve basically got two or three shots at a ring. And, if they win one, will it have been worth it? Or will we be mad that we don’t have Pomeranz and White for the future? That’s the crux of the issue. If Antonetti thinks we can win a ring in one of those years, then he has to make the move. Time will tell.
@9 – I agree. I guess it’s how we’re defining philosophy.
My point is that, while the tactics to get there may have changed, the basic strategy on how to build a club (i.e. youth, prospects, avoid long term contracts, etc.) remains the same. We’re still closer to the Rays than the Phillies.
“Chris Antonetti has hitched his job security to the former Colorado starter.”
I saw Mark Shapiro on an Indians broadcast last week and he said any trade the Indians make needed to be approved by him. This trade was a front office, team decision, and not totally Chris’s responsibility.
That being said I love the trade. MLB teams win with good pitching and they have plenty now.
“Finally, the question worth asking is: Kirk is probably right in that we’ve basically got two or three shots at a ring. And, if they win one, will it have been worth it?”
Um…yes. Hell yes.
“Me? I would have felt a lot better about trading Pomeranz and White for a right-handed bat under team control for two or three years.”
wow. just wow.
the only bat I would have given that up for would have been a legit 35hr, 120rbi buy…
an ace is an ace…Jimenez has 4 pitches…maybe they didnt use him well in Colorado…maybe he got too content…maybe he needs a change of scenery like everyone else says to get back on it…hes got no-hitter type stuff…its not just a sinker….or just a fastball….Pomeranz looked overmatched at the minor league allstar game…White looked ok when here, but more of a Mike Maddux than a Greg Maddux…
do i like giving them both up? no. but, i like Jimenez more than those two because you just dont know…with Jimenez, you do know what he brings…pitchers are much easier to sling around when theyre 19yrs old and have a howitzer for an arm…but its harder to know that they will stay that way long term…
teams cant and wont trade hitters unless theyre 25 games back…you cant trade with no one willing to listen…Pence is not something that would seem to me to be a long term investment…im just not entirely too impressed with him…a career .290 hitter with 25 hrs max so far? I think id rather have a Paul Konerko or a Vlad or someone like that instead of a fringe sorta powerful, sorta high average, sorta fast (not a lot of SBs – max 18sb in a season) guy that has shown glimpses of being pretty good, but not great…Grady was better than him when healthy…i just dont see it…id rather have brantley, choo, and sizemore in the OF than Pence…is Sizemore a risk? sure. but if hes healthy, id take sizemore over pence…and i wouldnt give up 2 top pitching prospects for an OF that doesnt overwhelm me…
Jimenez’s stuff does…we gave up a lot in the future potentially to win this year or next…isnt that what most Indians fans wanted? People were all up in arms that we didnt go get anyone….now we did, and people complain??? makes no sense to me…
oh well..
GO TRIBE!!!
I feel uncomfortable with this trade for the reason addressed in the headline: shortening the window of contention.
One other thing to consider: there are no right-handed OF/1B bats in the system so it seems like we should dish out some cash in free agency. But who would that bat be? Take away Albert Pujols (obviously not an option) and who is left?
@DK
You misunderstand me. My first choice would have been to hold onto Pom/White, but my next option if I had to deal them would’ve been for a bat, given our lack of talent in the minors.
We made Justin Masterson into a legit #2, what can we do with Ubaldo Jimenez? if the arm doesn’t explode, we’re set.
@DK- I agree that Pence, while good, was somewhat over rated. That’s what happens when you’re constantly being compared to Frenchy and the rest of the trade deadline crew.
The other thing about getting Pence was that, while under control for two years, he wasn’t under contract. He’s making $7M this year so my guesstimation puts him at over $20M for the remaining two. So I’m sure that was a major reason that White/Pomeranz weren’t both offered in that deal.
I only have one more logical question… Will the Indians sell an “Ubaldo” license plate?
we are used to trading away top flight pitchers (Colon, CC, Lee) or ‘not’ making the trade for one (Wright for Pedro). I was hesitant when I first heard the deal but we might as well see what it’s like to be the ones making the trade for a top flight pitcher.
and yes, I still think he is one.
Home (8 starts): 5.55 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 9 HR .310 OP BA
Away (7 starts) : 3.38 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1 HR, .184 OP BA
Did you honestly say you would have rather traded Pomeranz/White for Pence than for Jimenez? Good god.
You don’t take a FAR lessor player because of need. The trade wasn’t just about this year. The offense won’t be horrid next year (Chiz, Kipnis, Santana, Lapora and Brantley will all be improved. Some significantly so, others marginally). Plus Choo will be healthy (and hopefully back to normal) and there is a chance Sizemore will be healthy. To trade for an above average RF instead of a borderline ace starter because this years team needs offense more than pitching is downright insane. And by the way, that above average RF will make FAR more money than the borderline ace. Insanity.
@21 – There’s also a lot of smart baseball people noting that Pence wasn’t even the best Astro outfielder traded this week.
@NJ – yeah, Schoenfield had an article on it. I’d still argue that Pence was better (he was more feared, he is underrated in the field, and he was the leader of the team), but Bourn was no slouch and definitely fits Atlanta better than Pence would have.
It would have been nice to get Hunter Pence, but hes not a guy worth giving up 3 or 4 prospects for. I can only go by the numbers because I havent really seen him play a whole lot, but Pence strikes me as the classic big fish in a little pond. He looked like a star because he played for the Astros, if he were wearing pinstripes he would be just another good player.
I would consider moving 3 or 4 prospects for a guy like Matt Kemp, a “franchise” type player. But not Hunter Pence.
I would sacrifice body parts for Matt Kemp.
I’m sure we’ll sign him this off season.
Matt Kemp- Now there is a guy who you can say “I’d rather trade White and Pomeranz for than Jimenez” without being borderline insane.
@23- What are you basing your descriptions of Pence on? Who was he more “feared” by, and how is that “skill” valuable to a team? Who and how was his defense underrated by (it actually seems to be massively overrated, especially by Tribe fans who seem to think it was very good). And what are you basing him being the “leader” of the team on? Not trying to call you out, but I have been seeing a lot of Tribe fans give similar reasons to justify Pence’s value, and I’m curious what they actually mean by it and how it is useful.
@Josh – I live in Austin, TX so I’m basing my descriptions on going to (a couple games) and seeing far too many Houston Astro games.
I have mostly seen that Pence is being called a minus defender, where I would argue he is slightly above average. Bourn called him off a ton (that guy covers a ton of ground), but he hustled well, made good reads, and his throws were online. He doesn’t have a cannon like an Alex Gordon (or Choo), but he has an above average arm.
as for being feared, it is because he is a power hitter. while pitchers will almost always try to get the out on Bourn, they will pitch around or walk Pence much more readily. he’s not the traditional HR guy (he has 25 HRs for 3 straight years and may not get there this year), but he is a doubles-machine (especially this year where he’s on pace for 40+). his OPS+ is 132 this year, which is right in line with Choo the past couple of seasons. Bourn’s OPS+ is 116 and is the first time in his 5 MLB seasons that it’s been over 100.
and for being the leader of the team. he’s the ‘face of the franchise’ so to speak. he’s the guy who represents the team to the media, he’s the guy they use the most to sell tickets, and he’s the guy who they at least show more helping out the youngsters, rallying the dugout during the late innings (he’s definitely an energy type of guy), etc. it could be a media portrayal.
all that said, I was pushing for us to trade for Bourn at the deadline because I thought the Pence deal would be too high and I do like Bourn.
For all the quality comments, thank you, guys.
But for crying out loud, Josh, you would have thought I personally offended you with the tone you’re taking. Troll strong, Josh, it makes you a big man. It really does.
If you don’t think Pence is worth Pom and White, that’s fine (again, I DO NOT either), if you had actually read the words I wrote. I was saying I would have been more willing to give up our top pitching prospects (again, a position of strength and depth) to help our lack of power, quality outfield bats throughout the system. NOT saying it had to be Pence. NOT saying I would make that same trade. For White and other quality parts, sure. I would not include Pomeranz.
I’m warming up to the idea of Ubaldo, but if you gave me the power to reverse this trade, I still would.
Not sold on the trade at all, for the reasons Kirk mentions…particularly UJ’s arm. Pitchers just don’t lose that kind of velocity in one year unless something’s wrong. Word is that the Yankees wanted an MRI on him, which effectively killed the deal with COL said no. That tells me they know something.
Bottom line: I’m not convinced UJ will even last through his contract without some major arm issues. If that’s the case, this deal will crush not only the ‘window’ they’ve made for themselves, but now they’ve also dealt the one pitcher that was going to be at least a solid left handed starter, if not a dominant one.
*WHEN COL said no*…my bad…
@kirk, gotta love when the author of an article throws out the troll line for strongly disagreeing with him. If calling someone out for a clueless (yes, this is my opinion, I suppose it is not a fact) statement makes me a troll, then I guess I will accept that. But before you accuse me of not reading, perhaps you should read a lil better. I never said you thought Pence was worth White/Pom, I said you would rather trade them for him than Ubaldo, which you word for word did. And which is borderline insane. I’m sure you are an intelligent person and all that, but saying you would rather have pence is like saying you would rather the cavs have an average center than Chris Paul cause it fits a bigger need. It’s insane and unbelievably short sighted. But I guess that just makes me a troll. And by the way, I’m not sold on this trade, I think its a gigantic risk. And I apologize for this huge paragraph and any spelling gram errors, I’m on my phone.
Josh, I’m sorry if you don’t understand how things don’t always come out 100% like you have them in your head when you write a 1400 word article addressing multiple points.
Pence is not some average center, Ubaldo is not Chris Paul, and this is baseball. Ubaldo probably is a more valuable player overall, but I think Pence would make an overall bigger impact on the current makeup of the Indians. That’s just me. But, what do I know? I’m insane!
Maybe you can send me your grammatically sound article about the Ubaldo trade and I can nitpick it and call you a.) downright insane, b.) borderline insane, c.)clueless, d.) insane, and e.) unbelievably short-sighted.
Send me your address. I’ll send you a Thesaurus. Insane is a tad overused.
One more thing, Josh. I didn’t call you a troll because you disagreed with my point. There were several who did. They didn’t resort to an attacking tone, though.
I value and encourage alternate viewpoints from my own. That’s what makes this site fun. When you can’t get your point out without first burning the first guy’s house down, though, you need to work on your communication skills.
Losing velocity on a fast ball isn’t always an issue. Ask Tim Lincecum. If it still has movement and location, no problem. I think Ubaldo’s K/BB/HR rates suggest this it might not be a big deal (especially considering the zip he still has on his fast ball).
Something to be concerned about? Yeah. Panic? No, not really.
Kirk,
I’ll sum up my thoughts on this disagreement with the following: Pence is older than Ubaldo. Pence will cost FAR more than Ubaldo the next two years. Pence is less skilled at his position than Ubaldo is at his. Pence plays a FAR less valuable position than Ubaldo. Yes, I think saying you would rather trade our two best prospects for him than Ubaldo just because offense is currently a bigger need than pitching is clueless/insane/unbelievably short sighted. But please note, I’m not calling YOU these things, just this particular thought you have (this reminds me of my third grade teacher who used to tell us it wasn’t us kids she hated, it was our behavior, but I digress).
I’m sorry you are taking my comments personally. I enjoy this site. I haven’t been reading long enough to know who has wrote what, but I’m sure you have wrote articles that I have enjoyed. But in this particular case, I think you are way overreacting or not thinking clearly. If you want me to write you my own article on why this is so you can “attack” me back, give me your email and I’ll be glad to. Though I tend to get a little passionate about this stuff, so you better set aside enough time to read it. As for the offer of a thesauras, I’m an accountant, no one ever accused us of having a way with words.
My email is joshbauerle@gmail.com, feel free to email me to continue this discussion so we aren’t bothering everyone else in the process, and I’ll get that rebuttle article over to ya 😉