Thome returns to Minnesota, his late homer is the difference maker
September 17, 2011While We’re Waiting…Tribe Prospects, Browns Keys, NBA Negotiations
September 18, 2011I’ve been accused of being pretty negative lately regarding the Indians. Maybe I have gone a little bit overboard, but can you blame me? Since July 20th when the Tribe last had a piece of the AL Central Crag, the Indians have won about a third of their games. While I knew 30-15 was just too good to be true to hold up the rest of the season, I was hoping the Tribe could play .500 ball from that point on, which would have had them on track for 88-74 or 89-73, which I believed at the time would have been enough to narrowly win the division. A 22-5 run later by the Tigers, and I was proven wrong. Nevertheless, I think it’s easy to forget some of the strides that this young Tribe bunch truly made when they were expected to jockey with the Royals for fourth place rather than with the White Sox for second after spending months in first place. This is an attempt to recall some of those things.
I think the first thing to recognize is to see how deeply and repetitively the injury bug has burrowed into this Tribe team, rendering it a shell of itself. Here is a little quick reference list of how many games (my rough math) key members of the Tribe have missed due to injury.
Grady Sizemore – 71 games
Travis Hafner – 48 games
Shin-Soo Choo – 74 games (including games missed the rest of the season)
Michael Brantley – 41 games (including games missed the rest of the season)
Jack Hannahan – 11 games (and counting)
Jason Kipnis – 22 games
Josh Tomlin – roughly 4 starts (could be more depending on if/when he returns this season)
Carlos Carrasco – roughly 11 starts, plus all of next season, of course
Four key members of the lineup missing 40+ games? That would send pretty much anyone into a tailspin. Just ask the Minnesota Twins, who have been crippled just as much as Cleveland this season. As for the starting rotation, Carrasco was struggling when he got hurt, but I would still rather have him than David Huff right now. In regards to Tomlin, he was the mark of consistency all season long, and losing who was their best starter during that 30-15 start was a blow the Tribe could not sustain.
Look at the Detroit Tigers, who have been incredibly lucky in regards to time players have spent on the DL. Victor Martinez had a stint on the DL where he missed 13 games, and Brennan Boesch is done for the season, which ended a month early for him. Al Albuquerque, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez all spent extended stints on the DL too, but they are not nearly as crucial as the contributors the Tribe lost. Other than that, their key guys have stayed remarkably healthy. That cannot be overlooked when evaluating how we stack up against the Tigers on even footing next season.
Now, let’s get into what DID go right for the Tribe this season. Justin Masterson emerged as a front end of the rotation pitcher after battling with maintaining consistency in years past. He got much more effective against left-handed hitters, and his attitude in the face of getting nothing short of a royal screw-job in run support this season has been admirable. Josh Tomlin went from a fringe rotation pitcher to a guy that I expect to slot in very nicely as the third starter next season behind Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez. As for Ubaldo, let’s hope his recent strides as well as an offseason of certainty and coaching from the Tribe staff allows him to have an All-Star type bounceback year. The four and five starters are up in the air, but I think Jeanmar Gomez holds down one of those slots. Then, I’d prefer to see a free agent acquisition over David Huff, but I know others would much rather see the young lefty. And yes, I’m throwing Fausto Carmona out like I would rotten milk.
We know bullpens are always up and down from year to year, but I think even if a couple of members of the Bullpen Mafia take steps back next year, the Tribe is deep and talented enough to weather it. Vinnie Pestano has been the Rookie of the Year, for the Tribe at least. I think in the right situation, “No Fear” could even succeed as a closer. I think all of us hope Chris Perez can be more consistent next season and return to his dominance at the end of the 2010 campaign. Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez, and Joe Smith are all coming off strong seasons as well, depending on which of them the Tribe brings back. The organization is absolutely stacked with guys ready to step in from both sides too, including Nick Hagadone, Josh Judy, Zach Putnam, and Chen Lee.
Offensively, the way this team is structured, they absolutely NEED Shin-Soo Choo to return to the middle of the order and be that 25-25 threat that he is more than capable of being. Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana have both had breakout seasons, and adding Choo back to the middle of the order makes it more than respectable. Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall have both shown flashes of greatness in the second half of this season. You never know what you have in Travis Hafner, but when he’s been healthy, he’s been effective a large amount of that time. There may not be a lot of positional depth in the minor leagues, but other than center field (sorry, Grady, I’d send you on the first plane out of town) and first base, I like the everyday options.
So, what CAN the Tribe do this offseason? With the tight payroll already increasing, they can and should cut ties with both Fausto Carmona and Grady Sizemore. That would save the team around $15 million dollars, which they could use in the free agent market on good, not All-Star, options at first base, corner outfield (more power, and you can move Brantley to center), and possibly a fourth or fifth starter with Carrasco out next year.
With the Ubaldo trade, Chris Antonetti and the organization have signaled that their window of contention is right now, the next two years. If they don’t go out and make moderate additions in the free agent market, not only are they giving their fans mixed signals, but they are absolutely putting their jobs in jeopardy. Most of the talent is right here right now, and with another year of maturity, a little more luck health-wise, and some small additions via free agency, I fully expect the Tribe to come out on top next season in what should be a tight AL Central race.
5 Comments
I love the piece of the crag reference.
A healthy and productive Choo next season has gotta be good for an extra 4-5 wins. Imagine a 2-3-4 of Kipnis, Choo and Santana for an entire season. Im still hopeful for next season even though the second half has been a major buzzkill.
Nice piece, Kirk. Couldn’t agree more. I rode the bandwagon as long as I could this season, and will be all-in for next. So long as we add just a couple pieces in the off-season, and IF we can stay healthy, I absolutely think we will be contending for the Central next season. Here’s hoping…
Waiting for next year, eh?
sad that this post got buried on a Saturday. it deserves the full weekday viewing/commenting.
as NJ/jimkanicki and others have been saying, 2012 has nearly as many ? as we had with these players in 2011. not much got answered this season.
questions answered:
Can Masterson develop into a top-of-rotation starter? Yes.
Is Kipnis really our 2B of the future? Yes.
Is Asdrubel the best SS in the AL? Yes.
Can Grady stay healthy? No.
Can Pronk stay healthy? No.
Can Fausto finally be consistent (one way or the other)? No.
Can we rely on Carrasco in 2012? Sadly, we wouldn’t have known the answer other than he will miss 2012 with injury. So, no.
questions remaining:
1. Is Tomlin better than his peripherals or will he regress? I think he is, but he did start showing signs of regression. He is a mid-to-lower rotation guy most likley.
2. On the opposite end, can Ubaldo be the top of the line rotation starter that his velocity and peripherals suggest? Of course it is possible, but he did not gain much confidence with the way he pitched his first few starts here.
3. After Masterson/Ubaldo/Tomlin, who will fill out our pitching staff? I would nominate Jeanmar Gomez to get a shot and I sadly don’t think we are getting anything better than innings-eater Carmona for his 2012 salary. But, neither of those are sure-things and huge ? going into the offseason.
4. Has Grady played his last game in an Indians uniform? I think it’s pretty obvious we should cut him. But, will we try to sign him back cheaper? Will we find a corner OF with his salary savings? The FA list is pretty grim this offseason.
5. Can Matt LaPorta have an Alex Gordon ‘light turning on’ offseason? Most likely no. But, I don’t think we’ll have the budget to sign both a corner OF and a 1B and a 4th/5th starter. So, he may get one more year of reprieve to try to turn his top10 draft talent into actual MLB success.
6. Jack Hannahan vs. Lonnie Chisenhall – who will win? Obviously, Lonnie is the heavy favorite. But Jack sure had his moments this season and Lonnie did not look ready for most of the summer. So, longterm, Lonnie has the inside track, but Jack might fight himself into a platoon position. Or, can we answer #5 by switching Mr. Chisenhall to 1B and giving Jack the 3B job?
7. Who is Carlos Santana? So far, he’s an incredibly streaky hitter who eats up bad pitching and strikes out against good pitching. Not a bad place to be for a young catcher if he could, you know stop balls in the dirt, throw out runners, and call good games for pitchers. Those are things that Marson does extremely well (but gives the lineup a near automatic out). Carlos is another possibility to answer question #5, but we really want him to stay at C where his value lies.
8. What the heck happened to Choo? He was injured much of the year and when he wasn’t he was a terrible player. He took terrible routes to flyballs, he was terrible at the plate, and he was basically nothing like the 5-tool player we have seen the 3 seasons before this one. All logic suggests that this is merely a blip and he’ll return, but it was one heck of a blip.
9. What about Brantley? Lost in this season was how he sort of fell off a cliff as the season went along and never had a chance at righting himself because he got injured. I want to believe he is apart of our future (and undoubtedly will be for 2012), but he instilled more confidence in people than his play may have merited.
10. Who plays CF (or LF if Brantly is in CF)? Zeke showed flashes, Grady might get resigned, we might sign a FA, or we might give Head a chance? That last spot is completely up for grabs at the moment.
So, positions “settled” for 2012:
SS (Asdrubel)
2B (Kipnis)
2 OF spots (Brantley, Choo)
SP1 (Masterson)
SP2 (Ubaldo)
SP3 (Tomlin)