April 19, 2014

In An Ideal World Sizemore’s Option Wouldn’t Be a Question

First of all, please don’t accuse me of bashing the Dolan family.  That isn’t what this post is about.  They deserve some of the blame for their spending habits, but ultimately they are playing in an environment that has all sorts of factors working outside of their control as well.  Over poker last night I was talking to my friends about what this team would be like if Dick Jacobs had never sold it.  The payrolls might not really be that different.  It is something worth thinking about.  The point of all this is that the Indians and Indians fans shouldn’t really have to think twice about picking up a $9 million option on a player like Grady Sizemore in a year where the team is clearly hoping to challenge for the division.

Obviously there are caveats as Jon pointed out yesterday.  There are just some things we can’t know.  For example, if Indians team doctors are absolutely convinced that the Indians will not be able to get a healthy performance from Sizemore, that should supersede my argument.  You and I can’t possibly know that kind of information well enough to make an educated guess.  Instead, let’s try to put the $9 million in perspective.

I decided to look at the top 35 position players in baseball in terms of their WAR (Wins Above Replacement.)  We can probably argue all day and night whether this is the right metric, but it is the one I decided to use.  I took these top 35 players and I looked at what they made in 2011 and then what they are expected to make in 2012.  That gave me an average salary in the top 35 of $5.4 million.  That number didn’t seem very accurate for comparing to Grady Sizemore because it includes players who are arbitration eligible.  These guys aren’t very comparable to Grady Sizemore because they aren’t available on the free agent market, so they wouldn’t really be eligible “replacements” for a guy like Sizemore without a trade of some kind.

So, I eliminated all the guys who are arbitration eligible and I divided each player’s salary by their WAR rating to give them a $ / WAR value.   Guys like Jacoby Ellsbury who made $2.4 million in 2011 had a $ / WAR of $0.333.  For reference, Asdrubal Cabrera’s $ / WAR was $0.546 million and Carlos Santana’s was $0.107 million per point.  When you eliminate guys like that, the average salary almost doubles to $10 million.    David Ortiz was pretty expensive for his production as he costs about $3.3 million per point.  Only Paul Konerko was more expensive by about $40,000.  The average $ / WAR among these veterans is $2.07 million which is the number I will use for Grady Sizemore.

So, the multi-million dollar question is, what kind of production will Grady Sizemore deliver?  Obviously nobody knows this for sure.  Still, if you and the doctors make the decision to bring him back, you will obviously think that Sizemore is going to approximate something he did in the past.  At his most productive, Sizemore had a WAR of 7.3 in 2006.  His Average WAR has been 3.55.   If you multiply $2.07 million times Sizemore’s high of 7.3 it means that he would be worth just north of $15 million.  If he scored his average of 3.55 he would be worth $7.3 million. This year when Sizemore had only 295 at-bats his WAR was 0.5 meaning his performance was only worth about $1 million.

What do all these numbers mean to me?  It means that if the Indians are a true playoff contender this season and if they think there is any reason to think that Sizemore can be healthy and play for the Indians this year that they should be willing to spend the $9 million on him.  This game and this team have conditioned fans into thinking like general managers with strict budgets.  Sometimes I resign myself to it, but right now as I’m watching two teams in the $90 million category of payrolls compete in the World Series, I just can’t.  The Indians shouldn’t choose between spending $9 million for one more year with Grady Sizemore and signing some kind of third tier free agent outfielder to add to the roster.

The Indians have Grady Sizemore under control for $9 million.   Nick Swisher made $9 million dollars from the Yankees this season and he has a team option for $10.25 million.   When Hoynes wrote about this, his free agent list included Coco Crisp, Fukudome, Jason Kubel, Carlos Pena, Wilson Betemit and Michael Cuddyer.  The only guy I’d like from that list for sure is Cuddyer and he made $10.5 million and will surely make more next year.  So what is the biggest risk?  The Indians risking not being outbid on every desirable free agent or Grady Sizemore’s health in 2012?

I am not asking them to sign Prince Fielder or bid on C.C. Sabathia should he opt out of his New York deal.  I am merely saying that after a year with just under $50 million in salary the Indians should be willing to do their normal increases (to a reported $70 million), and free agent signings without letting Sizemore’s one-year $9 million option be a “tough choice.”  For an important year of baseball, the Indians shouldn’t be waffling over $70 million in payroll and $79 million.  It is a reasonable request even considering the market and the sport.

  • mgbode

    you can’t assume Grady will get back to his peak value. i’d argue it’s difficult to even assume that Grady can get back to his average value because of his injuries.

    if we keep Grady, then I will hope like heck he can kick this injury bug. but, I am not counting on it. both knees hurt, groin hurt multiple times, left elbow injury thrown in for good measure.

    we can hope for one more magic year from Grady, but we sure cannot count on it and I think exercising his option is doing just that. IMO of course.

  • stin4u

    I forgo the statistics and look at the big picture. That picture says he just can’t stay on the field. During the course of the season he’s going to get hurt and he’s bound to miss significant playing time. What’s the phrase…”fool me once…fool me twice”, I just can’t pull the trigger on this one.

  • Ghost To Most

    If we had a suitable replacement lined up to play centerfield, this would be a no brainer. Decline the option and wish him well.

    But, the alternative of going into 2012 with Zeke Carrera as our everyday centerfielder is just as dicey as banking on Grady to stay healthy. Now of course Zeke could get better with experience, but then again me might not. He was pretty awful in the outfield this season.

    I would say decline the option and work out a trade for Upton. But, I dont think the Rays would sell him cheap AND I dont think the Indians have any real trade chips left to deal at this point.

    Its a tough call on Grady. FWIW this little blurb was posted on SI this morning, they dont cite any but they claim that Sizemore’s agent is drawing a hard line with this option.

    http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/314413-time-for-sizemore-to-go?sct=hp_bf2_a9&eref=sihp

  • Ghost To Most

    Cite any sources*

  • NJ

    But if the Indians are willing to go up $79M, the question still remains if that last $9M is really best spent on Sizemore.

    Bleh. Bad situation all around imo. I also love that it’s microfracture surgery which means we can’t do more than guess on how he’ll recover. All around bad.

  • http://www.whitecollarredneck.com Narm

    The problem with picking up the option is that you still have to find a suitable back-up in the case that he is injured again. So you are spending $9 million on Grady and another $3-4 million for a back-up as insurance.

    At that point, it becomes an extremely expensive idea.

    Plus, it is a one-year option, so if he comes out and plays well, you lose him next year.

    This is one of the hardest choices I’ve seen for this team. I go back and forth every day. I’ve been arguing for them to pick up the option all the way until I got to this comment box. I am sure whichever choice they make will be critiqued for years to come.

  • Ghost To Most

    I agree with NJ, its a bad situation all the way around. There is no easy answer or solution to this problem. Either way, we are taking a considerable risk.

  • Mulekicker3

    I agree 100% that the tribe shouldn’t be worked up over 79 mil vs 70 mil. I just don’t want Sizemore in my outfield anymore. Even if he does stay healthy which we know is a huge risk, he hasn’t produced in years. I just don’t see him capable of producing anywhere near the Sizemore we all fell in love with.

  • Wacman

    By the logic of the article, we would need Sizemore to have an above average season in order to not waste money on him. Considering he’s now 30, 5 years and a bunch of injuries removed from he best season as an Indian, I’d bet that’s not gonna happen. I’m also still not convinced that Zeke is as bad in CF as everyone says. Dollar for dollar, Zeke and his .300 OBP are still a better value.

    Take my opinion with a HUGE grain of salt though, I personally don’t think we’re contending next year. I think 2013 will be the year we make the charge.

  • Olivea08

    Even without Sizemore the Tribe is overloaded with left hand hitters especially in the outfield, plus they strike out way too much. Makes it tough to score in late innings when always facing left handed relievers. The Tigers killed us late in year with all of the lefties in pen. Must acquire a right hand hitting outfielder with either power or speed. No more Trevor Crowe’s that Tribe farm system is loaded with. Since free agent market has few of these options, trade for Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano. The Astros or Cubs will pay most of contract so could end up being a savings over retaining Sizemore. Plus we will not have to give up top prospects for either.