Micro-Analyzing the Armond Smith Pitch
October 3, 2011Two Suspended Buckeyes Could Remain Suspended
October 3, 2011When the 2011 season began for the Cleveland Indians, everyone’s biggest question mark spot was the starting rotation. There were very few sure things when the Wahoos went west to start Spring Training in Goodyear, Arizona. Here was what we knew on March 1st:
- Fausto Carmona would head the rotation.
- Justin Masterson would follow, but many still viewed him as a reliever long term.
- It would take nothing short of a complete collapse in Spring for Carlos Carrasco not to break camp with the Tribe.
- Mitch Talbot was out of options and the organization had a strange fascination with keeping him in the rotation.
- The fifth starter job was going to be a three-way battle between Josh Tomlin, Jeanmar Gomez, and David Huff. Whoever didn’t win the job would go back to Columbus and essentially be the “next men up” in case of injury and/or failure.
- Former #1 pick Alex White was also on the horizon and was charging hard.
So how did things shake out?
Carmona (7-15, 5.25 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) started opening day and by September had the organization scratching their heads at what to do with him. Masterson (12-10, 3.21 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) has turned himself into the ace of the staff. Carrasco (8-9, 4.62 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) showed promise with a solid six start stretch, but then was lost for 12-18 months thanks to Tommy John surgery. Talbot (2-6, 6.64 ERA, 1.85 WHIP) is who we thought he was, was DFA’d, yet inexplicably made a one start return during the final week of the season. Tomlin (12-7, 4.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) became a rock solid, middle of the rotation, strike-thrower who will be in the rotation for years to come. Gomez (5-3, 4.47 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) and Huff (2-6, 4.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) both had their moments. Zach McAllister (0-1, 6.11 ERA, 1.87 WHIP) made himself a factor with a solid AAA season and made four spot starts. White (1-0, 3,60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) took Talbot’s rotation spot, made three solid starts, but a finger injury derailed his season, and he was eventually dealt to Colorado as a part of the Ubaldo Jimenez (4-4, 5.10 ERA, 1.45 ERA) blockbuster deal.
We will get to Ubaldo in a little.
So where do we sit as we look to the 2012 season?
There is no doubt that the opening day starter will be Masterson. He was terrific all season before wearing down in September. He logged a career high in innings (216), wins (12), and strikeouts (158) and deserved better. No pitcher in Wahooland had worse run support than J Mast. When the Tribe bats went into their June/July swoon, Masterson seemed to lose every start 2-1 or 1-0. His stuff, when he is on, is filthy. There were some games that he threw nothing but fastballs and got away with it. The big right-hander turned a lot of people, me included, into big fans of his in 2011. I was one of the ones driving the “Masterson should be a setup man” bus. I’m glad to sit here today and admit I was way off.
Backing up Masterson will be Jimenez, the lightning rod of the Tribe collapse in late August. The Indians brass made the most controversial trade of this year’s deadline, sending their top two pitching, White and fellow #1 pick Drew Pomeranz, along with two other prospects to Colorado for Ubaldo, a tantalizing talent who was struggling while looking for a contract extension from the Rockies. The reports were that both the Yankees and Red Sox, who badly needed another starting pitcher, checked out Ubaldo physically, and they were scared away by what they saw. The Indians doctors gave him a clean bill of health, and expected results right away. Unfortunately, the pre-2010 Ubaldo that we all hoped we’d see did not come around.
Sure, he made a couple of nice starts, struck out a lot of hitters, and occasionally hit 98 on the gun. But his quirky delivery seemed to be inconsistent and under the brightest lights, Jimenez wilted. He started the game that for all intents and purposes was the death knell for the Tribe. Had the Indians won that fateful Sunday in late August, they would have stayed 2.5 games back of the Tigers. Instead, Ubaldo laid a big egg, and the Indians came up one run short in a failed eight-run comeback in Detroit. The two teams went in opposite directions from there. I’m not blaming Ubaldo, but for what the Indians gave up, the return over the last two months was not pretty. The numbers tell the story. He made 11 starts for the Indians and carried an ERA of 5.10. He did strike out 62 in 65.1 innings pitched, but he averaged just under six innings per start. Maybe he wasn’t 100% healthy. Scratch that – I hope he was wasn’t 100% healthy.
If the Indians plan on contending in 2012, the old Ubaldo, the guy with the rep that they traded for, better show up.
SIDE NOTE – I maintain that if White doesn’t tear ligaments in his index finger that he never comes out of the rotation, has a solid rookie season, and the Indians never deal for Jimenez. We will never know for sure.
Behind the top two will be the steady, soft-tossing, crafty righty from Texas. Josh Tomlin has to be at the top of the list of pleasant surprises for this year’s team. He won a job out of Spring with ease and never looked back. Next to Masterson, he was the Indians most consistent starter. The numbers didn’t wow you, but every time he pitched, his team had a chance to win and he rarely made the killer mistake. Tomlin is the kind of pitcher manager Manny Acta loves – he just throws strikes (21 walks in 161.1 IP). He is a fly ball pitcher who gave up a lot of homers (24), but the majority of them were solo shots. JT was shut down in April with some elbow soreness, but will be back strong in 2012, pitching in the middle of the rotation.
The fourth spot may or may not be manned by Carmona. The Indians hold a manageable $7 million option on him for 2012 that they will most likely be picking up, but watching him every five days makes you want to pull your hair out. At times, he looks like the guy who was dominant in 2007, but those starts have become too few and far between. What we saw mostly in 2011 was the five and fly guy who puts runners on base and allows his emotions to get the best of him before imploding with a big inning. Outgoing pitching coach Tim Belcher couldn’t solve the riddle that was Carmona and maybe a new voice will help him harness his abilities. If anything, Carmona is a back of the rotation innings eater; he made 32 starts and logged 188.2 innings. Think of him in the Brad Penny/ Brett Myers/Freddy Garcia mold. You can no longer view him as a top of the rotation guy.
The final spot is where things get dicey. It’s going to be a crapshoot for Chris Antonetti and Acta. Carrasco will be lost for the season with elbow surgery. You can forget about Talbot (the pitching version of Austin Kearns – has nine lives in this organization). White and Pomeranz, the two guys who we were all told were the future of this rotation, are now pitching in the thin air of Colorado. So there are two spots and probably four real in-house contenders.
Gomez was the Indians best starter over the last three weeks of the season. His stuff isn’t going to wow anyone, but he has the knack for working out of jams. The righty split time between Columbus and Cleveland over the past two seasons and seems ready for his real shot. Huff came back to Cleveland and re-invented himself, thanks to some solid coaching from AAA guru Ruben Niebla. He came up to make a spot start in Minnesota and shocked everyone in the Tribe fan base and front office with seven scoreless innings. He followed it up with three more quality starts and the Indians felt as though they may have struck gold with their former first round pick. However, come September, David Huff remembered he was David Huff. My Tribe spies tell me the Indians are really counting on Huff for a big 2012 and that the time for him to put up or shut up is now. With Carrasco out and the White/Pomeranz duo long gone, Huff has to make himself a factor. McAllister and lefty Scott Barnes, who both had solid AAA seasons for the champions in Columbus, should provide depth and will be seen at some time in Cleveland in 2012.
Acta also told the press in one of his post-season media sessions that the Indians will look at the free agent market for rotation depth. But again, we know this will be in the style we have seen in the past with guys like Carl Pavano (good), Kevin Millwood (solid), and Jason Johnson (a horrible idea). Let me be the first to suggest the reclamation project out of San Francisco – Barry Zito. The Tribe could always use a lefty, especially one with a big chip on his shoulder looking to prove he still has it.
One thing is for sure, we will feel much better about the rotation options heading into 2012 than we did in March of this year.
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Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images
11 Comments
What about another lefty from San Fran? Jonathan Sanchez seems perfect as a three or four starter and he’s still pretty young. We could trade for him offering the likes of Raffy Perez and others and then rework his contact for like a two or three year deal.
If you think that without the White injury the Ubaldo trade doesn’t happen, then by definition you must think the trade was primarily about winning this year while the division rivals were sputtering. After all, White was coming back next year, maybe this year.
And if the trade was primarily about jumping through that window while it was unexpectedly wide open, leaving your bag of future goodies behind forever, then … fail. Couple of good starts by Ubaldo don’t help when he imploded in the must games. This was just a foolish low-percentage move given Ubaldo’s issues before he arrived. The Rockies must be as happy as the Angels after getting Nolan Ryan for Joe Foy.
So now Alex White is Nolan Ryan? Or is it Drew Pomeranz?
Not that anyone cares, but Alex White was throwing batting practice for the Rockies. 12 home runs in 36 innings, along with 16 walks and a 1.761 WHIP.
Pomeranz made 3 starts, looked good in 2, got lit up by the lowly Astros in his 3rd. Pomeranz is the wild card here, he could turn out to be something special, he could end up being a setup man. He only has 2 pitches, a 91-94 MPH fastball, and a curveball. He like Ubaldo, also had a mysterious drop in velocity. Happened while at Mississippi State. Its my understanding that he used to consistently throw in the mid 90’s, around 95-96. These days he’s around 93-93 consistenly and occasionally hits 94. Pomeranz has red flags of his own.
White has a Jake Westbrook type ceiling, nice player, but is he going to be a Hall of Fame type pitcher? I doubt it.
Pomeranz is very much still an unknown with some big question marks of his own.
Im not defending Ubaldo, because obviously he didnt pitch well. But people act like the Tribe traded 2 future Hall Of Famers to get him, and like NJ said awhile back this trade could very well turn out to be much ado about nothing. White and Pomeranz could both win 200 games for the Rox, but its more likely that the Tribe traded 2 OK pitchers for another.
Analogy was infamous trades, not HOF credentials. So try these ones instead: Mike Hargrove for Paul Dade, Lofton for Taubensee, Omar for Fermin/Jefferson/cash. That we gave up 2 promising pitchers, not 1, increases the chances it won’t be just a wash of the mediocre. And if it is, it was still a low-percentage risky gamble. Ubaldo would needed to immediately start pitching differently than he had been for it to make sense, and Antonnetti panicked and hoped that he would. That’s the point.
(It’s Drew, btw, if there’s a Ryan it’s Drew. But not sure why White = Westbrook)
YES! I would like to be the first to love your idea about Zito!!! I have been researching him for months. Check out his stats versus the AL Central. Chicago 152 BAA 233 OBP. Detroit 229 BAA 311 OBP. Kansas City 137 BAA 231 OBP. Minnesota 240 BAA 240 OBP.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/4233/teamId/4/barry-zito
I know he has a huge salary, but SF would be happy to pay part to get him off the books or maybe a swap for another high salaried player and some cash would work. My other two guys to look for is BJ Upton who hits the central well and the Tribe brass loves (see deadline rumors) and Logan Morrison. Yea Morrison is a bit outspoken, but he would represent a huge upgrade at 1B (where he played every year until this year when he moved to LF). Yes, he is another LH batter, but he hits lefties well.
Watching Pomeranz start against the Astros as we speak, not sure how accurate the radar gun is/was that day. BUT, he was throwing 88-90 MPH in that game. Im going to watch his other starts and see how he looked in those games.
If you want to argue that hes a Nolan Ryan type of pitcher, then I dont know what to say. He honestly looks more like a young Mark Buerhle, but keep in mind the 89 MPH guys as effective as Buerhle, are quite rare.
Even a lot of White’s biggest supporters agreed that he had a Westbrook type ceiling. Sinkerballer, good stuff, but not overwhelming, etc…
I don’t get the line of reasoning that says trading for Ubaldo meant we were playing just for 2011. The guy is under contract for THREE more seasons!
So yeah, I guess in some way we’re selling our future short, but that’s a future in 2015, a LONG way down the line. And if you believe (like the front office clearly did) that Ubaldo is a talented, legit #1, then getting him puts our window at 2011-2014, not just this one season.
That’s not to defend the trade cause Ubaldo looks like a head case imo.
Hate the deal if you want, but hate it for the right reasons.
Hate it for the right reasons, I agree.
I dont understand, at all, why people make it sound like we gave up a sure thing (or things) to acquire damaged goods. We dont yet know what we gave up and what we acquired. Pomeranz in particular, is still a total mystery. He could be something, he could be nothing.
Ubaldo stunk this year. There is no way around it. But, a lot of pitchers struggle when going from the NL to the AL. The silver lining here, is that there is nothing wrong with his arm. He’s fixable. He consistently threw 95-96 MPH and occasionally hit 97-98. He struck out 62 batters in 65 innings, thats an average of 8.5 strikeouts per 9 innings which is slightly above his career mark of 8.2.
Its not his arm thats the problem, its his command. He walks too many batters, falls behind in the count, struggles to command any pitch besides his fastball. When hes down 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, whatever in the count, batters are going to sit on his fastball and hes going to get killed, like he did in Detroit. Hate to use the old cliche, but hes a thrower and not a pitcher. If he learns how to pitch, he could still be pretty good.
Josh Beckett was awful in his first season with the Sox, 36 homers, 74 walks, 2.14 stikeout to walk ratio. Lots of homers, lots of walks, sounds like Ubaldo.
Im not saying he is or ever will be as good as Beckett, if Ubaldo can find some command he could be a pretty good pitcher for this team. Is he going to win a Cy Young? I doubt it, but can we win 15-18 games for a contender with better command? Yeah, I think he can.
Clearly, Ubaldo is a guy who is going to have to be coached up. What scares me is that his mechanics are so screwy that fixing his problems might just create tha many more, but I’d like to give the Indians brass at least a chance to do it.
Take a look at Ubaldo’s numbers from 2008-2011. His K and BB rates have remained consistent. His HR/9 ballooned this year, but his xFIP has been ridiculously consistent since 09.
Much like the point Jon raised in his Carmona article: ignoring ERA (which is fickle) and looking at the stuff pitchers control, Jimenez has been pretty much the same guy the last couple of years. Yeah, he was a little luckier or better in ’09/’10, but his stats still line up. And what we got in that trade was a guy who posted a 3.5-6.4 WAR each season since ’08. And I’ll take that over two unknowns.
I want absolutely no part of Barry Zito. Pitches in the NL, in a very favorable park, and still stunk up the joint. That has disaster written all over it.
Yeah Zito is still owed about 40 million dollars over the next 2 seasons, with a substantial buyout for 2014. One of the worst contracts ever signed for sure.