While We’re Waiting… Debunking Duncan, Double Standard and Downing Punts
December 21, 2011Ohio State Recieves Bowl Ban: Avoids ‘Death Penalty’
December 21, 2011
The Indians off-season has been fairly compelling so far. I say that knowing full-well that there is some anger out there in the Tribeville regarding the front office’s decisions to date. For reasons I’ve discussed before, re-signing Grady for one year seems to me to be an efficient use of $5 million. Derek Lowe comes almost free. The additions of Aaron Cunningham, Jose Lopez, and Felix Pie are not game-changers, but they certainly don’t make the team appreciably worse.
As the child of billionaire once said, “What’s not to like [about being the child of a billionaire and signing players to minor league contracts and gambling on low-risk, high-reward reclamation projects]?”
On top of that, we’re going to get a full year of Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis and Ubaldo Jimenez in 2012—three players who figure to be improvements over the likes of their predecessors. It would be nearly impossible for Shin-Soo Choo to play worse than he did last season. Carlos Santana is only going to get better. In a weak division, the team looks poised to contend. And for someone who writes about this team, that’s something I haven’t been able to say for several years. This feels good.
So why all the angst out there? Well, I’m pretty sure I know where it comes from. For one, we have a gaping-sized hole at first base. For another, left field doesn’t look so hot either.* For (c), ownership told us that when the team was ready to contend, they’d spend to add talent, and this off-season doesn’t feel like the sort of spending we were promised.
*It should be noted that those two holes represent the two biggest pieces of the CC Sabathia trade, Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley. While I still hold out some hope that Brantley will get on base enough not to stink entirely, I think it’s pretty clear this trade has become a bust. I generally try to give these things a few years to play out. It’s been a few years, and I’m afraid it might have played out.
But you know that the team is spending, right? I’ve written about this before, but it’s likely that the service time raises due to Shin-Soo Choo, Chris Perez, Justin Masterson and Asdrubal Cabrera will add about $10 million to the 2012 payroll. It might not be the sort of spending some were hoping for, but it’s exactly the sort of spending that’s necessary: I can’t imagine letting any of those players go right now, and retaining them requires a financial investment.
Throw in the contracts for Grady and Lowe, Fausto’s exercised option, and the arbitration raises to Joe Smith, Raffy Perez and Jack Hannahan, and all of a sudden the Indians could be spending close to $20 million more in 2012 than they did in 2011. That’s real money, and for the most part, I’m glad the club is choosing to spend it.
Even still, the team hasn’t done what a majority of the fanbase has been pining for: make an investment in a free agent bat to shore up the offense. There have been players on the market who would seem to fit this bill. Michael Cuddyer and Josh Willingham both appeared to be within the reach of mid-market teams. Cuddyer ended up signing with the Rockies for $31.5 million over three years; Willingham went the Twins for three years and $21 million. We know the Indians were interested in both players, but in the end decided they weren’t worth the three-year investment. It’s looking more and more likely that Shelley Duncan could be our opening day first baseman.
This is, admittedly, frustrating to those people who are not my wife or who are not named Shelley Duncan. Not the Dunc-a-dunc logic, exactly (though I proposed this idea way back in August and have more hope for it than some others), but the not-spending-idea. On the other hand, I can see the logic here. When you have limited resources, you have to choose where to spend the money. Mark Shapiro has made it clear that the front office believes the most effective use of resources is to invest in the young players the team is trying to build around, rather than overspending on complementary pieces.
And I think I agree with this. This team will go as far as Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez and Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall and Shin-Soo Choo will take them. If those players don’t perform, we have no shot—Michael Cuddyer or no. If they do, then we’ll have a real chance at winning in our mediocre division. To spend $10 million a year on a free agent who might be worth 1 to 2 additional wins over the guys we have on board? I guess I can see the point of building from within. Those are the guys I really want around anyway.
Further, if there’s one place I’ve always advocated for high-spending, it’s on youth. One of the reasons I got bent out of shape enough to write a five part opus on the stupid new CBA is that it hamstrung our ability to OVER-spend in the Rule 4 draft, which is what we’ve been doing the last several years. This philosophy of investing in youth and eschewing older players seems to me the only way to win a game that gets more and more unfair with each passing year. For the first six years of a player’s career, you can get his services for something approaching free. And those six years often include the best seasons of any player’s career: you can look it up.
But perhaps this is getting too esoteric. If so, I’ll remind you of the last time we signed a player for more than three years and more than $20 million. His name was Travis, and we’re still paying for that sin, Pronkville and all. This isn’t to say that Travis Hafner is everything that’s wrong with the Indians (though his contract was a major turning point in the franchise’s history that still gets less attention than it should). Rather, it’s just a reminder that the mistakes of a front office aren’t always those of inaction. Sometimes signing a big contract is the worst thing that can happen to a team, and part of me is happy to have avoided what could have been a three-year noose with a player on the wrong side of 30.
On the other hand, 2012 will be the last year of the Hafner contract, and part of me wonders if this rebuild didn’t happen a year before the front office expected it. It gets me thinking about long-term plans, and what the team might do with the additional money that’ll come off the books then. So many options start to open up down the road that my head starts spinning.
But for once, I’m happy I don’t have to think about seasons down the road. This is a team that can win the division, warts and all. I’m going to enjoy that thought rather than drown it out in free agent lamentations. At least until we sign Prince Fielder.
29 Comments
If I tell my girlfriend I’m going to take her out on a fantastic shopping spree, and that she couldn’t even guess where we were going if I gave her fifty tries, and then proceeded to take her to the Dollar Tree down the street I don’t think she’d be pleased either.
wait a second. does this mean the tribe is out of the running for Gralos Beltmore?
Given that the FA market is finished, most people seem to be pining for the Tribe to go out and trade for a 1B – someone in the Trumbo/Morales/Rizzo type of mold. I’m all for it – I have no problem giving up prospects for proven major league talent (though proven is a questionable description of some guys out there). That said, I think it’s ironic that these same people whining about us not trading for a bat are the ones that whined about us giving up prospects for Ubaldo. You can’t have it both ways people.
In a related note, can we squash the notion of Shelley Duncan as an everyday, or even close to everyday, player? As a recent Diatribe post pointed out, Shelley Duncan is 32 and has shown us that he’s at best a fringe major league bat. Matt LaPorta has been no worse than Duncan, is 5 years younger, and doesn’t look like an ogre. Get over the fact that he didn’t turn into the all-star we all hoped he’d be and give the guy the 1B job, at least until we can acquire someone better.
Everything has to go right just for the Indians to contend – that’s the real problem. I think it’s funny how the “we’ll spend when we contend” thing is blown off. That’s why people aren’t sold on them.
Jon, I think I like your articles so much because we have the same basic opinions.
Points:
a.) As much as I want a big FA bat, Kubel/Willingham/et al just weren’t worth the money.
b.) We will fail or succeed based on our core of young players.
c.) Winter ’12 will be a huge offseason with Hafner coming off the books.
I will add this- more than a few teams have added left fielders and Fielder is still out there (not for us). Long short, more than a few teams have lesser known guys that they can move. The Diamondbacks now have two young, can-only-play first basemen. Seth Smith and Gerrado Parra are both now bench players. The Angels have a glut at first thanks to Pujols.
Shapiro has said a couple times- free agency isn’t just December. I’d still put the chances of us making a big as less than likely, but the hot stove is still pretty warm.
@1- I think Hoynes hit the “50 guesses” nail on the head. The Indians front office was going into the winter meetings aware that they weren’t going to do much so they put that out there to give the local sports writers something. Some would argue that’s manipulative, but it sure did give us something to discuss.
Also, this is a franchise that has been to the playoffs three times since the Browns came back. The Cavs, in the everybody-makes-it-to-the postseason NBA, only have five playoff appearances in that time frame.
I know they are frustrating, but I think the Indians receive an unfair proportion of Clevelander disdain.
Last point (I’m happy to not be talking about the Browns): the “50 guesses” thing kind of got blown up by the local media.
It wasn’t- hellz yeah! we’re going to do something so insane and unexpected, you will never guess. gonna blow the roof off this place!
It was more- yes, there are all kinds of weird proposals being talked about here. As a matter of fact, I just heard one that you’d never guess.
Pitchers and catchers report on Februrary 20th. Two months.
When Hafner’s contract comes off the books, won’t there be that many more players currently on the team due raises? Will there really be any more money to spend, or just new holes to fill?
@NJ – I suppose. I just found that statement to be very underhanded, especially since (so far) nothing of note has come to fruition. For a FO and ownership that has already been under fire for being “cheap” and saying “we’ll spend when we’re in it” to then come out and simply posture like that to get fans excited is a little pathetic.
I may be in the minority here but, I am excited to see a few of our prospects full time next year but this team as a whole doesn’t strike me as a contender. I know they’re a victim of the system but I’ve not been impressed by the moves made by this FO, especially Ubaldo. So far they’ve done nothing to change my mind about that.
Hey, why shouldn’t ManRam be under consideration for left field. Obviously a head case, but one the organization dealt with before. He might be willing to restore his legacy a bit with the Tribe.
@NJ
Thank you very much. I beat the “the Indians are have been the best team in the city since 1994 and receive the worst attendance” drum pretty hard around these parts.
It frustrates me to no end the fact this team has had more playoff/championship appearances than any other team here for the past two decades and yet the gripe continues. I get it, we cannot be content with just playoffs and ALCS/world series appearances every three to five years but…..
Could you imagine this city if the Browns were to make the Playoffs / AFC Championship Game / Superbowl every 3-5 years?
On the other note: I am glad we didn’t sink $21 million into Cuddyer or god forbid $35 into Willingham.
Stay the course with the farm system and hit on a trade, that is how this team is going to contend and eventually win it all.
fear. the. tribe. 2012
Well, it won’t just be Hafner imo. It’ll be that $11M, plus (and again, just my opinion) Carmona’s $7M (don’t see us picking up the $9M option), Lowe’s $5M, Sizemore’s $5M, Jimenez’s $3M…. of course, maybe some of those guys stick around, but if that’s the case it’s because they’re playing well which would be a good thing. But I’m thinking we’ll be walking into ’12 with money to spend.
Even if increases in salary are $20M, that still is $10M less than this year. And that’s losing guys who, sadly, haven’t been huge contributors over the last couple years.
My point: we’re entering a window where we have a LOT of salary flexibility. None of our young players are signed (good and bad). We only have $3.75M (Hafner/Jimenez buyouts) in commitments in ’13. So this is a huge season for us. It will dictate who we are and who we will be.
I hope that if the Tribe is in contention into the summer, not signing a RH bat this offseason will be rectified through a mid-season trade.
@9 I agree, it’s likely that the millions freed from Hafner, Carmona, etc. will go to long term deals for some combination of Cabrera, Choo, Masterson, Perez, and/or Santana. Not to say that’s a bad thing – much more efficient to lock up some of these guys through their arbitration years than go fishing in FA and end up with David Delluci.
Roll tribe
@10- You’re right. It was underhanded. I just keep it in perspective. It was winter meeting patter, not a press conference talking point about why we fired our head coach (not winning enough? hello, 4-12).
@11- A headcase. A 50 game (?) suspension. 1-for-17 in 2011. Many red flags. I haven’t read much about Manny, but I have to imagine if a team could sign him to a minor league deal they would. Can’t see him doing that though. Johnny Damon is still out there too.
@12- What gets me is how they’ve been an exciting, successful team in the face of all the bad breaks– injuries, FA failings, bad contracts, etc.
If Sizemore stays healthy, if Hafner is Hafner (and stays healthy), if Lee becomes Lee one year earlier, if we don’t fall so hard in ’08… I think Shapiro and Co. were just a few bad breaks from being legendary. In Cleveland and around the league.
And no, I do not work for the Indians. Wish I did, but I do not.
chris and NJ count me in the group. The Browns and Indians remind me of an exchange between Brad Pitt and Aidan Quinn in Legends of the Fall. Quinn tells Pitt “I followed all the rules, man’s, God’s, and you followed none of them. And they all loved you more.”
If the Browns had the consistency and clarity of the Indians front office the team would be a perenial SuperBowl contender. The Browns are spending about 50 mil paying off fired coaches and execs and everyone is just fine with it. The Indians don’t blow 30 mil on a .280 hitter and they get killed for it.
I’d also like to point out for whatever its worth the Dolan family is incredibly active in charitable organizations in the area and don’t seem to get credit for it. I know every August we participate in a Buddy Walk for Down’s Syndrome where they open the stadium up and the kids get to go down on the field, games etc. just a great event. I’ve been told by others at this walk that the Dolans support dozens of such events and never send out pressers to let it be known. Just sayin’ winning may be the biggest thing, but it ain’t the only thing.
@NJ – you are correct in #17. a few bad breaks from really being a good long-term team (especially for our division).
a shame, but alot of fans can’t get over the 3-trades. i try to focus more on the fact that those 3 players are not even the only 3 guys this FO has hit on. our talent influx has been much better than the other teams in our city.
cc, lee, victor. sizemore, hafner. now, masterson, asdrubel, santana. perhaps this year chis and kipnis maybe even jimenez.
could you imagine that many quality players coming through the Browns over the last 6 years? and they have twice the roster size to do it 🙂
And the hits keep coming – Andy LaRoche to a minor league deal.
@NJ – That is still a lot of if’s. I’d love to be positive about this team headed into next year but things pan out in my head like this.
-Unproven youth in Kipnis, Chiz and even Santana.
-Can the guys that contributed good years last year repeat that? There are plenty of players than flash a good year and have two or three stinkers in a row. This team cant afford to have Choo, Brantley, Masterson, Acab etc. have even a slightly off year.
-Can Ubaldo contribute? I think that is a legitimate question. I’m not talking 12 wins, he needs to at or approaching 20 wins with our anemic offense.
-The whistling chasms at first base and in the right handed batters box.
-What the heck is going to happen with Sizemore and Hafner. Obviously the biggest question marks. Given the track record I don’t see either turning it around at this point.
I support the team, but I am very much tempering my expectations. Everyone is wearing rose colored glasses about the youth and the start this team put up last year but in the end they were extremely inconsistent. I know the injuries piled up but by that time the quality of play was already in a steady decline. This team rode a hot start and wonky division play, to being in contention. It’s not going to be like that every year. Forgive my half glass empty attitude, I desperately want to see this team succeed and I hope I’m wrong!
@19 – Not to mention all the 2nd/3rd level talent types… Shoppach, Gute, Francisco, Crisp, Carroll, Mujica, Belliard, Blake… guys who don’t have trouble finding work in the bigs.
It was reported that the Tribe’s offer to Willingham was 15 million for 2 years. Even that is pushing it for a guy who will be 33 at the start of the season. Im glad we passed on that deal.
And Rockies way overpaid for Cuddyer. He and Willingham are basically the same player, not sure why the market value for him was so much higher.
@21- Don’t mistake my praise for optimism. Even if we’re the best $70M team in baseball, we’re still a $70M team.
That the Indians can compete regularly while, somehow, simultaneously remaining terrible is why I love them so much.
This is exactly the type of team I want to see bring a championship to Cleveland. Come that day, it can’t be a Pujols or Fielder playing first; it has to be Shelly Duncan. Sal Fasano is going to get the big hit in game seven and Felix Pie will be the first on the mic after the parade down Carnegie.
I was never on-board with Lebron because there just seemed something unholy about it. That’s not us. That’s not how we roll. We don’t have the best player in the league. We don’t have the tenth best player in the league. We do it the hard, stupid, backwards way. We’re the unlovable losers, the home of Harvey Pekar.
Well at least by signing LaRoche, we have a suitable replacement for Travis Buck 😀
Very good post, and most of the comments.
Slight complaint: Why rip on Brantley? He was actually doing pretty well until he got hurt, particularly out of the leadoff spot, IIRC. I think he’ll do very well again this year if healthy.
Also, serious credit is due to the front office: If LaPorta were even close to the “lock” stud 1B he was supposed to be and was regarded as by *all* front offices, then they would have a top-to-bottom lineup of solid young players. That’s really impressive and shows pretty great foresight.
I think its unfair to say that Brantley stinks, but the problem with him is that hes competent in a lot of areas but not really “good” at anything. He doesnt hit for a high average, doesnt draw a lot of walks, doesnt hit for much power. His defense is pretty average. Hopefully he continues to improve though because we will need him next season in left field. It aint saying much, but I did feel that Brantley was our best defensive outfielder last season.
Oh and here is a faint flicker of hope for out free agent prospects. Probably a long shot, but its something…
http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/status/149709687170932737
@27- Awesome. That is very cool. I just read yesterday how Beltran was getting pretty poor offers (Mike Cameron at Fangraphs said it sounded like he was going to get 2/20 with a vesting third option). That’s in our ballpark. I don’t get why Beltran isn’t drawing more attention – 300/385/525 and a 5ish WAR last season.
As for Brantley, another issue with him is that he’s a CF at heart. It’s a hard pill to swallow having a corner outfielder with a sub-100 OPS+. Also, his defense doesn’t seem all that, average at best. That said, he’ll still only be 25 and definitely has shown promise. As far as I’m concerned, he’s our starting CF come the Sizemore May/June trip to the DL.
Dave Cameron, not Mike.