Beautiful Lies: A Moneyball Review
December 30, 2011Week 17: The Browns Will Win If…
December 30, 2011With an offseason rife with question marks and holes in dire need of filling, and a coverboy running back about to finish up a tumultuous season, one of the many decisions being placed squarely on the shoulders of the Cleveland Browns front office surrounds the future of one Peyton Hillis.
In the last two weeks, the 250-pound back has amassed 211 yards and a touchdown on 50 carries. This period marks what has been Hillis’ largest usage rate since his 31 touches in the Week 2 win over Indianapolis where he totaled 117 yards and two touchdowns. The issues at hand are the 12 weeks in between that saw last season’s savior suit up for a mere five contests, recording more than 12 carries just once. Hillis’ offseason issues have been writ large; injuries, illness and alleged mid-week nuptials are just a small portion of the 800-pound gorilla that continues to loom in Berea as the player is also in the final year of his rookie contract.
At this point in August, it appeared that the team was ready to lock up Hillis for the foreseeable future as they were spending the bulk of their available cap space on core players who would be a part of the rebuilding process. Now, after what was at best an up-and-down season, his future remains largely uncertain as the team heads into their Week 17 matchup against the playoff-bound Pittsburgh Steelers.
“I think as we look at our roster and we look at building our team I think we need to consider everything,” said head coach Pat Shurmur, of Hillis, during Thursday afternoon’s press conference. “One thing youâve seen about Peyton is in the last month or so heâs gotten himself back healthy and heâs performed well. Thatâs the Peyton I think that everybody here is used to seeing from a year ago and thatâs what Iâm starting to see now.”
If we use “everything” as the operative word, we’re looking not only at Hillis’ mental make-up and physical potential, but the best way to address other holes as well. It seems, on the cover, that re-signing a rare back and using the draft and free agency (gulp) elsewhere makes sense. But does it?
Opting to skirt most of the issue, deflecting it to what he considers “offseason discussions,” Shurmur was uncommitted at best when it came to his would-be star running back. Conversely, the head coach was quick to loft praise at place kicker Phil Dawson as well as several rookie players who, per him, have managed to break through the rookie wall and show consistency down the stretch. But when it circled back to Hillis, all Shurmur would say is that he has “gotten to know him better” as the season wore on.
Serving as a bit of a recap, The Plain Dealer caught up with Hillis who is now a believer in the infamous “Madden Curse,” due to his bevy of injuries and issues. And while he can cast blame on misguided spirits for the strain sustained by his hamstring, it’s tough to blame anyone but the player when it comes to the way he handled a variety of off-field problems which ranged from listening to his agent and sitting out a game, skipping a charity event, and forcing his teammates to have an intervention on a plane ride back to Cleveland.
Unfortunately for Hillis, this season coupled with his run with the Denver Broncos prior to being packaged with a draft selection in a trade for quarterback Brady Quinn, it is looking like his 2010 season is more of the aberration than the one surrounded by issues galore. He is finally back to saying all of the right things, telling media that he wants to be in Cleveland beyond New Year’s Day and has really enjoyed his time spent.Â
Also unfortunate is that, unless he’s willing to take a shot to his pride and accept what the Browns offer him to remain with the team, it may be too little too late.
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(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
37 Comments
I think he’ll get what he’s asking from from another team, but that said team will regret it pretty quickly thereafter. He is a good, not great, running back. Further, even discounting this season, he appears quite injury prone.
I think his ‘tude has been put in check and that it won’t really be a problem any longer. But I just don’t think there will be production anywhere near what he’s asking.
I’m not a Hillis apologist at this point. Let him go, he’s unhappy here and that’s all there is to it. This season has been less about his play and more about him wanting to get paid, so give him his wish. This draft should be about refreshing the offensive side of the ball anyway, someone can be had to fill his shoes.
I don’t know why the Browns wouldn’t want him back. He’s not going to strike it rich as a free agent, so money should not be an issue. As for the rest of the soap opera, it wasn’t all that bad, especially compared to the situations with head cases like DeShean Jackson.
At any rate, what Shurmur says about Hillis’ future doesn’t matter much because he won’t be making that decision.
He can be bruising, but that’s not his biggest asset. His biggest asset, and why we thought he’d do so well in the WCO is that he has amazing hands. You guys remember that 19 yard one-handed touchdown pass last year, right? How about that summersaulting catch he had a couple games back this year? He had several amazing catches in Denver as well.
They’re not using him right, and it shows in his stats.
If we’re looking for someone to run straight ahead and crush people… hillis can do that to some extent but he’s not the best at it.
So… I hope we don’t sign him. I hope he goes somewhere where the coaching staff is halfway competent and knows how to use the pieces to their best advantage, rather than someone with a miopic view of a “system” that all their players must be crammed in to without any regard for how they fit.
@chris – I wasn’t impressed with Hillis catching the ball. Not that he can’t do it, but that he’s not a play maker like that. It takes him time to build up a head of steam so throwing him the ball on screens or short passes where he has to stop and catch and start moving again isn’t going to be terribly effective. I like that he gives you the option to catch but in the end he isn’t going to be a RB1 in a system that screens a lot.
I agree w/ Mr. Cleaveland and, to an extent, Chris.
Hillis is the one dynamic playmaker we have that opposing defenses must account for – it would be foolish to let him walk b/c of one slightly tumultuous season (like Mr C said, let’s not blow his issues out of proportion).
Put some more weapons around Hillis (RG3 please?/Playmaking WR) and he is a formidable piece of a potentially dangerous offense. Plus, we should be getting Brandon Jackson back to offset Hillis as a 3rd-down back. Really, does anyone want to go into next year with Hardesty as the feature back? Didn’t think so.
When healthy, happy and motivated he is very good with a skill set which complements this offense. But he’s injury prone and distractable by his personal issues. He’s changed agents multiple times looking for the big score and the PD quoted a front office person that what we read this year is just the tip of the iceberg as far as his issues.
Would love to sign him, but at a price that reflects the probability that he will be regularly dinged up and pouty if someone else gets carries when he’s not. Don’t see it happening. The Browns see his issues, while he’s getting all Howdy/Aw Shucks again because he’s just banked a few nice games at the finish line.
I sometimes wonder if his attitude has more to do with the change of leadership in the team. Maybe he has a style in the locker room that Mangini was fine with but Captain Kangaroo/Shurmur cannot abide, and so instead of (1) Shurmur being a man and addressing it with him or (2) Hillis changing his ‘tude for the better of the team, neither happened and we have what we have now with his situation.
What I don’t agree with is the above notion that he won’t perform; he is an INSTANT game changer. Name another offensive starter on our team that the opposing team has to “game plan?” We currently have none. Don’t you dare count Cribbs.
It would be par for the course of this regime to let him go, however. You don’t get to the Madden cover without universal appeal across the lower 48. The “what could have beens” with him and the Browns are really sad. But, I’d expect no less from these idiots.
In keeping with the title of this article, the only things I need to consider now for this regime is where I am going to hold my “I Told You So” parade once these morons skip town (or are thrown out). E.9th street? Euclid Avenue? Maybe Lakeside, in full view of the stadium.
@7: Certainly. If Hillis is a cancer in the locker room or has issues that we don’t see, then I retract everything I said. You can’t have that in your locker room. I don’t think we have any way of knowing for sure, though. Unless a coach comes out and says it.
@5: I agree, he’s like a freight train in that regard. Slow to get moving but hard as heck to stop. Look at his highlight reals. His best runs and passes are passes to him down field, or swings where they get him moving along an arc.
I’m not saying he’s the best running back in the world, but I think there’s a little bit of revisionism going on when people say that he’s easily replaceable.
Then again, next year will be the year to tell who was right and who was wrong about Hillis. If he has another year like this (while being used correctly), clearly I thought too highly of him. At this point, I’m putting a lot of this team’s woes on the coach, though.
@ MrCleaveland: Well said, sir. And let’s all hope that Shurmur doesn’t have much say in anything other than what flight to take home after this year.
@ Chris: It would be fitting, wouldn’t it, to see him used perfectly in a West Coast system. You are, of course, invited to the parade.
@8: It’s pretty obvious that he was voted Madden Coverboy b/c he was a non-drafted fantasy runningback who put up RB1/2 type numbers. While that certainly says something about his play on the field, let’s not pretend he’s Johnson, Peterson, or the others he WANTS to be paid like.
Classic Browns, mishandling a situation with epic thoroughness. Why is it that every time they have a good player, they get in some kind of argument, and we’re left trying to give them the benefit of the doubt about the now-gone player? He’s the best offensive player on the team, he get 100 yards every single time he’s given a shot. Stop being a bunch of drama queens and give him his damn money.
@ ben: Interesting idea, although I think you over-estimate fantasy football players as having that much of a say. If that were true, than Vick would have been cover boy, as he was the comeback story of the millennium and he scored a gazillion points. More than Hillis, I might add, in standard leagues. And he’s a QB. How often do they grace the covers of Madden? Pretty often.
I’d certainly not put him in the CJ or Peterson bus, but I think his appeal is larger than you’re willing to admit. And I also think it has more to do with his hard style of running. Football is a contact sport, and the NFL sells the toughness of it because it sells. Oh, they make a charade of caring about the healthiness of players, but deep down you know they love a good Sportscenter highlight hit as much as the next guy.
Resign Hillis, 1a – RG3, 1b – Alshon Jeffrey, 2 – RT. BJax and Steinbach back next year. Add a full offseason, Norwood in the slot and that offense will be light years better, if only on paper.
If the Browns can bring Hillis back at a contract that is fair to the team, then they should go for it. Having Hillis for the next 2-3 years would help the team fill other more-pressing holes.
If we, as fans, can see that Hillis didn’t earn a big money contract this year, and the Browns front office can see that, then we have to assume the rest of the league saw that as well, which means no one will be throwing megabucks at Hillis, which should help the Browns bring him back at a reasonable cost.
While it would have been nice to see Hillis healthy all season, if his injuries mean 1) the Browns have him at a reasonable price for the next 3 years, 2) they use their 3 draft picks in the top 40 and free agency to fill other holes and 3) that accelerates the rebuilding process, then we can look back on this season in a more favorable light.
@ Craig: There is still a 600000 lb. gorilla in the room named Shurmur who will ruin it by handing it off to Alex Smith…sigh.
I don’t think we disagree that Hillis is a good player. I just don’t want to be the dupes who overpay him. (Although, it’s the NFL and that doesn’t really matter, unlike in baseball or basketball).
But re: Hillis v. Vick
If you recall, it did come down to Hillis v. Vick for the cover. And Hillis won. I’d bet the house that the reason for that is b/c Vick murdered dogs and Hillis didn’t. (Also, there is likely a racial component to it, but I don’t really want to get into that discussion).
Regarding front office incompetence, I still don’t get the Phil Dawson deal. For some incomprehensible reason, the Browns blew him off, so he sold his house here and moved his family back to Texas. Then they dropped the franchise tag on him. It’s hard to believe the FO is so disorganized.
@ ben: Racial! He already one the cover previously (2004). Also, to refute this, I offer the following Madden covers as evidence:
2001: Eddie George
2002: Culpepper
2003: Faulk
2004: Vick
2005: Ray Lewis
2006: Donovan McNabb
2007: Shaun Alexander
2008: Vince Young
2009: Favre (first/only white guy on this list)
2010: Polamalu and Fitzgerald (two non-whites just to make up for last year??!)
So yeah..about that bias…
I don’t think you understand how last years cover was different than any other cover in the Madden series…
@ MrCleaveland: Au contraire, I think its very easy to believe they are insanely inept. If something walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck…etc. etc.
@ ben: It was different, of course; it had Peyton Hillis on it. It said 2011 on it. I think I just ran out of difference. And, if you say voting for the cover athlete was the main difference…then that’s silly. You think one mega-mind @ EA decided previously? They’re not fools; they did market research like any other decent company to determine what would sell best in all those previous years.
Also, the whole voting things make me a little…nervous. I tend to think that many of those online voting things are mostly a sham, but you can believe it if you want. I want to believe it because I know he had universal appeal (I went to college in Pittsburgh and my friends there adored Hillis in 2010), but I tend to distrust things hosted on ESPN.com sites.
I think it’s a priority we re-sign him, especially since it looks like the Browns will be selecting a QB with the first pick. The past couple of games show that a healthy Hillis makes us a better team.
It said 2012 on it đ
@ ben: Woops! You got me there. Majoring in the minors, are we? Give me a break, it’s the day before a long weekend and I’m sleepy.
By the by, check out the ONE linebacker/defensive player on the cover, save the dual-cover of Fitz/HeadnShoulder man. You win championships with defense, right?!?! đ
Occurs to me that whether they re-sign him or not the Browns still don’t have a sturdy feature back. Hillis gets hurt, as does Hardesty. Jackson is not a feature back, and is a little older. Last season they counted on Hillis and Jackson being healthy and Montario rounding into shape. Sadly, they might have to use significant resources, either in a higher draft choice or FA signing, to get one. And this was one of the few positions where they had supposedly accumalated depth.
@ Harv 21: How could you leave Chris Ogbonnaya off the list? How…could…you…
It would break my heart if we drafted Richardson as out first pick. Unless they sign Hillis the day before. A 1-2 punch with those two would be deadly; it would also be what Hardesty was supposed to be when he came here.
Ok…for anyone who doesn’t think that Hillis has the talent we need then how do you expalin the fact that in 2010 he was the first white running back in 25 years to gain 1000 yards rushing….and only the 3rd in the ensuing 33 years since 1979….( Riggins in 79,83,84 and Craig James in 85 )….save the race comments…I am stating a FACT…..he might just be more special than we think….But since Shurmur doent like him he may be gone….( I would think being disliked by the WORST head coach in pro football might be a good thing..) so what if he is a head case….you learn to deal with it….you dont think that teams like PIttsburgh dont have the same problems with guys like Harrison etc????….they DO..but they know how to deal with it within the confines of the locker room…..so pay the man….he isint going to command anywhere near what he wants and will sign….trust me…his agent already knows that
Maybe Denver knew something.
I would be very surprised if his body lasts another 2 full seasons.
also @29:
“so pay the manâŠ.he isint going to command anywhere near what he wants and will signâŠ.trust meâŠhis agent already knows that”
what? Pay him. But he isn’t worth what he wants?
He’s the only guy on the team that defenses fear. He’s serviceable and has a unique running style that fits with AFC North late-season games. He gets 100 yds pretty much every time he carries 20 times. He can catch out of the backfield (like Chris said, you got to throw it to him while he’s moving downhill to get the full effect).
We need draft picks for other needs. Hardesty is a bum as far as I can tell. SIGN HILLIS. If we overpay by a small margin, so be it. This team cant keep giving up its playmakers for nothing.
Something happened with Hillis and the Browns and we’ll probably never know. I agree with those who lay at least half the blame on the Browns for the way they handled it all. Horrible timing for sure. I don’t think Hillis is worth what the top RBs get simply because health is a huge issue with him. Not only that but his running style ensures his longevity being low. In a perfect world he gets resigned for less money. I still like Monty Ball out of Wisconsin and people think he could be had in the third round. If so he’s a steal.
@Shamrock
I’ve seen stat infographics where Monty Ball is compared to Barry Sanders, have you watched him play, is this a “reasonable” comparison?
Here is a question:
who has the better season in 2012…
A. Adrian Peterson
B. Chris Johnson
C. Peyton Hillis
for the reason that this is actually a legitimate question, i say the Browns have to re-sing the guy. i mean, they’ve got talent right here in Cleveland and they’re gonna let him go? find a deal. make it work.
@ stin4u: Saying that Hillis is misused in receiving Screen Passes neglects one part of the play. As the name implies, a screen pass usually features blockers providing a screen for the running back who’s catching the ball. Cleveland’s line is currently incapable of providing that screen of blockers which would allow Peyton to get started up the field and into the secondary. All too often even the TE has to kept in for protection, leaving Hillis naked in the flat.