Talking Myself in Circles over Quarterbacks
January 3, 2012Putting a Fork in the 2011 Buckeyes
January 3, 2012Without doing anything to you and me, let’s assume a few things.
First, let’s assume that the roster for the 2012 Indians is, if not set in stone, then at least not likely to undergo significant additions. Let’s also assume that Michael Brantley will open the season in left field and spend most of his time in the outfield this season. Further, let’s assume that the Indians stay fairly healthy in 2012. And finally, let’s pretend that Carlos Santana is going to be behind home plate for a majority of the season.
If (one more assumption, sorry), the Indians would like to have a “regular” first baseman in 2012, that leaves us with four reasonable options. Let’s consider each, both pros and cons.
Matt LaPorta: I wrote last year around this time that 2011 would determine LaPorta’s future with the Indians. I believed then that, based on his 2011, the Indians would have enough information to decide whether LaPorta had any sort of future with the club or if he was destined for the infamy that accompanies so many burned out prospects.
And it would be hard to argue that LaPorta did anything last year to secure a spot on this team. He had a career high strikeout rate (22.6%) and an awful walk rate (6.0%), meaning that for every walk he coaxed he struck out nearly four times. These peripherals led to an on base percentage below .300—a career low for a player whose career never looked particularly decent in the first place. Furthermore, he slugged only .412 in 2011, which isn’t exactly terrible, but isn’t near the power bat we all thought we’d be getting three years ago. His isolated power ranked below Lonnie Chisenhall’s.
LaPorta will turn 27 next week, and at an age when most good players are hitting their peaks, he’s hoping he won’t be sent back to Triple A. I still wonder if he isn’t an adjustment or two away from being a decent hitter. The problem is I’ve been wondering this for three years now, and he hasn’t gotten any better. His defense and baserunning are sub-par. His hitting remains awful. Couple that with his reverse platoon split—for his career he’s been considerably worse against right-handed pitching than southpaws—and you have to squint real hard to see him as your everyday first baseman in 2012.
Does LaPorta deserve the starting job? No. He doesn’t. But as Snoop reminds us: deserve’s got nothing to do with it, and if there aren’t any reasonable alternatives out there, he might win out simply due to inertia and pedigree.
Jack Hannahan: When the Indians opened the 2011 campaign with Hannahan in the everyday lineup, I was thinking mostly of Jason Donald’s crummy luck. Hannahan did his best to change that. Over the first month of the season, he played gold glove defense while OPSing .829 and hitting four home runs.
That’s the sort of player that could be useful on the 2012 squad, and considering that Lonnie Chisenhall will likely eat up most of the time at the hot corner, Hannahan could make some sense at first base.
There are three major problems with this scenario. The first is that—all due respect to his 2011 April—that was a mirage. For the rest of the season, he hit .243/.326/.358 (.684 OPS). For his career, he has a .231/.317/.358 line (.675 OPS). In other words, we have every reason to believe that last April was a fluke, and that going forward, he’s a lot more likely to OPS below .700 than over .800.
Second is that Hannahan bats from the left side, and despite reasonable splits for his career, he just doesn’t seem to offer the sort of pop against LHP that this lineup needs.
Finally, his defensive skills are likely to be less valuable at first base than they were at third base. You just don’t save nearly as many runs with a great first baseman (if he is one) than you do with a great third baseman (which he certainly is). In other words, Hannahan’s most valuable contribution will largely be lost if the Indians move him to first, and we might just be stuck with a worse player than LaPorta.
Shelley Duncan: Dunkers is a family favorite, and I must admit: I may have advocated for him to take over at first base during his meteoric September last season. After all, he did hit .265/.340/.602 (.943 OPS) during that glorious last month. In case you’re wondering, those numbers are beyond adequate for a first baseman: in 2011 only four first baseman put up better numbers over the course of the season: Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, and Joey Votto.
But let’s get real. If we dock Hannahan for a small sample size, then we have to do the same for Dunc-A-Dunc. For his career, he’s a .239/.313/.441 (.754 OPS) hitter. That’s not great. That’s barely adequate. His excellent power (.202 ISO) masks some real problems with his ability to get on base. A .313 OBP is well below league average. In fact, last season only three qualified first baseman got on base less often: Mark Trumbo (.291—stop begging for him please), Adam Lind (.295), and Aubrey Huff (.306, for the bargain price of $11 million!).
Of course, Matt LaPorta didn’t qualify. But if he did, he’d have fallen well below Dunkers. And that’s part of the point here. When you have only bad options to choose from, you’re forced into some pretty unpalatable decisions. It’s hard to argue that Duncan isn’t the best stick among the three candidates we’ve mentioned so far.
On top that, Shelley provides some real protection for a lineup that is truly devastated by LHP. For his career, he has a .770 OPS against LHP. For reference, as a team the Indians OPS’d .708 against LHP in 2011; only Minnesota, Oakland, and Seattle were worse in the AL.
But, well, I’m just not sure about this. For one thing, Shelley’s numbers might be inflated because he’s never been expected to be an everyday hitter. He’s benefitted from favorable matchups and part-time contributions. It seems that relying on him as an everyday player would be an inherently risky venture. Further, his defense is about as poor as it gets: a graceful gazelle he is not. Even more, he’s already 32 years old, which makes me think he’s getting worse from here on out. At least LaPorta has some upside that might still come through.
It’s easy to suggest that Duncan is our best—albeit flawed—option at this point. But if we’re being honest, there are plenty of reasons the team might want to keep him on the bench as they have over the last few seasons.
Aaron Cunningham: Obviously the dark horse here. We don’t have a whole lot of information to go on here. Which means we’re going to play my favorite game.
Here are two players’ Triple A lines:
Player A: .313/.400/.553 (.953 OPS)
Player B: .304/.377/.492 (.869 OPS)
Those both look like really nice players to me. Both seem to have a strong combination of plate discipline and power. I’d be happy to have either prospect in my system, but we have to admit that Player A looks slightly better, especially considering that he came from the International League while Player B came from the more hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Ready?
Player A is Matt LaPorta. Player B is Aaron Cunningham.
Look. I’m not saying that Aaron Cunningham is going to turn out like Matt LaPorta. Most of the time, when prospects hit as well as LaPorta and Cunninham did in the high minors, they end up succeeding in MLB. It’s not fair to discount Cunningham just because he wasn’t as good as LaPorta was in Triple A. A LOT of good MLB players weren’t as good as LaPorta was in Triple A.
But I’m also allowed to at least bring it up, right? Good.
Because the comparison goes beyond the numbers above. When he wasn’t tearing up the PCL for parts of four seasons, Cunningham got a few cups of coffee in the Big Leagues. In his 392 career plate appearances, Cunningham hit .231/.290/.375 (.665 OPS). Granted, it’s not a huge sample size, but it’s also not the sort of line you’d like to see from a starting first baseman.
And so when I suggested that we “already had a LaPorta” when we traded for Cunningham several weeks ago, it wasn’t without some reason: both were highly regarded, right handed hitting prospects who seemed to struggle with the adjustment to Major League pitching.
On the other hand, there are at least three differences between the two players that I find compelling enough to mention. First, while LaPorta really struggles against LHP pitching, Cunningham has the more traditional advantage against southpaws. For his MLB career, he has 39 point advantage in batting average against LHP, and during his most recent MiLB stint, he hit .395 against lefties.
Second, Cunningham is almost a year and a half younger than LaPorta, which, to my mind, means he has more time to (im)prove himself. Players rarely develop new skills after they turn 27, which is where LaPorta is now. In other words, I see more upside in Cunningham at this point in their respective careers.
Finally, Cunningham is out of minor league options, meaning that if the team wants to keep him in the organization, they’ll have to keep him on the active, 25-man roster out of Spring Training. LaPorta, on the other hand, still has one option year left, which I have to imagine will be exercised thoroughly in 2012. Make of this difference what you will, but I think it means that Cunningham is more likely than LaPorta to be on the opening day roster, which, last I checked, is a prerequisite for being the team’s first baseman.
I’m not sure I’m ready to commit to one of these guys at this point. After all, that’s what Spring Training is for, right? Maybe Cunningham lights it up and makes the decision easy. Maybe injuries settle things without a fight. Maybe Carlos Lee comes cheaper than we thought possible, and makes all this hand-wringing moot.
But if forced to choose right now?
Have at it.
11 Comments
On LaPorta, I’ve been a big fan of the guy for a while now. I’ve gotta say, I don’t know that he’s coming out of this one. His swing was waaaay out of whack last time I saw him (AAA game). Weight transfer was all off, and it looked he was swinging with only his arms many times.
Funny thing is, he still launched one over the CF fence in that game. He also grounded out weakly in every other AB though.
If he’s going to make it back, he probably needs to re-tool his entire swing. Kind of start from step 1 and work his way back. That’s worked for some guys (Alex Gordon comes to mind first).
I don’t think it would be wise for the Indians to give up on LaPorta just yet, but if he’s still showing the weak out of balance swing in the spring, he has no business at all playing 1B in the majors. Ship him to AAA and let him work out the kinks there.
I still believe that a good hitting coach could fix LaPorta’s mechanics and turn him into a poor mans Michael Young. When Matt isnt flailing away and trying to pull everything, he’s got very good power to center and right field. Ive seen him take pitches on the outside part of the plate and drive them out of the park with short compact swings. Unlike Andy Marte, who was just awful, you do see the potential with LaPorta, even if its only brief glimpses here and there.
I’d have to go with the least evil of them all like when voting for president. I’ll take Cunningham.
I’d completely tear down Laporta and rebuild his swing.
Aside from LaPorta’s mechanics he always seems to end up behind in the count leaving him in a defensive position at the plate.
E) Santana at First, Marson at Catcher
I think LaPorta’s injuries have affected him to the point where he’ll never be the hitter we hoped he could be. The hip surgery really set back any progress he was making and he wasn’t too bad before the ankle injury last year.
Heck, I want LaPorta, Chiz and Brantley all to start in Columbus provided Sizemore, Choo, Hannahan and anybody at first is healthy. i’d like to see if Derek Lee is a possible. Let them bat 1, 3, 4 down there and really work on their games. Call up if they light a fire. Each has holes, needs to toughen up. Brantley needs work in center, on basepath, driving balls, Chiz just more seasoning but he’s never hit over .280 in minors. Right now Hannahan is better in field than Chiz and he finished the year with a lot of bop in his bat. On the scrap pile if Jose Lopez doesn’t work, and Kouz is still available, get him, he has better glove than people think, but they need to go into year with another right handed bat that can drive ball. And snag grounders.
Can we just have the pitcher hit instead of the 1B?
Look at Cunningham’s splits on the road. San Diego might be the toughest hitters park in the majors.
Well written JS.
Wow. I scrolled through the names in bold, and I couldn’t even read the piece because I was so dissapointed in our options. I thought this post might have something to do with free ageant options. Go… Tribe?