May 16, 2012

Tribe News: Kotchman, Pena, D Lee, or El Caballo? First Base Options Galore

January 11, 2012 By 17 Comments

Do you all get the feeling that I write one of the pieces every single week? Its probably because I do!

When we last spoke about the Indians on-going search for a middle of the order bat, things seemed to be veteran first baseman Carlos Pena. With the turn of each calendar day inching us closer and closer to Spring Training, some sort of decision has to be made. There are three first base options in free agency that appear to be targets for the Indians: Pena, Derrek Lee (whom we also discussed last week), and the latest to be linked to the Tribe – Casey Kotchman.

According to Jon Heyman on CBS Sports, “Pena and Kotchman are the most likely offensive options for the Indians.” Include Lee, and you could truly make a case for all three to be the Indians best move. All three are plus-defenders, with Pena and Lee both former Gold Glove winners. Pena, 33, has the most pure power, averaging 34 homers over the past five seasons. Kotchman, 28, is the youngest of the three and is the best contact hitter (just 66 K’s in 563 plate appearances in 2011). Lee, 36, is the one right-handed bat of the trio and still has pop.

All three have their shortcomings as well.

Pena is a windmill in a lineup full of strikeout guys. I wrote it last week, but it has to be repeated – Pena has averaged 158 K’s in each of the past five years. He also has serious issues hitting left-handed pitching. He is a career .210 hitter against southpaws, including a horrific .133 (16-120) last season for the Cubs. So if you bring in Pena, its in a strict platoon situation. Of the three, he would cost the most.

Kotchman was a one-time top prospect in the Angels system who was traded to the Braves in 2008 as part of the Mark Teixiera trade. He was dealt twice more, in 2009 to Red Sox for Adam Laroche, and in 2010 to the Seattle Mariners for Bill Hall and a player to be named later. He has always been more of an “average/OBP” guy than a run producer. Kotchman’s best RBI season came in 2008 with the Angels and the Braves when he had 74. He had a a lull in his career while trying to find a permanent home. 2011 was a renaissance season for him when he took over for Pena, ironically, as the Tampa Bay Rays first baseman. He hit .306 with an OBP of .378 and an OPS of .800 – all career highs. However, he had just 10 homers and 48 RBIs in 500 at-bats. That is not inspiring to me considering the Indians lack of power. He would, however, come the cheapest of the three options – his peak career salary was in 2010 when he made $3.5 million.

Lee is known as one of the best clubhouse guys in the game. That said, he is clearly at the tail end of his career at age 37. His best power years are behind him. After hitting 35 homers for the Cubs and Braves in 2009, injuries robbed him the last two years. Yes, he hit 19 last year with the Pirates and the Orioles and finished strong in Pittsburgh (.337/.398/.902/7 homers/18 RBIs in 28 games), but how much does he have left? The Indians expressed early interest in Lee after he declined arbitration with the Pirates (which would have netted him at least the $7 million he made last year), but reports are that the Lee camp’s feelings were not mutual.

So where does this leave us?

I’m guessing that the Tribe will end up getting that veteran to play first base on a one-year deal for 2012. I cannot see them entering the season with the Shelley Duncan/Carlos Santana/Matt LaPorta triangle of options. Though the talk has quieted down a tad, I still think the Indians will kick the tires on Houston’s Carlos Lee, if his price can come down a bit more. Of these four options, here is how I rank them in terms of who I think fits best with this team:

1. Carlos Lee – Played 79 games at first base in Houston last year. Averaging over 100 RBIs in each of the last five seasons. Houston desperately wants to dump the final year of his $18 million contract. Most importantly, he is RIGHT-HANDED.

2. Carlos Pena – Yes, he is a strikeout machine. Yes, he cannot hit lefties. But his power in undeniable and he can pick it at first. Will be a big help with the bevy of ground-ball guys in the rotation.

3. Derrek Lee – I think the savvy vet has one good season left in him. Would provide that 2007 Trot Nixon-like presence in the clubhouse. Again, right-handed makes him more exciting to me.

4. Casey Kotchman – I don’t buy him. He’s coming off his best year in a career that hasn’t lived up to expectations. He is a contact guy  who plays solid defense which makes him attractive, but I think he has maxed out as a player.

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  • Anonymous

    I still say to just go and sign Magglio Ordonez, put him in LF and try Brantley at 1B (and he’ll likely have plenty of time to play OF with Mags and Grady likely to spend some time on the DL).

    Just look:
    What would make him attractive is his sheer dominance against left-handed pitchers. Last
    year he posted a .292/.331/.385 line against southpaws. That was actually a “down year” for
    Ordonez. In his career, he has posted a .327/.386/.553 line against lefties.

    from: http://www.dailycatchsports.com/2012/01/06/heres-an-idea-braves-should-sign-magglio-ordonez/

  • USSChoo

    Can we stop using RBIs in a way that makes them seem meaningful? Why not give us their slugging numbers instead? Or at least 2B and HR numbers.

  • Anonymous

    I agree with your rankings. However, sadly, the rankings of the likelihood that the tribe will sign each is probably flipped.

  • Josh

    Amen. Why are we still using meaningless stats to evaluate players.

    Of the guys above, Id take Pena, then CLee, then DLee, then anyone else, then Kotchman. I’d MUCH rather have another year of Laporta than awful Kotchman.

    Mg’s idea of Magglio is interesting, other than Brantley playing first. Laporta is currently a superior hitter to Brantely, has played the position, and has a MUCH higher ceiling as a hitter. If Brantley plays more than a handful of games at first this year someone needs to lose their job. That’s unacceptable on a contending team.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t understand your hate for Brantley.  I thought he was playing decent before he injured his wrist. 

  • Josh

    I don’t hate Brantley. As a LF playing above average defense, I like him quite a bit. As a 1B playing the position for the first time ever, no thanks.

  • kjn

    These vets don’t land until Prince does. Prince doesn’t land until the Rangers sign Darvish.

    I still think we ultimately end up Carlos Lee (or nobody). Whatever the price tag, it is just one year. All these other vets will be looking at multiple years. This front office has shown no desire to enter into long term contracts when they don’t have to.

  • kjn

    I don’t think it’s hate for Brantley, just the realization that his bat isn’t good enough to justify playing him at first. A good portion of his value comes from his defense in the outfield.

  • Shamrock

    Do something already sheesh it seems like forever since they got Lowe. I like either of the Lee’s. On a side note it’ll be interesting to see where Prince lands. I’m hoping Texas wanna see him battle Pujols in same division again.

  • Steve

    TD is a long way away from that. Strikeouts matter to him, because, well, we don’t know exactly why, but seemingly because they’re frustrating to watch. Forget the offensive supply the player brings in the rest of his at-bats.

    Also, and this isn’t just a TD thing, though its the only other point he really gets to in these Indians articles. The bat the Indians sign almost has to be right-handed to so many people. Yes, sticking a RH bat in the middle of our LH hitters looks nice. But the Indians also hit LHers almost as well as they hit RHers last year. Again, we’re looking at cosmetics more than results. If the Indians, who faced a righty in 2/3rds of their PAs last year decide that there is more to gain by adding a career .883 OPS bat against RHP to their lineup than to worry about 1/3 of their PAs or strikeouts, well, then I just happen to agree with them. While many people in this town don’t seem to want to understand this, but this team isn’t the Yankees, getting to pick and choose which nearly-perfect players they want. But if a guy who can give very good production for almost 500 PAs, like Carlos Pena did last year, but is undervalued because people find a couple weaknesses in his game, the Indians need to jump all over that.

  • USSChoo

    Brantley definitely has experience at first, just not since AA where he saw 21 games there, so it isn’t like the position is new. It is true, however, that Brantley’s bat isn’t good enough to play first. Not as a solution to the problem. But neither is LaPorta’s.

  • Anonymous

    one note on SOs.  while they don’t matter that much in looking back at what the overall offensive value they may have provided, they can matter a great deal when you are talking about players in their 30s whose bat speeds start declining.

    if you strike out alot when you have your optimum bat speed, then you are going to strike out even more when you don’t.

    and, SOs to pitchers are plays that they cannot possibly give up a hit.  well, SOs to batters are plays that they cannot possibly get a hit.  so, they matter a bit there too.

    yes, we are looking at a bunch of flawed players and trying to figure out which one is the least flawed (or which flaws will work best with our team).  still, it’s important to note those flaws.

  • Steve

    I agree not to ignore strikeouts, but you have to view them in the entirety of the player’s ability. If 30 homers and 100 walks come fairly cheap because people are moaning that you whiff instead of grounding out to 2B, then I’m going to snatch that up quickly. And, in the case of Pena, strikeouts are about more than bat speed. The take and rake approach that, which brings about those HRs and BBs are a big factor, I would argue much bigger than his bat speed.

    It’s important to note the flaws, but not to harp over them, as TD is doing here.

  • DeeP

    Am I the only one that sees Brantley having a breakout year?

    Also, I’m not ready to scrap LaPorta yet….his minor numbers are too strong.

  • Anonymous

    fair enough.  though I think TD understands that too.  it’s tough to write about the same subject 5 different times w/o anything changing :)

  • kjn

    I still don’t think Brantley is ever going to see any real time at 1B this season. I think that was just the front office tossing a loyal beat reporter a bone during a slow, uneventful off-season.

  • Tjuliojr

    Carlos Lee is the best option. He hits homers, drives in runs and does not strikeout like most sluggers do.  Get him.