May 16, 2012

WFNY 2012 Draft Not-so-Big Board 1.4

January 26, 2012 By 25 Comments

Heading in to the 2011-12 season, we figured we would get the ball rolling on some admittedly early NBA Draft talk. Unless the 7-10 Cavaliers shock the world (150/1 odds as NBA Champion, bettering only Toronto entering this season), it is widely assumed that the team will be selecting fairly early in the lottery once again. That said, we’re going to provide WFNY readers with some thoughts on who should be a target of Chris Grant come this spring.

We are slowly accumulating larger samples of these top-flight NBA prospects. We will update this not-so-big board on a bi-weekly basis – feel free to comment, critique or debate in the comments below.  We have a little more shake-up this week following some excellent NCAA contests.

Do enjoy.

_____________

  Player   Thoughts
1 Harrison Barnes, SG (North Carolina)   The points continue to pile up in droves. Though he did put up a 2-for-12 outing against the Hurricanes of Miami, Barnes followed up with a 15 and 5 game in the tough loss to Florida State and a 27 and 6 game – with three steals – against the Hokies of Virginia Tech. He’s hitting the occasional three-ball and getting to the line (10-of-12 against VT), showing increased levels of aggression as the season wears on. The rebounds are an excellent bonus from the 6-foot-8-inch swingman and, save for any complete collapse, should have him firmly planted as the top wing on Chris Grant’s draft board.
       
2 Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)   One NSBB later and Davis is one spot higher. Some will want to point out that he put up a relative clunker against Georgia – not so fast. The clunker was against Alabama one game earlier. The Bulldogs saw Davis pull down 11 more boards and block five more shots, just two games after he put up 27 points, 14 rebounds and seven blocks (!!!) against the Razorbacks. Davis is still pretty much a lock to go first overall this summer, so the Cavs may not be faced with the decision to pass on him for the sake of a pure center or a wing. This could be the best news yet as the kid keeps getting better.
       
3 Andre Drummond, C (Connecticut)   Drummond’s rough shooting nights coupled with Davis’ All-World outing against Arkansas move him down to the third spot. The boards and blocks continue to be there, but for a kid who is supposed to be the best pure center in the last handful of drafts, Drummond surely isn’t showing the fire and desire to dominate that I would have hoped to see by this point in the season. That said, he’s 6-feet-10, 270 pounds and growing; the Cavaliers will undoubtedly need an upgrade at center within the next two-to-three seasons. It would be very tough to pass on the Huskie big man if he’s there on draft day.
       
4 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SG (Kentucky)   If Kidd-Gilchrist’s offensive dynamism would improve, he’d essentially be the 1A to Harrison Barnes’ 1.  It’s difficult to watch this kid play and not picture him in a Cavaliers’ jersey. He does it all – scores, plays lock-down defense, and crashes the boards at any given opportunity. And, if you haven’t read it here over the last few weeks, MCG’s work ethic continues to keep his name in the discussion with the top-five potential draftees. Thankfully, as it appears now, the Cavs could still land Kidd-Gilchrist if in the six-to-eight range if that is indeed how it unfolds. Not a bad consolation prize for a few extra wins.
       
5 Jeremy Lamb, SG (Connecticut)   When we last left Jeremy Lamb, he was dropping 25 points on the West Virginia Mountaineers. This past weekend, the athletic swingman followed up that showing with 23 points, three rebounds a block, two three-balls and a steal in the tough loss to the Tennessee Volunteers. I’ve had a lot of discussion about Lamb compared to others who I presently rank below him and as of right now, Lamb’s spot on this board is due to his athleticism and ceiling in addition to his insane ability to put the basketball through the rim from nearly every spot on the floor. As of now, I’ll take the athletic Lamb over any of his would-be rivals.

A few more thoughts on…

Bradley Beal, SG (Florida): He’s getting the mention here as he’s the kid most are comparing to Lamb, rounding out the top tier of wing players in which Barnes poses as the archetype. I’ve heard some Eric Gordon comparisons which could be legitimate but also a bit of a burden as Gordon’s chief criticism is his size. That said, he also has a year on Lamb who had to spend a year in Kemba Walker’s shadow so if age is your thing, it’s not far-fetched to have Beal ahead of Lamb.

Quincy Miller, SF (Baylor): Welcome back into the fold, we’ve missed you. Miller has essentially disappeared with Perry Jones III coming off of his suspension, but decided to put up three straight excellent games prior to fading back into the abyss against Oklahoma.  The kid is 6-f00t-9, is an underrated rebounder and has drained at least one three-pointer in five straight games. Inconsistency will be his downfall, but the kid has potential.

Fab Melo, C (Syracuse): Just because he’s seven feet tall and from Brazil – we like that combination around these parts. Unfortunately, academic issues have forced the bruising big man into ineligibility and could loft his draft status into the realm of unknown as he has long been thought to be coming back next season. He’s incredibly raw on the offensive end and would not win any awards when it comes to basketball IQ. But, in the end, he’s still seven feet tall and that buys you a chance when it comes to the NBA.

Lucas “Bebe” Noguiera, C (Brazil): Also, because he’s seven feet tall and from Brazil. Bebe was on the radar of a lot of Cavalier fans last season before he decided to withdraw his name from the mix. Likely a first-rounder last season, Noguiera may decide to stay in Brazil for yet another year while he works on his game. He recently recorded an 11-point, five-rebound, four-steal game in a U19 tournament in Italy; this, one game after a five-rebound, four-block effort in the same camp. Still a great long-term prospect, but still very young and very raw.

Required Viewing:

1/26 North Carolina State at (8) North Carolina – 7p EST, ESPN
1/26 (13) Florida at Ole Miss – 7p EST, ESPN2
1/28 Texas at (7) Baylor – 1p EST, CBS
1/29 (22) Michigan at (3) Ohio State - 1p EST, CBS
2/1 (19) Connecticut at (10) Georgetown – 7p EST, ESPN2
2/4 (8) North Carolina at Maryland – 4p EST, ESPN
2/4 (1) Kentucky at South Carolina – 6p EST, ESPN
2/4 (5) Kansas at (2) Missouri – 9p EST, ESPN

Previous Not-so-Big Boards:

Not-so-Big Board 1.3
Not-so-Big Board 1.2
Not-so-Big Board 1.1
Not-so-Big Board: 1.0

Filed Under: Cavaliers Tagged With: , , ,
  • DonDelco_OBR

    Ooh, basketball big board. I like.

    I’d go with Andre Drummond. A big man who could work with Irving. Plus, Drummond lends itself to endless Diff’rent Strokes references. And that makes me happy.

  • Nicko

    With how the Cavaliers season is going, might have to push the Big Board not to include the top 5 guys and start focusing on the next level of players…

  • porkchopxpress

    I love the DNSBB Scott thanks!

    I fully respect your Barnes opinion but until I see him throw his team on his back in the tournament, drive to the basket at will, and drain clutch shots, I’m ranking him as biggest bust potential in the class.   He just reminds me of one of those Ferrari skins you could buy in the 80s and slap on the frame of a Fiero.  Looks great sitting in a lot, just don’t ask it to perform.

    Just from a pure fan prospective I don’t know how Thomas Robinson hasn’t made your board.  All he does is throw 20+ 10′s up every night, and  he demolished Perry Jones in head to head.   He’s kinda Tim Duncanesque (style of play not talent level).  Plays great with his back to the basket, gets good rebounding position.  Next to Lamb he would be my favorite to end up in Wine and Gold even if he is sort of redundant on T2. 

  • Anonymous

    drummond is the biggest potential bust in this draft because he is bigger :)

    if Drummond figures out how to be aggressive, he’d be my favorite.  as it stands, I’d want MKG, Lamb, and then Barnes (in that order -  Barnes might have that switch to turn on at some point like last year, but don’t we want a guy whose switch is stuck “on”?)

    agreed that Thomas Robinson should be somewhere on the list, but he’s going to be a PF and we ‘need’ SG/SF/C more (though that can change quickly and if he’s the BPA, then we should take him)

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/ Scott @ WFNY

    Good call. 2.0 will include current draft position.

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/ Scott @ WFNY

    Exactly. Robinson has gotten some love in past NSBBs, but I’m operating under the assumption that Cs and wings get a boost in CGs eyes.

  • BrownsFanSF

    Bigs in the NBA are like the defensive line in the NFL.  Everyone forgets you need them until the Giants upset the Packers (or Mavs upset the Heat).  If Drummond is a legit big that can ball (or at least rebound and play defense), you simply have to take him.  You can find Anthony Morrow/Norris Cole level wings all over the place. 

  • Anonymous

    but, what if Drummond isn’t a legit big?  or what if he isn’t a legit big yet?  he could be another Kwame type situation that he is a pretty good player for his 2nd team.

    if we think one of the wings are elite and Drummond is just a good big man prospect, then we should go with the elite.   we have to land a player for Irving to grow with.

  • Anonymous

    Love MKG. We need a stud SG…bad. 
     

  • Anonymous

    It is a good point, but we need to go BPA unless it is a PG. I don’t want to reach for a big just because we really want a big. If Barnes or MKG is still there we have to take them.

  • Bulldogs 3

    No Sullinger?

  • Anonymous

    Nope, no power forwards.

  • Anonymous

    Agreed… I think my order is the same as mgbode… I think we’re going to get lucky in that someone is going to grab Harrison Barnes before we can get him.  I watched him play in that VT game and he had some good moments, but he mostly just got hot shooting 3-pointers and against better opponents (yes I’m dogging my own college team here), he doesn’t seem to do much of anything besides launch 3-pointers and long 2s.  We need a SG or SF who can finish in traffic and get himself to the free throw line as well as hit long shots.  Young players can be taught to shoot better, but I haven’t found many who were good shooters and then learned how to get to the free throw line.

  • REEPJP

    I was in Knoxville visiting my brother in law this past weekend and we caught the Tenn v. UConn game on Saturday.  I was VERY impressed with Lamb, the kid can shoot (and make) from anywhere on the court. I was convinced he was going to drain a 3 at the buzzer to send the game into OT.  Drummond had his moments, but didn’t stick out to me as being someone who should go in the top 5 or even 10 based on how he plays right now.  Like you said though, being a 7 footer alone will get you in the first round (see Mullins, BJ), so a little talent and you’re top 10.

    Finally, the kid that was the most impressive to me was the Freshman from UT, Jarnell Stokes.  Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s eligible for this years draft.  The kid graduated from High School in December, enrolled at UT after the first of the year, practiced a few days and is now starting and averaging 10.5 pts and 8.5 reb. in 4 games.

  • Anonymous

    i don’t know if Barnes will go earlier when all is said and done.  look at all the opinions here.  we all think Barnes is over-rated and that MKG is under-rated.  even Scott hints at that and he’s the one that put the ratings there.

    for player comp’s:

    Barnes – Ray Allen
    MKG – Gerald Wallace / Andre Iguodala

    I think that’s where the rankings come in as they are.  People watch Barnes at his best and see that Ray Allen in him.  Heck, with the right team, he might become a similar type player.    Watch MKG and you see G-Force and Iggy.  Both guys who are HUGE blue-collar workers for their teams, but not stars.   The problem is MKG is pretty much assured to get near their status.  He’s hard working, has the build, and the athleticism of those guys.   Barnes is hit-or-miss on whether he gets there (I’m worried he will struggle with NBA defenders getting physical with him).

    not out of the realm to think that MKG will surpass Barnes by June.

  • BrownsFanSF

    You guys are definitely both right.  Without a doubt the Cavs need to take the best player available for their system.  Measuring the best player available is tough though.  Sure Lamb or Barnes may put up high teens in points as a rookie and open up the offense a bit.  But a player like Drummond could put up ten and 8 and change the game way more than a perimeter player.

    Bigs are tough to find, seems like you either have the talent and not the intangibles  (Cousins/Bynum) or the intangibles and not the talent (Perk, Hansbrough).  Unfortunately if Drummond is a sure thing, he isn’t going to be hanging around at the 7th or 8th pick anyway

  • Anonymous

    i get where you are coming from.  in the Central in particular, it seems that it’s getting to be a tough division for 5s.   Monroe and Hibbert look to be real and there’s still Bogut (when healthy) and Noah (he’s been bad this year though – AV has usurped him for now).

    i want to like Drummond, but he just never seems to be that impressive.  that’s all.  again, as you mention, he’ll likely be someone else’s pick anyway.

  • Chucky Brown

    nice

  • Anonymous

    I don’t personally see a Ray Allen type of player when I watch Harrison Barnes, and stat-wise Allen was a good bit better in college when you compare their seasonal averages… Allen had more PPG, better shooting percentages, more rebounds, more assists, etc.  He was also the undisputed focal point of his team’s offense whereas Barnes seems to be more of a cog in the total UNC offense.  He doesn’t really create his own shots.  Again, this is purely my opinion, but I see him panning out more like a rich man’s Dorell Wright.  And that’s pretty useful, but it’s not Gerald Wallace or Andre Iguodala.

  • steve-o

    Right now the Cavs are more likely to miss the lottery all together than they are to get a top five player. Considering how weak the Eastern conference is right now, and the fact that our young team should continue to improve, the path to the 8th seed is clearing for us. Of course, trades or injuries could change all that.

  • Anonymous

    I agree that he isn’t likely to get that high.  I was just saying that is his ceiling and you can see it in the glimpses when his game is “on.”  The quick, silky release and the way he can flow in an offense and somehow get lost by the defense despite them focusing on him.

    but, he doesn’t show that side nearly enough.

  • Shamrock

    Paired with Irving that would be an amazing backcourt.  Pick up a big man or two via free agency.

  • BrownsFanSF

    I feel ya man, I kinda feel the same way about Barnes.  I keep hearing he is good and I want him to be the answer, but every time I try to watch Carolina he just seems to kinda coast.  Maybe it’s because I’m a Dukie :)

  • Anonymous

    it’s not just you.  see the back-n-forth with me and VP above. 

  • porkchopxpress

    I just saw injuries did change the picture, Bogut is going miss time.  Right now we need the Knicks/Bucks to get good just to keep us out of the playoffs.  By my count there is no way we are finishing worse than 6th and most likely we are going to be in that 9-13 range.  Still, this is that draft where someone real good could fall, there are 8-10 legitimate players already coming out and that doesn’t include, the Austin River’s who haven’t decided, and the Euros.