NFL Draft: The Browns can’t win a bidding war

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It might be the most obvious thing ever, but it seems that we’ve been talking a lot of hypothetical game theory lately. The Browns are in a position of strength and if you were to believe the pundits around the sports world, they also seemingly don’t have enough to get a trade done with the Rams.  We’ve heard rumors of the Redskins giving up their entire draft this year as well as multiple picks next year. We’ve heard that the Browns might need to trade three overall first rounders (two this year and one in 2013) in order to entice the Rams into giving them the #2.  (Yes, I know some of you prefer to look at it like two first rounders and a swap of #4 and #2.  Whatever.) How is it that the Browns could be in a bidding war and yet have a position of strength?

Let’s talk a bit about the Browns’ options. What is the worst thing that can happen if the Browns do nothing at all? Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Matt Kalil, Justin Blackmon, Morris Claiborne, Trent Richardson, and Riley Reiff are all in contention for the top four. I would say that Reiff and Richardson are longshots for the top four, but they’re certainly going to be somewhere nearby on most draft boards. (Although Richardson is falling fast, it seems.) Point being that if the Browns do not make any kind of trade, they will get one of these guys. More important is what the Rams get.

I know many have been talking about this around Twitter for weeks, but the Rams are drafting second because they have a lot of needs. They need offensive line help for Sam Bradford. They could use a target in the receiving game. The Rams need cornerbacks. Steven Jackson isn’t getting any younger with his 2200 career attempts rushing the ball. If I had to guess though, the Rams much like every other NFL team, would love to have that left tackle. Matt Kalil is as much of a sure thing as anyone in this draft and maybe more. What does this mean for the Browns?

The Browns are the only team that the Rams can trade with and still even have a remote chance at landing Matt Kalil. Chances are that the Vikings will take him at #3, but there is also a good chance that the Vikings could take wide receiver Justin Blackmon. The bottom line is that the Rams are taking something of a risk if they trade down any farther than #4. The Rams would prefer to trade with the Browns, yet if they engage in speculation with other teams they can drive the price up.

They can only drive the price up if the Browns seem willing to pay though. I am quite happy to hear the Browns play it cool in public with regard to Griffin even if it leads to some uncomfortable talk about being “confused” as to what to do with such a dynamic player. Let’s all just think happy thoughts and assume the Browns are avoiding a crazy bidding war for the #2 pick.

The Browns can only lose if they engage in a bidding war as a result. If the Browns are interested in trading, they are competing with a group of people that don’t have as much bargaining power. Still, the Rams can use that desperation to inflate the market for the pick. If it turns into an auction situation the only winner is going to be the Rams as they take home massive amounts of picks. Actually, the other winner will be the team that doesn’t end up pulling off the deal as they won’t pay far too much for the right to draft second overall this year. Let’s hope the Browns win either by trading and not paying too much or just sitting this out and taking two solid players in the first round this year.

 

  • mgbode

    I think it can work either way.  As long as you pick the right QB AND the right pieces to build your team.

  • mgbode

    with his speed, he could be our PR :)

  • mgbode

    the Packers have to be put into the exception category too.  they were a perennial playoff team with offensive playmakers and made the transition from Favre to Rodgers.  they have added pieces, but they have always done that.  they didn’t really “build around Rodgers”  they plugged him into the system.

    the rest I agree with (as Pitt rebuilt their offense around Ben after the 1st SB).

  • Roosevelt

    I just wanted to post a  reply here

  • steve-o

    Agreed. We are the team that the Rams most want to trade with. The problem is that Dan Snyder is nuts and could package an offer that would make Ditka look like a miser. I think it boils down to one thing; if the Skins win the Peyton Manning sweepstakes then we also win the RG3 sweepstakes.

  • MrCleaveland

     Oh, now I get it. See you tomorrow. Like the Factory of Sadness guy.

  • reservoirdan

    Thanks for “reductionalistic” – best made up word I’ve read all week.

  • DHawk

    Selling out our draft and possibly next years draft to move up two spaces worries me for the simple fact that with our talent level, RG3’s tendencies are going to be to running early without reading coverage.

  • REEPJP

    I’m not jumping in the draft him/don’t draft him argument because I honestly don’t care or have any impact one way or the other….if they draft boom Herron at #4 and win lots of games I’m cool….

    One thing that WILL upset me though is if we trade up to two before the free agent dust has settled. I’m more and more liking the show no interest approach for a few weeks. What’s the best way to get a good price on a car? Walk off the lot the first time you talk to a salesman. What’s the best way to get a good price on those fake Oakleys in the Mexican flea market? Walk away and appear you don’t care that you aren’t going to get them. Same approach with the draft picks….STL needs/wants to trade that pick and we can offer the best hands down….it’s not like we’re trying to bribe them to give up something they don’t want to part with.

  • Ritz

    I am arguing if the Browns think he is elite they should go get him. I am not saying I think he will be elite, I honestly don’t have the expertise to know that.

  • Ritz

    I don’t know that #4 #22 and a second this year or next is selling out our draft. If its more than that then maybe it is.

  • Ritz

    Very true thanks for catching that. I think they truly have changed the play calling and offensive scheme to take advantage of Rogers, but many of the players were there and were good before he became the starter.

  • Ritz

    And then we can move Cribbs to QB, problem solved.

  • Kevin

    That’s the problem: IF RG3 is the stud we here about so much, then there is no price too high. But if the browns think he is good but they have some question marks they should design a strategy with a max price for the pick. and at no condition go above. So all it comes down to is the browns staff ability to evaluate players… and so far I think we can say we can trust H&H… but if they mortgage the future of the Franchise and RG3 is a bust OR if they don’t pull the trigger and RG3 is some kind of Elway…. the fanbase won’t forgive them (unless McCoy develops into a great player)

  • FGIII

     You guys are crazy.  Now that we finally have a chance to get the first franchise quarterback in 30 years you don’t want to pull the trigger.  You’ll be the same ones bitching when we still don’t have a quarterback next year and we go for 5 wins.  This guy has a chance to be a great franchise quarterback for the next 10 years for the Browns.  Everyone has a chance to be a bust, but you cannot pass this up because you’re scared.  If he’s as good as he is projected to be, it is well worth 4, 22, and next years 1.

  • FGIII

     LOL

  • FGIII

    Plus, look how good he looks in a Browns uniform LOL

  • mgbode

    re-sign Hillis and put him at QB.  we’ll have our very own Tebow

  • http://www.weberclean.com/ Carpet Cleaning Fargo ND

    I agree with RylnCbus. Who knows what Daniel Snyder is thinking. It is going to be quite interesting to see how this thing plays out 

  • Jfoust12

    You people who think the Browns should do what it takes to get RG3 are out of your minds. Who is he going to throw the ball to and who is going to protect him. He will do no better than McCoy did. The Browns have so many needs they can’t give up the house for one guy. They can address so many needs if they just .use the picks they have. They need a WR, RT,CB, LB snd maybe a RB if they loose Hillis. They can address those needs if they stay put. AMEN 

  • Jmartinjr8

    Has anybody thought about taking the Rams right out of the bidding, How about we deal our 4th for Washingtons 6th and their 2nd round pick. Washington gets RGIII, We have a monster draft with 2 firsts 2 seconds 1 third and 2 fourths, then the rest. If we still need a franchise QB, We sell the farm for Barclay next year. 7 picks in 4 rounds = 7 starters to fill holes and we are still way under cap for free agents. Lets do this!

  • Jmartinjr8

     Has anybody thought about taking the Rams right out of the bidding, How
    about we deal our 4th for Washingtons 6th and their 2nd round pick.
    Washington gets RGIII, We have a monster draft with 2 firsts 2 seconds 1
    third and 2 fourths, then the rest. If we still need a franchise QB, We
    sell the farm for Barclay next year. 7 picks in 4 rounds = 7 starters
    to fill holes and we are still way under cap for free agents. Lets do
    this!