May 18, 2013

While We’re Waiting… Building the Cavs, Small market risks and Browns running game ‘mediocre’ at best

While We’re Waiting serves as the early morning gathering of WFNY-esque information for your viewing pleasure. Have something you think we should see? Send it to our tips email at tips@waitingfornextyear.com.

“Many of these teams drafted poorly, but the ratio of “teams that built contenders from lottery scratch” to “teams that did not” is really lopsided. The lottery is a crap shoot, starting with the need to get your ping pong balls vacuumed out of glass sphere. Add that to projecting the future exploits of 19 year olds, and the result is pretty frequently continued mediocrity. Speaking of, there is another young NBA contender built through the draft.

The Chicago Bulls are not a “lottery success story” in any easily definable way. From 2000 – 2007, the Bulls picked #4, #9, #2, #4, #2, #7, #3, #7, #2 and #9. Where did that leave them? Back in the lottery, as a 33 – 49 team. Fate smiled on them and with a 1.7% chance to win the lottery, they were able to add Derrick Rose, who became the youngest MVP in league history. Besides the fact it took ten years, that’s pretty irreproducible. Luckily for Cleveland, Irving came with the first dip into the lottery.” [Hetrick/Cavs the Blog]

“You will hear some people say that the way Varejao plays makes him more susceptible to injuries like the wrist injury he suffered on Friday. These people are being idiots. EVERY big man in the league is susceptible to injury. Every NBA big man of any consequence has suffered at least one injury that has cost him major chunks of a season, and guys like Dwight Howard and LaMarcus Aldridge who have avoided them in their first several season in the league will suffer one eventually.” [Curry/Cavs HQ]

Good stuff on small market teams having to take risks. My one liner take-away? Try this, the last time anyone spent more than the Yankees on payroll for a season? Try 1998. Fourteen consecutive years of having the highest payroll in baseball. Think they are relinquishing that anytime soon? [Passan/Yahoo]

Analyzing the Browns running game. “This means that, although their offensive line can best be described as “mediocre,” their backs can best be described as “pedestrian,” which isn’t ideal when you have the word “running” in your job title. The SLY and OFY figures were slightly better in 2010, when Peyton Hillis was healthy, happy and having a breakout year. But the differences are slight, and the Hillis ship almost certainly will be sailing out of Lake Erie this offseason.

If and when that happens, it will leave Montario Hardesty and Chris Ogbonnaya in the Browns’ backfield, along with a player to be named later. Although we prefer not to rank running backs with fewer than 100 carries, Ogbonnaya was clearly the more valuable of the two in their limited opportunities.” [Tuccitto/Football Outsiders] (ESPN Insider needed)

 

  • Anonymous

    So we have Hardesty and Ogbonnaya, what about Brandon Jackson? Are we giving up on him? I thought he had a chance to contribute.

  • Anonymous

    I would expect B-Jax to make the team (if healthy).  I would expect either Hillis to re-sign or to bring in another RB1.   And, I expect Hardesty and Ogbonnaya to fight for the RB2 slot (RB3 = 3rd down back to me and that’s BJAX’s job).

  • Anonymous

    I understand the basis of the first 4/5 of that Cavs article, but the conclusion is all wrong.  Yes, there are obstacles building even when drafting high and it does not guarantee success.  It may take years and years to do it.

    But, that does not mean it is not bad for the Cavs to end up drafting #11.  It doesn’t mean it is good to avoid it either.  In fact, all the writing he did above it had very little to do to come to a logical conclusion on that point.  The “real” way to come to that conclusion would be to analyze the success rates at each slot of the draft.  However, there are alot of flaws to even doing that (small sample size, the pool of players available has changed drastically at least 3 times in the last 10 years, and each draft is different).

    what it really comes down to is having a FO that is smart and able to see what players have the chance to be stars even if they aren’t yet (Westbrook out of UCLA), finding role players who can have ceilings to expand (Hibbert), and making smart trades to take advantage of circumstances on other teams (Green for Perkins, Collison trade).

    the Pacers are probably the better blueprint from the Cavs perspective because alot had to happen just right for the Thunder (Durant being there, getting all those extra high picks that teams hold onto tighter now, etc.).

  • Jay

    From what I’ve been hearing (well, reading) lately, Washington wants to move to #2 to get RG3. That would probably allow Richardson to fall to the Browns at 4 and I think you definitely take him there. He’s (imho of course) one of those ‘can-t miss’ backs that could be a starter from day one.

  • Jay

    All that of course referring to Hills not coming back.