The Sweet 16 and the NBA Draft: Florida, Kansas, Michigan State, Indiana
March 22, 2012NBA News: Ryan Hollins to Sign with Boston Celtics
March 22, 2012First of all, this is supposed to be at least somewhat realistic, so take that draft day trade with the Colts out of your minds. That isn’t even remotely possible, so I’m not going to entertain it. By the way, neither is Robert Griffin III dropping to the Browns.
With that, I think it is important to look at how big this draft is going to be in a non-abstract kind of way. So many people (especially this guy) have a tough time envisioning just how powerful it will be for the Browns to add at least three starters over the course of draft weekend. So let me paint a few scenarios using The OBR’s stupendous Mock Draft Muncher, which summarizes a great number of mock drafts into a consensus. The picks will never land exactly like these scenarios, but it is still as good a way as any to illustrate a point today.
Before I get to the dream scenario, let’s look at some of the base cases.
This is the case that the Muncher lays out right now. It would have the Browns adding RB Trent Richardson, WR Kendall Wright and QB Brandon Weeden in the first three picks. I don’t love the idea of drafting Brandon Weeden, but the rest seems nice. Some consider Richardson a reach, but he’s the best running back in the draft and he will be touching the ball 20 times per game, presumably. I could buy into that for a team that struggled so much running the ball last season. Right there you’ve added a starting running back, a wide receiver who will play lots and a mature quarterback that will at least push Colt McCoy in training camp.
Next, let’s do the alternate base case. This is just slightly different than the Muncher based on second-place choices. The Browns would get Trent Richardson, QB Ryan Tannehill, and WR Mohamed Sanu from Rutgers. Again, it is instructive to see all those names together to see what it would actually do to the training camp roster in terms of filling it out with prospective starters. I am not sold on the Tannehill pick just yet, but the Browns would be adding to that “pile” as Holmgren likes to say. Additionally, they would still be adding the best running back and a top ten wide receiver.
Now for my dream scenario. This one puts a smile on my face. The Vikings take Morris Claiborne 3rd which drops Kalil to the Browns at #4. The Browns trade that to the Rams so they can take Kalil. The Browns pick 6th and get the 39th pick in the second round that St. Louis got from Washington. So, the Browns trade down just a little bit to #6. Tampa Bay takes Justin Blackmon. The Browns still get Trent Richardson. They get WR Kendall Wright at #22. They get DE Andre Branch at #37. They then get OLB Zach Brown from UNC at #39.
If you want, an alternate to this could be #6 Justin Blackmon (assuming Tampa takes Richardson) and RB Lamar Miller from Miami at #22. Either way, the Browns have gone out and gotten a top prospect at running back who will carry the ball somewhere in the ballpark of 20 times per game in all likelihood. They will also be adding legit prospects to add to starters depth chart at wide receiver and potentially at linebacker and defensive end.
It may seem all very obvious, but for me it is important to sometimes put some names out there just to get a feel for what it will actually be like. While free agency is slipping by and the Browns are inactive, it starts to make sense as they’re going to be looking to add at least two and probably three or more starters to their roster on draft day. With the unpredictability of the draft though it sometimes makes free agency a bit more difficult. This is especially true for a team that isn’t planning on contending for the playoffs in the upcoming season.
That’s the other thing to keep in mind. The Browns are not trying to leap into Super Bowl contention this year, obviously. Additionally, all these picks are going to take cap space to sign and additional cap space to keep when they mature and hopefully become worthy of long-term second contracts.
Anyway, swap the names out as you will, but remember. The Browns are about to add at least three starters to the roster.
136 Comments
Exactly. Everyone needs to relax.
Well, Jim Brown won’t be walking through the Cleveland Browns’ collective “door” because Holmgren fired him.
But sure. I get your point.
Considering my comment from two years ago has little, if anything, to do with the draft class at hand, that my opinions on all things NFL can be summarized with a dismissive wanking motion, and that I haven’t written here in almost two years, I think the notion of bringing up something I, the self-professed eternal spring of NFL draft wisdom, said back when the Browns drafted Robiskie out of college qualifies as a non-sequitur.
OH BUT WAIT THEY ARE MINUTELY TANGENTIALLY RELATED BECAUSE THE DRAFT IS AN ALL-FORGIVING UMBRELLA UNDER WHICH WE CAN RECALL THINGS THAT PEOPLE SAY BECAUSE PREDICTING THE NFL DRAFT AND ITS DRAFTEE OUTCOMES CORRECTLY IS THE FINAL STEP IN THE EIGHTFOLD PATH
Mostly, though, who cares what I say? I wrote articles about Colt McCoy being a Goober and Varejao’s enthusiasm and little orange bears; I’m not sure what the point is in showing how flawed my logic was. There’s no sensical reason to bring up something I said a while ago unless you’re just trying to start arguments. Which you’ve done. Cool. Probably won’t be back for a while, hope you enjoyed it.
Watch out, Craig – Five years down the road, I’ll hold you absolutely accountable for everything you said here.
Boy, must have hit him pretty close to the mark, eh?
Seriously, you’re taking this way to personally. Relax. Have a drink. I’ll even buy you one.
Of course, keep in mind that what you wrote was not tongue/cheek. You meant it as a reply to someone criticizing the draft. You provided a counter-argument on your interpretation of the facts on hand.
THIS IS A DRAFT THREAD, DENNY. Discussing past drafts and the comments elicited by them here is not a mortal sin and doesn’t mean anyone has started an argument. I am sure I promoted a guy at some point who sucks now too. We all do that.
What I was trying to do was point out that our draft suggestions here, however well intentioned, are ultimately conjecture and fallible. And, that even a (former) writer on this site could be wrong too.
Yipes, it’s Friday.
How dare anyone do such a thing! The unthinkable! The nerve! The gall of it all! Holding people to what they SAY? Quoting them, even? What has this world come to, where we can just quote people when they voluntarily make a claim after it turns out to be false and then expect to use that information to prove a point?
“O brave new world, with such people in it!”
(/sarcasm)
Are you really saying its wrong to quote anyone now? To use what someone voluntarily put forth as an idea as evidence for something else? In what universe is that line of thinking useful?
Just back away verrry slowly. Don’t make eye contact. No sudden movements. Put away the tempting treats. Get back in the car and drive away, as if nothing happened.
I think you need counseling.
i’m sick of turning to miss the iceburg. we should be in an USCGC Mackinaw (WLBB-30) so let’s plow through the dang thing. and, if it sinks the ship, then we can be done with it and build a new ship rather than having an inadequate one that we got lucky missed the iceberg.
That’s an awesome ship, by the way. What can’t that sucker cut through?
Continuing on your analogy, we don’t have the hull to plow through the iceburg. We just don’t have powerful enough players or a smart enough coach to go full throttle at this. If we did, I’d be all for this approach, but we just don’t. It’s a crying shame, yes, but its the truth and we have to look at it without emotion.
That’s an awesome ship, by the way. What can’t that sucker cut through?
Continuing on your analogy, we don’t have the hull to plow through the iceburg. We just don’t have powerful enough players or a smart enough coach to go full throttle at this. If we did, I’d be all for this approach, but we just don’t. It’s a crying shame, yes, but its the truth and we have to look at it without emotion.
Thank you for your concern.
(If I need counseling, what do the true believers need? An enema?)
Thank you for your concern.
(If I need counseling, what do the true believers need? An enema?)
Did you just describe the proper way to respond if Mike Holmgren approached you?
Great. Now it’s latched onto me. Backing away verrry slowly, no eye contact . . .
You’re taking us all back to around 4th grade with your responses here. Keep it up.
Or, act like an adult and discuss the issues.
Uh oh. Now I’ve made it mad. Getting back in the car . . .
yes it is. saw it once and was in awe. wish I could have boarded it.
and if that’s the case, then the 3rd sentence applies.
I didn’t say the Browns needed to find 3 hall of famers this year or I wasn’t going to be happy. I asked why they shouldn’t TRY AND COMPETE. The one and done scenario wasn’t because the team made the playoffs, it was because the following year they didn’t take the right steps forward.
Only in Cleveland would fans consider competing for a playoff spot as a negative because it drops their number 1 draft position. Completely ridiculous, other playoff teams seam to do fine picking in the late 20s every year. Picking late hasn’t seemed to screw the Steelers up. I don’t hear any black and piss complaining about not getting to pick 4th this year.
i’m not talking draft position. i mentioned nothing of draft position at all.
i’m talking about putting overpaid veteran bandaids all over the place and hoping that every now and then you have enough bandaids to squeak a playoff spot, but you usually just cripple your cap situation and have a bad team moving forward.
we finally have a young team. draft a RT and look at the ages on our OL. JoeT will be the wily veteran 🙂 same with our DL. how many 30+ guys are on the team? not many and the few are not key contributors (outside Mr. Clutch Dawson).
the only guy of consequence we lost was Hillis (and we all know the issues there). I don’t think we really miss Mike Adams.
and, I think that we do try to snag a playoff spot this year. I don’t think it’s likely with our schedule, division, and talent level, but will be ecstatic if we can. I also think that if we do, then we’ll likely get pounded in that game, but do not care (as long as it’s not to a division rival).
what I do care about is getting off the hamster wheel of mediocrity and having something built that we can actually sustain.
i’m not talking draft position. i mentioned nothing of draft position at all.
i’m talking about putting overpaid veteran bandaids all over the place and hoping that every now and then you have enough bandaids to squeak a playoff spot, but you usually just cripple your cap situation and have a bad team moving forward.
we finally have a young team. draft a RT and look at the ages on our OL. JoeT will be the wily veteran 🙂 same with our DL. how many 30+ guys are on the team? not many and the few are not key contributors (outside Mr. Clutch Dawson).
the only guy of consequence we lost was Hillis (and we all know the issues there). I don’t think we really miss Mike Adams.
and, I think that we do try to snag a playoff spot this year. I don’t think it’s likely with our schedule, division, and talent level, but will be ecstatic if we can. I also think that if we do, then we’ll likely get pounded in that game, but do not care (as long as it’s not to a division rival).
what I do care about is getting off the hamster wheel of mediocrity and having something built that we can actually sustain.
oh, and also, the only way we are getting 3 HOFers from the Browns is to have that consistent contending team. So, if we want JoeT, Sheard, and Haden to make the HOF someday, then having a team that can make the playoffs every year and winning a few SBs will surely help 🙂
I would certainly expect more than just a second rounder this year to let St. Louis leap frog us this year… I think we would demand a similar ransom as we got from Atlanta last year for a similar move. An extra 1st next year would be sweet… And I for one am all for Richardson (stud), Hill (tall stud), and Weeden (old….stud)./or best available RT here. Weeden is a good heady QB, and has the tools to really make an impact if needed. nothing wrong with some experienced depth. And he may be 29 at seasons start, but he has only been playing in college for the last 2 years, so he is still fresh, and without any injury history…
Richardson would lock that position down, making Bal. and Pitt. to take him in to account, and opening passing lanes for our young receivers to practice catching the ball.. 🙂
He’s versatile and that’s why I like him. I am not sure what he will play because they say he doesn’t have the foot speed to play tackle at the nfl level to stop the outside rushers. Regardless he has the versatility to help us at tackle or become a dominant guard.
We don’t have to be dominant but we have to be better than what we were. Alex Mack had a terrible year last year. Pinkston was solid for his 1st year. Lauvao you can’t depend on and the right tackle spot is horrific. I just think our strength should be getting trench players because these skill players that are in top 20 picks don’t separate themselves enough to make up for having a terrible line. In order to make this line solid we need 2 guards and one tackle minimum.
If you look at the last 3 years Aaron Rodgers and Ben Rothlesberger have been sacked a ton and get hit a lot. Rodgers a couple years ago was sacked the most in the league. They get away with this right now but for how long. Also I guess in order to have this line that Colt McCoy is going to have to play at an Aaron Rodgers type level to be effective. Plus even with Aaron Rodgers being such a threat Green Bay still can’t run the ball.
why, because then we only screw ourselves. There is no way the rams give up more then a second rder to move up two spots and get a tackle. The price is far different because you are talking about one of the most dynamic qb prospects in decades in RG3, and there is a Matt Kalil caliber tackle in the draft every year. If we get a second we have to take it, maybe we could hold out for a second and a 7th or 6th, but I don’t see rams giving up anymore. No way Minnesota passes on Kalil anyway.
Man, the idea that the Browns take Weeden in the second while believing he will be our future back up QB doesn’t make sense to me. Your ready to trade McCoy for a 5th or 6th pick also would hurt the team. As of yet we have a young talented QB and time invested in. Give him the 100% effort you expect from him from a team point of view. He has been shortchanged in what was his rookie season by this team. One point five seconds less time on average than any other QB in the league, to get a pass off. That is a huge statistic. Running for his life most of the time. These things have been argued back and forth for too long. The Browns should show some support for this QB. He deserves it. As does the team. So no I can’t see trading him for next to nothing before he is given any support sets an example around the league the Browns treatment of players is shabby at best. But to toss McCoy for a complete unknown is not in the interests of this team, nor organization as a whole.
I have to add, that McCoy is been screwed over by the Browns, and I am a big Fan of the Browns. From what has transpired since he was drafted the plan for him has been a mess…….bc
And also Dallas had a dynasty in the 90’s with their dominant o-line. Every position they had a stud almost.
Weeden is not good experienced depth. Only 2 years at QB in collage and no pro games under his belt. If he does go on to being a competent QB at the Pro level who knows he could play into his late thirties and be effective, at least that is a possibility. I do not think we use a 1st or 2ed round pick on a QB with the needs we have to be filled……bc
That would be “Brain Washing”
I like your idea of trading down, but I might trade down a bit farther to No. 8 or No. 9 and take guard David DeCastro. Like you, I would then take a wide receiver, such as your pick Kendall Wright or Stephen Hill, or a running back, like Lamar Miller that you suggested. In the second round, I’d select offensive tackle Bob Massie at No. 37 and a defensive back, such as Chase Minnifield, with the second round pick they get for trading down in the first round. This draft then gives Colt McCoy more protection and another offensive weapon as well as upgrades the defensive backfield.
Alright, I’ll bite. Here is my dream scenario. Rams want Blackmon so we slide back to 6. Bucs take Richardson because LeGarret Blount is talented but clueless. Miami is worried that the Browns are going to take Tannehill, so they trade up to 6 and we slide back to 8. After Miami grabs their QB, the Jags pick between Coples and Reiff. Hey, it could happen. The Jags have no discernible need at CB. Claiborne then goes to the Browns at 8 after having surgery on his hand, scaring some teams. It would take ice water in Heckerts veins and wanderlust from other teams about specific players, but the Browns then get Claiborne and 2 additional second rounders.
#22 Jonathon Martin OT Stanford
#33 (Rams trade) Kendall Wright WR Baylor
#37 David Wilson RB Virginia Tech
#42 (Dolphins trade) Nick Perry DE USC
In summary, the Rams trade because they WANT a target for Bradford, and they trade an almost first rounder because they have #39 from the Redskins in the RG3 trade. The Dolphins do the trade with the Browns because they just struck out on Manning and Flynn, and their HC and OC are both West Coast guys and the OC coached Tannehill in college. They want to call the Browns bluff on Tannehill, but they just can’t take the chance.
I like Blackmon with the first pick and VT’s David Wilson with the second!!!!!
thank you
the Tannehill pick is probably the biggest stretch, but aside from him, I like all the other picks. there are a good amount of starters in there