While We’re Waiting… Profiling Chris Grant, Tribe 3B battle and Free agent projections
March 8, 2012Video: Kyrie Irving’s Game-Winner in Denver
March 8, 2012As the three-way split of the Big Ten regular season title will lead you to believe, with three additional teams within three games of first place, the top half of the conference is incredibly strong and balanced. This makes this year’s Big Ten Conference Tournament, which kicks off later today in Indianapolis, all the more interesting. The Ohio State Buckeyes, co-champions of the conference, took the third seed by virtue of losing tiebreakers with top seed Michigan State and #2 Michigan. With Wisconsin rounding out the top four teams that do not have to play Thursday, you could make a case for any of them, along with a giant killer in Indiana, a tournament lock in Purdue and a bubblelicious Northwestern squad, to take home the hardware.
For the Buckeyes, this is a true opportunity to return to the top tier of teams and take a stab in the dark at a #1 seed. For OSU to win three games in three days, they could potentially have to go through Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State. They are a combined 3-2 against those teams, and the average margin of victory was just under 7 points in those 3 wins. The last thing the Buckeyes need, however, is an easy road. What they do need is to show many of the same characteristics they displayed in that second half in East Lansing on Sunday to impress the committee. Even more important, they must prove that Jared Sullinger can play a physical game for close to 40 minutes, William Buford can avoid the horrid shooting performances, and the team can play the type of lockdown defense they’ve displayed for about 80% of the season.
More than anything, this is an opportunity for the Buckeyes to strengthen the chemistry of their starting five. Because let’s face it, Thad Matta will only be going to the bench when absolutely necessary in tournament games. Evan Ravenel and Sam Thompson got some big minutes in Sunday’s game, and Shannon Scott has been used at times to spell Craft or provide a two point guard look. Still, I think we’re looking at four starters (Smith Jr. excluded) logging 35+ minutes from here on out.
In Purdue, the Buckeyes would face a large dose of high ball screens with Robbie Hummel, which were nearly effective enough to shock Ohio State on their home floor. The Buckeyes won the high scoring affair and only matchup between the two teams 87-84. In that game, the Buckeyes relied heavily on Buford to carry them home down the stretch (29 points, 10-of-17 shooting). Boiler guard D.J. Byrd also had an incredible three-point shooting performance in that game (24 points, 7-for-9 from 3-point range), and the Boilers have since lost guard Kelsey Barlow, who had 14 in that game, to dismissal.
So, who do I see cutting down the nets in the Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Sunday afternoon? If you had asked me on Sunday morning, my answer would’ve been Michigan, assuming a Michigan State win and solo title would’ve made Michigan the most hungry and confident team. If you had asked me following the OSU victory in East Lansing and freshman Branden Dawson was still healthy, I would’ve answered Michigan State for the revenge factor. Now, I’m not so sure. In my opinion, this opens it up for the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan potential semifinal to take the title. The Wolverines rely on scheme and execution much more than size and strength to control Sullinger in the post. They executed their plan to perfection once this year in Ann Arbor, but I do not believe they will be able to do it again on a neutral site. That’s right, I’m shocking myself and taking the Buckeyes to cut down the nets in Indy. Thad Matta always has his teams in high gear when they hit Indianapolis, and he is as good of a coach as there is in these three games in three days scenarios.
Here’s a fun fact: Michigan State has not won the Big Ten Tournament since… 2000! I had to double check that one just to be sure. To me, it shows two different schools of thought. Matta, who has won the conference tournament three times in six chances at OSU and has failed to make the title game just once since 2006, uses the conference tournament as a springboard into the NCAAs, expending a great deal of energy to win it. Meanwhile, Izzo’s team has not even reached the championship game since 2000 despite taking home at least a share of the regular season title twice since. No, Tom’s method is to fly under the radar, just as they did for most of this season. Winning the Big Ten Tournament gives MSU the same outside shot at the top seed as Matta’s bunch, and that’s too high profile for Izzo’s liking. It’s going to of course depend on matchups, but I could easily see Ohio State winning the B1G tourney, Michigan State bowing out to Indiana or Wisconsin, and MSU still advancing further in the tournament.
My predictions for the weekend are as follows. I’m going with Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, and Purdue in the opening round games today. Next, I’ll take Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio State to advance to the semis on Saturday. I’ll take Indiana in an upset over Michigan State, Ohio State over Michigan, and the Buckeyes defeating the Hoosiers to take home a third straight conference tournament title.
It’s Championship Week, and you can be assured that whoever takes home the Big Ten crowd will have earned it against some strong competition.
(Photo: Michael Conroy/AP)
3 Comments
As a Michigan fan, I am enjoying how evenly matched OSU, MSU and U of M are. Vry curious to see how these teams match up on a neutral site. The B1G is legit. I can see any of those three teams ending up in New Orleans.
i’m looking forward to this being the last weekend of Big 10 refs. Can’t wait to watch basketball with refs who don’t think they’re the show
” I’m going with Illinois,…” well you got that one wrong. I wonder if my Hawkeyes can make a believer out of you by stopping MSU tomorrow??