May 22, 2013

Browns took the risks and we’ll see about the rewards

The good news is that there is nothing to talk about with regard to the Trent Richardson pick at three. The Cleveland Browns paid a price and they got a guy they absolutely wanted and needed to help kick-start a mostly dead offense from 2011. Yes, the Browns paid with some lower round picks to make it happen, but this is Heckert’s M.O. to a large extent. It is a strategy that I mostly agree with too. If you don’t always want to be subject to the actions of others, you need to control your own destiny. Sometimes that means getting Phil Taylor. Other times that means getting Montario Hardesty. Both times it leaves me confident that at least Tom Heckert got who he wanted. That brings us to Brandon Weeden.

Brandon Weeden is a guy that the Browns obviously wanted. The only question is how much? Did they want him more than Michael Floyd (13th to the Cards) and Kendall Wright (20th to the Titans?) Nobody knows for sure, but I would bet the Browns wanted Floyd if they could have found a way to get him. I would also bet the same with Kendall Wright. Additionally, we can say conclusively that the Browns wanted Brandon Weeden more than they wanted Riley Reiff who was selected with the pick after the Browns at number 23. We can also say conclusively that the Browns wanted Brandon Weeden more than they wanted to roll the dice going forward with Colt McCoy.

Now Colt McCoy has gone from the incumbent starter all the way to being the subject of trade rumors. If you believe Adam Schefter’s sources, the Browns flat out lied to Colt by telling him they wouldn’t select a QB in the first round. While it is tough to believe the Browns would make any such guarantee to a guy who had a season like Colt McCoy had a year ago, I guess it’s possible. No matter. In the end, that’s all just noise that doesn’t matter much. This isn’t a rec league and the Browns need to whatever they feel they need to do. For the Browns’ brass last night, that meant “adding to the pile” at QB as Mike Holmgren likes to say.

What’s to say about Weeden? For the Browns it is a bold move, to say the least. It is the boldest move at QB since the Browns drafted Brady Quinn. That’s not to say Weeden is anything like Quinn, of course. I’ve said that the Browns are still paying for the Quinn move even to this day, but for whatever reason this Weeden pick feels differently to me. A lot of it has to do with the fact that the Browns paid for Weeden long ago because of the trade down with ATL vs. the trade up with the Cowboys. Gambling on Weeden won’t cost the same kind of money and if he flops the Browns won’t have to watch someone else use their first round pick at the top of next year’s draft. All that being said, the stakes are still pretty high for the Browns if Weeden isn’t able to perform at a high level.

Did the Browns take too much risk taking Weeden at #22? Depends on if he can play. In the end that’s all that really matters. Brandon Weeden will have to play well for the Browns to come out looking good from this draft. The Browns took a risk by selecting Brandon Weeden, that’s for sure. Every draft pick is a risk though, and apparently going into the season with Brandon Weeden seemed like less of a risk than going into it with Colt McCoy.

Do I like it? I don’t know. I just don’t have a strong opinion on it yet. I can understand it and make sense of the mindset that most likely led to the move. It certainly could make some sense but there’s no doubting it was a risk. Every draft pick is a risk, of course, but it always feels that much higher stakes when it is at the quarterback position. This is certainly a far cry from Robert Griffin III. Then again, Robert Griffin III will not have the advantage of playing with Trent Richardson and whoever else the Browns draft with all those picks not surrendered to the Rams. Let’s just say I’m cautiously optimistic for now.

  • Scott

    I was shocked, initially, to hear the words “Brandon Weeden” come out of Roger’s mouth. I was upset, too. But the more you think about this pick, the more it makes sense. Colt’s a great guy, but he’s not the AFC North-type quarterback that we need. We needed a big, strong, accurate guy to come in with Trent and get things going from Day 1. Would I have liked Reiff or DeCastro? Sure. But that isn’t the direction Tom and Mike wanted to go. And I respect that.   

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    i think you have it backward.

    the browns took NO risk and we’ll see how it pans out.

    to wit:  there was a risk someone would jump up with the vikes and take richardson.  there was a [small] risk someone would draft weeden before 37.  in both cases, the browns were 100% risk averse and paid a premium for their security.

  • 216in614

    If it was just about the #22 pick and thats all its not a big deal.

    The thing that worries me is that they basically are admitting we are starting over at QB but without weapons around him or a legitimate elite prospect.
    Putting the weapons around McCoy with the backup plan of drafting a top end elite QB prospect next year seemed like the safer bet.

    Lets hope the huge gamble they took pays off.

  • Roosevelt

    Was Weeden a can’t miss prospect who happened to be a little old? No. He was a good prospect who is a little old. People who are thinking that he might be Kurt Warner or Steve Young are nuts – Young had years of USFL and NFL experience, and Warner was completely unknown and had a totally unorthodox background. Weeden is a known commodity – he was a pretty good college quarterback, who might be a pretty good NFL player but he doesn’t have much time to get there. Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, etc. took a few years to develop, and Weeden is none of them. Look at Weeden’s highlights – he was not particularly… anything. He doesn’t have the crazy arm that everyone assumes he does when they hear he was a pitcher. He did not thread the needle on countless passes into tight coverage. He got most of his yards on checkdowns with runs after the catch, although admittedly, he did have some zing on mid-range passes. Look at the videos here 
    http://draftbreakdown.com/scouting-report-brandon-weeden  and imagine he was 22. You still won’t get excited.  

  • Blue_Guybrush

    This is an absurd, absurd pick. As though a geriatric QB who somehow became a 1st rounder is going to do any better than a dedicated, team-oriented hardworking 3rd rounder when neither has ANYONE to pass to and ANY protection. It’s like buying new tires because the old ones didn’t seem to be perfect, and now you have no money to put in the missing engine.

  • C-Bus Kevin

    I, like so many others, was skeptical of the Weeden pick initially. However, my mood has brightened after considering the upside. For me, the Browns draft looks like this…

    They’ve selected a RB and a quarterback that, in my opinion, are at the top of the Browns’ depth chart at their respective positions. If they pick a WR a 37 (let’s say it’s Hill), that guy will be the number one a his position too.

    In conclusion, the Browns have instantly upgraded 2 (and potentially 3) very important offensive positions on their team. Count me in the ‘happy’ column for now. This team needs offense badly, and the Browns are upgrading. This is a good thing.

  • C-Bus Kevin

    No weapons…

    Sooooo, Richardson and the WR they will most likely pick today don’t count?

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    He could have been selected 15 picks later allowing them to draft a stud RT in Reiff and it really bothers me.  Of course there is still the problem of WR but that’s what happens when you lose players and don’t really participate in FA.

    The other thing that really bothers me or concerns me is the conference and system Weeden played under but mostly the system.  Add in the fact that he had Justin Blackmon to throw to and that the Browns don’t have anyone resembling Blackmon and well, here we go again.

    I hope for the sake of the people who constantly whined about McCoy and his arm strength that they got their man otherwise, well, I won’t think about it.

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    as of this instant they are the 2010 rams:

    rookie 1st rd QB
    stud RB
    holes on o-line
    no top WR
    WCO à la shurmur

    im trying to be hopeful.  but the 2010 rams are not a great template to model your team after.

  • Vindictive_Pat

    It’s a good thing if you think the Browns really upgraded at QB.  I really want to be in that camp… I’m trying to round up as many positives as I can from friends who went to OK State.  Everything I have heard is around being a “winner” and getting “results”.  That sounds like Colt McCoy 2.0 to me.  I love that the Browns are finally addressing offense… just wish I believed all of those picks to be an upgrade.

  • Vindictive_Pat

    It’s a good thing if you think the Browns really upgraded at QB.  I really want to be in that camp… I’m trying to round up as many positives as I can from friends who went to OK State.  Everything I have heard is around being a “winner” and getting “results”.  That sounds like Colt McCoy 2.0 to me.  I love that the Browns are finally addressing offense… just wish I believed all of those picks to be an upgrade.

  • Vindictive_Pat

    I don’t think you can assume they will add a WR in the 2nd round… they could just as easily go RT or RG or surprise us with a CB, S, or OLB.  As we have seen with pick #22, none of us knows or can even fathom what the Browns’ draft board looks like.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Kevin any WR would be an upgrade by default for the Cleveland Browns.  Richardson is already head and shoulders above anyone on the offense maybe even the defense.  Heckert didn’t risk much IMO moving up to #3 lets just hope Richardson is what they thought and we hope.

    As for Weeden he would have been there at #37 guaranteed.  Is he an upgrade, really, for certain?  I know he’s bigger and has a stronger arm but that’s about it.  I also know he came from the same conference as McCoy and that he played in a spread offense mostly in shotgun and relied on alot of check downs and quick hitters namely to Justin Blackmon.  Maybe that’s how he fits in I don’t know but I know he’ll be coached by the offensive genius of Pat Shurmur and Brad Childress!  Maybe Weeden’s age will help to nullify the latter some.

  • TheRobot57

    I am actually disgusted with the way the organization has treated Colt during his tenure. The crap after the Harrison hit is inexcusable. Then lying to him about not drafting someone in the first round. I know it’s a business but there is good business and bad business. He’s a good player and great guy. He deserved better.

  • cmm13

    I’ll make it simple:  “are you better at QB today than you were yesterday?”

    The answer:  Nobody knows.

    Because nobody knows it is easy to get angry and frustrated at the pick. 

    Do we have a bigger, stronger QB?  Yes.  But as we all know that doesn’t make him “better”

    I went nuclear when this move was made because it didn’t fall in with what H&H have told us for years…”be patient, we are building through the draft, we need to get young, we need to install our system.”

    The move reeks of desperation on a guy who isn’t young and doesnt fit their system and that is why I do not like the pick.

    Is that to say “i hate Brandon Weeden”?  No.  It’s not his fault he was chosen, so I will root for his success obviously and hope to be wrong.

    But…if Weeden starts throwing picks because he can’t take the rush, if their rookie WR isn’t an absolute steal, if Little doesn’t turn the corner and if TRich can’t run because he is getting creamed off the right side I won’t lose a night’s sleep over the empty stadium and blacked out games.

  • Some guy

    The 2012 Browns have one thing on the 2010 Rams:

    BRAD CHILDRESS

    Six wins baby!

  • BenRM

    I am so glad that the Browns were “unable” to draft Kendell Wright. When a “speed” receiver is not actually very fast, it’s not very good. 

  • Max

    I just changed a diaper, I have a pretty good idea what it looks like

  • Steve

    “be patient, we are building through the draft, we need to get young, we need to install our system.”

    The most important part. This pick makes me question if there is even a plan in place. We sat by and didn’t complain too much when you refused to sign FAs who were in or near their prime because we accepted that by the time the team would really compete, they would be too old with big cap numbers. But then you spend a first round pick on a guy who is that age? What?

    If you want to get young and build up an entire roster, then fine. If you want to take a run at it now with guys who are at or near 30, then fine. I can live with either one of those plans, as long as there is a plan. I can’t live with this.

  • Harv 21

    true, as of this instant. But can we at least let them get through round 2 before the comparison models?

  • mgbode

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=he4suL3YGJA

    Just pretend the red&black is South Carolina’s defense instead of TxTech’s?

  • Jack

    you forgot the relevant adjectives for colt:

    noodle-armed, short, ineffective

  • cmm13

    I am not sure which is worse; that there was never a plan in place or that there was a plan in place, it wasn’t working, they scrapped it all and are now desperate?

    All plans need adjusts and tweaks as they work themselves out..but Weeden is not an adjustment or tweak.

    Trust me, Colt was not the answer in my opinion, but right now to me neither is Weeden until he proves it.

    Which is also why this move is frustrating because we are all so sick of giving QB’s their “shot”.

    I sat by and let Holcomb, Frye, Quinn, Anderson and Colt all have “their shots’…history with this team and project qb’s = FAIL.

  • Vindictive_Pat

    Awwww man, it sucks that we got Richardson.  Weeden would look really good in our 3rd down shotgun formation!

  • Steve

     What happens when Richardson can’t carry the team on his own, Hill shows why he was considered a project, and he, and Weeden, go through an adjusting period next year and we’re picking top 5 again, and Barkley is staring us in the face?

    At that point, does anyone even possibly go “oops, we may have not planned this well” (Who am I kidding, we all know that answer, just ask Pat)

  • Harv 21

    Choosing an older guy just seems so outrageously brave to me. In one sense it might have been less risky to sacrifice all those high picks for the younger and more talented Robert Griffin, because if he is slow developing they can preach patience. With Weeden they are holding the anvil over their own heads. Seems like these days the QB choice is the FO’s career umbilical cord. Savage went down with Brady and Anderson (especially Brady);  H & H will live and die with Colt/Weeden.

    Have no idea how this will turn out but we won’t have to wait too long to find out. You can tell right away if an RB is the man, and the new QB will be on the spot right from the jump.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Don’t the Browns seem kind of bi-polar to you?  On one hand they say they are going to build through the draft all but bypassing free agency while appearing to give McCoy the nod as the starting QB for the upcoming season then they turnaround and draft a 28 yo QB with what appears to be the intention of starting him immediately.  Maybe I misunderstood what building through the draft meant.  Maybe instead of it taking 1-2 years accumulating talent which included the potential future QB it meant just needing a RB like Trent Richardson.  I mean that’s all they’ve done to improve things offensively for Weeden thus far.  This guy must be good.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Pat won’t be around probably so you better ask the Big Ego I’m sure he’ll be around.  If not call into a Seattle radio station you’ll be able to get him that way.  ;-)

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    It’s not like they (The Browns) haven’t done this before just ask Quinn heck ask Tim Couch.  And I wasn’t or am now a fan of either. 

  • Saurabhgup

    i think this site’s analysis for the Browns Weeden Pick is SPOT ON!  
    lots of .gifs takes a minute to load.

    http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=52641 

  • TheRobot57

    That’s a problem. Players talk. That’s why it’s bad business. No player wants to come to a circus.

  • erchoov

    If this is the year of taking “risks” then I want to us take some real ones.  Guys like Lavonte David and Janoris Jenkins could fall to the 3rd or 4th.  Let’s roll the dice.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Don’t tell that to the Browns they think the reason players don’t want to come here is because of the weather and night life!

  • Harv 21

    Honestly, I think something significant happened that soured them on Colt between the end of year 1 and halfway through year 2. Holmgren was guardedly glowing about him in an interview after his first few ’10 starts. Maybe he and Shurmur couldn’t click, maybe with all the aw shucks-workin’-hard media quotes he’s a stubborn kid who wasn’t all that coachable. Just spit-balling, but something changed their opinion.

    I wonder if we’ll think of him years from now similarly to how we think of Couch: may have washed out anyway, but was had no chance and we’ll never know. If he signs with GB and looks good when he’s in I know I’ll feel bad about what happened here. Unless of course Weeden is the bomb.

  • parakeet_petey

    While I do think they could have had him in the second round, I still like the pick. I know I’m in the minority here.  I found it interesting someone was using his highlights as a way to convince me his arm WASN’T good. I’m in total disagreement.  He has a great arm (not a ‘good-enough’ arm, a great arm).  Not only with those short WCO passes get their quicker (and allow the runner to actually RUN after the catch), he can throw downfield.  He isn’t afraid to do that either.  On multiple occasions last year, I felt that was an issue with Colt.  He had guys open but didn’t pull the trigger.  

    He’s 28.  Not 38.  I don’t think the age thing is a big deal. He could have 10 years of playing! If he can play, he will be with the Browns longer than Richardson. Our mgt wanted to get a guy who could start right away.  Look at the maturity of the kid.  He’s gonna start.  I’m ok with having Richardson and Weeden (and our first rounder next year) instead of RGIII (and the picks we used to trade up yesterday).  Maybe that will spark and argument, but I think this guy can play.  Steps UP into the pocket and isn’t afraid to make a hard throw.  Is it a reach if this guy can play?  I don’t think so at all, for the most important position on the field.

  • Max

    Yup, balmy Green Bay has the hippinest hoppinest night club scene I’ve seen.

    (do I have to?) /s

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    agreed harv.

    this may also provide a basis for hope wrt shurmur’s offense.  maybe they so soured on colt that they DID take away hot reads and DID restrict the playcalling to elementary levels.

    i sure hope that’s the case.

  • Steve

     How many 38 year old starting QBs do you know? I’ll give you a hint here, there were none last year, and will be none this year. The guys who make it to past 35 are generally the absolute studs, and you get a Hasselbeck-type every once in a while.

    Why are we counting on this guy aging like Hasselbeck or coming out firing like a Brady/Brees?

  • dreinha5

    I think that something was the concussion fiasco; Holmey and co.  are still defensive about the way that played out.

  • http://www.redright88.com/ TitusPullo94

     I think what happened is the Browns brass got a chance to see McCoy play and realized he’s not the answer.

    If McCoy didn’t get the message when it came out that the Browns tried to trade up for RG3, he definitely got the message last night.

    The one good thing is they didn’t pull McCoy or make any definitive conclusions on him until they had multiple games to judge him.

  • Steve-o

     

    Some
    thoughts about this off-season so far:

    1) Thankfully
    we hired an experienced OC.

    2) We had
    the ammunition and desire to acquire a franchise QB (presumably) and failed to
    do so.

    3) We did
    not take advantage of a good FA class and actually lost more than we gained.

    4) Despite
    the fact that the NFL is a passing league, we fell in love with a RB. Knowing
    this, the Vikings conned us into giving them three valuable picks that could
    have been used to make sensible trades. The Vikings were locked into taking
    Kalil and would not have risked losing him. Their talk about preferring
    Claiborne or Blackmon was bluster, a fact that became clear when they took
    Kalil instead. Granted, this was not Butch Davis bad, but it was a slap in the
    face nonetheless.

    5) Weeden. I
    fell to the floor and nearly vomited. Now that the nausea has ended my thoughts
    are;

    a)
    If they wanted Kendall Wright, why not trade up a few spots to get him?

    b)
    Then again, if they knew they were going to take Weeden at some point, why not
    take Blackmon first since the two already have chemistry? It could have been
    Blackmon, Doug Martin, and then Weeden.

    c)
     DeCastro will probably be a pro-bowl
    guard for Pittsburg long after both Weeden and Richardson are done. By passing
    on him, we made the Steelers that much better.

    d)
    Historically, the fourth best QB taken in the draft has about a 10% chance of
    being the real deal. The first QB has about 50%. I prefer those odds.

    e)
    Then again, I’m not worried about passing on a long term franchise QB next year
    because what would be required for that opportunity to present itself would
    also lead to the demise of the current regime.

    f)
    Weeden only knows the spread offense and will probably take a few years to hit
    his stride. He’ll be 32. Most QB’s begin rapid decline in their mid thirties.  We’ll get 3-4 years of prime at best. That’s better
    than we’ve had lately, but more should be expected from a first round QB.

    g)
    He should be better than Colt, right?

    h)
    Speaking of Colt, we said we were going with him this year and then drafted his
    replacement. It’s one thing to lie about your draft plans to mislead other
    GM’s. All teams do that to gain an advantage. It’s different when you lie to a
    member of your own team. This creates mistrust in the locker room.

    i)
    As much as I disliked the pick, Weeden is now a Brown and I’m pulling for him
    to succeed.

    6)The Browns
    preached long view when it came time to ante up in a good FA market and then
    turned around and drafted like there’s no tomorrow. As irritated as this makes
    me, I’d much prefer this to work out than to start all over again.

    7) Despite
    all of the above, we still have a chance to redeem ourselves with our remaining
    picks. If we get a WR, RT, and a decent defensive player, we could be ok.

    8) Expectations
    for this team are low. That could work in our favor. (not holding my breath
    though)

    Sorry for the long post. I needed to vent.

  • parakeet_petey

    If they took him his high, they think he can at the least be good for six to eight years.  So, 38 was a little excessive. :)   

    I don’t think they are counting on the guy coming out firing like Brady or Brees, that’s why they took a stud running back with their first pick.  It will take some of the pressure off him.  

  • Steve-o

    Wow-a, not sure what went wrong, but the unnecessary spaces and format issues weren’t there when I hit the post button.

  • Harv 21

    in one sense them pulling the plug now may be healthy. I as a fan naturally pull for the kid QB. But they may have gotten their sufficient sample size against the division’s defenses and coldly decided: he’s not up for it, he’s not showing the “it” to compensate for his physical limitations, he’s not on board with the coach we chose, it was just a third round investment so let’s cut losses and move on. That would be admirable. Don’t sit there just hoping he eventually proves you right, admit the error and move on.

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    we have to get right tackle squared away at 37.

    you might not love our WRs of little/momass/cribbs.  but there is NO-ZERO-NADA right tackle now.  (and there hasnt been for four years.)

    glenn and martin are still on the board.  get one.  do not get cute with a WR.  weeden is not known to be mobile and you dont want him scrambling around even if he were.  

    FIX THE LINE.

  • mgbode

    unless the Rams take Martin and the Ravens take Glenn.  if one of them falls to #37, I agree.  if not, then we need to grab our highest WR and try to trade back into the bottom of round2 to make sure we get our next OT (Osemele or Schwartz?)

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Something happened with Hillis too!  Alot of things seem to still happen in Berea and I thought Holmgren was brought in to end that, to bring stability.  I don’t see anything resembling stability or a plan.

  • We’ll See But Look At This
  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    i say we go to silotalu or adams if what you say plays out.  (and i think it’s better than 50-50 that both martin and glenn are gone.)  i think it’s much more likely you can get talent at WRs in the 3rd round… more depth there than line.  oh and thanks niners taking aj jenkins off the board, lol.

  • Harv 21

    You can’t blame this regime for Hillis’s money weirdness and disruptions any more you can than blame Mangini for Braylon’s issues. Come now, let’s try to be objective even if we don’t like these guys.