May 19, 2013

NFL Draft Rumor: Bills want to trade up for Kalil

April 25, 2012 by 31 Comments

It’s the night before the draft and the rumors are flying. The Buffalo Bills apparently feel they’re very close with their signing of Mario Williams and re-signing of Stevie Johnson this off-season. Why else would they be willing to trade up for a single piece – even a presumed powerhouse – like Matt Kalil?

While the old draft trade chart is admittedly outdated, it’s at least worth a look here. Per the old chart, Buffalo’s Nos. 10 and 41 overall picks equate to 1,790 “points.” The third overall pick is worth 2,200 points, and No. 4′s value is 1,800 points. So the Bills could get just shy of the fourth pick based on the old points system.

So there it is. If I’m the Vikings – or even the Browns should Kalil fall to #4 – I am going to hold out for more than just nos. 10 and 41 overall. Assuming that the old draft value chart is out of date, that would mean that the Browns’ pick is actually worth more because the rookies will be slotted from a salary standpoint.

[Related: The Relief of the Arrival of Draft Day]

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  • Ezzie Goldish

    That’s fine with me, guarantees the Browns get Claiborne.

    1050ESPN in NYC has been discussing a rumor here that the Jets would send the Browns their 1 and 2 and next year’s 1 for the 4th overall pick to take Richardson.

  • Max

    I am 5/6ths of the way through a sixer of Elephant right now but whaaaaaa? 

    No way do I trade from 4 to 10 just to pick up 41

  • saggy

     as much as i am about getting a blue chip guy NOW, i’d have to pull the trigger on this deal YESTERDAY.

  • http://twitter.com/Pelderskelter Patrick Elder

    The Bills have the 10th pick, Claiborne won’t be there at 10. They would probably take Michael Floyd there I would think.

  • Ezzie Goldish

    I mean that the Bills taking Kalil at #3 lets the Browns take Claiborne. 

  • Ezzie Goldish

    I don’t know. You’re talking 16, 47, and probably around 25 or so next year. That’s not fantastic.

  • Psaid2

    We keep trading down to NOT get a top player that can explode. We need that, not a bunch of later picks to just have bodies. It is time to pick up a great player and not just filling slots that we will need to address next year.. Take Richardson unless the Jets want to give up way more

  • mgbode

    trade chart needs updated with the rookie cap.  10+41 is not enough

  • mgbode

    that’s more like it, though i’d want a couple more mid rounders in there

  • Thekidd56

    Can’t wait for this all to be over.  Seems to be getting worse every year. 

  • saggy

    I overreacted. Maybe I misread your story?

    Dan Segelin
    Head Strength & Conditioning Coach
    The New York Fitness Institute

    dsegelin@thenyfi.com
    718.864.6878

  • Foghorn Leghorn

    the argument that you cant get a difference maker outside the top 10 is stupid.  There are thousands of examples to prove otherwise.  2 starters on this team are better than one star at this point.  You go for a star when you’re close, or better yet, you keep doing what the Pats do and trading down, CONSTANTLY reloading with middle to lower 1st round talent at at a clip of 2x faster than everyone else.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Joe-Murphy/30101207 Joe Murphy

    Here’s one time I disagree with you, and apparently everyone else.  Let’s say we get 10+41. With picks 10, 22, 37, 41 we go
    Michael Floyd, Riley Reiff , Whitney Mercillus, Lamar Miller. Likely not those exact players but WR, OL, DE, RB.

    Instead if we stick with 4, 22, 37 and draft T-Rich, Kendall Wright, and Whitney Mercillus. Again players are used for illustration. RB, WR, DE.

    Is T-Rich over Lamar Miller 37 picks later worth losing a future stud lineman?

    Put another way, would you rather have Steven Jackson (T-Rich) alone? Or a young Clinton Portis (L Miller) paired with a Ryan Clady?

    I gladly trade down at a discounted rate.  10 teams are selling, nobody’s buying.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Joe-Murphy/30101207 Joe Murphy

    Although the Draft Trade Value Chart says its fair, here’s what we should really be looking at-
    Real Life: 2 Pro Bowlers > 1 Pro Bowler

    We have starters that wouldn’t even be backups on other teams.  The Browns should do everything in their power to accumulate multiple top 50 picks, starting with trading down from #4.

  • floydrubino

    I’ve been saying this for months.

  • floydrubino

    I have never understood how people think there is that much difference between the 8th and 17th pick. Picks all the way up to 50 have some really good players and the more you accumulate the more chances you have of getting production. If we can trade down and accumulate picks we could still get Decastro and a right tackle for free and with the extra picks we could still go after some skill set players like a normal draft. Whatever way we do it trade down and get more picks in the top 50. We need RT,RG or LG,QB,RB,WR,CB,FS,DE,LB’s, so the more picks you get in the top 50 the better.

  • Robbie

     Unfortunately, it probably isn’t gonna get better until the Browns cease picking in the top 10 every year.

  • Zonk

    Let’s look at it this way…

    Quality > Quantity

    Last year’s #4: AJ Green (a true #1 WR)
    Last year’s #10 – Blaine Gabbert (not showing a whole heck of a lot)
    Last year’s #41 – Jarvis Jenkins (entire year on IR)

  • PATRIC

    1ST THREE PICKS….I PREDICT:

    1.RICHARDSON
    2.TRADE UP FOR FLOYD
    3.BEST OT AVAILABLE.

     

  • porckchopexpress

    To be fair the Browns never pick in the top 10. They’re “slotted” to pick in the top 10, but always manage to find a way out :)

  • Hermie13

    More likely is the Bills are eyeing the 5th pick in a scenario where Claiborne goes 3rd to the Vikings and Richardson goes 4th to the Browns. The Bucs dont have a huge need at LT. They could trade down to 10 and look at Kuechly or maybe Gilmore. Bills 1st and 2nd would be enough to move up to 5….

  • BisonDeleSightings

    COOL PICKS BRO

  • mgbode

    if it was a slightly reduced rate, then that would be fine.  however, we cannot have a clearance sale on the pick because that is what got Mangini/Kokinis in trouble. 

    there are 5-7 elite talents in this draft (depending on which source you trust the most).  so, at pick10, we will not get one of those talents.   in order to trade out of the ‘elite’ tier to the ‘non-elite’ tier we need to make sure to get good value.   this also helps set the tone for future negotiations (the ATL trade last year is a good barometer for example).

    I do like the idea of getting 4 starters.  But, to do it, the Bills need to give us proper value and I think that would have to include either their 2nd next year (preferable to me) or their 3rd this year.  

    The only issue is that we have 13 picks, so we’ll have to start a couple targeted trade-ups and hopefully bank a couple picks for next year’s draft as it’ll be tough for more than 8-9 guys to make the roster (and we cannot trade any of those last 4 compensatory picks).

    ————————

    finally, I think you are a tad optimistic in the players who will be available.  Floyd could very well got to JAX, Reiff in the teens, Mercillus to the Jets.  Lamar Miller’s stock has taken a hit, but I still view him as the 2nd best RB in the draft (and those generally go earlier than #41).   but, that is a smaller part of this debate.

  • Foghorn Leghorn

    Is that really your example?  Thats very poor logic.  You could replace AJ Green with any bust and Gabbert and Jenkins with any moderately successful picks and reverse this argument. 

  • Psaid2

    There would be no Claiborne as the Browns lose their 4th pick and won’t draft until #16.

  • Scooter

    I keep hearing this exact line.  I don’t buy it.  The NFL draft is such a crapshoot anyway.  No one knows that T Rich is going to ACTUALLY be a stud.  Just like no one knows if Mr Irrelevant will actually be irrelevant.  I say as bad as we are in our current state, we need all the picks we can possibly get.  When teams hoard picks like this, it’s then that they can pull the trigger on a blockbuster trade when they are ready for that ONE player that can make the difference.  I don’t care if Bo Jackson is available, no one person can help our Browns right now.

  • Scooter

    and I’ll say it AGAIN:

    why doesn’t my avatar work anymore?  This new format sucks.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Joe-Murphy/30101207 Joe Murphy

    Well thought out reply.  I suppose we see things differently.

    Re: 5-7 elite talents.  I don’t think there’s much seperating 5-25.

    Re: 13 picks. I would hope we don’t let the fact that we have 9 picks after the 3rd round stop us from gathering extra top 50 picks.  Having one less roster spot for those 6th and 7th rounders isn’t a deal breaker on my end.

    Re: optimistic projections: Indeed they were. But at least one stud will fall just due to team needs or value charts.  We will see a big name last much longer than they should.

  • Runcordes

    If Bills wait for the Browns to pick Richardson for kalil to drop, they woud be foolish. It is a known fact that Kalil is promoted as being one of only 5+ elites in the draft. If the Bills want Kalil, they would want to kick the tires with the Browns, hoping that nobody else is talking to them for that pick. Sure, the Browns are most likely going to take Richardson but if someone were to step in an make an offer, Kalil could be gone.

    Kalil dropping to 4 would be the best possible thing for the Browns in terms of upping their chances of getting more potential offers.

  • Garry_Owen

    Here.  Use this one instead.

    (I’m kidding!)

  • mgbode

    wouldn’t be fun if we always agreed.

    the talents that I have seen listed as elite even if I don’t agree with all of them:   Luck,RGIII,Claiborne,Kalil, Richardson, Blackmon, Barron

    I do see a pretty big dropoff between any of these players and the player listed 2nd at their position (yes that includes Floyd)

    I hope we use some of the 5 picks after the 3rd we are allowed to trade to get better top50 picks or another top50 pick, yes.  But, I was suggesting it might be motivation to get a 2nd in 2013 instead of a 3rd this year.

    Yep, some big names always drop on draft day.  I’m thinking it might be Coples, Kendall Wright, Mike Adams, and Doug Martin today (out of the 1st round).