May 18, 2013

What if the Browns had some good luck?

April 6, 2012 by 24 Comments

We all know the Browns were bad last year. I think most of us also know that the Browns were pretty unlucky as well. I believe that you make your own luck to some extent by dealing well with adversity. The Browns certainly didn’t do that last season. Regardless, there’s almost no denying the bad luck. Peyton Hillis’ injuries and off-the-field incidents were unlucky (or cursed if the Madden Curse is your thing.) Marcus Benard crashed his vehicle and took away the Browns low-priced sacks leader. Brandon Jackson. Remember him? He was supposed to be the versatile second running back. Eric Steinbach wasn’t supposed to miss the whole season either.

It got me wondering what a season of good luck would look like. Obviously you can’t count on any of these things with a straight face. Betting on hope isn’t a plan that ends in success very often. Then again, it would be nice for the Browns to have a season where luck landed them somewhere north of their natural state of success dictated by contingency plans.

Rookies Make Jumps

For the class of the AFC North it seems like players make jumps all the time when veterans get hurt or leave via free agency. That has rarely been the case for the Browns, but what if Tom Heckert’s drafts start to produce those guys?

Offensively guys like Jason Pinkston, Greg Little, and Jordan Cameron could become top starters. Pinkston had the benefit of working between Joe Thomas and Alex Mack as a rookie, but most grading scales had him ahead of second year player Shawn Lauvao. Greg Little had ups and downs, but certainly wasn’t bad for a guy coming off a year of not playing football. Jordan Cameron finally got some playing time at the end of the year, but his athleticism and ability could make him as valuable as Kellen Winslow Jr. if he could make the jump in his second year.

Defensively, Jabaal Sheard and Phil Taylor were both pretty good in their rookie seasons. Their continued improvement is almost expected at this point. What if the Browns could get a big jump from one from this pool of guys though? Buster Skrine, Eric Hagg, Brian Smith, Quinton Spears, or James Dockery?

If the Browns can find one legit starter from that class of guys, it will go a long way to help the team. These guys will hopefully get enough better to just improve special teams in 2012, but great teams find starters in guys like these.

Injured Players Make Comebacks

I won’t go too far into this one, because for me there are three players that I’m looking at in this category. Eric Steinbach, Brandon Jackson and Marcus Benard.

Obviously first things first. The Browns need to make a deal with Steinbach that gets him back in a Browns uniform. That remains to be seen, but every day that he doesn’t sign with anyone else seems like a small increase in the likelihood that he will be back with the Browns.

Brandon Jackson signed a two year deal and then disappeared during training camp with turf toe that had him miss the entire season. We’re talking about a well-rounded 26 year-old running back who certainly would have been an upgrade a year ago to Chris Ogbonnaya or a still-hobbled Montario Hardesty. Assuming he’s back from turf toe, Jackson is like a free agent acquisition that nobody is counting right now.

Speaking of 26 year-old free agents, Marcus Benard had 3.5 sacks in his rookie year in just six games. In his second year he had 7.5 to lead the entire team. He was hurt by the lockout more than most players because he somehow thought he should put on weight to play defensive end in the Browns’ new defense. He started the year off slowly in training camp because of that and then ended his year with a crash of his three-wheel motorcycle-ish vehicle. There’s good reason for optimism for Benard.

That’s it really. It doesn’t take a ton to have a year of good luck. Avoid some injuries. Find a starter from a group of young players. Have guys come back and play well after an injured year. All of a sudden a 4-12 team can look completely different on Sundays. I don’t expect to hear Tom Heckert crowing about these things as opportunities, but you have to think he’s hoping hard that at least a few of these things come to pass for the Browns this year.

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  • BrownsFanSF

    Always love the eternal optimism Craig, it’s a breath of fresh air.  Not to mention hopefully 3-4 (with some luck) starters out of this draft too.  Not saying we are headed for the Superbowl, but maybe sundays will be just a little more football watching and a little less drinking this year

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Will you buy me a Mega Millions ticket next time the jackpot is large?  Note: I’d want the ticket in my possession though, lol. 

    Anyways I think you are asking for an awful lot.  In fact this almost sounds like your making a prayer but maybe that’s me.  I agree with teams making their own luck but I think that stems more from stability as an organization and a roster comprised of talented football players.  The Browns have a long way to go for both of those as I see it.  Maybe then the luck will start to change.

  • gren

    I’m just holding out hope that Bernard hasn’t lost a step thanks to his injury. Clearly our best pass rusher and I was quickly becoming a fan until his incident.

  • Henry Brown

    Front office stability is what will give these younger players time to develop. We blow it up every 3 years and the new guys just toss out all the old guys players and bring in their own. H&H did it too, but its time to let them have a few more passes before tar & feathering them. It would be nice if the “fans” and media learned a little patience as well. 

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Craig Lyndall

    I’m just throwing all the corn on the table in hopes of finding one or two pieces that look great.

  • Harv 21

    man, Craig, you and I are doing an opposites day today.

    Of course, very year certain players will improve. However, others will slip some from last year’s level of performance.

    Yes, some guy will show a nice injury recovery. But vitually every year a starter has a season-ending injury before the regular season starts.  (you’ve ignored Montario as a potential huge asset, inducing me to make immature chicken clucking noises).

    Luck = opportunity meeting preparation. Luck will be Heckert prepared for the Rams getting itchy on draft day and getting a player he wanted and another second rounder, and then making good picks in top rounds that quickly raise the team level. That’s Ernie Accorsi luck, scouting the USFL closely and as it folds hitting the motherlode – Mack, Minniefield, Fike, Mike Johnson, etc. -  while other FOs were caught flat-footed. Get lucky Browns, a.k.a., be smart, prepared and ready to go.

  • http://twitter.com/oribiasi oribiasi

    Fortuna audaces iuvat.  We are definitely not bold or prepared or anything approaching those adjectives.

    Therefore, I don’t see Fortuna smiling on the Browns in 2012. 

    Let me take that back; she will likely be smiling in laughter at Shurmur’s antics.

  • steve-o

    We won a couple games too many last year to have luck for next season.

  • dan

    Maybe the Browns were just bad last year. If the premise of this post is to show that they were also unlucky, I don’t think that has been proven. You cite four players with injuries, and only two of those players (Hillis and Steinbach) had been expected to be major contributors. Jackson and Bernard would have been nice to have as well, but is this an unusual number of injuries or did the injuries hit unusually important players? I don’t see that. Look at what happened to Houston last year, losing its starting QB one week and backup the next, right when they were in the hunt for the top seed in the playoffs. That’s unlucky. Last year the Browns seemed luckier on the injury front then they had been in other years. And yes, there were some unlucky plays – like the long snap that hit the lineman’s leg on what should have been a go-ahead field goal – but there were lucky plays as well, like the whole end of the Miami game. Maybe last year was a lucky season, and this year will be an unlucky one. I just don’t see the evidence that the Browns were unlucky compared to a normal NFL team last year.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    I’m not into corn myself but I feel ya!

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Agree for the most part the problem is the Browns definition of stability is borderline boring.  By this I mean ONLY building through the draft.  I will continue to believe that by completely, well almost, bypassing free agency that they are lengthening the time it takes to turn the Titanic away from the ice berg.  I don’t mean signing a player to an absurd contract but I also don’t mean signing a FA like Frostee Rucker who wasn’t good enough for Cincinnati.  They did it last year when they brought in a Ravens cast-off for the OL.  Meanwhile Baltimore adds McKinnie and Gurode.

  • Max

    without reading the article, and in direct response to your question: If the Browns had some luck, it would be proof the Mayans were right and we would all be swallowed up by liquid hot magma shortly thereafter

  • Smitzchas

    I think the team has to get a little more out of Norwood. I went back and watched every game from last year with a open mind. McCoy is not that bad… Most of his throws are on the run or jumping in the air to throw over a incoming missile. When he has time to plant his feet,,, He makes accurate throws. Still, I like weedon at #37.

  • Henry Brown

    McKinnie and Gurode suck. There are at least 5 RTs we could take in the draft that would be better than McKinnie and several OGs better than Gurode. Those guys are old, injured and overpriced. The only FA worth spending a lot of money on was Mario Williams and he’s not worth 100 mil. Frostee Rucker is actually a great signing for us. He’s a noted run stopping DE which is exactly what this D needs. I also think you’re overlooking that we resign our own FAs. You think Joe Thomas wouldn’t mind making millions playing for his favorite team, the Packers? We pay the guys who have proven it playing for us, which is better than overpaying for other people’s scraps.

  • Henry Brown

    The Browns were bad last year but not because they didn’t have the talent to stay on the field most games, they were bad because they were young, inexperienced and confused a lot of the time. Despite that, they were competitive in at least 12 games which should equate to more wins as they become more competent at their position. For the last decade we’ve seen teams who have been over matched or underwhelming in effort. You can say neither about last years Browns. They just need more time to learn and gel as a team while upgrading some key positions.

  • saggy

    i’m actually kinda sick of the “Greg Little didn’t play football for a year” stuff.  He practiced with the practice squad – if not the 1st or second team during his senior year.  it isn’t like this guy was on a deserted island – he had access to one of the top-10 college sports departments in the country. He was well-prepared for this season.  he just drops balls, period.  let’s stop making excuses and see if he improves this season or not; because i DON’T want to hear the same argument extrapolated to year-2 status.

  • Mansoor Khan

    07 was a year where the Browns had luck. If I remember right, they didn’t lose anyone to injury on the offensive side.

  • dan

    Young, inexperienced, and confused I’ll agree with.  But none of those equate to unlucky.  In fact, if you look at the health of Jackson, Sheard, Taylor, Rubin and Haden, I’d say the team was actually lucky to never miss significant time from any of its top 5 defensive players.  What if the Browns are unlucky this coming year?  They’ll still be young, inexperienced, and confused, but unlucky to boot would mean. . . .

  • hanover_fist

    As far as I know, he only broke his hand in the accident, so hopefully it won’t affect his game.

  • Ritz

    I the the Browns were lucky they has such an easy schedule last year. A tough schedule and they might just have a top 2 pick… But you know, I guess that does make the Browns unlucky.

  • Ritz

    * I think

  • Henry Brown

    I agree, they were not unlucky and health was not bad at all last year. Injuries are a fact of life in the NFL and can’t be an excuse. If we are “unlucky” this year it would mean…Barkley in 2013?

  • BrownsFanBrad

    Is Bernard still on the roster?

  • Josh Frisbie

    Ok well genius practice speed and game speed are 2 different things. And well prepared? Then not only did he miss a year of football, he had a short training camp or did u forget about the lock out? So well prepared is a far stretch. He had 14 drops as a rookie an still had over 700 yards. Little will be just fine an I would say its a very valid arguement