May 22, 2013

NBA Lottery Odds Serve As Cruel Reminder of How Unlucky Cavaliers Could End Up

May 4, 2012 by 68 Comments

I mentioned this last season, but I want to reiterate this point again this season…

I hate the ESPN NBA Draft Lottery Machine. All it does is reinforce just how cruel the NBA lottery can be. You have a terrible team coming off a tough and frustrating season, and the only thing that can lift your spirits is the ability to draft a phenomenal young talent who can help reshape your franchise.

That’s not how it always works, though. Instead, you might see a borderline playoff team like Milwaukee or Houston jump into the top 3, bolstering their already modestly talented rosters while leaving the hurting franchises to lick their wounds while picking up only slightly better than moderately talented players. Hey, there’s always next year, right?

Of course, a little optimism goes a long way. After all, as Brendan Bowers points out over at Cleveland.com, the Cavaliers have pretty good odds of becoming the first team since the 1993 Orlando Magic to win the top pick in the lottery in back to back seasons:

The Cavaliers will look to do specifically that on May 30th, however, and they’ll do so with a 13.8 percent chance of picking first again this season. Markedly better than the 1.5 percent number Orlando cashed in on just about twenty years ago, with the potential for a similar Point Guard and Center combination in Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis looming in the balance. As a result of all that tanking, the Cavaliers currently have the third best chance of any team since Orlando to win the Lottery in successive seasons.

So with Brendan’s positivity in the back of my mind, I decided to see just how easily the Cavaliers can win the lottery this season. The results did not turn out as I was hoping.

Last year, when the Cavaliers had the #2 and #8 spots in the lottery, it took me 7 attempts for the Cavaliers to win the top spot. With the Cavaliers sitting at #3 this year and holding just a 13.8% at the top pick, I braced myself for an even longer wait.

My first attempt saw the Washington Wizards win the top pick and take Anthony Davis. Charlotte was next, taking Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Cleveland came in 3rd and took Bradley Beal. Ok, not a bad start to this thing.

My 2nd attempt gave the top pick to the Sacramento Kings, who took Davis. In fact, all 50 attempts had the first pick taking Davis no matter what, so I’m going to stop repeating that point. If a team picked first, they took Anthony Davis. So Sacramento won the lottery, and Cleveland came in 2nd and took MKG. Feeling even better.

My 3rd attempt was a setback. The Brooklyn Nets won the lottery. Washington took MKG second, and Charlotte took Beal 3rd. This left the Cavaliers at #4 and ESPN has them taking Andre Drummond over Harrison Barnes. I’m not crazy about either player, but I would definitely take Barnes over Drummond. This is the first attempt I’m not happy with (a feeling I would soon get used to).

Finally, on my 4th attempt, the Cavaliers. At 13.8% odds, the Cavaliers should win the top spot roughly every 7 attempts or so. I’m way ahead of schedule here, and I’m really liking the way this lottery machine is panning out so far.

Instead, that was the best I would feel in this. It would also be the last time the Cavaliers won the lottery in my trial of 50 attempts. That’s right, despite having 13.8% odds of winning the lottery, I only achieved that outcome 2% of the times. Houston, who was the best team to miss the playoffs and thus has the lowest odds of winning, won the same number of times as the Cavaliers.

Toronto, the team who served as Cavalier kryptonite this year and ended up with the #8 spot in the lottery, won the top pick 8 times. So despite their 3.5% odds of winning, they achieved that goal 16% of the times in my limited trial. New Orleans, the team tied in record with the Cavaliers, won it 7 times. Sacramento, who beat the Lakers on the last night of the season to drop below Cleveland and New Orleans in the lottery standings, won it 8 times. Charlotte, the team with the best odds, won it 10 times.

So what was the final breakdown of the Cavaliers’ results in this trial? Surely, since they missed the #1 pick so many times they had a bunch of 2nd picks and MKG picks, right? Did I mention yet how much I hate the lottery machine?

The Cavaliers earned the top pick just once, the second pick 6 times, the third pick 7 times, the fourth pick 19 times, the fifth pick 12 times, and the absolute worst case scenario sixth pick 5 times. That’s right, the Cavaliers only picked in the top 3 a total of 14 times out of 50 scenarios.

As for the players the draft lottery had them taking in the 50 attempts, as previously mentioned, the Cavaliers only got Anthony Davis once (2%). They selected my next favorite pick, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 7 times (14%). I’ve mentioned this before, but there are only 3 players I absolutely covet in this draft. The third one is Bradley Beal, and the Cavaliers got him a respectable 17 times (34%). The Cavaliers managed to land Davis, MKG, or Beal a total of 25 times, or exactly 50% of the trials. That sounds decent, but when you consider the Cavaliers are in 3rd position, that becomes a little more disheartening.

The Cavaliers took Andre Drummond the most (20 times total). For a team that needs scoring from the wings so desperately, a luxury pick like Drummond (and I use the word ‘luxury’ very lightly here) is less than desirable for my idea of how to rebuild this team. The Cavaliers took Harrison Barnes just 5 times out of the 50 scenarios. He might not be the player some thought he would be, but he’s certainly a much bigger need than Drummond.

So what are we to learn from this? Probably not much. You can pull these scenarios 500 million times, and the results still won’t mean anything. The only thing that matters is that one time the numbers are run. At that point, the results are real and statistics don’t mean anything.

Also, just because the ESPN Lottery Machine says the Cavaliers will take Drummond over Barnes or the Hornets would take Thomas Robinson over MKG, that doesn’t mean that’s what would actually happen. Trying to pre-determine how this will shake out is next to impossible.

So take these results with a grain of salt. It was created to allow fans to have fun playing with the different scenarios and seeing how hard (or easy if you’re a Toronto fan, evidently) it is to have your favorite team win the top pick.

And if you do believe these results are telling us something, then my advice would be to take solace in the fact that Nick Gilbert will likely be representing the team once again and I will be nowhere near the lottery. With Nick Gilbert’s good luck charm aura, maybe we have nothing to fear. What’s not to like?

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  • Kiddicus

    It’s cute how you think the pick isn’t going to the Nets

  • Harv 21

    “So what are we to learn from this?”

    That Andrew has an impressive pain threshold. 50 times? Dude, stay away from Vegas. 

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Andrew Schnitkey

    Well, that or I was desperate for something to write about. I hate this stretch of the season between the end of the season and the draft lottery. It was a lot more fun when the Cavaliers were in the playoffs. 

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    The top spot would be unreal but I’d be just fine with a top three as well.  Honestly even in a worst case scenario picking #6 the Cavaliers will be able to add a solid contributor it just won’t be the guy most people probably desire.  Judging from alot of the comments it’s seems like there is far from a consensus top six anyways but thankfully this draft is deep unlike last year. 

  • mgbode

    I’m less worried about the pick this year.  There are more quality picks and we are guaranteed a top6 selection.   We still need to make the correct pick and that gets harder the lower we go, but there are definitely 6 good choices in this draft.

    plus, if everyone on every team is healthy, do you really think we are any worse than the 6th worst team?  I don’t, so it honestly wouldn’t bother me as much as it probably should (getting Kyrie Irving in a 1-elite-player draft definitely helps that mindset).

  • Chucky Brown

    Perry Jones>Barnes>Drummond

  • 5KMD

    I think the draft machine is fine for the first part of your task, figuring the odds for getting a certain pick in somewhat real life.

    However, assigning picks to these spots is pointless, at least after the top 2-3. That’s what the GMs are for.

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    after i clicked your link to espn, the next two times i clicked ‘play lottery’ it came up cavs.
    so i’m good.  
    quitting now.

  • cmm13

    /Orlando Magic’d

  • Jaker

    May 30th is a ways a way boys. Lets not get super hyped until then.

    As much as it would go against convential wisdom, I would take Barnes over Beal for a few reason. 1- Friend of Kyrie, any reason for Kyrie to stay around is good for me. 2- SFs are harder to find than SGs, especially in this draft. at the 24 spot, we might be able to move up a few spots(having 2 2nd rounders helps this) and take Dion Waiters, who will be a starting SG in the NBA. I’d rather go Barnes and Waiters over Beal and whoevers left in the 20′s. 3- I think everyone is overreacting about Barnes. He’s a terrific shooter, exceptional driver, solid defender, very good rebounder and an EXCELLENT team player/lockerroom presence. This IS the guy we want, yet his only knack is not having the killer instinct in college. Byron Scott is the perfect coach for him, and I would love to see him in Wine and Gold.

    I have been a fan of the Barnes and Waiters haul for quite some time now, and I think you guys should be too. Irving, Waiters, Barnes, Thompson, Vjao, bench-Gee, Harris, Samuels, Sloan, Casspi, Henry Sims(second round Center from Gtown) is a great start for the youngest team in the NBA.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    I wouldn’t be upset with Barnes but he’s not my first choice, second or possibly third.  MKG was the guy I wanted initially then I leaned more towards Beal.  MKG was an even closer friend with Irving and plays SF too.  There’s something about Barnes that bothers me.  A year ago actually a year and a half ago he was a player I really liked but from the games I saw him play he tended to disappear.  He would rather be a shooting guard then a 6’8″ 210 lb. forward.  In the tournament he really struggled especially when Kendall Marshall got hurt.  I don’t know.

    Not familiar with Waiters but for me it depends on who is drafted first for the Cavaliers and who is left.  Initially I’m leaning towards a dynamic athletic player like MKG or Beal first then some frontcourt help later possibly a big man.  Or vice versa if the Cavaliers aren’t in a position to draft either MKG or Beal. I’d be more then happy with Tyler Zeller then a wing compliment later. 

    I’m hoping Harris, Sloan and Casspi still aren’t on the team a year from now or I should say I’m hoping they aren’t needed to be on the team.

  • mgbode

    and you have identified the 3 most likely to bust picks in the top10.  well done.

  • mgbode

    and you have identified the 3 most likely to bust picks in the top10.  well done.

  • mgbode

    my preferred choices would be MKG+T.Ross, but I wouldn’t be upset if we ended up with Barnes+Waiters (I like Jenkins too and we could use the shooting).

    I’d rather have Beal than Barnes though.  He’s a Wade-style player who fills up the stat sheet, gets to the FT line, and plays both ends extremely well.

  • mgbode

    my preferred choices would be MKG+T.Ross, but I wouldn’t be upset if we ended up with Barnes+Waiters (I like Jenkins too and we could use the shooting).

    I’d rather have Beal than Barnes though.  He’s a Wade-style player who fills up the stat sheet, gets to the FT line, and plays both ends extremely well.

  • Chucky Brown

    who would you prefer at 6?

  • 5KMD

    Jaker,

    Please let me know what you have that makes you say he is an EXCELLENT team player. I’ve heard/read the complete opposite ever since he skyped his college choice to UNC without first telling Duke and others he was turning them down.

    Kid has always been concerned about his “brand” and the comprisons to LBJ are eerie. Except for the talent of course.

  • mgbode

    My Cavs board:

    1. A.Davis
    2. MKG
    3. Beal
    4. J.Lamb / Barnes
    6. T.Robinson

    And, I am not even saying that any of those would necessarily be terrible picks.  They are just the guys who seem like they have a high bust rate.  If they hit, they also have incredibly high ceilings.

  • mgbode

    And, I think I need #4/5 slots to be a tie.  I keep going back and forth of who really is better and a better fit for the Cavs.

  • http://www.waitingfornextyear.com Andrew Schnitkey

    My board is pretty identical. I probably like Barnes slightly more than Lamb, but it’s real close. 

  • Chucky Brown

    personally, I think Jones may have been misused in College and has untapped potential
    and
    my list wasnt all inclusive, just my hierarchy as it related to those 3 in general. Id prefer Lamb over Drummond, I am not enthused in any way about the possibility of adding Drummond at any pick

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    I almost asked the very same ? except I didn’t feel like possibly getting into it.  Unless you personally know a player all you are doing is relying on second hand information.  This is a 50/50 proposition in my book.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Pretty close to what I’d have in fact the first 3 would be the same:

    Davis, Gilchrist, Beal but at #4 I’m going with Tyler Zeller, #5 Robinson and #6 Barnes. 

    I like Jeremy Lamb and frankly I didn’t see enough of him but he’s the kind of guard that I’m leary of after being stuck with the Gibsons and Parkers of the world.  He may be more dynamic then I remember but for me he’s a shooter, jump shooter predominantly.  I’d rather have some of those other SGs mentioned around here later in round one.

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    read my mind.  including the not really wanting to get into it.  :)

  • Jaker

    I love MKG, especially for us (I know all about his years before they closed down St. Pats), but in this scenario, I am assuming that Davis and MKG are both gone. And yeah about the bench… its just a start

  • BrownsFanSF

    First two NBA mock drafts that pop up on google have Drummond as a top three pick.  I agree with everyone here, I just don’t see “it” from him.

    Apparently a lot of mock drafters think NBA GMs like Drummond though.  One even had him going before MKG.

    (it’s also possible these people have no idea what they are talking about)

  • Jaker

    I like all those guys as well. Especially Beal. This is a deep draft where hopefully the Cavs can get two studs. I just have a feeling that in the right scenario, Barnes can be a huge talent. Right scenario being a scenario with a solid PG.

  • Jaker

    that’s very true, but isn’t everything we read on here, let alone the internet, second hand info? Because if that’s the case, why do we even bother talking about this?

    the reason=we like to believe that some of these players, the ones that will come to Cleveland, will be a part of the first championship team since ’64, when my father was just a child. so with that being said, we want the players to be the right players. everyone has their opinions, Im just sharing mine.

  • Steve-o

    I’m greedy. I want the unibrow. Really good big men are hard to find. We should be able to get a decent wing later, and the odds increase if we can trade up a few slots from 24 with our extra 2nd rd pick and/or cash.

  • Jaker

    You’re right. I remember the one comment about his “brand”, but I never heard it again. Although, I haven’t seen one comparison to LeBron. Not one.

    people who criticize his game don’t bother me, i get those complaints, even though I think that his problems are an easy fix with BScott. but i think the people that criticize his character are the same ones who think RG3 is selfish. And if they think that, then its obvious I won’t agree with them.

    In terms of who says he has high character and great work ethic…
    Paul Banks, Washington Times
    David Kay, The Sports Bank
    Walter Beeken, Draft Express
    NBA Draft Room 
    There are more but I’ve made my point. Each say he’s a Humble, good kid who works his tail off.

    Also, we can’t ignore his relationship with Kyrie (even though MKG would be perfect for us, I think him and Davis will be gone before we pick)

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    There is a very good chance both Davis and MKG will go 1-2 indeed that’s why a couple of those Ws during the season could prove to be costly.  What can you do noone wants to lose on purpose it’s just a terrible irony. 

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Barnes was certainly better when he had Kendall Marshall running the point.  Once Marshall was gone Barnes totally changed the way he played.  The advantage is having Irving.  I’m really conflicted on Barnes because like I said a year and a half ago I thought he was absolutely perfect for the Cavaliers.  He just seemed to regress more then progress last year.  Maybe he stayed a year to long I don’t know.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    It’s just a discussion I have no way of knowing either.

  • JSzar

    It only took me two tries for the Cav’s to receive the #1 overall pick.  Let’s hope that Chris Grant sends his son again for that extra luck. ;)

  • mgbode

    someone is going to see that he is legit 7 feet tall and think that means he’s “a legit 7fter,” which is not the same thing.

  • mgbode

    fair enough, I didn’t like how PJIII played like a poor man’s Josh Smith, but I am not sure if that was his doing or the coaches. 

  • mgbode

    great to see I’m not totally off in the weeds (or at least we both are). 

    one benefit of Barnes I do keep coming back to is that he likely can play either SG or SF whereas J.Lamb is a SG.  that would be my tiebreaker to put Barnes ahead, but I just enjoyed watching Lamb play more.

  • mgbode

    JLamb is only 6’5″ but his arms are ridiculously long, which helps him on defense.  Obviously, he’s going to need to bulk up, but he also seems to have the work ethic where he will become a +defender.

    he’s at his best when curling around picks set for him (ala Richard Jefferson) or spotting up and shooting off a pass.  UConn made him act like Kemba too much this year, which hurt his stats some but probably helped his development as he’ll need to create his own shot in the NBA too.

    He is one of the SGs who can fill the stat sheet (rbs, stls, blks, asts), which is one of the reasons I like him so much (rather than the pure-scorer or defense guys you can get later)

  • mgbode

    while we only finished 1 game back of the Wizards for the 2nd most odds, they went 8-2 in their last 10 games.

    i think if they knew we were going to overtake them for the #2 overall odds down the stretch, John Wall may have caught the flu.  

  • mgbode

    here’s The Atlantic piece about Barnes and his brand:
    http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/04/moneyballer/8911/

  • mgbode

    I think we have a better chance of moving one of our 2nd rounders into the 20s

  • Cl3v3land3r

    Clicked once since it opened, Cavs with first pick!

  • http://twitter.com/tLotTC LotTC

    To show some more useless numbers till the drawings that matters, I also ran it 50 times and got.

    First – 11 times
    Second – 9 times
    Third – 8 times
    Fourth – 8 times
    Fifth – 14 times

    Had a streak of 7 straight #1 picks and wanted to stop there.  Followed that up with 9 consecutive picks in the 4-5 range.

    Isn’t randomness fun.

  • Yup

    I think you can make a case for Lamb over Beal. At least to me. His freakish wing-span for one. Love that for defense. And I think he looks just as good on jumpshots as Beal.

    I am surprised somewhat how safe so many of you want to play this draft. I think because you hit a home run w/Kyrie and a double(double! See what I did there?)’with TT, you absolutely draft for high upside. I think the combo of good guys like Kyrie, TT and the firm hand of Scott allows you to risk taking guys who have been relative under-achievers in college.

    Also, I’m falling off the MKG bandwagon as I fear he’s far more Gerald Wallace than Pippen. You don’t take Gerald Wallace in the Top 5. Ever.

  • mgbode

    my strategy is to always take the BPA (especially top5 pick).  that’s what my list is based on (who I expect to be BPA in 3yrs really).

    I agree you can make a case for JLamb over Beal.  And, before the SEC and NCAA tournies, I was doing just that.  Beal’s overall game won me over, but if we selected Jeremy Lamb with Beal still on the board, I would not be upset with the decision.

    Barnes and Beal will be better as rookies, but I am not so sure Jeremy Lamb won’t be the best player long-term.

  • Mike E

     Barnes isn’t fast enough to defend at the 2, he’d have to play the 3 for sure IMO.

  • Mike E

     Barnes isn’t fast enough to defend at the 2, he’d have to play the 3 for sure IMO.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Yea I don’t know when Kemba Walker was there Lamb benefited greatly so Irving would probably enhance his abilities as well.  I’ve just seen enough one dimensional players for the Cavaliers especially in the backcourt that I’m big on guys who can do more then take jump shots. 

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Agreed he’s a SF not a SG.

  • mgbode

    I don’t think so, but it’s possible.   Even in that scenario though, he can play SG on offense (w/ Gee at SF) and SF on defense.

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